billsfan89

Bills 31- Jags 24 Bills go up by two possessions but the Jags hang in there. Late in the 4th quarter, the Jags down 31-21 kick a field goal to cut it to a one possession game but Josh and the boys run out the clock to preserve the lead. Could be a very funky game. Hopefully, the ground game gets going early and the Bills can control the game with the defense and the playaction passing game.

With Groot and Shaq banged up getting Von back is a suddenly needed boost. Von, Floyd and AJE will be in heavy rotation and Jonathan will have to backfill some snaps as well if Shaq can't go. If Shaq is good to go then I think you see Floyd, AJE and Shaq in heavy rotation and Von in on passing and key situations. Likely will see AJE and Floyd start while Von and either Shaq or Kingsley also in heavy rotation.

Not only does the interest have to be there but the economics have to be strong as well. The Phillippines has a very strong interest in NBA basketball but the NBA doesn't have many events there due to lack of money in the market. The economy at large does not have as much entertainment disposable income as the US, Canada, and Europe and in South America soccer soaks up a lot of the sports attention and money.

I would imagine the goal of the NFL is to have a franchise in London at some point and then if that works out put a full division out there.

His (Kelce) game isn't based on speed or uber athleticism so he might have 1-2 additional prime or at least very good years left in him. Tony Gonzalez from 2010 to 2013 (Gonzalez turned 34 in 2010) was pretty good all those years not exactly putting up the big numbers he did in his prime but also no longer the focal point of an offense that had Julio Jones and Roddy White to feed. In those four years from age 34-38 in ATL Gonzalez put up at least 70 receptions and 6 TD's his yards were also over 850 all but one season (2010 when he still put up a decent 656 yard total). Now I don't know if Kelce will well like Gonzalez but I think it is reasonable to feel like Kelce can put up 1-2 more 1k receiving yard seasons beyond 2023. Much past that is going to be determined by injury and how long he is interested in playing.

In 2019 he was a rookie, he was solid but not spectacular, still pretty good for a rookie. 2020 Ed dealt with Covid restrictions in the off-season which probably hurt his development and in 2020 he also had to play out of position playing more 1 tech with Star opting out of the season for Covid. 2021 I expected a breakout but I think Ed still had to be flexed into the 1-Tech a lot even with Star back, he had his best season but not a "breakout". 2022 with D.Jones, Settle and J.Phillips brought in I thought for sure the conditions for Ed during a contract year would be right for a "breakout" and Oliver dealt with an injury most of the season. He still was "solid" but he wasn't a dominant player either. I thought that 2023 they would just have Ed play out the 5th year option and hopefully get a very good season out of him before he walks and the Bills get a comp pick. Instead, the Bills signed him to a fairly big contract and he has the breakout season anyway. Likely I think being health and D.Jones playing the 1-Tech have led to this. But you are onto something that maybe the contract is less of a distraction for him. Either way the extension looks great.

Despite being a Jets fan Eisen is a good egg

I wouldn't say "shutdown corner" just yet, but Benford has looked good. Benford isn't the best athlete but he is good enough and plays very smart. Benford and Dane have really shown that the corner position in this defense is about playing smart and playing within your assignment. I hope Elam really gets going, I am OK with growing pains in October and November for Elam as he has to learn the system by playing in it. Hopefully by mid-December Elam rounds into form and the Bills have both the technical sound boundary players (Benford and Jackson) and an athletic corner (Elam) out there crushing it.

I think they are keeping him inactive and on reserve, in case D.Jones gets hurt. Ford didn't really show out too much in the preseason or in the snaps he had in weeks 1-2 so I think they made him inactive weeks 3-4. I think he will continue to be inactive unless there is a DT injury. They don't really need Ford at the moment with how well Jones is playing. But it is good to at least have some sort of option off the bench in case Jones gets hurt. Last season Jones went down and the team had no run stuffing DT's on the roster. I loved the signing of Ford but thus far it hasn't panned out. Ford's play in Seattle last season declined, maybe he is fighting some sort of injury or personal issue? He is only 27 he should still be close to what he was in 2021 when he was a very good underrated player.

With a QB on a rookie deal they can afford a 2 year commitment to a RB. The money isn't outrageous just under 15 million and they have an out on that third year so if he is terrible they don't have to eat the contract for too long. The Colts need to get Richardson some WR's and a TE in the offseason. Their offensive line is solid and they have the combo at RB now. If they can get Richardson some help on the outside he at least has a chance of developing in years 2-3 of his career.

I think Gabe has been better this year, he is becoming a TD machine and generating firm "WR2" production. I wish he would get a little more volume to take some pressure off of Diggs as he has had two games thus far with just 1-2 receptions (the Commanders game and Jets game) I think his worst games should still see him get 3 receptions for 40+ yards and he should be consistently getting 4-5 receptions a game with 60+ yards with a few "monster games" sprinkled in. He currently is on pace for about 935 yards, 12 TDs and 51 receptions. Outside of TDs which he had a respectable 7 of last season, he isn't outpacing last year's numbers dramatically. But what's encouraging is that his catch rate is 66.7% which is about league average but far and above the best of his career (his previous being 56.66%) given that the offense is getting more consistent I suspect Gabe's production will ramp up and he will if healthy likely finish with over 1000 yards, 60-65 receptions and 10 TD's which should get him paid nicely either by the Bills if he wants to stay and take less or by another team.

PFF says a lot of things…

AJE and Shaq have been playing well maybe Von does come back? Bummer as Groot has been balling out but sometimes you have to think long term with these bumps and bruise type injuries and give the guy a week or two off so that they are good for the home stretch

It’s a nice trade they didn’t give up much for a talented player but Miami’s issues are offensive line and defense this solves nothing for them

Bears also played well against the Broncos despite choking the game. That may have given them some momentum and confidence. That being said I do expect the Commanders to make this game a bit more competitive and cut it down to a two score lead at some points

They also ran into a bad match up away with a defense that was down two out of their three top defensive linemen. Not that complicated

The Jags having been in London and being a decent team make me worried about a "funky" game happening. Teams come out flat esp in more odd circumstances (Thursday games or odd travel games like the London game) so the Bills if they come out a bit "flat" they will be in a tight game. Bills are rolling but that's what concerns me about this game.

Since 2020 the Bills have only lost 3 games in the regular season by more than "one possession" last losing a blowout game in week 11 of 2021 when the Bills got crushed by the Colts 41-15. Since 2020 the Bills have won 18 games by 3 possession margins (17 points or more) and have won another 10 games by a two-possession margin (9 points to 16 points). Meaning that of their 40 wins 28 have come by 2 possession margins or more, with 45% of their total wins in this time period coming by 3 possession margins.

Josh is a complete freak at QB. There is no QB that is more physically talented than Josh and Josh also plays at a high level utilizing his tools to be among the best productive QB's in the game. Josh may be the most talented athlete at QB to ever play the game (I would say Cam Newton is in the conversation but Newton never put it together as a passer on the pro-level consistently.)

Punts are designed to be tackled and pinned down. They come with risks as a block or big returns can happen. But Interceptions are more likely to be returned farther as offensive players aren’t expecting a INT and they are in a designed position to tackle and aren’t experienced at making a defensive play. That Int against the Commanders was understandable and anyone can live with it but generally speaking a check down or throw away is better in that situation

I would have genuinely been fine had Torrence been the pick at pick 27. I also would have been find had they traded up in the second to get him. When he was there at pick 59 I thought it was a no brainer. The Rams, Falcons, Bucs, Jets and Giants all picked interior offensive linemen in the second round ahead of Torrence. I think many of those teams would easily take Torrence over the players they picked

Maybe if Jags Josh Allen was having a down year he may be in the Bills price range. But after his 12.5 sack rookie year he struggled the next 3 seasons but is now having a breakout with 6 sacks in 4 games. Assuming he stays healthy and keeps up a decent production pace he will be commanding a big salary that is not in the budget for a cap-strapped Bills.

Josh Allen had a solid offensive line in 2020. Dawkins and D. Williams were a top 5 tackle pairing, Mitch was a top 5 center and the guard play was competent. Josh also had peak Cole Beasley being a reliable WR2. Josh's completion percentage that year was 69.3% and his INT ratio was 1.7%. The Bills in 2021 had offensive line issues most of the season and Cole Beasley regressed. Josh's completion percentage dropped to a good 63.3% but far from his elite 2020 percentage. Josh's INT ratio jumped to 2.3% as well. In 2021 the Bills reshuffled their offensive line, kicking D.Williams inside to guard and inserting Spencer Brown at RT and Bates at LG. They finally inserted Bates at LG in week 16 in 2021 and Josh having a really good offensive line and a solid WR core played 5 games of really good football despite throwing 3 INTs against the Falcons in a weird rainy game had a much better INT percentage at 1.66% in those 5 games and just crushed everyone until the 13 seconds game. 2022 Josh had a terrible O-line, mediocre RB's and a group of pass catchers that outside of Diggs wasn't playing well. His completion percentage flatlined again at 63.3% and his INT rate went up a touch to 2.5%. This year after a rocky week 1 the offensive supporting cast is playing much better. Torrence and McGovern have changed the quality of the offensive line (Dawkins and Brown are playing much better too), the RB's are playing well and the supporting WR's around Diggs are playing their roles. As a result Josh has thrown 8 TD's to 1 INT and has a sub 1% percentage and has an insane completion percentage. TLDR: Josh since 2020 has always been Josh but the play around him makes the difference. Right now the players around Josh are playing well which is allowing Josh to be super human.

Offensive line play being at an all-time low quality-wise has made pass rush dominant. Teams are scheming around that better now but as bad as we think the Bills offensive line was LAST year the Bills probably had a better offensive line than 10-12 other teams.

DVOA has always loved the Bills. They win by 2-4 possessions frequently and only lose regular season games by one possession. Since 2020 the Bills have only lost 3 games by more than one score. 2021 against the Colts 41-15 in November 2021 and 2020 they lost to KC by 9 points and the Titans 42-16. Outside of those three losses their other 10 regular season losses from 2020-2023 have all been by one possession margins or less. They have also had 29 victories by 9 or more points. Just a completely insane run that will make them look great in DVOA.