billsfan89

In 2019 he was a rookie, he was solid but not spectacular, still pretty good for a rookie. 2020 Ed dealt with Covid restrictions in the off-season which probably hurt his development and in 2020 he also had to play out of position playing more 1 tech with Star opting out of the season for Covid. 2021 I expected a breakout but I think Ed still had to be flexed into the 1-Tech a lot even with Star back, he had his best season but not a "breakout". 2022 with D.Jones, Settle and J.Phillips brought in I thought for sure the conditions for Ed during a contract year would be right for a "breakout" and Oliver dealt with an injury most of the season. He still was "solid" but he wasn't a dominant player either. I thought that 2023 they would just have Ed play out the 5th year option and hopefully get a very good season out of him before he walks and the Bills get a comp pick. Instead, the Bills signed him to a fairly big contract and he has the breakout season anyway. Likely I think being health and D.Jones playing the 1-Tech have led to this. But you are onto something that maybe the contract is less of a distraction for him. Either way the extension looks great.

Despite being a Jets fan Eisen is a good egg

I wouldn't say "shutdown corner" just yet, but Benford has looked good. Benford isn't the best athlete but he is good enough and plays very smart. Benford and Dane have really shown that the corner position in this defense is about playing smart and playing within your assignment. I hope Elam really gets going, I am OK with growing pains in October and November for Elam as he has to learn the system by playing in it. Hopefully by mid-December Elam rounds into form and the Bills have both the technical sound boundary players (Benford and Jackson) and an athletic corner (Elam) out there crushing it.

I think they are keeping him inactive and on reserve, in case D.Jones gets hurt. Ford didn't really show out too much in the preseason or in the snaps he had in weeks 1-2 so I think they made him inactive weeks 3-4. I think he will continue to be inactive unless there is a DT injury. They don't really need Ford at the moment with how well Jones is playing. But it is good to at least have some sort of option off the bench in case Jones gets hurt. Last season Jones went down and the team had no run stuffing DT's on the roster. I loved the signing of Ford but thus far it hasn't panned out. Ford's play in Seattle last season declined, maybe he is fighting some sort of injury or personal issue? He is only 27 he should still be close to what he was in 2021 when he was a very good underrated player.

With a QB on a rookie deal they can afford a 2 year commitment to a RB. The money isn't outrageous just under 15 million and they have an out on that third year so if he is terrible they don't have to eat the contract for too long. The Colts need to get Richardson some WR's and a TE in the offseason. Their offensive line is solid and they have the combo at RB now. If they can get Richardson some help on the outside he at least has a chance of developing in years 2-3 of his career.

I think Gabe has been better this year, he is becoming a TD machine and generating firm "WR2" production. I wish he would get a little more volume to take some pressure off of Diggs as he has had two games thus far with just 1-2 receptions (the Commanders game and Jets game) I think his worst games should still see him get 3 receptions for 40+ yards and he should be consistently getting 4-5 receptions a game with 60+ yards with a few "monster games" sprinkled in. He currently is on pace for about 935 yards, 12 TDs and 51 receptions. Outside of TDs which he had a respectable 7 of last season, he isn't outpacing last year's numbers dramatically. But what's encouraging is that his catch rate is 66.7% which is about league average but far and above the best of his career (his previous being 56.66%) given that the offense is getting more consistent I suspect Gabe's production will ramp up and he will if healthy likely finish with over 1000 yards, 60-65 receptions and 10 TD's which should get him paid nicely either by the Bills if he wants to stay and take less or by another team.

PFF says a lot of things…

AJE and Shaq have been playing well maybe Von does come back? Bummer as Groot has been balling out but sometimes you have to think long term with these bumps and bruise type injuries and give the guy a week or two off so that they are good for the home stretch

It’s a nice trade they didn’t give up much for a talented player but Miami’s issues are offensive line and defense this solves nothing for them

Bears also played well against the Broncos despite choking the game. That may have given them some momentum and confidence. That being said I do expect the Commanders to make this game a bit more competitive and cut it down to a two score lead at some points

They also ran into a bad match up away with a defense that was down two out of their three top defensive linemen. Not that complicated

The Jags having been in London and being a decent team make me worried about a "funky" game happening. Teams come out flat esp in more odd circumstances (Thursday games or odd travel games like the London game) so the Bills if they come out a bit "flat" they will be in a tight game. Bills are rolling but that's what concerns me about this game.

Since 2020 the Bills have only lost 3 games in the regular season by more than "one possession" last losing a blowout game in week 11 of 2021 when the Bills got crushed by the Colts 41-15. Since 2020 the Bills have won 18 games by 3 possession margins (17 points or more) and have won another 10 games by a two-possession margin (9 points to 16 points). Meaning that of their 40 wins 28 have come by 2 possession margins or more, with 45% of their total wins in this time period coming by 3 possession margins.

Josh is a complete freak at QB. There is no QB that is more physically talented than Josh and Josh also plays at a high level utilizing his tools to be among the best productive QB's in the game. Josh may be the most talented athlete at QB to ever play the game (I would say Cam Newton is in the conversation but Newton never put it together as a passer on the pro-level consistently.)

Punts are designed to be tackled and pinned down. They come with risks as a block or big returns can happen. But Interceptions are more likely to be returned farther as offensive players aren’t expecting a INT and they are in a designed position to tackle and aren’t experienced at making a defensive play. That Int against the Commanders was understandable and anyone can live with it but generally speaking a check down or throw away is better in that situation

I would have genuinely been fine had Torrence been the pick at pick 27. I also would have been find had they traded up in the second to get him. When he was there at pick 59 I thought it was a no brainer. The Rams, Falcons, Bucs, Jets and Giants all picked interior offensive linemen in the second round ahead of Torrence. I think many of those teams would easily take Torrence over the players they picked

Maybe if Jags Josh Allen was having a down year he may be in the Bills price range. But after his 12.5 sack rookie year he struggled the next 3 seasons but is now having a breakout with 6 sacks in 4 games. Assuming he stays healthy and keeps up a decent production pace he will be commanding a big salary that is not in the budget for a cap-strapped Bills.

Josh Allen had a solid offensive line in 2020. Dawkins and D. Williams were a top 5 tackle pairing, Mitch was a top 5 center and the guard play was competent. Josh also had peak Cole Beasley being a reliable WR2. Josh's completion percentage that year was 69.3% and his INT ratio was 1.7%. The Bills in 2021 had offensive line issues most of the season and Cole Beasley regressed. Josh's completion percentage dropped to a good 63.3% but far from his elite 2020 percentage. Josh's INT ratio jumped to 2.3% as well. In 2021 the Bills reshuffled their offensive line, kicking D.Williams inside to guard and inserting Spencer Brown at RT and Bates at LG. They finally inserted Bates at LG in week 16 in 2021 and Josh having a really good offensive line and a solid WR core played 5 games of really good football despite throwing 3 INTs against the Falcons in a weird rainy game had a much better INT percentage at 1.66% in those 5 games and just crushed everyone until the 13 seconds game. 2022 Josh had a terrible O-line, mediocre RB's and a group of pass catchers that outside of Diggs wasn't playing well. His completion percentage flatlined again at 63.3% and his INT rate went up a touch to 2.5%. This year after a rocky week 1 the offensive supporting cast is playing much better. Torrence and McGovern have changed the quality of the offensive line (Dawkins and Brown are playing much better too), the RB's are playing well and the supporting WR's around Diggs are playing their roles. As a result Josh has thrown 8 TD's to 1 INT and has a sub 1% percentage and has an insane completion percentage. TLDR: Josh since 2020 has always been Josh but the play around him makes the difference. Right now the players around Josh are playing well which is allowing Josh to be super human.

Offensive line play being at an all-time low quality-wise has made pass rush dominant. Teams are scheming around that better now but as bad as we think the Bills offensive line was LAST year the Bills probably had a better offensive line than 10-12 other teams.

DVOA has always loved the Bills. They win by 2-4 possessions frequently and only lose regular season games by one possession. Since 2020 the Bills have only lost 3 games by more than one score. 2021 against the Colts 41-15 in November 2021 and 2020 they lost to KC by 9 points and the Titans 42-16. Outside of those three losses their other 10 regular season losses from 2020-2023 have all been by one possession margins or less. They have also had 29 victories by 9 or more points. Just a completely insane run that will make them look great in DVOA.

Early Projections Division Winners AFC Bills, Baltimore, KC and Houston Wild Cards AFC Miami, Chargers and Cleveland Bubble Playoff teams Jacksonville and Cincy (I think the Bengals get it going late but dug themselves too much of a hole as they probably are going to have to sit Joe Burrow for a few weeks and eat more losses they could be sitting at 2-6 or 3-5 after the next 4 weeks and still having to play KC and Baltimore) Division Winners NFC Eagles, Niners, Lions and Bucs NFC Wild Cards Cowboys, Seahawks and Falcons Bubble Playoff teams Packers, Rams and maybe the Commanders I think KC and Philly are on the same level as SF and the Bills. As bad as KC's offense can look at times I think they are doing what the Pats used to do with Brady and using September, October, and early November as a tune-up for some things in the playoffs. They will get their receivers more time and snaps to get rolling by December. They may still have issues but I expect them to be better offensively.

Normally if this game was in Jacksonville I would have my "normal" level of anxiety but the whole London thing (much like Thursday games) just always has me feeling like "funky" things can happen.

The only time I can say Josh had a really good offensive line was briefly in 2021. In 2020 I think Josh also had average to above-average offensive line play (Anchored by great tackle play from Dawkins and D.Williams) and he turned in his best most consistent season. In 2021 the offensive line was a bit up and down as they were reshuffling some things and D.Willaims had a bit of regression. When they moved D.Williams inside, put rookie Spencer Brown at RT, and replaced Mongo with Bates, that offensive line was cooking great (I think Bates was inserted in week 16). Mitch and Dawkins were solid as usual, D.Williams was playing really well at guard, Bates was playing some great football at the other guard spot and Spencer Brown was a mauler in the ground game and decent in pass protection. We all see what Josh did to end the 2021 regular season and in those two playoff games. In that 5 game stretch, the Bills averaged 34.4 points made more impressive by the fact that they played a top 3 defense in the league twice (the Pats) including the game where they scored a TD on every single offensive drive. Josh the past three weeks with good offensive line play has looked like that Josh Allen again. Hopefully they can stay healthy and Brown can round into form some more. Brown is the weak link but he has looked decent at times, certainly far from the liability he was last season.

He looked bad against the Steelers in preseason. Otherwise in the other two preseason games he looked like he did last year (average to above average). Other than one bad preseason performance there was no reason to think he wasn’t going to at least be decent. Thus far he is playing really good. Easily the best he has been since 2019 I genuinely would have been Ok had the Bills drafted him in round 1. He was by far the best guard in the draft. How he fell to pick 59 is crazy. The Bills feasting off of other teams mistakes and getting themselves the best guard in the draft in the late second

Not disagreeing with you but Brown is not a late round guy he was drafted in round 3.