mjt328

Not sure the updated numbers, but Spotrac still has the Eagles $4.8 million over the salary cap. The deadline to get under is 4pm EST. Zach Ertz has a cap hit of $12.4 million. It's pretty much certain that he will not be on their roster by the end of the day. I'm sure lots of teams would be willing to offer a mid/late round pick for Ertz as a player. The issue is also taking on that cap hit. Nobody wants to make a trade for his contract. Which means if the Eagles want any kind of compensation, they need to let other teams negotiate with him on a new deal first.

Hopefully he still has some gas left in the tank, because this was a surprisingly high contract (more than a $6 million cap hit). I figured they were going to eventually land John Brown's replacement for about half that cost, once the market started drying up. This signing seems to be more about the Bills really wanting Emmanuel Sanders, rather than landing a bargain deal. Sanders did always catch my eye back when he was playing for the Steelers, and later the Broncos. But since he got traded to the 49ers and then signed with the Saints, I haven't noticed him making much impact.

Would be an upgrade at cornerback, and a replacement for Andre Roberts.

Which means there will likely be even more veterans released over the next 24 hours. I've noticed some panic on this board, as many of the top free agents get snatched up for big bucks. But you will also notice that cap space is also quickly dwindling away... By Thursday or Friday, I would expect the Bills to start getting involved and landing some bargains.

Look around the NFL every March when free agency opens. This is what non-contenders do with their excess cap space. Overpay to fill holes. New England is coming off a 7-9 season, and they don't have a franchise quarterback. It's not exactly the most attractive destination for free agents, unless they are looking for the highest bidder. They have basically switched places with us. The Bills will be a destination for vets willing to take a paycut to contend for a Super Bowl.

First of all, it's way too early to make any assumptions about how this offseason is going to play out. Several cap experts in the media have shown that with a few restructures (like many other teams are doing), the Bills can still clear another $20-30 million. They have plenty of room to sign additional talent. History has always shown the best bargains in free agency come from either re-signing your own guys, or by waiting until the first wave is over. Second, the Bills were a Hail-Murray away from finishing 14-2 last year, and one game away from the Super Bowl. It's not a fluke. They are close. Clearly the Kansas City Chiefs (who we were 0-2 against) are the next big hurdle, and we need to make some improvements to get there. But every season is going be a mix of trying to improve your weak areas, while trying to sustain current success. You need to know where to make the additions, and where to make the subtractions. It's not simply one or the other. Third... assuming the Chiefs are the next big hurdle... it's important to recognize that Buffalo's offense was arguably better/equal to the Chiefs last year. We scored more points than Kansas City, finishing #2 in scoring behind the Packers. We were also only 20 yards per game behind Kansas City (also finishing #2). So although I agree that steps should be taken to improve the run game, we need to be very careful not to upset what is working. And overhauling the O-Line is a recipe for possibly taking a step back in pass blocking... and ruining what worked well in 2020. I think a better strategy is to focus this offseason on improving the defense, which finished right in the middle of the NFL. We were 16th in scoring defense and 14th in yards allowed per game. We struggled to stop the run. Our pass rush was inconsistent. And we had no answers for the Chiefs receiving weapons in either game we played them. In my opinion, keeping continuity along the O-Line is a great strategy by Brandon Beane. He can still aim for upgrades on our running backs or at left guard. But at least now he's not trying to fill holes left by guys actually playing well.

The Bills offense finished #2 in the NFL in scoring last year, with 31.3 points per game (Green Bay was first with 31.8 points). Yes. Our O-Line struggled to open holes in the run game. But they were also phenomenal in pass blocking, and giving Josh Allen plenty of time in the pocket. In my mind, this goes back to the day we hired Rex Ryan. At the time, our defense was among the best in the league. In an effort to make our Top 5 unit into the #1 defense in the entire league, Ryan made a bunch of unnecessary scheme changes. And ultimately, he ended up destroying what was already working. I understand the desire to be great at both running AND passing. But is it really worth blowing up the #2 offense in the NFL, just so we can HOPE to improve our run blocking? I've got no problem if Brandon Beane wants to add more offensive linemen or running backs in hopes of improving the rushing attack (we still have the rest of free agency and the draft). At the very least, our blocking should be as good as last season. And that's a good thing.

There are some people on this board who clearly don't understand how NFL contracts work. The Saints aren't avoiding the salary cap, or doing anything brilliant/genius that other teams can't do. Taysom Hill's contract is basically a 1 year deal, with the cap hit spread over two seasons. About $128 million in his contract is Monopoly money. It's fake and he will never see it. If the Saints decide to keep him around past 2021, the current contract will be voided and renegotiated. And if he's not brought back, they will have $8 million in dead money. So far this offseason, the Saints have been forced to release about 8 contracted players (mostly starters) from their roster. That isn't counting the retirement of Drew Brees, or the multiple free agents they will be unable to re-sign. They were also forced to restructure the contracts of another half-dozen players on the team, and needed to franchise tag Marcus Williams to keep him on the roster (instead of giving him a long-term deal). All of this was done just to keep them from having a negative cap number when the league year starts Wednesday afternoon. They still have no money to sign new players, and have pretty much exhausted their ability to restructure existing contracts. At the end of the day, the Saints were able to extend their window as a contender until Brees finally called it quits. They did this through a mix of excellent drafting and pushing back the cap hits on contracts. No doubt it was a very smart strategy by their front office. But the idea it was never going to catch up with them is nonsense.

Not true. It does catch up eventually. Even without the cap decrease, the Saints would have been in deep trouble this offseason. Just like how the Rams keep trading away future draft picks, so they can take advantage of today's Super Bowl window. Right now the team looks stacked. But as the years go along, they will basically be depending on late rounders and UDFAs to restock the aging talent.

The vast majority of NFL contracts are backloaded with non-guaranteed money. That way players can boast about landing a 5 year $50 million contract... when in reality they have signed a 3 year $22 million contract, with a team option to cut them before Year 4 without much penalty. Most restructures are basically pushing guaranteed dollars to the back-end of the contract (which was originally setup as bloated fluff). In other words, the team reduces its ability to cut the player. The player gets more guaranteed money. The cap hit for the present year is decreased. As time goes along, the ability to push money down the road becomes more and more difficult. The most obvious example right now is the Saints. They have used these techniques for years. They have also remained competitive for a long-time, mostly because of excellent drafting. But now they are being forced to cut virtually the entire team. The Eagle and Rams are also very guilty of this. Brandon Beane is exceptional at getting free agents with basically 1-2 year contracts (see John Brown, Quinton Jefferson, Mario Addison, etc.), allowing him a ton of flexibility to play around with the cap without these major restructures. Maybe he will change that strategy as our Super Bowl window begins to close, but right now it's a great plan for remaining competitive for many years down the road.

With the salary cap drop (and mass of veterans getting cut around the league), I wonder if the upcoming market for Free Agents is going to be WAY LESS than anybody expected. Legal tampering or not, you have to believe agents are already sending out feelers and getting an idea of what GMs are thinking. We keep hearing that Matt Milano and now Darryl Williams took heavy discounts to stay in Buffalo. We also heard Mitch Morse did the team a huge favor by taking a paycut. But maybe these guys weren't going to get much more on the open market anyway.

Many of their contracts were heavily backloaded. The idea was to keep "kicking the can down the road" and take advantage of their rapidly closing Super Bowl window with Drew Brees. Eventually, that bill was always going to come due. What nobody expected was a $15 million salary cap DROP in 2021. In previous years, the cap has usually risen around $10 million per year. Most NFL general managers figured the 2021 cap would be about $208 million, instead of the $183 they ended up getting. That's a whopping difference of $25 million less. Lots of teams are in deep cap trouble this year, and being forced to cut veteran talent. The Saints basically got hit from both ends in the same offseason. The reduced cap AND the backloaded contracts finally catching up. Considering the regression and possible retirement of Brees, it probably worked out just as well.

There isn't going to be anyone left on the Saints roster by next Wednesday.

This is exactly the situation New England finds itself in right now. There are a few ways to attract free agents: - One is to overpay and be the top-bidder, which the Patriots pretty much refuse to do. - Another is to be a serious Super Bowl contender, which the Patriots no longer are. - Still another is to have a coach that guys enjoy playing for, which Belichick clearly is not. No doubt that Belichick is a great coach. But he's also an @$$, who pushes his players very hard and treats them like expendable chess pieces. The organization itself has a reputation for not paying to keep talent, and instead building up compensatory picks and using the draft to restock the pieces around Tom Brady. That system was great at keeping the winning ball rolling, and helping them constantly get salary cap bargains on veterans desperate for a ring. Now that Brady is gone, it's going to be very hard to get that ball rolling again.

I love John Brown, and I absolutely hate seeing him go. But the more you think about it, this was really a no-brainer decision for the Bills... 1. Prior to Wednesday's moves, the Bills had something around $2-3 million available in salary cap space. Even after restructuring Jerry Hughes and Mitch Morse. That's not even room for one decent starter. 2. Our upcoming free agents include starters Matt Milano, Jon Feliciano, Darryl Williams and Levi Wallace, along with key contributors like Matt Barkley, Andre Roberts, Isaiah McKenzie, Ike Boettger, Ty Nsehke and Josh Norman. 3. Without making some restructures/cuts, this means the Bills had absolutely no cap room to re-sign OR replace ANY of these guys. We fell just short of making the Super Bowl last year. We need to get better, not worse. 4. Wide receiver is easily our deepest position. Gabe Davis was our #4 last year, and appears ready to step into the starting lineup. This made Brown one of the most expendable starters on the roster. Also - looking at our current cap situation - I see no way that Mario Addison makes it past the next couple weeks without either taking a pay cut or getting released. The Bills would save around $8 million by letting him go right now. Obviously Edge Rusher is not our best position. My guess is that Brandon Beane wants to see how Free Agency shakes out before making a move with Addison. But I can't see anyway it doesn't happen, unless we totally strike out on every pass rushing target in F/A.

The Bills have reached the place where they MUST start getting strong returns on their draft picks. Otherwise, we aren't going to be a true contender in this league for long. Jerry Hughes is getting older, and could see a drop-off at any time. Mario Addison is already there, and is highly overpaid. We probably don't have the cap space to make a huge splash in free agency for a pass rusher. We absolutely NEED to get something from AJ Epenesa on the D-Line. Next to him in the middle, this is the time for Ed Oliver to start playing like an impact Top 10 pick at defensive tackle. On the other side of the ball, it's highly unlikely that we can keep both Jon Feliciano and Daryl Williams. Which means it's time for Cody Ford to step up and become a valuable part of the starting unit. One of the marks of truly great teams... is the ability to let starters walk in free agency, and then replace them with a younger option... with little to no drop-off in play.

The problem with Tremaine Edmunds is that Buffalo may never get the full return on his development. By the time he finally blossoms into a true Pro-Bowl player and difference maker, he may be playing for a different team. You ideally need your draft picks to start making an impact by late in Year 2 or early Year 3. Especially those guys drafted in the 1st Round. The front office has until May 3 to make the decision on picking up Edmunds 5th Year Option. Which is a financial commitment they may not want to make, considering all of his ups and downs. If the team decides to decline the options on Edmunds (very possible), then he's a free agent in 2022.

When you make it to the AFC Championship game, it's probably smart to keep as much continuity as possible. Figure out why you fell short against the Chiefs... make some tweaks... and go for it all in 2021.

If the rumblings around the league are true, this was a smart move by Mitch Morse. Reports are saying that a lot of veterans are in danger of being cut this offseason. And there probably won't be much cap space for them to get big bucks by re-signing with someone else. In other words, many of these guys are going to be forced into pay cuts... whether they like it or not.

Don't forget the Bills also had Marshawn Lynch, who some consider a future Hall of Famer.

Sounds like the smart play this offseason will be to sit-back... wait until the bottom-feeders blow their cap space on second-contract guys hoping for a big payday... then swoop in and get bargain discounts on the vets who became cap casualties.

It's ridiculous to me how people refuse to be thankful for their own blessings. Instead, they look with envy and hatred at anyone with more. Low income Americans with cellphones, high speed Internet, two vehicles and a nice house consider themselves poor, despite having more than 75% of the world. The Middle Class with everything they could ever need, complain that athletes are making millions for playing a game. Pro athletes who are making millions of dollars per year, think the owners are selfish for not wanting to cough up more of their profits. The NFL Players Association signed a very generous contract, making the salary cap dependent on revenue around the league. If the owners are taking a hit from the lack of attendance, then the players take a hit too. End of story. The vets who get cut can always sign for less.

Despite what people think, the Bills front office is not trying to make a carbon-copy of the Carolina Panthers. With our GM and HC both from that organization, there are obviously going to be similarities. But over the years they have learned what works and what doesn't. They are clearly trying to do their own thing here. Josh Allen became a Top 5 quarterback in 2020. That was the main reason for our success on offense. If you don't believe he can replicate that going forward, then yeah.. maybe we were playing over our heads. But personally, I don't see any reason to believe he's going to step back as his career progresses. I've heard many state that Allen is possibly the most physically gifted QB to ever enter the NFL. The question was if he could develop that talent, and he's clearly doing that. On defense, we lack a big-name All-Pro talent on the Front 7. No disagreements there. But I would also say that Buffalo's secondary (Tre White, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde) has more talent than anything Sean McDermott had on his defense in Carolina. Very few teams can boast more than 3-4 elite guys on their roster. The Chiefs are considered the absolute class of the league, and they basically have Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and maybe Chris Jones that you can put in that elite category. The Bucs won the Super Bowl. Their elite guys are basically Tom Brady, and maybe Mike Evans and Shaq Barrett. The Bills have Allen, Stephon Diggs and Tre White as elite players. Like Kansas City and Tampa, we have very few holes, solid/good starters at most positions and strong depth on the sideline. Bottom line, we really aren't far behind anyone in the NFL in talent.

No way to tell until the draft is happening, and we get a better idea of where prospects are going. Good GMs utilize all of the tools in their belt, and don't push themselves into a corner with a "single philosophy" on roster construction. Sometimes trading up is the best move. Sometimes trading down is better. Sometimes you stay put. I recall when Marv Levy was hired as GM, and he spoke about good teams only building through the draft. He was very reluctant to participate in Free Agency or retain guys with expiring contracts (but ironically still managed to overpay tremendously for average players). Buddy Nix pretty much refused to consider a trade up in the draft, and we always seemed to be 1-2 picks away from getting that true difference maker.

After this offseason, the Bills will probably have Top 5 paid (at their position) players in Josh Allen, Tre White and Mitch Morse. It's possible they can restructure Morse, but then I imagine Stephon Diggs will start pushing for a new contract. Dion Dawkins sits just outside the Top 10 on offensive tackles. Jordan Poyer is just outside the Top 10 on safeties. My point is that our roster, in terms of salary cap, is starting to get a little bit top-heavy. Every team can have a handful of big contracts. But after your QB and maybe 2-3 other positions, those big contracts are eventually going to start costing talent everywhere else. Would you rather have a roster with several big name Pro-Bowlers, hoping they can make up for big weaknesses at a couple other spots? Or would you rather have a couple Pro-Bowlers, and strong depth across the board? 1 good player + 2 below average players? Or 3 good players. In my opinion, the latter is a better recipe for consistent/long-term success. The Bills were close this year. Their offseason plan should be improving a few places, without upsetting what worked in 2020. If JJ Watt costs them a combination of Matt Milano, Darryl Williams, Jon Feliciano, or forces them to cut guys who have contributed... he's not worth it.