billsfan89

I saw a possible breakdown of the cap hits and it's giving the Lions a 3 year window to keep his current cap hit of about 13.5% of the cap. In 2027 it does jump to just under 17% which is more than I would like to spend but still manageable. Then in 2028 it jumps to 21%. They can't get out of the dead cap until 2028 when they would still take a 36 million dollar dead cap hit. They then take two modest dead cap hits in 2029 and 2030 eating 12.2 million or about 2.5-3% of the cap each year which is fairly minimal. 2024 - $32.3M (current contract) 2025 - $38.2M ($12.2M SB + $26M salary) 2026 - $38.2M ($12.2M SB + $26M salary) 2027 - $52.2M ($12.2M SB + $40M salary) 2028 - $69.2M ($12.2M SB + $57M salary) 2029 - $12.2M SB Void Year 2030 - $12.2M SB Void Year Lions by adding the void years to pad out the hit a bit and putting a big ballooned year in 2028 which they can somewhat get out of they keep their current good QB good contract situation going for at least a few more years if this breakout is true.

Goff is a solid QB but the whole appeal of Goff for the Lions was that Goff at a 30ish million dollar cap number giving you lower top 10ish QB play allowed you to compete. Goff taking up about 13-15% of your cap allowed you to allocate resources to other areas of the roster while still having a good but not great QB. No Goff is going to occupy 20-22% of the cap and that's going to down the line lead to the Lions having to let players walk and weaken other areas of their roster and not having elite QB play to make up for that. The Lions drafting now has a lower margin for error as they now have to get more cheaper talent to fill in the gaps their cap space cannot. It's a QB league and they are rewarding Goff whose in his prime at age 30 but it is just a possible bad point for them to be in.

I think the Bills are going to likely carry barring injury the following 5 WR's and I think they will likely carry a 6th WR but that's probably coming down to a battle between Shorter and the vets they are kicking the tires on such as Claypool, Hamler and Isabella. Top 5 WR's barring any injuries or drastic underperformances. Shakir Samuel Coleman MVS Hollins WR's in the mix for a 6th WR spot Shorter Claypool Hamler Isabella I do think the 6th WR spot is going to likely come down to Claypool vs. Shorter. I think they are going to likely have Isabella and Hamler compete for a vet PS spot.. While the 53 man roster spot comes down to if Shorter can be a special teams ace and show some receiving upside and if that's going to show out more than Claypool's possible receiving upside.

Good for Zay to keep playing, after his disastrous run here (and I feel bad he suffered such bad mental health issues) he really turned his NFL career around and got to cash in on a solid contract and is getting another shot on a decent roster.

I imagine Josh will rework his deal 2 times by 2030 as the cap just jumps and jumps to insane levels. The cap currently is 255 million but the cap by 2030 is projected to be 383 million or about a 128 million jump in just 7 seasons or a jump of about 18.2 million a season. I think by 2026 he will do a rework and then get that second "bite at the apple" for a final big contract around 2029.

I think Shorter getting a year to "red shirt" was a smart move for a team that had few roster slots. I think what's going to be the best path for Shorter (esp with the MVS signing) to develop into a legit WR is going to be getting a WR5/6 slot as a ST player. He's a big athletic dude with a 8.9 RAS so even if he's not the most polished WR if he can get a stud special teams player and work on the WR aspects of his game I think he can secure a bigger receiving role in 2025.

I don't think Coleman is going to get any snaps taken away for MVS at least not any significant amount (10% or less if there's any impact). The Bills plugged Kincaid and Torrence in right away in 2023 despite having Knox and Bates at those positions. I think the days of a high pick not playing arbitrarily are gone. If Coleman shows he can play (and he will get the opportunity in camp and pre-season, then he will play. If he needs a little more time to cook then the Bills at least have an option to take some of it on with MVS. Depth is important in a WR room we saw last year how one injury to Davis and the Bills were giving Sherfield snaps. I think MVS as a WR4 is a nice move to ensure depth. As much as it may impact Shorter getting some developmental snaps I think if Shorter wants to take a top 5-6 WR spot he's got to earn it either on special teams or as a weapon on offense.

If Coleman is hurt I think MVS steps in as the first boundary WR off the bench. I think Shorter and if he turns it around Claypool could also be in that mix if they show up strong in camp/pre-season. I think this signing shows me they really don’t want to be in a situation where they are a single injury away from having to play the special teams ace on the boundary like they were last season.

MVS as a good situational depth WR4 is a good signing. The team needed depth and as far as cheap depth the Bills got about as good a player as they could have found given the circumstances. Claypool is a crapshoot “why not kick the tires” type signing. Claypool is only 26 with 4 years in the league and no major injuries. He’s shown a ton of talent with 2 very productive seasons his first two years in the league. I expect absolutely nothing from him but he’s the type of player you should take a chance on. Claypool is the type of low risk high reward reclamation project good teams take chances on. Claypool hasn’t been with a good organization since the Steelers. Chicago has been a dumpster fire and the Fins while they have been decent aren’t known as a good organization that has discipline. Maybe being on a minimum deal on his 4th team in 2ish years is enough of a wake up call. If not they just cut him no loss.

Isn’t Hollins a special teams ace type player? I always thought of his acquisition as occupying the WR5 Jake Kummerow/Sherfield role of a special teams ace who can play WR a bit in case of injury or in 4/5 wide special sets a few snaps a game. I never thought they were going to go into the season with him as a WR unless there were injuries. The drafting of Coleman moved him down out of a top 3 spot now MVS has moved into the pure WR4 slot which firmly bumps Hollins down to WR5

Who is MVS taking snaps away from that really should be getting snaps? Shakir, Samuel and Coleman should get their snaps in. Shorter is likely the only young player that is going to get snaps eaten into by MVS and I am fine with it as I think having a big speedy WR whose durable and experienced is a good add for a WR room that needs some veteran depth.

You can argue that Beane could have done more (I can see an argument for Troy Franklin at pick 95 but I also don’t think this teams fortunes are going to rest on if they took a WR in late round 3). But after losing Diggs, Harry, Sherfield and Davis: Beane has done a decent job of attempting to replacing them. Hollins is a better version of Sherfield, Samuel is a nice vet addition, Coleman was the teams top pick invested into the position. They added MVS who is a better receiver than Harry or Sherfield and they are kicking the tires on Claypool, Hamler and Isabella again. That’s in addition to Shorter coming in off his red shirt season. The Bills also invested 3 additional picks at other spots along the offense. Davis, Van Pran and Grabel all add depth to the offense and Van Pran may be a starter. Given the limited resources I think they have put together a solid offense for Josh. They also have the 2025 draft capital and the ability to add 6 million more in space by restructuring the rest of Josh’s contract both of which can assist in an in season trade if there is more help needed.

I think it’s fair if you think they could have at pick 95 gone Troy Franklin, Baker or McCaffery (not realistic to expect them to go WR at pick 60 given other needs on the roster) but the WR’s gone in the mid round range were not needle movers year one type players. BUT I think Obj did cost significantly more than MVS. OBJ’s deal has 3 million guaranteed vs. MVS 1.25. OBJ’s deal also has much more of a top end as his deal tops out over 8.25 million vs. MVS topping out just over 4 million. The money is a significant difference. You could think the difference is worth it so to speak but I would rather go with MVS cheaper than OBJ. MVS is younger at 30 vs. OBJ 32. While 2 years isn’t much of a difference OBJ has played 9 seasons with two major injuries and missed 3 games last season. Whereas MVS has played only 6 seasons with no major injuries only missing about 7 games in 6 seasons most of which came on a IR stint in 2021 which he came back from in season. I think given the tight cap situation they probably are going to wait until in season to make a move closer to the trade deadline before they make any major move. Cap wise it seems to be easier and they probably want to see what they have first

You can argue he was the WR4 but Harty had more receptions, carries and yards while Sherfield had more snaps and one more target. I simply don’t think you can argue Sherfield was the WR3. Also were the snaps he played in the KC playoff game factoring in his special teams snaps? Sheffield played on almost every ST unit.

Knox is also very close with Josh by many reports. Makes sense as Knox came in the team during Josh's second season and has been a somewhat consistent component of the offense for 5 straight seasons. Knox is the only player remaining on the roster from the 2019 season that has caught a pass from Josh Allen. With Diggs and Gabe gone Knox is only 1 of 2 players left from the 2020 and 2021 seasons to have caught a pass from Josh in those seasons (the other being Gilliam who only caught 5 passes total in those two seasons). Knox also willingly reworked his deal to lower his cap number this season kind of showing flexibility that I think will be key to him sticking around for at least this season and a season or two after. With the cash he's earned from 2022-2024 I think he's likely more willing to take a cut to stay but that remains to be seen, the Bills at least have an out after 2025 that's reasonable. As far as 2024 goes I think Knox is a decent component of the offense. I think given how good and versatile of a blocker Knox is that's going to allow Joe Brady to put in new wrinkles to the offense and alleviate pressure on the WR core by playing two TE's. Although Knox might be over paid he is still a starting caliber TE who adds more punch as the back up TE.

I don't think he was, Diggs, Davis, Shakir and Harty all had more yards and receptions than Sherfield at WR. Sherfield only had one more target than Harty and that was largely due to injury. I think Harty was the WR4 and Sherfield the WR5. Certainly Sherfield was not the WR3.

The Steelers are insanely good at drafting and developing WR's, their list of WR coaches is pretty impressive since the mid 90's. Chan Gailey, Bruce Arians and several others have gone on to be head coaches or offensive coordinators. So Claypool ending up in Pitt to start his career was about as good a place as he could have gone but after his first two seasons there it just stopped clicking. Hoping that playing on a minimum deal on his 4th team in 3 seasons is a wake up call for him. He's not going to get another shot in his NFL career. Sad because he was/is such a freak talent. Maybe he just needs to be in another good organization with his career on the line? The Bears and Fins aren't exactly great places for a guy with some head issues to be.

Hollins is more of a special teams player in my opinion, he's taking that Jake Kumerow/Trent Sherfield WR5 role in my opinion. MVS on the other hand is more of a kick the tires see what he can offer, you can down worse for a WR4/5/6 depth option.

The Bills have the draft capital if they wanted to make a trade for a vet. They have 6 picks in the first 4 rounds in 2025 plus the Bills are projected to get 2-3 comp picks including a round 4 pick which makes trading away capital more tolerable. The Bills have the draft capital to trade for a vet WR. The issue with a vet trade would mainly be cap space related. The Bills have about 2.7 million and after June 1st will have about 12.7 million. But the Bills likely won't be able to use all 12 million. I think their current cap number doesn't figure to the rookies which will eat about 2 million on the top 51 so that's going to get you to about 10.7 million in space. Then you have to reserve about 4 million for the practice squad, and most teams including the Bills like to have about 3 million for in season emergencies. So that's going to leave you with about 3.7 million in space that you can actually do something with factoring in those three other things (Practice Squad, Rookie deals and in season space). Now the Bills could convert the rest of Josh's salary to a bonus and lower his cap hit and open up another 6 million in space but even if they did that it would still only give them 9.7 million in space to play with which is not that great a spot to be in for acquiring a big contract without having to completely backload a deal in an untenable manner. Maybe an in season deal is easier?

MVS ran a 4.37 40 and while he's going to be 30 he's only played 6 seasons (not a lot of wear and tear so to speak), he's been durable and won two Super Bowls while being a somewhat productive player. The Bills are getting as about as good a low risk "experienced" depth option as they can get at this stage.

400 pages incoming...

Knox’s RAS was 9.23 and for a guy his size (6 foot 4 and 254 pounds) he ran fast at 4.59 40 and good in other speed and agility drills for a player of his size. Now coordinated is a different story…

If Beane is just “decent” as a GM then who are the 10ish GM’s better than him? He and McD inherited a team that was in the middle of a 17 year playoff drought and turned the team into a consistent division winner and playoff contender. I am not going to say Beane hasn’t made mistakes or that he’s by far the best GM in the NFL or anything like that. But I will say he’s at least a top 10 GM far better than “decent”. I would say the Chiefs, Ravens, Eagles, 49ers and Packers have GM’s you can or argue over Beane. But after that you are turning into a lot of thin waters to find GM’s better than Beane.

Bills meeting with MVS could be another cheap kick the tires move but that’s a signing that I think can be more impactful. I don’t always think a team not making a move is a bad thing. The Bills didn’t make much of a move at RT or MLB last offseason, they liked what they had in Brown and Bernard and they turned out to be right. I do think WR is a bigger position to take a gamble on so to speak but if the front office likes Shakir’s ability to step into a bigger role, Samuel to be a better fit on the offense, Coleman’s ability to add a better bigger receiver than Gabe and what Shorter and Hollins bring then maybe that’s not a bad thing?

I don't think a big WR trade is happening prior to the season unless something "stupidly good" falls into their laps which isn't happening. First off the fact that this team only drafted one WR means they probably like the options they have with Shakir, Samuel, Shorter and Hollins and felt that they were only in true need of one more WR. They are kicking the tires on Claypool, Hamler and Isabella as well. I simply think they likely want to see what they have before they go "all in" on a WR trade that may or may not be needed. I think one of the reasons they traded one of their 5th round picks for Chicago's 4th in 2025 was to have additional ammo for a trade should they need it. I think it is very very likely that the Bills if the offense needs it make a deal for a WR in season. For one they can see just exactly what type of WR the offense needs and the cap math is a lot easier in season. I know fans can see the 10 million coming from Tre and think that the Bills can just use that in any trade they do make but the Bills right now on Spotrac are only listed at about 2.1 million in cap space for the top 51. I am not sure if that includes the rookie pool but generously assuming it does then the Bills will have about 12 million in space to play with. But they probably have to peel off 1 million for PS players and they typically like to have about 4 million for in season emergencies. So that 12 million gets knocked down to 7 million quickly and if the rookie pool is not factored into the current equation that's about another 2 million to factor in and that knocks you down to about 5 million in true money you have to actually use on an acquisition. Prior to the season starting 5 million in cap space is not a lot even if you want to back load a deal (and the Bills typically don't like to borrow from Peter to pay Paul frequently) but once you hit the trade deadline the Bills having 5 million to absorb in a trade becomes a lot easier to do without sacrificing as much short term. TLDR: Given the Bills somewhat tight cap situation and the fact that they only drafted one WR they probably like what they have for now and will make any major moves at WR around the trade deadline as it will be easier to absorb a bigger contract in season with their limited cap space.