billsfan89

TwoBillsDrive cap scientists does anyone know what the Bills can do to make any more cap space? Are there any more restructures they can do? I’m not sure if there are any other extensions they can do either. Just interesting to see where the Bills can go cap wise if they want to make a last move or two. After adding the veteran edge they needed, the Bills needs are less but WR, back up LT and MLB are all still additions the Bills can make.

I can see a DC job coming his way, but HC will be hard given his age and the trend towards offensive coaches

Not a bad move for the Jets but I don't see this moving the needle that much for them.

Has anyone been able to see how much the cap savings are for Oliver's deal? Sorry if it has been posted.

I think Pat McAfee would think of it as ESPN buying in...

My worry with Hopkins is as good as he is he hasn't finished the last two seasons. Don't get me wrong I think he still has something but what I think is the true gain from Hopkins is allowing Davis, Kincaid and Shakir to grow a bit more at their own pace to start the season. Even if Hopkins gets hurt 8-10 games into the season and misses a lot of time Hopkins still allows those younger players to step into their role more gradually to start the season. If Hopkins can stay healthy then it is only a bonus.

I just don't see Von being that same guy coming off an ACL at his age. I think he at best starts the season on the PUP list (which makes the addition of Floyd more needed) and then Von takes the rest of the regular season to round back into form. Hopefully by the playoffs he can have that big time run having shaken off the rust.

Platooning D-line players is a way to try and wear down opposing Offensive lines and it has thus far for the Bills had a mixed impact. The Bills from 2019 to 2021 had a quantity of average to above-average players. Guys like later career Jerry Hughes and Addison were leading the charge and it worked against lesser units or banged up teams. But in the playoffs the Bills lacked that elite pass rusher to close games in big moments. 2022 they not only beefed up the middle of the DT rotation but also brought in Von as the closer which worked until he got hurt.

Von was a true chase a title “all in” move. A true mortgage a piece of your future to win now

Not shocking Beane is being more active in later stage free agency. The team has some depth needs and not a lot of cap space. Going after the top end of the later free agency market is probably where great value can be found. Hoping this team can get Hopkins and a decent swing tackle to round out the offense.

Shaq is a JAG, not bad but certainly not dynamic. And at his age he just is what he is. He sets the edge above average against the run and is a below-average pass rusher but not tragic. He is a great vet rotation/depth player. The Bills usually carry 5 DE's and Shaq being your 5th guy is a good thing. Floyd will likely slot into a rotational slot early in the season and get good snaps. With Von likely to start the season on the PUP list the Bills need to find one more player at DE and they got a solid option this late in free agency.

The Bills depth need along the O-line is LT in my opinion. I love Dawkins but if he got hurt who the hell is his backup? Doyle was never that great and is coming off a torn ACL. Queese, Snell and Brown are all RT's. I don't mind McBeane brining back Queese he is a solid vet backup and can flex around a bit and Snell was some nice competition for Brown, but why is there not a contingency for Dawkins on the roster? If the Bills can add a true decent swing tackle and Hopkins they will have done all they can do in terms of roster building.

As I said previously I think the only bad contracts on the roster are possibly going to be Knox, Von and Tre. All three of which the team can reasonably get out of by 2025. I agree Beane has done a good job not eating a lot of dead money which is a huge positive but each year he restructures deals that becomes more and more a possibility but also a needed evil with a massive QB deal. Looking at the contracts that are larger I see the following scenarios where dead cap may have to be eaten. If Tre never regains his form or anything close to it in 2023 there will be a long hard look at his 2024 contract, the Bills are on the hook for a 16 million dollar cap number in 2024, if they cut Tre they save 6 million on that number. IF Tre is just a shell of himself then they may just eat the 10 million and be done with him and stick to Elam and cheaper players. If Tre is at the very least solid to good they stick it out for one more year and then in 2025 he is a lot easier to cut as the dead cap would only be 4 million on a 16 million dollar deal. Knox's dead cap in 2024 is 20 million so he is staying at a cap cost of 14.4 million in 2024 which is not great although the Bills can restructure him to save a few million but that would push his dead cap higher down the line. The closest the Bills can get out of his deal is 2025, the Bills could eat 7.8 million in dead cap and save about 7.5 million that season. 2026 the Bills have a better out only having to eat 3.9 million on a 15.9 million dollar cap number. Von's deal is the one where Beane is likely going to have to eat a big dead cap number at some point. 2024 the dead cap is huge so Von isn't going anywhere. In 2025 the Bills have a chance to save some money but will eat a dead cap of 15 million if they cut him after 2024, it would save about 8 million on the cap. After 2026 the Bills have a more tenable out but will have to eat 9 million. 2027 the Bills have an easy out in eating on 2.6 million on a 32 million dollar cap figure. Von's deal is interesting as if he has a bounce back in 2023 the Bills can restructure his 2024 deal to take his cap number down from 23 million to around 10 million. But how that would impact his dead cap in 2025-2027 is something I don't know too much about. Ideally, I hope Von has a nice 2023 and the Bills can lower his cap hit in 2024 and get one or two more decent years out of him and then get out without too big of a dead cap hit. But likely I see the Bills just eating a big dead cap number in 2025.

I had a vet pass rusher as one of the pieces that the Bills needed (and could get) on defense. Von is likely going to start on the PUP so having a guy like Floyd who can can add a bit of punch to the pass rush in Von's absence was a nice add. I see 3-4 holes on the roster. WR, swing tackle and MLB. Adding D-Hop would fill the WR need and hopefully, they can find a swing tackle so Dawkins has an actual backup on the roster. MLB is likely not going to be filled but I can live with Klein and the younger players, if a cheap vet is there to kick the tires on why not?

Beane's strategy from 2021-2023 isn't that far different from the Saints. The Bills have restructured almost every contract they could and made short-term moves to chase a ring like the Von Miller deal. It isn't like the Bills are being all that prudent. My point in bringing up the Saints was that if the Bills want to be contenders and "go for it" year in and year out they can for the most part as long as ownership is willing to pay out bonuses. I do agree that Beane has thus far has been a bit more prudent than other teams in some senses but I can't honestly say the Bills haven't been robbing Peter to pay Paul for a couple of years now.

The point about the Saints is that if you really want to rob Peter to pay Paul you pretty much can for a long time. The Saints rarely lose good players due to the cap is mainly the point. They also are able to if they want to go after players in free agency such as Carr. It isn't to say they are ideal but rather that if you are willing to eat the money as an organization you can manipulate the cap in many different ways to get yourself out of cap trouble short term and push things out so to speak. The Bills aren't really tied to too many bad contracts, they let Edumonds walk which will yield a high comp pick and not tie them to a huge contract to a linebacker who while good is not elite. The only contracts that I think could be bad and hard to get out of are the Tre White, Knox and Von Miller deals. In 2024 the Bills can cut Mitch, Poyer, Harty, Bates and Hines for a very little penalty. In addition to those possible savings the Bills can restructure Josh and Diggs in 2024 to save nearly 30 million on the cap. They also can restructure Von for another 12 million in savings if he has a nice bounce back 2023. McGovern, Milano and Knox can also be restructured for small savings if needed. The only other big contracts (In this sense a big contract is a player making more than 5 million) on the roster are Josh, Diggs, Tre, Dawkins, Knox, Von, Milano, McGovern and T.Johnson. Josh, Diggs, Dawkins, Milano, and T.Johnson are all fairly young and should still be key productive pieces in 2024. McGovern is also young and should still be productive in 2024. Knox also might be overpaid but I think he should still be a productive piece of the offense. Tre is also still fairly young and if he has a bounce back 2023 will not be an albatross. Von is the only deal where the Bills may have to "eat" a bad cap number for a season before they can get fully out of it and even then Von may still be a productive piece. Will the cap be an issue at some point? Possibly, but the Bills have an owner willing to pay out the hard cash for bonuses and they don't have too many bad deals on the roster at the moment. If they can get Diggs, Von and Tre to be productive for 2-3 more seasons I think they should be fine. By 2025, they likely will be able to cut bait on almost any and all deals they want to. This isn't as tragic a situation as many make it out to be, but the draft esp the 2024 draft where the Bills will have some extra picks will be key to keeping the roster in contention.

Great signing Bills needed some pass rush help esp if Von is likely starting on the PUP list

The Saints start the season 100 million over the cap and somehow get by, in the NFL you can rob Peter to pay Paul for a long time. The Rams aren't the best example. Mainly because they not only went all in short-term cap-wise but also mortgaged their draft picks in acquiring their top-heavy roster. Von Miller, Jalen Ramsey, Stafford, Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks and others were all acquired with premium draft picks they also made smaller moves to trade away mid-round and late-round picks. It just wasn't the cap that caused the Rams to be in a bad spot. Had the Rams had some cost-controlled talent from those picks they traded away they likely could have had some shot at fielding a better team long term.

I did mention the comp pick which should be slotted in the 97-104 range. But a pair of 6th round picks and a pick in the 97-104 range is not enough to make the Bills go from a pick in the late 1st where they are likely to be all the way to a top 10 pick which is where they will likely need to trade up to in order to get a chance at the top 3 WR's in next years draft. That's not to say extra picks won't help, but if the Bills are going to want a crack at a top WR in next years draft they are likely going to have to give up a lot more than the extra 6ths and extra late 3rd they picked up. Hell even tossing in those three picks and the Bills 2023 2nd might not be enough to get where they need to go.

If Oliver had a season similar to 2022 in 2023 he probably would have gotten a similar contract on the open market maybe even a bit more. If he had a great season he could have gotten a lot more. But that's risking injury and taking good money that's guaranteed is the smart move. I am curious as to what the cap savings are for this season? Oliver's cap number was close to 11 million on the option, how much money does the new deal free up?

McBeane since 2019 usually had attempted to get good depth along the O-line but going into 2022 the depth on the O-line was really bad. Even if you felt like you could get one decent season out of Saffold and Brown would take a leap up the bench was atrocious. Queese was the only decent backup O-line player on the roster. In 2019 they signed Ty Neshke as a swing tackle and to push Cody Ford at RT, they also signed Mongo, Spain and Spencer Long to help with depth. They also found Bates and Ike to develop behind more proven players. In 2020 they had signed Darryl Williams to push Cody Ford to the bench, still had Ty Neshke as a swing tackle, signed Brian Winters when Mongo got hurt, brought back Spain to take snaps at guard and had Bates as a super sub and Ike there at guard. In 2021 they kick Ford inside for depth, and resigned D.Williams then drafted Spencer Brown in the third round while also having Bates backup Mongo. They shifted things around with Brown taking over the RT spot and D.Williams and Bates kicking inside to guard which put Mongo and Ford to the bench. 2022 they had Queese a decent RT/G backup and no one else really. They signed Greg Von Rotten and Manc both of whom were pretty bad players even in terms of backups. They had kicked Bates to the starting lineup which hurt the team's depth and only Queese was a capable backup when the team usually had at least 3 decent backups on the bench the pervious seasons. 2023 seems to be different, assuming Torrence starts that puts Bates back to the bench as a super sub, Queese is back, Edwards was added to the bench and is a starting guard with a lot of experience and they recently added Snell a RT with a moderate amount of experience and some success. They are also kicking the tires on Ike and Doyle. I am really glad McBeane learned their lesson going into 2023 at least attempting to have more quality O-line depth while improving the guard positions.

The whole plan was to not have Mac be the slot receiver, the plan to start the season was to have Mac and Crowder split the slot WR role. Crowder was supposed to help cut up zone coverages as he was more of a traditional slot WR, less fast but a crisp route runner with solid hands who could poke holes and sit in open spots in zone coverages. While Mac was supposed to be the slot against man coverage as he simply had the speed to break man coverage effectively. But after Crowder got hurt they had to lean into Mac full-time in the slot and because of the fact that Mac simply didn't have the consistent hands and route running it just didn't work consistently. Mac is fantastic as a gadget WR4/5 he can do jet sweeps and step in on 4 WR sets and isn't the worst option if you have multiple injuries at the WR position. But he simply isn't a WR3, while he has great speed he just doesn't run routes consistently or have great hands to make up for his issues.

Definitely a B+ contract for a B- player in my opinion. Oliver is an above-average starting caliber DT but not a dynamic difference-maker either. And the Bills are going to be paying him like a player that needs to be more of a difference-maker. Can Ed develop into that? He certainly at age 25 is young enough and players at his position can be late bloomers. But after 4 seasons I would have expected Ed to have that breakout. 2019 Oliver was a rookie and he played like a starter which is a solid rookie season 2020 Oliver played like an above-average starter, he was a bit out of place due to not having a true NT on the roster but he played well despite the circumstances. 2021 Oliver stagnated, having a true NT in Star didn't do much and Oliver just couldn't keep it going and take that next step 2022 Oliver stagnated, coming towards the end of a rookie deal and a better NT next to him we all expected 2022 to finally be that year he took a massive step up. But an early injury got him off to a bad start and things just never got better. He played like he had for the most part, above average but not great. Going into 2023 a true contract year I was hoping the Bills would get an Edumonds like year out of him, seeing the big money he just shows out. I think as much as the Bills want to keep Oliver in the fold hoping for some boost in production they also like getting some short term cap relief. Don't hate the contract given the added bonus of cap relief, but it is definitely speculative and in order for it to pan out they are going to have to see Oliver take a step up in his current levels of production.

McBeane likely loaded up on picks (and by loading up adding a pair of 6th-round picks and getting a high comp pick for Edumonds) because they knew that with Josh's contract and some other roster commitments, they would need to try and get as much cheap talent as possible in the upcoming drafts. The Bills barring catastrophe will be drafting in the 20's or 30's a pair of 6th round picks and a pick slotted around 97-104 isn't likely enough to move you up dramatically into the top 10 where you will need to be in order to get a player like Harrison Jr or Wilson.

If Gabe wanted a "hometown discount" type deal taking a deal in the 8-10 million range on a modest guarantee I think McBeane would be all over it. But there is no way with the NFL WR market the way it is Gabe wouldn't want to test the market and play out his deal. Gabe with decent production could easily get 12-15 million on the open market without having a "breakout season" (if he is just a bit more efficient in 2023 he can score a big payday). It just doesn't line up for both sides.