billsfan89

Sports Gambling should be legal but much like cigarettes the advertising of it should be heavily restricted

I thought the same thing about Sherfield last year so we will see. But I think all Hollins has to do is just be a ST ace and the rest should be a bonus.

Hollins is a solid glue guy role player. He is able to contribute enough on the field in his special teams role while also being a decent backup WR. But he's a well respected leader off the field and an experienced vet in his own right. Given the Bills special teams struggles last year having a ST ace on the roster is a solid addition.

Elam had a decent rookie year, he struggled but he had flashes of solid play. Certainly a “typical” rookie year. Year two he started off terribly but once it was revealed he was dealing with an injury it made sense and then when he came back from injury he looked better. Hopefully he can stay healthy and improve it would be nice to see a player with his potential put it together

I do think that writing off deep INT's as "arm punts" is a bit of a flawed thing. For one the chance of returning an INT for a TD is significantly higher than a punt which is a play where the punting team is expecting a return and thus is designed in a way to minimize a return. Where as a defensive team getting a pick is catching the offense somewhat off guard and thus the offense (which are usually not players adept at tackling) is not set up to make a tackle on a return. Now I do think there is a narrow set of circumstances where a deep pick is somewhat equal to an "arm punt" a 3rd and long or 4th down situation where a QB chucks it deep into a contested catch situation that both pushes the ball downfield 40+ yards and is a situation where a return is highly unlikely by the defense then I think it is relatively equal (or close enough) to a punt. I think the perfect example of an actual "arm punt" is week 3 against the Commanders this past season. It was 3rd and 20 and Josh ripped the ball down the sidelines deep to Gabe Davis and the ball was turned over on the 19 yardline for a "net" of 41 yards pinned from the Bills own 40 to the Commanders 19. It was a 3rd and very long situation and the ball was placed in a way where there was only going to be 3 outcomes, 1 Gabe catches it for a 41 yard gain, 2 it is incomplete and the Bills punt normally, or 3 it is picked in a way where a return is 99% likely to not happen and the ball is still placed in a spot deep down the field for the defense to be a decent position field position wise. TLDR: Deep picks aren't "arm punts" in most situations and deep picks are more dangerous than punts as far as returns go. So unless a deep pass is positioned in a contested catch situation or in a way that highly limits the chance of a return it isn't really an "arm punt".

I just don't see the Bills who while they will "borrow from Peter to pay Paul" once in awhile (Von Miller and Floyd come to mind) tend to not want to jam themselves up long term. They dumped Diggs in large part to not have that big contract on the roster. I think that dumping significant draft capital while also adding in a heavily backloaded contract is not the best idea for the flexibility of the roster long term. The Bills may also not "need" a top flight WR and maybe will need an edge rusher or another defensive need. Maybe Claypool and Coleman are a good outside combo? If you wait to see how the first 4-6 weeks play out you have more of an assessment as to what the roster actually needs? If you go "all in" at WR but then it turns out to be less of a need then you have less flexibility to address a defensive need that you may actually need more? The Bills front office under McBeane tends to do more "prudent" things more often than not. Waiting until the trade deadline seems like it could be more advantageous.

The Bills have a nice "quantity" of weapons. They just need Kincaid to emerge as a consistent high end target and Shakir to be a nice "WR2" style threat. Then I think the Bills can get good "complementary" production out of Samuel, Knox, Cook/Ty Johnson, Coleman and MVS (and possibly Claypool). It's a strong core of receivers at the "second and third tier" they just need 1-2 players to emerge as "go to" players. Going to be interesting to see Josh operate in an offense with more quantity and less quality so to speak.

The Bills can convert Josh's contract and save 6 million but the "Big moves" are not going to be easy to make. The Bills likely are going to make any significant trades or additions at the trade deadline. They can see what they have over the first 7ish games of the season and even if they just have about 3 million in space that is a lot more effective at the deadline than it is before the season starts.

The NFL being the only thing Americans tune into on live television at a rate that they used to in the 90's/00's is allowing them to print money on massive TV deals. The NFL just in "Media Rights" deals will be raking in 15 billion a year by 2027. 10 billion in domestic US TV deals, spread out over five deals between Amazon, Fox, CBS, NBC, and ESPN/ABC. 2 billion in for NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. 1 billion in International TV rights 2 billion in other streaming rights (I couldn't find a specific breakout but I think this includes things like the Netflix deal and other smaller deals for things like NFL Highlights) Then of course there is 10 billion spread out from things like ticket sales (3 billion), sponsorships (2 billion), merchandising (2 billion), and other revenue sources (3 billion). The NFL has an insane license to print money and the fact that streamers like Netflix are interested in the property will only allow them to increase their media rights revenue once the current deals which are locked in until 2033 as having another bidder is only good for them.

Crazy as in 2022 he had 9 sacks at age 34. I do wonder how many snaps he played last year and if that impacted his sack total? I wouldn't mind bringing in Hughes as a camp body to take a vet PS spot but I have to think Hughes is going to wait until in season to sign with a team if he is interested in playing. Less wear and tear on his body to come in and skip camp and the first 6ish weeks of the regular season.

I stopped believing in reports from OTA's and practices or at least taking them with a grain of salt when people were talking about how awful this Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was looking in practices in his rookie and sophomore off-season.

The Bills will on June 1st have 12.7 million in cap space. But functionally they won't actually have 12.7 million to go out and spend. You have to factor in the following for the Bills cap. Rookie pool - Rookies haven't been officially inked that's going to cost the Bills about 2 million. Practice Squad- Yes the PS counts against the Cap you gotta reserve about 4 million for that. In season emergencies - Most teams reserve about 3 million for in season emergencies Bills usually go in at that range. So the Bills actual functional salary cap space after adding in those 3 costs is going to be at about 3.7 million. The Bills will have about 3.7 million in space to actually play with after setting aside rookie/PS/Emergency money. Which is a solid amount of space to work with. Now if the Bills really want more cap space for some big trade they can open up a bit more space than the 3.7ish million they are likely to have. The following restructures are on the table. Josh Allen - Convert the remaining amount of his current year and the Bills can open up 6 million in additional space. Ed Oliver - The Bills can convert the remainder of his base to a bonus and open up 1.3 million in space. Von Miller - He has a very small base salary that can be converted over and saves 1.2 million in space. Matt Milano - Converting his base salary to a bonus can open up about 2.1 million in space. That's about 10.6 million in space that is available to the Bills. However, I think the Bills will for sure not want to convert Von or Milano both are older and coming off injuries. I do think they would if the right trade is there they will consider doing Josh and Ed's deals to open up about 7.3 million in additional space if something "too good to be true" is out there or the team is just desperate. I think the Bills aren't likely to go out there on the vet free agent market. They signed a lot of vets like Smoot and MVS already later in free agency and if the Bills need a big time DL or WR addition their current workable space of 3.7 million will go farther at the trade deadline. So I think their best "bang for their buck" is going to be at the trade deadline where they can take on bigger contracts for less money. TLDR: Bills after Tre's money hits will have about 3.7 million to actually work with once you take into account signing rookies, practice squad and a 3 million dollar reserve for emergencies. They can convert some other contracts to open up more space but that's unlikely but an option they can do. Most likely the Bills will just hold onto the money and see what is there at the trade deadline.

Davis is in a rotation with Ty and Cook is the confirmed lead back. To me that's more of a role player than a starter. Carter is in a 4 man rotation at DT, I don't think that to me qualifies him as a starter. The Bills are going to be relying on a lot of rookies to play roles but the roles are more so limited roles that I think they can handle.

The only three players that are possible to start are Coleman, Bishop and SVPG. The rest of the rookies are either slotted to be depth role players (Hardy, Davis, Solomon, Carter, Grabel, and Edefu) or a project like Clayton. The Bills are not going to have to heavily depend on this draft class to step into many starting roles unless there are injuries. I think expecting 2 and maybe 3 players to start or have bigger roles out of your rookie class is pretty "standard" for most draft classes.

They are all going to replace Diggs by committee so to speak. There’s no one immediate replacement for Diggs so to speak.

I actually think Von will have a nice season with 7-10 sacks but DPOY is going to require him to be at or at least near the league lead in sacks. Von has never won the award even when he was in his prime in Denver. So I doubt at age 35 he's gonna just "pop off" with 15+ sacks. Even in 2022 he was having a really good season and he had 8 sacks in 11 games he probably wasn't going to win DPOY (unless he went on a complete bender with sacks and great play) even though he was at a 12-14 sack pace.

Live events are just so insanely unaffordable. It is about time the US starts to enforce anti-trust laws. But just to keep this to Ticketmaster/Live Nation these companies needlessly drive up the cost of tickets while also not doing anything to prevent scalping. In fact these companies encourage scalping in many instances.

The concerns about Worthy being able to "hold up" are very legit. People though Zay Flowers was a bit small and Flowers was at time of combine 17 pounds heavier and 2 inches shorter. Flowers was also slower having run a fast but not insanely fast 4.42 40 time. Worthy is very thin and runs insanely fast. Tyreke Hill ran a 4.29 40 and was 183 pounds and just under 5 foot 9. Compared to Worthy whose 5 foot 11 and 165 who runs a 4.21 40 time. Don't get me wrong I see why Worthy went round 1. He's not only has that insane speed but he's produced well at the college level. He's had 3 seasons of very strong production at a very strong college program. He also is just 21 and hasn't had any injury history (unlike John Ross who had only 1 really productive college season and was hurt a lot in college) but staying healthy in the NFL is hard for anyone let along someone with that speed and body type. KC made a smart play taking a chance on Worthy, they have a chance on a real "home run" pick in the late 1st round. But it is going to come down to can he stay healthy and develop a little more of his range other than just being a speedy guy. I do like the Coleman pick better for the Bills not only for the tremendous value the two trade downs provided in terms of improving the Bills draft position in rounds 3, 5 and 6 but also I think Coleman has a potential to be an Anquan Boldin type steal. Boldin was downgraded because he ran a slow 40 time. He had two very productive college season esp his junior season and he had a very strong skillset but teams couldn't overlook the 4.71 40 time. Coleman's 4.61 40 similarly sank people on his value as not a great separator (despite the fact that he ran a solid 4.53 at his pro-day and his other speed tests were great). I think people also sleeping on him because his college production while good wasn't eye popping but ignoring his rather bad QB play.

I loved the SVPG pick, back to back years the Bills got a very strong IOL prospect fall to them at a good value largely because they were "only" a guard (in the case of Torrence) or "only" a center in the case of SVPG. I get that teams like to have flexibility for their reserve offensive line players to have the ability to play two positions because teams only carry 9 and at most 10 offensive linemen on the 53 man roster and they usually keep one inactive. So with only 3-4 players in reserve on game day each team usually likes to have a swing tackle that can play LT/RT, a guard that can flex out to RT, and a center that can flex to a guard spot at a minimum. Whereas if you have a player occupying 1 of 3 bench spots whose "only" a backup at one position that's leaving you vulnerable. However, I think that ignores the ability for your starters to move around. If SVPG can't displace McGovern or Edwards then McGovern's ability to flex out to guard makes having a "pure" backup center the same as having a Center that can play guard. It's smart roster building as I think SVPG is good enough to push for a starting role and was highly undervalued due to perceived lack of positional flexibility.

The conditions for Claypool cannot be any better so if he fails with the Bills there's really no hope for him. Claypool is with a quality organization, is on a minimum deal where he can be cut with no ramifications, he's on his 4th team in 3 seasons so he is clearly on his last chance, and he is playing with the best QB he's ever played with. He's also on a team where he can actually get opportunities at WR if he plays well. Outside of Shakir and Samuel there's no WR's that are established and going to take up a good amount of target. Coleman is a high draft pick but he can easily be displaced if he shows the need for polish, MVS is a solid vet but he's not certain to take up a bunch of targets, Hollins is more of a special teams player and the rest of the WR group are fringe players. So if Claypool can't do it here he's never going to do it and that's a wrap for his NFL career.

I thought McDermott showed a lot of growth last season. Last season very well could have "gotten away" from McD doing into the bye week at 6-6. They won against KC away, dominated Dallas at home, narrowly escaped LA in the clutch, took care of NE in a game that was not as close as it seemed, and came up clutch again Miami. They then took care of the Steelers in the playoffs before a combination of key injuries, bad luck, and lack of execution in the clutch cost them a somewhat close game against KC. But McD completely changed his vibe and became less tight and less critical of players. The players acknowledged it and the team won their last five regular season games along with a playoff game. I am hoping that McD continues to evolve as a leader and communicator. Everyone always says how Andy Reid is owning Mcd and is this brilliant coach and that McD simply cannot compete with the genius of Reid (being a bit hyperbolic but that's not too far off from some people's views). But Andy Reid was a highly successful coach that fell short with many very good teams and very good QB's (McNabb, Mike Vick and Alex Smith all good to above average QB's). Reid didn't just become an offensive super genius in 2018 when Mahomes entered his second year. You need a lot of luck to win a championship, thus far McD has had a combination of bad luck and self inflicted issues. Reid took a long time to learn from that both with his run in Philly and his early years in KC with Alex Smith. McD will hopefully put together that lucky run and continue to develop good talent with the help of McBeane

Thanks for the complement! I would not consider Kingsley Jonathan to the list as a reclamation project simply because he's more of a developmental player whose a younger player still trying to reach his peak. As opposed to a reclamation project which is a player whose had success but is coming off a downturn. Semantics but that's why he wasn't on the list. As for Kingsley Jonathan with the Addition of Smoot in free agency and Solomon in the draft Jonathan's road to making the 53 is going to be harder as while the team carried 6 DE's on the roster last season that's not a guarantee they carry 6 again. But if Jonathan shows out in camp he certainly has a good shot to make the rotation.

I thought for sure there would be many teams who took interior offensive linemen ahead of Torrence in round 2 that would regret not taking Torrence. But the interior offensive line class of 2023 was insanely stacked at least on the early returns. The following IOL players were taken before Torrence Steve Avila (Rams) Matthew Bergeron (Falcons) Joe Tippman (Jets) Cody Mauch (Bucs) John Michael Schmitz (Giants) Four out of Five of those players had really strong rookie seasons. Only John Michael Schmitz from the Giants had a "bad" rookie year. And to show you how insane that second round was Juice Scruggs was drafted 3 picks after Torrence and he had a good rookie year as well. That's 6 IOL out of 7 selected in round 2 having strong rookie seasons. And even the lone outlier John Michael Schmitz was a very strong prospect and can easily turn it around. We could be look at 6-7 starting caliber to All-Pro caliber IOL drafted in a single round. As a reference just two IOL players were drafted this past draft (Powers Johnson and Frazier) so just 7 being drafted is pretty high.

McD plugged and played Torrence and Kincaid last season as starters. I also think outside of Coleman, Bishop and maybe SVPG the rest of the draft picks are entering into the season mainly backup or specific roles. Just breaking it down outside of Coleman, Bishop and possibly SVPG I can't see any other rookie taking a starting spot. Dwyane Carter - Going to take a rotational DT role there's three vet DT's in front of him (Oliver, Daquon and Johnson) plus Deshawn Williams will be competing with Carter for snaps. Ray Davis - Sliding into a backup role possible as a third string RB or as a RB2. Edeufan - There's at least 4 LB's in front of him in Milano, Bernard, Williams and Morrow/Spector. I think he is going to mostly slide into a ST role year one. Solomon - There are at least 3 DE's in front of him (Von, AJE and Groot) likely 4 as I think Smoot is also taking some snaps in rotation. So Solomon is at best sliding into a backend role. Grabel - Dawkins and Brown are the starting LT and RT. While Van Denmark is the swing tackle and possibly Colins and Edwards can flex out to RT. I honestly think Grabel is in line for the that "red shirt" treatment. Hardy - Is slotting into the 5/6 CB role and will likely just take on a kick/punt returner role as a rookie. Travis Clayton - I think this guy is headed for a PS slot he needs at least 1 if no 2-3 years of development. Given that Coleman and Bishop were both 2nd round picks I think they should slot in well as decent starters while SVPG doesn't "have" to start as they have options along the O-line.

I think Elam has shown flashes that he can be a good starting caliber corner. His rookie year was more like a "typical" rookie season very up and down but certainly showing he can hang if he polished up his game. 2023 he really regressed early looking outright bad. But once it came out that he had a pretty bad ankle injury and went on IR it made sense why he looked so bad. I think when he came back from IR he looked better. I think he is going to have that Spencer Brown bounce back season if he stays healthy. McGovern at center I think was always a "plan B" they were pretending was a "plan A" scenario. I hope SVPG is able to take the starting center role and move McGovern back to LG and Edwards on the bench and in jumbo packages.