mjt328

Gotcha. I was curious where that number came from. I wouldn't really consider Matt Breida a hole. He was 3rd on the roster and inactive most of the season. Jon Feliciano, Ike Boettger and Ryan Bates were basically one position. We don't need to replace each individually. Cole Beasley, Tommy Sweeney, Cody Ford, Reggie Gilliam, Star Lotulelei and Tyler Matakevich are still under contract. If we get rid of those guys, it will be to either gain more cap space or to add more draft picks.

Excellent post. If you look season by season, the team with the best roster doesn't always win the Super Bowl. Too many other factors come into play. Especially in the playoffs, when a single mistake can lose a game. Once you get to the Divisional/Final 8 and Championship/Final 4 rounds, the teams are very even. It often comes down to matchups, injuries, execution and even a bit of luck. The Rams were not the best team in the NFL, and could have easily been eliminated by the Bucs or the 49ers. The Bengals were not the best team in the AFC, and barely scraped out all three playoff wins. Honestly, a team's primary goal should be fielding a Top 5-7 team and winning their division. (We did that). Hopefully seeding works out where they get multiple home playoff games, and you go into the postseason healthy and playing well. Then cross your fingers that all of the chips fall right over the next 3-4 weeks where they can pull it all out. Better communication on a kickoff, and/or calling heads on the coin flip, and this season could have been totally different. Yes, there are absolutely places the Bills can improve. But even if Beane manages to upgrade all of those spots, it will by no means guarantee them a championship next season.

I'm curious. How did you come to the number that we need to fill 14-19 holes? Are you counting third stringers and practice squad guys too? I don't think you can really count those guys as "holes" since they can usually be filled with undrafted free agents and guys making the league minimum. It's nowhere near as bad as you are making it sound. In terms of starters, the Bills basically went into free agency needing: WR to replace Emmanuel Sanders (although we likely see more playing time for Gabe Davis) OG to replace Jon Feliciano/Ryan Bates/Ike Boettger DE to replace Jerry Hughes/Mario Addison DT to replace Harrison Phillips CB to replace Levi Wallace If you want to add our key backups: QB to replace Mitch Trubisky Gadget WR to replace Isaiah McKenzie LB to replace AJ Klein You can probably also include: WR to replace Cole Beasley, assuming he does get traded TE2, since many believe we are going to play more 12 and 22 personnel. That gave us about 10 true holes going into free agency. In the first 24 hours, Brandon Beane has already re-signed McKenzie and tendered Ryan Bates. He's also addressed the DT position with DaQuan Jones and Tim Settle. That takes us down to only seven spots. I would note that if Beasley does get traded, it opens up cap space and likely means more playing time for McKenzie. So not necessarily a hole either. He also basically swapped the other guard position by releasing Darryl Williams and signing Roger Saffold (probably an upgrade).

The league year doesn't start until Wednesday afternoon. Today is supposed to be the first official day GMs can discuss contracts with agents. Even if a deal is announced publicly, it will not officially go against the cap for a few more days. So we have plenty of time to restructure contracts or cut players, depending on exactly how much we need.

As many have said, I worry the most about Miami making a move to secure an elite QB. (Rodgers, Wilson, Watson). Our first concern should be the AFC East. I actually think it COULD potentially benefit the Bills if one of those QBs goes to the AFC West. Rodgers vs. Mahomes vs. Herbert would be a dogfight for the division. More losses means less chance at the #1 seed.

I agree. You can't judge a defense on a single game. Certainly not a single series (no matter how poorly it was done). You are right. McDermott doesn't use the same gameplan every game, per se. But he does have HIS system, and doesn't deviate too far from it week-to-week. Josh Allen is the achilles-heel for a Belichick defense. Pure and simple. The Pats are built on game planning and preparation. After that game (and the one a few weeks before), film showed that numerous times Belichick called the perfect play... only for Allen to break away from the pocket anyway and make a huge play. You can't expect to dominate every opponent. But more can be done to match-up better against a wider variety of opponents.

Never said I wished for Rex Ryan, or anything close to him. Not sure where you got that. In fact, I said that I don't believe we need an overhaul or drastic change on defense. McDermott/Frazier's scheme is probably fine against 75-80% of the opponents we face. But when we face a powerful/run-first team (Indianapolis, Tennessee, New England), we may need the ability to go bigger in the Front 7. When we face a QB that picks-apart zone coverage, we may need the ability to mix in some man-coverage to keep them guessing. There also may be times that we need to adjust and call for more blitzing.

That is not how all defenses operate. Some defenses (such as the one Rex Ryan had before McDermott) operate on aggression, and trying to force mistakes. His philosophy was the complete opposite. Lots of blitzing and chaos. Leaving cornerbacks on an island in man coverage. Etc.

If the gameplan requires us to move towards more man coverage, we don't have the personnel to do that. If the gameplan requires us to go heavier up-front, we don't really have the personnel to do that either.

Our base defense is Nickel. Which makes us small right off the bat. Taron Johnson is basically our strong-side linebacker. We don't really have a huge 0-Tech nose tackle. Which granted, isn't always typical for 4-3 defenses. But it would be nice carrying one for some matchups. At 1-Tech, Star Lotulelei seemed to do a good job occupying blockers in the past, but really fell off this season. Harrison Phillips was better, but I still don't see him as a really huge help in stuffing the run. Edmonds may not be physically small, but his game isn't really about stuffing the run between the tackles. It's more about covering large chunks of the middle zone in the pass game, and running sideline to sideline. Very similar with Milano. Again. I'm not complaining about our defense. It's designed this way for a purpose. It would just be nice if we added some pieces that allowed us to change things up, especially when we go up against teams like Indianapolis and Tennessee.

Every team has a different answer. That is my point. I definitely don't think man-coverage is a good plan against Tyreek Hill. Nor is it smart to blitz a lot. But you can still mix in a good amount of man coverage against other players on the Chiefs offense. Send the occasional surprise blitz. At least keep them guessing. What the Bills do... they do extremely well. It's just that some opponents require a change-up pitch, and we don't seem to have the players to accomplish that.

Bend-Don't-Break means: 1. Don't get beat over the top with big pass plays 2. Keep completions in front of the defenders 3. Be solid at tackling, and prevent Yards After the Catch 4. Force the offense to be patient and go on long drives in order to score It does not mean allowing 400-500 yards per game, and hoping to hold teams to field goals. If this kind of defense is run well, it can still produce turnovers and prevent yards/points.

The staff has gotten strong production out of guys like Levi Wallace, Dane Jackson and EJ Gaines. But none of those guys have come close to the All-Pro/Pro-Bowl level we get from Tre White... who was a 1st Round Pick. There is a lot of CB talent in this draft, so I agree we could wait and address it later. But I think a versatile CB who could play both zone/man would push this team over the top.

Over the course of the season (and especially since the divisional playoff game), I've seen lots of complaining about the defense. Some of the most common claims: The Bills defense was a "paper tiger" who were really below average and didn't deserve to be the NFL's #1 unit in points/yards. The players are "soft" and cannot stop any decent teams. Especially those with good QBs. We don't have any "elite" players, and we need to trade multiple #1 Picks to obtain one. (In other words, we need to copy the Rams blueprint). Then you have the people calling for us to fire Sean McDermott and/or Leslie Frazier. The cries to cut Tremaine Edmunds and replace most of the D-Line. Personally, I don't buy any of this. We don't need to a complete overhaul. We don't need to make a HUGE splash. What the Defense truly lacks... is VERSATILITY. This team has basically been running the SAME scheme for 5 seasons. Four man pass rush. Very little blitzing. Zone coverage. Strong tackling after the catch. Bend-but-don't-break philosophy. Brandon Beane has supplied the coaching staff with plenty of talent to run the McDermott/Frazier scheme. Everyone on the roster is a strong fit. The players know the system well, and are EXCELLENT at running it. They are VERY fundamentally strong. In fact, I think it could be argued that our defensive players peaked in many ways during 2021. The problem is... the McDermott/Frazier scheme is NOT the best gameplan for stopping EVERY SINGLE team. Which is why we have a tendency to absolutely dominate some opponents, and then struggle badly against others. Our front 7 is generally undersized (partially by design). Which means we often struggle against physical O-Lines and strong running teams. Some QBs are patient and can pick zone coverage apart. Especially when they are expecting to see it all-day. I also believe the main reason our defense has good "pressure stats" each year, but lack actual sacks - is because every QB/Offensive Coordinator plans short and quick passes against us. A split second of hesitation (if they weren't sure what the Bills were coming with) would almost certainly result in more QB sacks. One of the reasons Bill Belichick has fielded a great Defense consistently (even without elite star power), is his ability to adapt and change depending on opponent. Our current roster simply does not have the versatility to make those kind of changes week-to-week. McDermott can focus on fundamentals, gap-control, staying mentally tough, etc. But it's just a simple fact that Buffalo's defense does not match up well against some opponents (Indianapolis was probably the best example of this). To conquer the NFL playoffs and win the Super Bowl, we can't have games like Kansas City. In my opinion, adding some versatility should be Beane's primary focus this offseason: We need to have a talented space-eater (0 or 1-Tech Nose Tackle) who can occupy blockers when we face run-first teams We need 1-2 cornerbacks who can switch between man/zone coverage as-needed Bottom line. There is no need to make drastic changes. Just get the pieces needed to switch things up when needed.

Not just the two guys we drafted this year. We also drafted AJ Epenesa with our first pick last year. And we still have two veterans who aren't going anywhere in Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison. And there are many who think Efe Obada could be a steal as a free agent signing. And the team has been developing Daryl Johnson for a few seasons. Defensive Line is important. But at some point you need to invest in other places on the roster. Hunter made sense 3 months ago. Not anymore.

Not as a Buc. They may consider him worthy of being there again, since it will be with a different jersey.

Most NFL running backs are on the decline before finishing their second contract. Basically around 27-28 years old. Bell's days as a top running back are long over. This isn't 2017. I don't think he could beat out Devin Singletary or Zack Moss at this point. And he clearly doesn't have the kind of team-first attitude we want on this team. The guy wasted an entire year (2018) in the prime of his career, on possibly the most ridiculous hold-out I've ever seen. The franchise tag was more than generous, and the agent who steered him in that direction should have been fired. Instead of trying to find a balance between money and winning, Bell then signed with the most dysfunctional franchise in the NFL, simply because they were wiling to offer him the most money. After suffering from multiple injuries, he then whined and cried about playing for a bad team and bad coach, until the Jets were forced to just release him.

The signs have been pointing all offseason that Brandon Beane wants to upgrade at the Tight End position. He said it himself. There have been multiple reports from media insiders, who have made strong statements about the Bills interest in trading for a Tight End. The restructure of Diggs' contract is also pretty strong evidence they are looking to make a signing or trade. Something is going to happen. Eventually. Maybe it's Zach Ertz. Maybe it will be someone else. My guess is that Beane made an insulting offer to the Eagles, and they are holding out as long as possible, hoping he caves and gives them something more. I would also suspect that all the leaks/rumors are coming from the other side, and not One Bills Drive. I could definitely see Philly telling reporters that Los Angeles is still interested, hoping that prompts Buffalo to increase their offer.

I could see a lot of Bills players step up this year. Devin Singletary People forget that he was pretty good as a rookie. I believe last year's run-game struggles were caused by a multitude of factors (blocking, gameplan), and not just the running backs. AJ Epenesa The lack of a true offseason. Plus the weight loss. Plus him being a rookie. Despite this, I think he flashed at times. Drafting two edge rushers is really going to push him, and I think he's ready for the task. Dane Jackson One of my weekly surprises last season was seeing Jackson on the practice squad, and no other teams snatching him up. Every time he was on the field, he seemed to make plays.

Whaley clearly had an eye for talent. But something was missing as a General Manager. It was hard to put a finger on exactly what that was, until Brandon Beane/Sean McDermott took over. For an organization to be successful, the front office must have a seamless relationship with the coaching staff. You can't just throw "good football players" onto a roster. You must consider the scheme, the personality fit with teammates, etc. It's not a coincidence that Whaley clashed with both Doug Marrone and Rex Ryan, or that he's throwing his former co-workers under the bus now. I think he deserves a job in the NFL as a pro-scouting director. But a team would be foolish to give him another GM position.

It's a very interesting contract. Time will tell if it's really brilliant, or whether is totally mortgages the Chiefs in the future. Mahomes basically signed a 10-year, $450 million contract. But only about 15 percent of that was guaranteed. This allows them to basically restructure each offseason, guarantee him a couple more seasons and push his overall cap hit down. Starting next year, the cap hit on Mahomes goes from $7.4 million to $35.7 million. The year after, it goes to $46.7 million. As his contract currently stands, the Chiefs are setup with $40+ million in cap hits until he reaches age 36. Now technically, all of that money is not guaranteed and he could be released after 2023 without a big dead cap number. But it's highly unlikely that happens, so I guess the plan is to just keep kicking the guarantees into future contracts. The problem is.... how many times can they adjust and push money into future years, before they are putting themselves on the hook for a $60 million cap hit when the guy is 40 years old? How long will he be OK without a long-term guaranteed contract? Even with the new TV deals raising the cap, they are eventually going to be forced into making tough decisions.

Good list. I was also thinking of ball security. He seems to fumble a lot when he's running. It's the only negative side to ability to run around outside the pocket. He also definitely hasn't played his best football in the playoffs, or against the other premier teams. I want to see him occasionally dominate (think Miami, Denver, San Francisco last year) when he's playing an elite opponent. As he mentioned himself, there are also some specific throws/patterns that he could stand to improve his accuracy and timing.

This is a fantastic breakdown, and should give Bills fans optimism for the future. It usually takes 2-3 seasons before poor/subpar drafting starts hurting on the field. After this season, the contract for Patrick Mahomes is going to hit Kansas City hard in the salary cap. They will likely be forced to make some decisions on many of the core veterans. And they haven't really drafted well enough to replace the guys going out the door. I could easily see the Chiefs eventually turning into a Seattle-like situation, where the QB is forced to carry a mostly subpar roster. The Bills had great drafts in 2017-2018, which setup the foundation for a championship team. To keep it rolling, we need to see highly drafted players like AJ Epenesa, Cody Ford, Ed Oliver, Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, etc., step up and fulfill their potential.

The key here is the timing. June 1st is a key date for trades/cuts, because of how dead money is converted off contracts. Brandon Beane could have restructured Stephon Diggs at pretty much anytime after the season ended. He could have signed a player like Steven Nelson or Richard Sherman months ago during free agency. There is no rush for him to extend either Josh Allen or Tremaine Edmunds. The fact this happened today in the A.M., tells me Beane is eying a post-June 1 cut/trade candidate.

This exactly. It's why he made the Top #100 last year (even many Bills fans were shocked when that happened). The coaches/players know what Quarterbacks are legitimately tough to play against. They know who is getting propped up by schemes, and overrated by statistics. Don't forget that guys like Mitch Morse and Cole Beasley said they signed in Buffalo because they wanted to play with Josh Allen. And that was after his rookie season.