mjt328

I think it's important to separate the different kinds of "gun violence" in order to get a better handle on the solution. People tend to throw ALL the gun numbers into a giant pot, when different cases may require a different remedy. For instance, 97% of gun violence in America is done with handguns. Not the high-powered rifles everyone is concerned about. Around 80% of gun violence is done with illegally-obtained firearms, where existing laws were already ignored and disregarded. The vast majority of gun violence is confined to a small number of large urban cities (New York, Chicago, Baltimore, etc.). Also, most people don't realize that FBI gun violence statistics usually include suicide, which account for bout two-thirds of cases. Gun violence is a huge problem in America. No doubt. But incidents like Uvalde and Buffalo don't even account for a tiny sliver of that. Even if you take away suicide (which is clearly a mental-health issue), most of the gun problems in America stem from street violence poor in poor inner-cities, committed by criminals with illegally obtained weapons. Banning certain rifles and installing extra background checks will do absolutely nothing to stop any of that. This country would still have (by far) the worst gun violence numbers in the entire world.

Agreed. If we are going to get anywhere on this issue, the first thing that needs to stop is the political finger-pointing. It took about 5 minutes (after the news broke yesterday from Uvalde TX) for the anti-gun establishment to start calling the other side "murderers" and "child killers." Which immediately put the 2nd Amendment supporters on the defensive. Same thing happened a week earlier in Buffalo. Do gun-control advocates honestly believe that people on the other side don't care about little children being slaughtered by a maniac? Do they honestly believe that 2nd Amendment supporters care more about their NRA membership and hunting than the safety of their own families? That is utterly ridiculous. Here is the truth. The people who are against stricter gun-control DO NOT BELIEVE more laws will make the country safer. They believe the maniacs and criminals will still be able to obtain weapons illegally, while the innocent will have LESS means to protect themselves. When a racist bigot shoots up a grocery store... they aren't thinking, "We should get rid of guns." They are thinking, "I need to make sure I have a gun on me at all times." We can disagree over which side is right. But claiming the other side is somehow responsible for these horrifying incidents is only going to put people on the defensive, and then shut-down any productive solutions.

Makes the most sense. - Last year's Super Bowl winner, versus the (Vegas) favorite to win it this year. - Two premier Quarterbacks with premier offenses - The added storyline Von Miller switching teams

It's fair to question AJ Epenesa, since it's been two years. But the rest of this post was ridiculous. Everyone knew from the start that Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham weren't going to play much last season. We already had solid vets in front of them. Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison may be past their prime, but I would hardly call them "talentless." Rousseau did great in the run game, and hardly played on third downs last year. Even though he technically started, the team is clearly bringing him along very slow as a pass rusher. Ed Oliver took a huge step and played very good last year. Don't be surprised if he's playing at a Pro-Bowl level in 2022. The only other "top end pick" Beane has spent on defense was with Tremaine Edmunds, who has made two Pro-Bowls and continues to be a valuable piece of the #1 defense (scoring and yardage) in the NFL last year. People expected him to be Ray Lewis or Luke Kuechly, which was unfair. He's a solid starting middle LB, and if the Bills are forced to let him walk next year, he will be a very coveted free agent.

The same type of executive that passes on Josh Allen, for someone like Baker Mayfield, Tua or Mac Jones. Brandon Beane likes to draft "high ceiling" guys, who take 3-4 years to develop. He values athletic talent and long-term potential... over the prospect who is ready to contribute Day 1, but doesn't have as much room to develop. We saw it with Allen. We saw it with Ed Oliver and Dawson Knox last year. The next ones up are guys like AJ Epenesa, Gabriel Davis, Greg Rousseau, Boogie Basham, Spencer Brown, etc. Anyone writing those guys off already is a fool.

The Titans have a lot more to worry about than Ryan Tannehill's comments. Last year, they managed to nab the top seed in the AFC and still managed to lose in the Divisional Playoffs. They pretty much peaked, and still couldn't win a playoff game. Things aren't going to get any easier moving forward, in their division or in the conference. Derrick Henry just reached the dreaded Age 28 milestone, which has historically proven to be the place where Running Back production starts falling off. That's not even considering his usage (which is way higher than average) or that he's coming off a foot injury. The offense is also pretty much starting over at Wide Receiver, trading A.J. Brown and not re-signing Julio Jones. They were replaced with Robert Woods (also coming off a major injury) and a rookie. Even if you like Treylon Burks, it's unlikely he immediately replaces Brown's production. Overall, their draft and free agent class were pretty underwhelming. Don't be surprised if the Titans manage to miss the playoffs in 2022, considering all the competition.

I'm starting to realize that Draft expectations from fans (myself included) are WAY out of whack... First of all, most of the national "rankings" we go by, are based on rough evaluations from total amateurs. Not professional scouts who actually do this for a living. We are always missing critical information, such as medical results, interviews/recommendations from college coaches and how a prospect comes across in personal meetings. Once Draft Day arrives, we want to see VALUE VALUE VALUE. If our team is drafting #25, we need to get a guy ranked in the #10-15 range. Then our 2nd Round Pick needs to be a guy who "really should have gone in the 1st"... and so on. Trading down for extra picks is a sign of strength and confidence. Trading up is a sign of panic and desperation. And we absolutely cannot finish any draft without addressing EVERY SINGLE NEED with a guy ESPN.com expects to be a future star. Of course, once the player actually hits the field.... they ALSO must be tremendously successful. Anyone who goes in the 1st Round absolutely MUST be a regular All-Pro and future Hall of Famer, or he is a bust. Our 2nd-3rd Round guys should at least make a few Pro-Bowls, or they are also busts. And we also must get 2-3 starters out of our late round guys. Looking back at previous Brandon Beane/Sean McDermott drafts, some of his best value picks were Cody Ford and AJ Epenesa. Both were considered 1st Round talents, who dropped into the 2nd Round. Zay Jones and Zack Moss were hugely popular targets by the fans, and most were thrilled when we landed them. There wasn't quite as much fanfare for guys like Dion Dawkins, Matt Milano, Taron Johnson, Dawson Knox or Gabriel Davis.

Before this season, this regime has drafted 14 players in the Top 3 rounds. 8 on offense. 7 on defense. If you count the pick traded for Stephon Diggs, that would be 9 picks on offense. The Bills have the top 3 positions on offense locked down. Quarterback, Left Tackle and Wide Receiver #1. Positions like Running Back, Interior O-Line and Tight End can usually be addressed later in the draft. Defenses are a little more evenly spread between positional importance.

Solid pick. Universally, he was considered a late 1st Round/early 2nd Round prospect. The general consensus had him as the #5 CB this year. The earliest I saw him ranked was the #18th ranked overall prospect (Pro Football Network). The latest I saw was #47 (ESPN). We got him right in that range, so it was decent value. Not a homerun. But nothing to complain about either. In terms of "passing" on better CB prospects, I personally really liked Andrew Booth. But as I mentioned in the draft threads earlier this week, lots of medical red flags have been popping up. I wasn't really surprised to see Booth drop last night, and I wasn't really surprised to see us pass on him. If his freefall continues Friday, you really have to wonder about the seriousness of his injury.

There are two ways to evaluate a draft. The first is looking at value, judging where a player was picked...versus where (mock drafts and other GMs) expected him to go. The second is how the player actually performs on the field, and whether he becomes a successful NFL pro. At this point, we can't judge anything but value. And by that standard, the Patriots easily had the biggest reach of the night. Cole Strange was almost universally regarded as a 3rd Round Pick. The earliest I saw him ranked was around the middle of the 2nd Round. Even if he turns out to be a good player, many will question whether he would have been available much later in the draft. Belichick's style as a GM hasn't changed over the years. His draft board is nothing like everyone else. He trades up. He trades down. He has specific scheme fits, and has no problem reaching against the perceived value around the rest of the league. Most of his defensive players and offensive line picks play well for the Patriots, but struggle outside of his system. He struggles to find difference-making talent at skill positions (particularly WR), which wasn't quite as noticeable when Tom Brady was the quarterback.

Jets had a fantastic draft last night. But everything still depends on the development of Zach Wilson. The Bills fielded some pretty strong rosters during the drought. But they were always dragged down by below average QB play, and they maxed-out between 6-9 during those seasons.

Sure. The mock drafts had us taking an Edge Rusher or Cornerback, since those were our biggest perceived needs. None of it was based on any kind of inside information. Nobody had a clue who the Bills were actually interested in, until suddenly a week or so before the draft. Then all these rumors started about Travis Etienne, and people started running with it. There is no evidence the Bills were ever really interested in Etienne at #30. There is also no evidence the rumors were fake. It's all just fans trying to read the tea-leaves, after the fact. We do know that teams purposely float false info into the media, hoping it can give them an advantage. I don't see any reason why the Bills wouldn't do something like that too. By making teams think you are interested in a player (Etienne), it could prompt someone to trade-up to get them. That pushes your true target (Rousseau) down a spot and gives you a better chance to getting them. If teams know who you are targeting, they may be prompted to try and trade-ahead of you. It's a great reason to hide your real intentions. The week of the draft, Etienne was the hottest name surrounding this team. I think a lot of people on this board will remember that well. Nobody knows if Beane would be willing to draft a Running Back in Round 1... until he actually does it. Don't forget he did come from an organization (Carolina) that drafted Christian McCaffrey, Johnathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams in the 1st Round during his tenure with the team. He wasn't the primary decision-maker, but it's definitely food for thought.

You may be correct. But in 4-5 years of following this regime, I can't think of ANY verifiable draft information that has slipped from One Bills Drive. Same thing with our targets in free agency. History shows that rumors surrounding this team never come true. Which makes you wonder if "leaks" are done on purpose, to create a smokescreen for our true intentions. Last year, all the pre-draft rumors were about Travis Etienne. He was obviously taken before our pick, so we will never know for sure. But I don't recall a single article or tweet before the draft suggesting we had heavy interest in Greg Rousseau. But obviously we did. Two years ago, Defensive Tackle was the most obvious need on the team. Based on draft position and value, Ed Oliver should have been given to us in 99% of mocks. But the week of the draft, we kept getting rumblings about the Bills wanting Quinnen Williams and trying to trade-up for him. Nothing about Oliver. Even in 2018... when EVERYBODY knew we were trading up for a Quarterback... nobody could put their finger on which one we wanted. To this day, people speculate if Josh Allen was the #1 quarterback on our board. The trade-up for Tremaine Edmunds came totally out of nowhere just a few picks later.

If you are looking to match exact team/exact player, mock drafts are usually way off. If you are looking to get a rough idea which players are going to be available, they are actually pretty helpful. Last year, I was targeting an edge rusher and kept ending up with a choice of Greg Roussea, Jayson Oweh and Azeez Ojulari. Kwity Paye was always gone. Jaelen Phillips was gone about 75% of the time. Low and behold, those three were exactly who were available. I've been doing mock drafts for the last 1-2 months. Andrew Booth only started popping up available recently, after the injury concerns about his hernia started popping up. Once that happened, Trent McDuffie started going in the Top 15-20 instead.

If I had to make a prediction, I think the Bills go O-Line (Guard) or Safety in Round 1. Almost everyone wants a cornerback on the first day. Me too. But unfortunately, the best value is most likely going to be somewhere else when we pick. The two top guys in this draft (Derek Stingley and Sauce Gardner) will be long gone by Pick #25. I think both guys are likely Top 10, and trading up more than a couple picks is going to be way too expensive. No way Beane flips a future 1st Rounder just to move up for a CB. I wouldn't be surprised if Trent McDuffie also goes Top 15, which would also put him out of reach. Andrew Booth Jr. depends on the medical red flags. If other teams fail him for the hernia issues, it's very likely we will too. After those top four guys, the value drops and we are looking mostly at Day 2 guys (Kaiir Elam, Roger McCreary and Kyler Gordon). Maybe we reach for position, but that doesn't seem like Beane either. I keep hearing about Breece Hall being connected to the Bills. That should be the main reason to reject that idea, because this organization does not let information like that slip. It's a smokescreen, just like Travis Etienne last year. There aren't any running backs worth a 1st Round Pick this year. Same thing with tight ends. The top wide receivers (Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams, Drake London, Chris Olave) are probably gone at #25. I can't see Treylon Burks being the style of WR we are looking for. We don't really need another Edge Rusher, Defensive Tackle or Offensive Tackle. The top linebackers (Devin Lloyd, Nakobi Dean) are both outside guys. So even if we are looking for a replacement for Tremaine Edmunds, neither of those guys really fit the mold. I've done many mock drafts, which are surprisingly accurate when it comes to predicting the positions/players that will be available. The value picks that keep coming up (which I could see being realistic for us) are guards Kenyon Green or Zion Johnson, or safety Daxton Hill. All of those guys are considered solid 1st Round prospects, and all would fit future needs. Don't forget that Beane said "protecting Josh Allen" was his top priority this offseason. He only attacked the O-Line with one-year deals, which means that position will be a need again next year. On the safety side, I think we are (unfortunately) watching Jordan Poyer's last season in Buffalo. We can't pay everyone, and I think he's the odd man out.

Depends on the player and position. We don't have many open spots in the starting lineup (if any), and it would be surprising for a rookie to get significant playing time in Year One. A few exceptions may be at Running Back, Guard and Cornerback. Don't forget that last season, the Bills were not expecting ANY rookies to start. But Greg Rousseau looked way too good in training camp to keep on the bench, so they slid him ahead of Mario Addison. But even then, Rousseau was in a heavy rotation and hardly got on the field for 3rd Down passing plays. Spencer Brown was also a surprise start, due to Darryl Williams regressing and being pushed inside. Brandon Beane likes to draft guys with lots of physical tools and higher potential. This usually means it takes 2-3 years before that player starts really producing on the field. Great examples last year were with both Ed Oliver and Dawson Knox, who both had breakout seasons. Top candidates for this year would be Gabe Davis, Dane Jackson and A.J. Epenesa.

To me, it probably depends on the veteran and the rookie. I agree that Joe Haden, Kyle Fuller, etc. aren't what they used to be. But exactly how much have they fallen off? These are vets with plenty of starting experience in the NFL. Can their production truly be replaced by a rookie on Day 1? We probably aren't looking at adding Sauce Gardner or Derek Stingley. Probably not Trent McDuffie or Andrew Booth Jr. either. What if the draft doesn't fall our way, and the best/most pro-ready CBs aren't available when we pick? What if we can't get a corner until Round 3 or 4? Will that guy be ready to play? I trust Beane. But he's not infallible. Hopefully he's got a plan. Because that position looks like a Week 1 (and probably longer) liability to everyone outside the organization. A one-year band-aid is enough. We realistically just need someone that won't get picked-on and destroyed while Tre White is rehabbing. Most of us are hoping to sign someone before Draft Day, because it drastically opens up our board in Rounds 1-2. It still could happen. Or it could be like you say, and be a training camp/preseason add. My biggest concern is that we drop 1-2 winnable games early in the season, due to the hole at corner. And that ultimately costs us homefield (like it did last season). Homefield could be absolutely huge this season in the AFC.

Yep. That's why Beane needs to sign a veteran cornerback with starting experience in the NFL. He doesn't necessarily need to be Stephon Gilmore quality. But at least someone who won't be a massive liability until White gets back. It's a huge mistake to go into the draft absolutely needing any position... and then counting on that player to be ready to start Week 1. Get one more decent CB, and we can do whatever we want in the draft.

Not exactly the same. Dane Jackson started the last 8 games of the season last year (including the playoffs) and was not a liability. He's going into his third season, and I'm getting the impression the Bills are very confident in his ability to hold-down one side of the field. The only reason Cornerback is such a massive priority is the injury to Tre White, and the uncertainty of when he gets back. As of right now, we are looking at either Cam Lewis, Nick McCloud or Olaijah Griffin starting on Week 1. And they would remain in the lineup until White is ready to come back. Even if he only misses 2-3 games, we absolutely NEED someone capable to fill that spot. As we witnessed last season... EVERY GAME COUNTS. We failed to show-up Week 1 against the Steelers. We failed to convert a 4th-1 against the Titans. We laid an egg against the Jaguars. If even ONE of those games had gone the other way, the Bills would have gotten homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. The AFC is going to be a bloodbath. We can't afford to just take our chances with an unknown commodity on the outside.

What was wrong with last year's draft? I thought it was a great example of why you wait, and don't force things. We went in with a strong/deep roster. No rookies were expected to crack the starting lineup. Yet Greg Rousseau was good enough to force himself above Mario Addison on Week 1. And Spencer Brown was starting by mid-season. Don't forget. Fans were clamoring for us to trade-up last year too. People wanted Kwity Paye, because he was the most pro-ready edge rusher. Rousseau outperformed in Year 1, and has a bigger ceiling.

This sounds about right. Tre White and Micah Hyde are pretty much guaranteed to be on this team until after the 2023 season, barring a trade. Von Miller until after the 2024 season. Their contracts don't make cutting them realistic before that point. I think the Bills would like to extend Jordan Poyer another 2-3 years, and would be willing to get it done this offseason. But they aren't going to pull the trigger early, unless they can get a discount. The news about Drew Rosenhaus makes that very unlikely. I wouldn't be surprised if he's seeking to be the highest paid safety in the league, after being named a 1st-Team All-Pro. No way that Brandon Beane agrees to that. Ultimately, I think Poyer plays out 2022 and then hits free agency in 2023. Ed Oliver is getting the 5th Year Option, without a question. So I think the Bills will watch the progress of him and Tremaine Edmunds this year. It's probably a long-shot for us to keep both guys. From what I saw last year, I think Oliver takes a step and gets an extension. Edmunds has probably peaked, and is much more replaceable.

Screw Tom Brady. That is all. 😁 Like I said, it's possible that Watson takes a step back after missing a season. But lots of guys miss entire seasons due to serious injuries, and still come back fine.

In my opinion, the best QBs in the NFL are: - Aaron Rodgers - Patrick Mahomes - Josh Allen - Deshaun Watson Without being a Bills homer, it's really hard to find separation between those guys. You really could rank them in any order, and it would be tough to find a legitimate argument why they were wrong. Personally I give Rodgers the edge because of how long he's been elite. He's been at the top for almost 15 years and won numerous MVP awards. But does that mean he's better in 2022? Not necessarily. People forget how good Watson was between 2018-2020... on possibly the most dysfunctional team in the NFL. It's fair to question if the year off will change that. But he's just as likely to pickup where he left off.

Twitter. Rachel Bush is very active, and isn't shy about stating her opinions. Now she didn't come straight-out and say they were upset. But if you read between the lines... it was pretty obvious. First there was a comment Bush made immediately after the Von Miller signing, which (paraphrasing) suggested we needed to pay the current Bills players first, because they were the #1 Defense in the league. Especially the guy who was a 1st Team All-Pro. That was probably the first red flag that Poyer wasn't happy, especially because other Bills players were celebrating and getting excited about their new teammate. Then after the Stephon Diggs contract was announced, she retweeted someone's comment questioning why Diggs was prioritized with 2-years left on his deal, but Poyer was still unsigned with 1-year left. Then only hours later, you have Poyer loudly announcing his change in agents.

Ed Oliver is pretty much a lock. This regime clearly prioritizes the D-Line over other positions on the defense. Right now, he's pretty underrated across the league. But he is very likely on the verge of a break-out season (with extra blocking attention on Von Miller). Jordan Poyer was probably next on Beane's list for an extension. Now I'm not so sure. Over the last few weeks, Poyer's wife (Rachel Bush) has made their feelings very public. They were not happy with Miller getting big bucks or Stephon Diggs getting prioritized on a new contract. That may not go-over well with our front office. Agent Drew Rosenhaus also has a reputation for trying to squeeze teams for every last cent, which may price him out of our services. Dawson Knox will probably depend on market value. His stats are clearly limited by this offense, since we have so many other weapons. Will another team be willing to offer him a Top 5 contract for his position? Tremaine Edmunds is probably the odd-man out. It's a combination of timing (when he becomes a free agent), and the high chance that his market FAR outpaces his actual value. You can't re-sign everyone, and I could see Beane taking a chance with a mid-round linebacker (future replacement) as early as this draft. Devon Singletary is an average running back, and very replaceable. This team does not value the position very high either. I think we draft someone on Day 2 this year, and don't see him getting a second contract.