mjt328

After this offseason, the Bills will probably have Top 5 paid (at their position) players in Josh Allen, Tre White and Mitch Morse. It's possible they can restructure Morse, but then I imagine Stephon Diggs will start pushing for a new contract. Dion Dawkins sits just outside the Top 10 on offensive tackles. Jordan Poyer is just outside the Top 10 on safeties. My point is that our roster, in terms of salary cap, is starting to get a little bit top-heavy. Every team can have a handful of big contracts. But after your QB and maybe 2-3 other positions, those big contracts are eventually going to start costing talent everywhere else. Would you rather have a roster with several big name Pro-Bowlers, hoping they can make up for big weaknesses at a couple other spots? Or would you rather have a couple Pro-Bowlers, and strong depth across the board? 1 good player + 2 below average players? Or 3 good players. In my opinion, the latter is a better recipe for consistent/long-term success. The Bills were close this year. Their offseason plan should be improving a few places, without upsetting what worked in 2020. If JJ Watt costs them a combination of Matt Milano, Darryl Williams, Jon Feliciano, or forces them to cut guys who have contributed... he's not worth it.

I'm basing it on him being 32 at the start of next season, along with him missing 13 games in 2016, 11 games in 2017 and 8 games in 2019. In the 4 seasons prior to when the injuries starting hitting, Watt had 69 total sacks. In the last 5 seasons since the injuries started, he's got 26.5 total sacks. I realize that pass rushing is about total pressure, and not just about sacks. But the ELITE guys usually get to the QB and finish the job. We already have a pretty good DE (Jerry Hughes) who causes lots of pressure, but isn't great at actually sacking the quarterback. Watt would certainly be an upgrade over Mario Addison. But I don't believe he's among the elite guys anymore, and isn't worth getting into a bidding war over... especially considering the cap issues we have at other places on the team.

I'm not sure JJ Watt is playing at that elite level now. He was great as a younger player, but injuries have really taken their toll.

Ken Dorsey is not stupid. He understands that Brian Daboll will likely be with the Bills one more season, and then he will be promoted to the Offensive Coordinator in Buffalo. So his decision is to pick up his family, move to Seattle and run a team with inferior offensive weapons 😁, just so he can get the promotion 12 months early? Or stick around with a Super Bowl contender for another season, and then take over in 2022?

This offseason has the potential to have LOTS of quarterback moves. So it's really hard to answer that question until Free Agency has finished. First you have the aging vets finishing up their careers: - Phillip Rivers has officially retired - Drew Brees hasn't announced, but all the rumors say he's done - Ben Roethlisberger hasn't given an indication either, but he definitely needs to Then you have the vets nearing the ends of their current contracts: - Dak Prescott, Mitch Trubisky and Cam Newton are all free agents in 2021 - Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater could be easily cut in the offseason with very little dead-cap Then you have the guys forcing the way out with their current teams: - The Texans are a mess and Deshaun Watson is likely to formally request a trade - It's hard to imagine Carson Wentz coming back to Philly, regardless of his contract That's not even getting into the trade rumors surrounding Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan. Or the fact that Tom Brady and Alex Smith are still old, and their teams could be looking for a QB of the future. Or the bizarre situation involving Tua Tagovailoa, and whether the Dolphins actually want him to be their guy. My count is that New England, New York, Indianapolis and Jacksonville will absolutely be in the market for a new QB this offseason. Pittsburgh, Houston, Washington, Chicago and New Orleans are almost certain to join that list. Depending on how things shake out, it's possible that Miami, Las Vegas, Dallas, Detroit, Atlanta and San Francisco could be as well. That comes to 15 teams (almost half of the league!!!!) with questionable situations at the most important position.

I was very interested in seeing how Kansas City came out Sunday against the Browns. Despite their 14-2 record, the Chiefs have been barely squeaking by over the last 2+ months. Each week they go through long stretches where they seem out of sync, and struggle to put points on the board. For a team that has a reputation for being "totally unstoppable" on offense, they haven't managed a double-digit victory since November 1st (against the Jets). My initial thought was that maybe the Chiefs were just coasting through games, and could pretty much turn it on whenever necessary. Once they hit the postseason, they would start rolling again. But even in the Divisional Playoff round, they started very strong... then started settling for field goals, and gradually let the Browns back into the game. That was before Patrick Mahomes went out of the game, so no excuses there. No doubt the Chiefs are currently among the top 3 teams in the NFL (along with the Bills and Packers). And they have a great chance of repeating as Super Bowl Champions. But I don't agree with the idea that Kansas City is in some kind of elite tier over the rest of the NFL. Just a few weeks ago, they struggled badly to defeat the 4-12 Atlanta Falcons. I'm 100% convinced that Josh Allen's "slump" during weeks 5-8 was due to his shoulder injury (which got almost no attention from the media). The Bills have also done much better against the run since Matt Milano returned, and Tremaine Edmunds healed up. The Bills have improved drastically as a team since that game in Week 6, while the Chiefs have seemingly gone the opposite direction. Don't forget that Andy Reid also has a 2-5 record in conference championship games.

I've noticed, and figured it had something to do with Isaiah McKenzie's injury. He exploded for a career day against the Dolphins in Week 17. Then he almost completely disappeared from our offense. If it's not due to injury, then my guess is that something on film (against the Colts and Ravens) suggested to Daboll that we weren't going have much success with misdirection plays and jet sweeps.

Actually he didn't. Tom Brady agreed to a lower contract, while the Patriots were investing in his health company TB12. People think Brady was being unselfish and taking less money, so his team could afford better players under the salary cap. In reality, this was just another questionable tactic by the New England Patriots organization to get around the league rules.

Pretty much every game can be defined by a handful of plays. Even blowouts start 0-0, and a few early plays start pulling the momentum towards one team. The thing I find interesting is that Baltimore and Buffalo both missed 2 field goals. The quarterbacks also both missed wide open deep throws, which likely would have gone for touchdowns. Both defenses were tough, and yards were not easy to come by. The difference in the game was that when Buffalo got down into the Red Zone in the 3rd Quarter, they punched it into the endzone. When the Ravens did the same, they threw a pick-6.

If what you are saying is true, there would be A LOT more uncertainty and nervousness this morning about Patrick Mahomes playing next week. Less than 24 hours ago, following the on-field collision, Mahomes was unable to stand on his own and had a dazed look in his eyes. The Chiefs later confirmed to CBS reporters that he indeed suffered a concussion, and declared him out... in the midst of a close playoff game. Andy Reid suggested after the game that Mahomes "passed" concussion protocols, even though that would be impossible so soon. The NFL requires a 5-step process of gradually increasing activity during the week, while being monitored by doctors. The average length of being out for a concussion is 19 DAYS. Following this train of logic, the only person on this planet with the slightest clue whether Mahomes can play is the neurologist examining him. Not the Chiefs staff. And even that doctor won't know until the middle of the week, after observing his progress during physical activity. Further more... based on what we've seen with other (non superstar) players in (non championship) games when it comes to concussions, the odds of Mahomes playing on Sunday is extremely low. Yet if you listen to the NFL reporters this morning, most are expecting him to play. Andy Reid clearly expects him to play. Mahomes himself clearly expects to play. The NFL does not care about player safety. They implemented these concussion rules to avoid another lawsuit. But if Mahomes and the Chiefs agree to keep this hush-hush behind the scenes, don't doubt for a second that an "independent" doctor wouldn't let him play. And everyone knows it.

At this point, I really don't care what the fools in the media say. As the year has progressed, Josh Allen has continued to make his critics look stupid. Most have been forced to admit they were wrong about him, but there are still a few holdouts. Some are just trying to get a rise out of Bills fans and should be ignored. Some are just lazy, never watch film and want to credit all of his success to Brian Daboll or Stephon Diggs. I say that we just go out and win some Super Bowls, and check back in with them when Allen's getting his yellow jacket.

The NFL's rules about hiring coaches still in the playoffs was likely a huge factor. Teams realize there are multiple job openings, and they can't just sit around waiting for weeks and weeks to choose their next Head Coach. Otherwise they will end up with the scraps. I'm sure the Chargers really liked Brian Daboll. But they couldn't offer him the job until the Bills were out of the playoffs. Which means they would need to wait at least another week, and possibly another three. And there is no guarantee he would even decide to take the job. I believe it's the same reason Eric Bieniemy was not hired last year.

The Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl champions, and finished with the best record in the NFL. If I was a gambling man, it would be very difficult for me to put money on any other team to win it all. At the same time, I don't understand the narrative that Kansas City is some unstoppable dynasty. They haven't beaten a team by double-digits since November 1. Over the last 2+ months, they have scraped out every game by the skin of their teeth. They seem to go long stretches where that explosive offense looks flat and uninspired. Don't get me wrong. Patrick Mahomes looks like a player who could win multiple rings during his career. But so did Aaron Rodgers, who is still chasing #2 at 37 years old. Russell Wilson will be in his 10th year next season, and still hasn't gotten his second. If the Bills put together a complete game on Sunday, they can certainly walk away with the victory.

These fights were clearly incited by Gov. Andrew Cuomo. There is video evidence that he encouraged Bills fans to go the stadium. He should be removed from office immediately.

In my opinion, a "good" defensive performance requires OUR players to actually make stops. Turnovers. Sacks. Pressure. Tackles. Passes Batted Away. We got no pressure on the QB at any point during the game. We continually missed tackles. We left receivers wide open all over the field. The only turnover we got didn't actually count. The Bills defense failed over and over to get stops on 3rd Downs, and were totally gassed by the 4th Quarter. If you want to just look at the points allowed and say "hey we did pretty good holding them to 24" then fine by me. Personally, I try to look at the game as a whole. And it was only Colts mistakes that kept our defense from allowing 35-40. Yes, mistakes are part of football. Which is why the Bills won. And they did enough on offense to deserve that win. But I completely understand why Saturday's performance is making fans nervous about facing the Baltimore Ravens.

Michael Pittman was open on the 4th Down throw into the endzone. Phillip Rivers just threw the ball a little bit too far. That's not a credit to our defense. That's a mistake by the Colts, which would have given them 17 points in the first half. The Colts only drive of the 3rd Quarter went 14 plays, and finally ended when Rivers threw behind Pittman (wide open again) for what would have certainly been another first down conversion in the Red Zone. Their kicker then proceeded to miss a 33 yard field goal. Once again, this had nothing to do with our defense and everything to do with untimely mistakes by Indy. Sorry. Our defense played poorly, and they are truly a concern going into the Divisional Round. We can thump our chest all day about stopping Jonathan Taylor. We failed to get any pressure on the quarterback, and left guys wide open all over the field. And at the end of the day, the Colts still had 163 yards rushing at 5.4 ypa.

I hate when fans/media criticize calls like this... but only when they have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. How many of these critics were screaming how "bad" the 4th Down decision was BEFORE they missed it? Probably very few. Mike Tomlin played it safe last night with a 4th Down punt. That play ended up killing Pittsburgh's momentum, and ultimately allowed Cleveland to ice the game. Now he's getting roasted for it. But the same people would have blasted Tomlin if he went for it and failed to convert.

The Colts had a better gameplan, and outplayed us for the majority of 4 quarters. But they also made some key mistakes, at very key moments. Phillip Rivers missed very few passes on Saturday. But one was on 4th and Goal. The other was on 3rd Down, just before the missed field goal. They also had very few penalties. But one was on 4th Down, a few plays before the Bills put the ball in the endzone. I don't like using the term "lucky" because the Bills made lots of plays on offense, and capitalized on all of the Colts' errors. But make no mistake. The Bills were very fortunate to escape Sunday with a victory. They were dominated at the line of scrimmage. They weren't sharp in the passing game for most of the 1st Half. They were baited into playing Frank Reich's game, instead of what led them to 13 regular season wins. I can't imagine a team being less than 100% focused in the playoffs. But hopefully the Bills come to play on Saturday. The Ravens have a very similar team to the Colts, and we need to employ a similar strategy to win. Another week of getting dominated at the line of scrimmage, failing to cover Tight Ends, or wasting drives running the ball 3 times in a row into a brick wall, and I don't think we escape with another victory.

Most people believe the Chiefs are the best team in football, outside of Bills/Packers fans and media personalities trying to get attention. They are not being overlooked. Being one of the few teams that: a) Wrapped up their division and #1 seed many weeks ago b) Sat their starters Week 17, and c) Got a first round bye ... there simply hasn't been much to discuss regarding the Chiefs recently. Personally, I do think the Chiefs are the NFL's best team. But I also think they are quite a bit overrated, and very beatable. There are some who act like Kansas City is already a dynasty, with only one Super Bowl trophy under their belts.

On Saturday, I feel like the Bills fell into Frank Reich's trap, and the Colts forced us to play their game instead of ours. Our big advantage over the Colts was the explosive passing game vs. their below-average secondary. No way I could see them matching up well against Josh Allen and our receivers. At the same time, the Colts advantage was along the offensive/defensive lines and controlling the line of scrimmage. The key to the Wild Card game was always going to be whether the Bills could build an early lead, and force the Colts into a heavy passing attack. The longer the game was close, the better it would be for Indianapolis. We never pulled ahead by a decent margin (24-10) until the early 4th Quarter, and then our defense immediately broke down and let them right back into the game. Over this week, our coaching staff needs to determine WHY this happened. Was it the poor field position? Was it the injuries to our receivers? Did our gameplan focus too much on the run game? Did we just fail to execute? Not to say that our offense played poorly. But why did it take so long for things to start clicking? Because the Ravens present a very similar situation. The path to victory is by getting up early, and forcing them into a pass-heavy approach. If they keep this game in the 10-point or less range, it plays to their strengths.

I would be extremely concerned if Stefon Diggs does not play. I think we would be OK without Cole Beasley. However, reports are that both guys practiced yesterday. And Diggs has stated that he 100% will play on Saturday.

The Super Bowl 25 strategy is commonly used when teams are facing offensive powerhouses. It's nothing special or unique. It was actually our strategy back when we played the Chiefs earlier this year. There were two key reasons that gameplan worked for the Giants 30 years ago: 1. The juggernaut Bills passing offense came out ridiculously flat, and played pretty bad for most of the day. 2. The Bills defense continually failed to make tackles on key 3rd downs, constantly letting New York extend drives. Jim Kelly barely cracked 200 yards passing in that game, with zero touchdown passes. We had 12 points at halftime. The week before (in the AFC Championship), we had 41 points at halftime. If our offense (which had 4 eventual Hall of Famers on it), had shown even the slightest signs of life in that game, we could have forced the Giants to abandon the run and rely on the arm of Jeff Hostetler. As it stood, the only thing working for us was Thurman Thomas and we got into a ground battle that didn't favor us in the slightest. The Colts have a good team everywhere. Except in the secondary, where they are below-average and have multiple injuries. This is where the Bills have a major advantage, regardless of Frank Reich's strategy. If Josh Allen and the passing offense come out and play well, the Colts are going to be in big trouble. If they come out and look like Weeks 5-8, then it's very likely this game is tight in the late 4th Quarter.

Setting aside my personal feelings as a Bills fan.... Patrick Mahomes has been playing at this level for 3 full seasons now. He has one MVP under his belt, and will get serious consideration this year. He has also proven himself in the playoffs, leading the Chiefs to a Super Bowl in only his second season. Josh Allen has been playing at an elite level for 1 season, and has never won a playoff game.

Our biggest advantage in this game will be Josh Allen and the passing offense, going against the Colts below-average secondary. The strength of the Colts D is against the run, with their best players (Darius Leonard and Deforest Buckner) right up the middle. Unfortunately for them, we run less than any team in the NFL. The Bills should be able to focus their blocking efforts on Buckner, avoid Leonard and attack the corners. Allen has put up huge numbers recently against much better groups. On the other side, the Colts do have a very-underrated and balanced offense. Their biggest names (Quentin Nelson and Ryan Kelly) are on the line, so they don't exactly have a reputation for being explosive. But they were Top 10 in most categories this year, don't allow many sacks and don't turn the ball over much. Phillip Rivers is still a good QB. Jonathan Taylor can be dangerous. This is a group that can put up 25-30 on pretty much anyone. The key will be for Buffalo to get an early lead, and put themselves on pace for at least 35 points. The Colts don't want to get in a shootout. They want to keep the score close in the 25 point range and hope for a couple turnovers, so they can maintain balance on offense and not force Rivers to push the ball downfield. The good news is, our offense has been very hot over the last month plus, and should be extra hyped for the playoffs (with fans in the stands for the first time all year). As long as we don't come out of the gates flat or make some stupid turnovers, I see us winning this one pretty soundly.

This may be true. But at the end of the day, the Bills may end up getting lucky with their playoff opponents. Outside of us, the Ravens were probably the hottest AFC team going into the postseason. And many believe the Titans were the toughest matchup (outside of Kansas City of course). Meanwhile the Steelers seemed to be running out of gas as the season wore on. Now if the Bills beat the Colts (definitely) and the Steelers beat the COVID-stricken Browns (looking more likely each day) -- then the three teams we didn't want to play will knock each other off, and we don't get any of them until the AFC Championship.