mjt328

What he said. Unless you are drafting in the Top 5-10 picks (or determined to make a trade-up), there is no way a team picking #30 can have a particular guy in mind. I've been watching the draft for 20+ years and it's way too ridiculously unpredictable after the first handful of players. My understanding of Beane's drafting style is that he placed guys into tiers. As our pick gets closer and guys start coming off the board, he makes the determination on whether a trade-up is needed to secure somebody he wants, or if he can stay put or trade-back. Even in Josh Allen's case, I don't believe he was the Bills ONLY target that night. What if the Browns (#1) or Jets (#3) had taken Allen instead? Beane would have wasted trading Cordy Glenn, and then been left with a quarterback he didn't really want. Based on all the stories I have heard regarding the Allen pick, I believe Beane had narrowed things down to 3 QBs he was comfortable drafting, and was confident he could ultimately make the move high enough to land him.

Houston is going to want multiple 1st Round Picks (and probably more) in exchange for Deshaun Watson. It's hard to imagine any franchise making that kind of investment with all the legal issues currently hanging over his head. And those legal issues are unlikely to resolve before draft day, which is only a month away. The Jets are sitting at #2, and have Sam Darnold's 5th Year Option on the table. They need to make their QB decisions now. The Patriots are in a similar situation, although it's possible they miss-out on the top QB prospects without some kind of trade-up. The Dolphins appear to have already committed to Tua for the 2021 season. With all of that said... I wouldn't rule out some kind of mid-season trade, or Watson's status still being in flux at this time next year. So unfortunately, the possibility of Watson eventually landing in Miami or New England isn't really far-fetched.

The revenue loss from 2020 was divided between this year's cap and next. Otherwise every team in the NFL would have been forced to gut their roster like the Saints did, and everyone would have been in deep trouble paying existing contracts. So even if fan attendance gets back to normal this upcoming season, the cap isn't going to jump up crazy in 2022. Assuming the NFL can get back to pre-COVID attendance levels, the big cap increase is going to happen in 2023.

At this point, the Bills are already signing camp bodies to compete for the final roster spots. I wouldn't be certain that Jacob Hollister, Efe Obada or Matt Breida actually make the team after final cuts. I'll be honest. It's been a pretty uneventful and somewhat disappointing free agency. Yeah, I was thrilled we re-signed almost all of the guys I wanted to bring back. But I was really hoping we could get a veteran corner to upgrade on Levi Wallace, another good edge rusher to add into the rotation, and a real threat at tight end. Maybe we are waiting for the post-draft bargain bin, but right now it really appears that Beane is done (with anything other than back-end depth). Hopefully the draft goes well, because it just doesn't appear to be a deep class at our need-positions.

Looking at the roster as it stands, I see about 45-48 players that are pretty much roster locks. Barring trades or surprise cuts, that means we only have 5-8 open roster spots. With a total of 7 picks and the ensuing UDFA signings, I agree that using some of that capitol to move up may be wise. My feeling is that Buffalo's biggest needs are CB, DE and TE, with OG, RB and DT not far behind. I've done numerous mock drafts, and sometimes one of the need positions falls to us at #30. But there are other occasions where BPA is another wide receiver or middle linebacker, which would not be ideal. It will be an interesting draft, and we'll have to wait and see how the board falls.

The Dolphins were the only real threat last year. And they lost their (true) starting QB to free agency. They have a legitimately good roster overall - especially on defense, but I don't see any reason for Miami fans to be optimistic about Tua at this point. He was below average as a rookie, and didn't seem to get better as the season progressed. Without the luxury of Ryan Fitzpatrick come in to save the day, it's unlikely they would have won 10 games. With their playoff hopes on the line and them forced to play Tua the whole 4 quarters, our backups beat them 56-26. Fears about the Patriots are more related to PTSD (from two decades of abuse) than a legitimate concern about their roster. Yes, they added a ton of guys in free agency. And yes, they are getting some defensive starters back from opting out. But for every decent signing (Matthew Judon, Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry), they also added a guys who I can't see making much impact (Jalen Mills, Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor). Consider they finished SIX games behind Buffalo in the standings last year (we only finished two games behind them in 2019). That accounts for over 37% of the season. That's a tough number to catch. The Jets were probably the NFL's worst team last year, so they are at least 2-3 seasons away from making any noise in the division. It's hard not to picture them being better than 2020. But barring them adding Deshaun Watson, this is clearly the start of another rebuild.

Probably because after they come up with a new team name (let's say the Warriors), there will be new push to change the "Washington" part.

The defense was expected to be elite in 2020. They ended up average. I agree that some of this was due to Star Lotulelei opting out, leaving us without a true 1-Tech DT. Some was certainly due to injuries at the linebacker position. Some was due to the new faces on the D-Line, learning how to play together. Yes, we played better overall in the second half of the season. But the Kansas City Chiefs clearly exposed us in the championship game. Our pass rush is not good enough. They couldn't sniff Patrick Mahomes, against a group of mostly backup offensive linemen. Our secondary is too reliant on zone coverage, and we need guys who can do better in 1-on-1 matchups. The Bills need upgrades, or Kansas City is going to crush us again this season.

There needs to be a happy medium. I've never advocated that we splurge on the big name free agents. I'm not saying we should overspend, or mortgage our future. But there are going to be plenty of bargain guys, who are asking for a fair price, who can absolutely help us. The question asked in the OP was whether we should just start looking to the draft. And I believe that would be a huge mistake. It's just like with your personal finances. Smart people know how to save and invest. They make sure not to get deep into debt, and always try to make good decisions with money. But you can also go too far the other way, and become so frugal that you never take advantage of the savings you have created. It's all about balance. There are foolish things we could do, which would do nothing but put us into salary cap problems 2-3 years from now. But there are also safe/reasonable restructures that can be done, which would give us the ability to pull in 1-2 decent vets this season. The Bills are in a position to compete for a Super Bowl now. And we know where we need to improve to take the next step. There is no reason we should go into the 2021 season with the same defensive starting lineup.

The Bills weren't good enough last year to beat the Kansas City Chiefs. It was painfully clear in both matchups. If we are going to have a prayer at winning the Super Bowl in 2021, they are clearly the next hurdle. Thus far, the Bills have made zero upgrades to the starting roster. Nothing to improve the pass rush. Nothing to improve the run defense. Nothing to improve our coverage on the back end. If the season started today, we might as well concede the AFC to Kansas City. Sorry for the brutal honestly. But we aren't good enough to beat them. Smart teams build through the draft. But it would be foolish to expect a massive impact from the incoming class. Look at what we got from A.J. Epenesa last year. Or Ed Oliver as a rookie. It takes years for these guys to be come good NFL players. As I said in another thread, I applaud Brandon Beane for being patient and not splurging on the first wave of free agency. But if he's just going to throw up the white flag and say "sorry, no cap space"... then he is basically content with another season as the runner-up in the AFC and punting the 2021 season away. I'm not in favor of "kicking the can down the road" - so I would be against moves like restructuring Jerry Hughes. But others have pointed out that by simply restructuring Stephon Diggs (who will inevitably get a new contract anyway), we can easily clear $8-10 million in space. This is a player we should plan on keeping for many more years, so it's not mortgaging the future.

The clear weakness last season was on defense. Our biggest need is cornerback. Followed closely by edge rusher. Followed by depth at defensive tackle and linebacker. Any offensive upgrades would be nice, but they certainly aren't our biggest needs. At this point, our offense is almost identical to the one that finished #2 in scoring and #2 in yards last season. The only changes so far are Emmanuel Sanders for John Brown (who missed half the season anyway) and the possible loss of Isaiah McKenzie as our gadget guy.

When I hear the term "one year wonder" - I always think back to Mark Rypien. I still believe the 1991 team was possibly the best roster the Bills ever put on the field. But the Redskins that year (and particularly Rypien) seemed to just have the magic touch. Nobody could stop them that season. They destroyed us in the Super Bowl, and then went back to being mediocre.

I think Beane was very smart to avoid the first wave of free agency. Handing out $10-12 million per year to players like Bud Dupree and Carl Lawson has the potential to create recipe for long-term cap problems, with only marginal payback on the field. But I also think it would be a huge mistake to walk out of free agency without ANY kind of roster upgrades. Especially on defense. Simply put... Our run defense was not good enough last year. Our pass rush was not good enough last year. The AFC title goes through the Kansas City. And even with a pretty healthy roster in the Championship Game, our secondary had no answers for slowing them down. We need to improve on that side of the ball. Unfortunately for us, this is an extremely weak defensive draft. It's a fantastic draft at quarterback and wide receiver (which happen to be our two strongest positions). But there are only a handful of high-level prospects at edge rusher, tackle or cornerback. And it's totally possible all of those guys will be gone by the time we pick at #30. There are still some quality guys on the market who should be willing to sign bargain deals, who can upgrade our defense immediately. At corner, Adoree' Jackson, Kyle Fuller, Richard Sherman or Malcolm Butler would be great #2 options across from Tre White. I would gladly settle for Xavier Rhodes, Quinton Dunbar or Casey Heyward. At pass rusher, I think our best bet is exploring the trade market. But we could still get a decent veteran like Jadeveon Clowney, Melvin Ingram, Carlos Dunlap, Aldon Smith or Justin Houston. I would even be interested in some of the interior guys left like Geno Atkins, Jurrell Casey, N'Damakong Suh or Sheldon Rankins who can contribute in a rotation. One of Beane's primary rules is to NOT go into the draft with a glaring need that must be addressed. Doing so ultimately leads to poor decisions like overdrafting (taking a prospect too early) or wasting valuable resources to trade up. The Bills may not have a "glaring" need in some people's eyes. But we clearly aren't good enough on defense to achieve our goal... which should be to win the Super Bowl THIS SEASON.

Just saw on Twitter. Cynthia Frelund confirmed the big Bills rumor was for a Tight End. But it was not for Zach Ertz. She then gives a clue, saying it was a "giant" rumor. This seems to suggest we were either in the running for Kyle Rudolph (who signed with the Giants) or maybe a trade for Evan Engram.

Sounds like a flexible piece, who will push Reggie Gilliam in the H-Back role. I doubt he is being considered as the starter, and this doesn't stop us from pursuing Zach Ertz.

I guess all the cap estimates for Philadelphia didn't include the Carson Wentz trade. So now the Eagles can play the waiting game, and hope one of the teams up their offer. It's probably a smart play, because the TE cupboard is pretty bare on the free agent market. And outside of Kyle Pitts (who is a Top 10 pick), this draft class isn't very good either.

Hilarious that anyone believes we have a QB controversy on our hands. Just wow. Mitch Trubisky should be an upgrade on Matt Barkley, and gives Jake Fromm another year of development before he hopefully steps into the backup role. Last year, he wasn't even able to practice with the team. This also has the potential to become a nice compensation pick next season. Hopefully Josh Allen doesn't get hurt, but at the least Trubisky can put in a good performance in garbage time and when we sit our starters Week 17-18. He could end up getting another starting spot down the line.

I mentioned the Saints in another thread. They won the Super Bowl back in 2009, right when the team started to hit its stride. For the most part, they were able to keep the core of that team together for about 4 years. Then the big contracts started catching up, and the salary cap started becoming a bigger issue. It started with them letting defensive talent go. But then started trickling over to the O-Line and receivers. In 2014, 2015 and 2016, the Saints were NOT a very good team. They went 7-9 every season in that stretch, and Drew Brees was pretty much carrying the roster by himself. Bills fans only remember them being able to steal Jairus Byrd from us, despite being tight on the cap. They don't remember the other players the Saints had to let go of, or that Byrd was released at the mid-point of his deal. Don't let yourself be fooled. The stupid contracts that New Orleans handed out in 2010-2014 (like Byrd) were the ones that killed their roster. The Saints eventually dug themselves out of cap hell by doing things like trading Jimmy Graham and Brandin Cooks for draft picks, instead of paying them the big bucks. They also did a fantastic job of drafting. The 2016 class was good. And the 2017 class was one of the best draft classes I've seen in the last decade. Those picks were the foundation for them rebuilding the roster, and putting together 4 more strong seasons before Drew Brees ended up retiring. Now the cap has caught up again, and they are being forced to start over. Was it worth it? Who knows. If the Saints had been wiser with their cap dollars, maybe they wouldn't have had that 3-year drop-off from 2014-2016.

The Patriots are not really bad at drafting. They aren't as good as their reputation, but Belichick did a solid job of keeping a good enough team around Tom Brady. He almost never splurged on free agents, which is the point I was trying to make. Is Seattle a serious Super Bowl contender though? I'm not so sure. Russell Wilson is frustrated and complaining that the Seahawks can't give him a decent O-Line, and the defense is trash. The best players on the team outside of Wilson (Jamal Adams and DK Metcalf) are still on rookie contracts. They have no space this season to add players, which is exactly my point. They are in the prime of Wilson's career and can't upgrade the roster around him enough to give them a serious shot at the Super Bowl. Have you seen the list of players the Saints were forced to release? They completely gutted the team to get back to zero. New Orleans has a reputation of being constantly good, but after their 2009 Super Bowl year, they had multiple 7-9 seasons where they missed the playoffs. Look at the 2012, 2014-2016 seasons. They totally wasted Drew Brees in his prime for those years. Why? Because they had to reconstruct the roster to makeup for their cap problems. Byrd's stupid contract was a major reason for that. They were ultimately able to rebuild (mostly through the draft), then make one more 4-year run before Brees called it quits. Was it worth it? They never won another Super Bowl. Sure they could. And maybe they still will. But there are long-term consequences. And maybe Beane believes throwing $10 million per year at Carl Lawson isn't worth the player(s) it will cost him 2-4 years down the line.

It is true the salary cap can often be manipulated, and room can be made to fit certain contracts. GMs do this by either asking a player for a pay cut, or restructuring and pushing the cap-hit into later years. The problem is, eventually players stop being willing to take pay cuts. They want the money they earned. And eventually players reach an age where you simply can't push their cap hits into later seasons. That's when you are forced to start releasing/cutting players, and the quality of your team takes a serious hit. //////// Some fans seem upset that Kansas City is able to be a player in Free Agency this year. But let's take a closer look. The Chiefs were forced to cut both starting tackles (Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz). They have a half dozen free agents who started double-digit games last year, who they cannot re-sign (Sammy Watkins, DeMarcus Robinson, Austin Reiter, Bashaud Breeland, Damien Wilson, Tanoh Kpassagnon). They have also made contract restructures for Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. Yes, they were able to get Joe Thuney in free agency. But his cap hit will only be $5 million this year. Next year's it will be over $17 million. Next year, the cap hit on Mahomes goes from $7 million to $35 million (and his current contract already goes to age 37, so restructuring is going to be difficult). Jones' hit goes from $8 million to $29 million. Kelce's hit goes from $5 million to $9 million. This offseason, the Chiefs are going to be forced to replace some solid/fringe starters and depth across the roster. They still have key pieces, so they should still be among the Super Bowl favorites. But by 2022, they will be forced to make some hard decisions about guys like Tyreek Hill and Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathiu. They won't be able to keep everybody. And that's when the teams nipping at their heels right now (like the Bills) will have a perfect opportunity to overtake them. ////////// Bottom line. You can be a team that pushes all of its chips into the middle of the table (like the Bucs, Chiefs or Rams), and mortgages future years to win a Super Bowl now. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that strategy, and sometimes it works. But eventually the bill comes due, and you will be forced to rebuild the roster from the ground-up. A good example is Seattle, where they are currently struggling to rebuild a contender around Russell Wilson. My feeling is that Brandon Beane wants a team like the Patriots, Steelers or Packers. A team that can be a consistent winner and Super Bowl contender for the duration of their franchise QB's career. These teams usually build through the draft, and then use free agent dollars to retain their own. Or they wait for the bargains to come around after the first wave of free agency is over.

Agree the Bills haven't done anything to improve yet. But I wouldn't exactly consider the Patriots adds "big time" talent. Their best signings were the Tight Ends. Would you even put Jonnu Smith or Hunter Henry in the league's Top 10 tight ends? I'm not sure I would. Nelson Agholar would be our #5 wide receiver.

At this point, the roster is about the same as last year's 13-3 team. - We've basically swapped John Brown for Emmanuel Sanders, and gotten a new punter. - We lost our return guy in Andre Roberts, but Star Lotulelei is coming back after opting out in 2020. - The only starter we may lose is Levi Wallace, and he has been the weakest link on the defense for the last 2-3 seasons. The rest of our free agents are backups who can be replaced with draft picks or on the cheap. It's possible we bring back Wallace. Even if we do that, I think Cornerback is the biggest need on the roster. After that, I would really like to see an upgrade at Tight End, Defensive End, and then possibly Guard and Running Back. It would be nice to get some depth at Defensive Tackle and Linebacker. Bottom line, we are in really good shape.

Some teams value speed more than others. The Chiefs are certainly one of those teams. The Bills seem to value flexibility instead. They want guys who can lineup outside or in the slot, run a slant or a go route, and can block well in the run game. Brown obviously had the deep speed, and could run nice comeback/timing routes. But he wasn't physical and didn't offer as much in the middle of the field. I also question how much of an upgrade (if any) we get from Emmanuel Sanders. But maybe the Bills just see him as a better scheme fit for what they are trying to do? Not really. Between the contract they gave Emmanuel Sanders ($6.5) and the dead money leftover from Brown ($1.6), they maybe saved $1 million. If Brown was playing hardball for money and didn't want a paycut, he wouldn't have settled for such a small offer from the Raiders. The Bills clearly had no interest in bringing him back.

Some of the Bills fans on this board must have PTSD. No doubt that by adding these free agents (most notably Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith), and by getting back some opt outs (most notably Dont'a Hightower, Patrick Chung and Marcus Cannon) the Patriots should absolutely be a BETTER team in 2021. But the difference between the Bills and Patriots last year was a whopping SIX GAMES. We were 13-3. They were 7-9. Our schedules were almost identical. The only exception was that we played the Steelers and Titans, while they played the Ravens and Texans. So technically, Buffalo also had a tougher group of opponents. One of the big questions going into 2020 was whether Tom Brady or Bill Belichick was more responsible for New England's success. I think this question got a pretty definitive answer when the Patriots finished 3rd in the AFC East and Tampa Bay hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. Belichick will always be considered a great coach, and one of the best ever. But he still has a below-average QB with a below-average (even with these additions) offense. They should compete for a Wild Card spot. But I don't see them as a legitimate threat for the AFC East. Also... I notice that Belichick is often praised for his 2008 season, finishing 11-5 with Brady injured. What people forget is that New England's roster went 16-0 the year before. So the loss of Brady accounted for a five game swing between seasons. And the AFC East was absolutely dreadful at that time.

Clearly John Brown's release was about more than just money. His comments after getting cut last week suggested that Buffalo never asked him to take a paycut. And him settling for only $3.75 million guaranteed on the 3rd day of free agency pretty much confirms that. Personally I liked Brown, and don't really see a 33-year-old Emmanuel Sanders as much of an upgrade. Maybe there is more to his injury than fans know about. Maybe the team wants to move away from pure speed guys, and prefers to have more physical guys.