billsfan89

Jefferson ran a 4.43 which while not blazing speed is still good speed especially for his size which while not a huge guy he is 6 foot 1 plus. JJ has the Antonio Brown like game where he's an above average athlete (Brown ran a 4.48) but just elite at technique and execution. I think Keon's just a different type of player. Keon is a bigger and slower guy (I think the 4.53 he ran at his pro-day which is in line with what I think his actual speed is) than Jefferson. I think Keon is a "supped up" Gabe Davis. A big guy who can get downfield, make contested catches, work a decent screen game, and is a very strong blocker. I think Keon's ceiling in my mind in Anquan Boldin. Boldin fell to the 54th pick round mainly due to running a 4.71 40 time which made teams think he was too slow. Prior to his combine he was pegged as a mid to late 1st round pick. Boldin played faster than his 40 time and he also brought an insane level of physicality and skill that pushed him over the top. I just don't think Jefferson is a comparable player BUT if Keon is anything close to Boldin then I think the Bills will be very very happy with the pick. Heck I think if Keon is a "supped up" Gabe Davis the Bills will be happy with the selection. Gabe was a quality WR he just never emerged as that consistent efficient threat as a WR2. If Gabe cut down on the drops and was more consistent and could impact the game in a few other ways he would have gotten to that 900-1000 yard 70 reception level. Overall my hope is that Keon can come in and give what Gabe gave his rookie year production wise. 45-55 receptions 600 yards 4-5 TD's. The Bills can make up the rest of the production from Diggs/Davis elsewhere on the roster but just having a nice complementary season similar to Gabe in Gabe's rookie year is a nice start and a solid enough impact for a player drafted 33rd.

The problem with RB's is that they get hurt frequently and you can find a lot of OK to good ones all over the draft so the idea is you can replace them quickly. There's still a premium for a few of the elite guys esp the ones that can catch at an elite level but it's never going to be a hyper premium position like it once was.

It will depend on what Cook commands. If Cook has another good season I think the front office would likely work out a 2-3 year extension but not at a huge number. I think they would be willing to keep him on a 8ish million dollar a year deal but Cook will likely want more. Either way the Bills have all the leverage after this season with one more year on his rookie deal after this season so at worst they just get one more year out of him and let him walk or trade him.

Way too young to go. He was like a forcefield pushing back and defender 3-7 yards down the line of scrimmage. He was a 2nd team All-Pro in 1995 and then proceeded to be first team All-Pro from 1996-2001 he made the Pro-Bowl in all of those season and then made the Pro-Bowl again later in his career from 2003-2006 and again as an alternate in 2007 his last year (and this was when the Pro-Bowl still meant a lot as far as a reflection of where players were at). He won a Super Bowl in 1995 and was an all decade team member in the 1990's and 2000's. Easily one of the most dominant guards ever gone too soon.

Wasn't Jefferson on the 5th year option this season? So maybe they could only add so much money to that number? Also maybe they backloaded the deal because the cap is going to go up so much these next few years once new TV money comes in.

It is, but I also don't think I am shooting for the stars either I think those are reasonable projections overall. Coleman having 600 yards is about what Gabe did his rookie year and I think Coleman as a rookie is more talented than Gabe was. Their roles could be similar as well. Shakir getting 900 yards sounds like a lot but its less than 300 more than he had last year and Shakir had 536 yards the last 10 games of last season which is almost exactly a 900 yard season pace. So all you would be asking Shakir to do is just continue the production he had the last 10 games of last year. Samuel having 700 yards is pretty reasonable given that he had 600+ back to back season with a crappy QB throwing to him in Washington. I think 700 is fair for him. Cook/Knox at 800 yards is also reasonable. They combined for 641 last year despite Knox missing a bunch of games. Knox staying healthy they should be able to do that. The only one that would be a gigantic leap Kincaid he did have 673 yards last year on just 91 targets. It stands to reason if he gets 30-40 more targets that he can push past 1k yards. I think the other 4 projections are "fair" with MVS, backup RB's, Hollins and possibly Claypool stepping up in case of injury and adding some bonus yards here or there. But I feel somewhat confident that we can get that level of production from Shakir/Samuel/Coleman/Knox/Cook/Kincaid. Historically and based off last season the projections for Shakir/Samuel/Knox/Cook are pretty in line. Coleman and Kincaid are the big IF's.

I think the Bills can further address the future of the WR position by drafting another WR in round 1 next year. Adding Franklin would have been nice long term but they also have Shakir locked in for 2025, Coleman is a nice addition and Samuel is 28 and locked in for 3 years on a good contract. That's 3 younger/prime players locked in at WR for 2025, the Bills can add a WR in round 1 or 2 to further solidify that longer term while extending Shakir hopefully coming off another quality season. Kincaid also could be an "alpha" type TE while Knox is still a reliable if overpaid vet role player. The Bills aren't bare at WR in terms of younger or prime players so a "double dip" wasn't needed. And MVS and Claypool are nice stop gap solutions to bridge the gap to next season where they can go WR up high twice possibly if really needed thanks to that extra second rounder. My hope is that the Bills can get Coleman to give them similar production to what Gabe Davis gave them in Gabe's rookie year. 60-70 targets with about 45-55 receptions and 600ish yards 4-5 TD's. I then think you are going to need Kincaid to be a 1,000 yard TE while Shakir pushes 900-1000 yards and Samuel gives you 700 yards. I think you then probably need 800 yards combined from Cook and Knox. Those totals from Coleman/Shakir/Samuel/Kincaid/Cook/Knox get you to 4k yards so then you can get the complementary pieces such as the backup RB's, MVS, Hollins, Claypool etc, to push past the 4k mark and make up for any injuries to the other targets. It's doable but it's gonna require Shakir to be a consistent target, Coleman to have a nice rookie year, Samuel to have a reasonable "good" season and Kincaid to emerge as the main guy on the offense.

Then you are talking about just being insanely over leveraged by taking out 3 million in debt counting on rentals on 11 individual homes to help pay that consistently. While pay property tax, insurance, up keep and closing costs on 11 different homes. The risk that comes with that and the money needed to cover the difference on the mortgage and rental on 11 properties is not really a viable proposition for the first 5-8 years. The odds of getting 11 good renters for 20 years is nearly 0%. Also banks are not likely to lend to you at a good rate for 11 homes as they would for one home you would be living in even in the looser credit time of 2004. You should almost always aim to own the home you live in but as far as where to invest your other money? I would say an index fund in the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested is far better and less stressful way to invest money as opposed to over leveraging yourself on investment properties.

They got a pass catcher in round 1 last year in Kincaid. So back to back years their top picks have been a pass catcher. It's a good start especially when they have a nice mid-round find in Shakir and signed a solid mid-level WR free agent in Samuel. I do agree that they maybe could have done more in terms of WR in the draft. I wouldn't have minded Troy Franklin in round 3 to help add some speed to the WR core. But I also think the difference year 1 between Franklin and MVS is likely to be marginal. We aren't too far apart on opinion here but I am mostly saying that the front office appears to have shifted in philosophy with drafting 3 out of their last 4 picks in rounds 1-2 on offense. I also think resigning Dawkins was their biggest extension of the off-season and they also made two very savvy acquisitions in the mid round this year with SVPG and Davis both of whom I think will fit nicely on the offense.

They have corrected course in 2023/24 as they haven't invested much in the defense by way of the draft and free agency. Hopefully they continue that course.

I think offensive line and WR/TE should be the Bills top pick and possibly top two picks the next 5-7 years. I don't hate taking a defensive player in round 2 here or there as you need pass rushers and other players as you can't leave the cupboard completely bare on defense. I liked the Bills investing a pair of fairly high picks in Bishop and Carter to help the defense. But I think generally speaking the Bills are going to have to rely on mid-round and late round picks along with lesser free agents to keep the defense stocked up while cap dollars and higher draft picks are invested around Josh and the offense.

I think you need a team with a rookie QB if you are going to have a 30+ million dollar WR with a QB on a big 45+ million dollar number. The Vikings have a rookie QB so keeping Jefferson for the next 4 years to help their QB is a sensible solution esp as the cap goes up the back 2 years of that Jefferson deal is much more palatable. A team like Buffalo paying a QB 50-60 million and a WR 30 million occupying nearly 1 out of every 3 cap dollars is just hard to do. You would need to be an insanely good drafting team in order to pull that off and the Bills are very good at drafting but that would offer a team virtually zero margin of error as they would consistently need to draft 3-4 starters year over year which while possible is a lot of pressure. The Bills likely are going to draft a lot of WR/TE in the top two rounds in the next 5-7 years as long as Josh is a top 3-4 QB in the league.

Josh going into 2020 was an up and coming QB, he needed a true WR to come in and step in to help him take that next step. They traded for Diggs and that gave Josh that true "alpha" weapon he needed right out the box. Possibly Josh is a little less of a dynamic passer in 2020 if he's working with Jefferson who was just a rookie and not Diggs? I was very critical of the Bills in the draft particularly in 2021-22 over investing in defense. 2021 back to back picks in rounds 1-2 at DE seemed unnecessary, 2022 Elam while he filled a big need I was more comfortable with the Bills drafting elsewhere and challenging McD to find corners later in the draft (which he did ironically). But in 2023 and 2024 they spent their top picks on pass catchers (Kincaid and Coleman) they also did in 2022 draft Cook in round 2 which was a nice skill position add. I am hoping that the Bills are finally able to keep investing top picks into the offense year over year.

This also assumes Jefferson develops in the same way he did in Minnesota. I think Minnesota was a really great landing spot for Jefferson. I can't pull it up, but I remember reading that Adam Thielen was really key to Jefferson developing right out of the gate the way he did. I think one of Jefferson's biggest issues coming out of college was his route running. Jefferson, coming into the draft, was billed as a very good but not elite athlete with amazing catch ability but someone who wasn't a great route runner and not a dynamic enough athlete (he's 6 foot 1, 33 inch arms, and 4.43 40 time—very good but not elite) to get separation without improving his route running. There was a specific type of route running that teams thought he needed to really improve on (sorry for the lack of specifics) to be successful in the NFL consistently, and it just so happened those types of routes were something Adam Thielen was among the best in the NFL at. Supposedly, Jefferson worked very closely with Thielen, who was a very willing teacher, during the off-season he was drafted and throughout his rookie year. Once Jefferson vastly improved his route running, it was off to the races. If Jefferson gets drafted to Buffalo, is he maybe not as dynamic right out of the gate? Could he have learned from the coaches here and a vet like Cole Beasley? All possible, but not a certainty either. A lot goes into a player being massively successful, especially right out of the gate. I think Jefferson probably is still a great NFL player if he stays healthy, but he may not break out until year 2 or 3.

35 million a year is a huge number so to speak but it is only about 14% of the current cap which while steep now is likely only to be about 11.25% of the cap in 2026. And the Vikings are a team that just drafted a rookie QB so they no longer are paying Kirk Cousins 45-50 million a season so they turn the savings in on Cousins into keeping Jefferson while having space to address the roster elsewhere. Looking at what less productive players like St.Brown and Nico Collins got Jefferson's 35 million seems like a natural above those guys kind of pegged rate. It will be interesting to see how this deal is structured. Are there some void years added in to spread out the hit? Do they just eat the bullet early and have the cap number descend? There is 30 million not guaranteed does that give the Vikings an out in 2027 with a moderate dead cap hit? Very interesting to see how these numbers go.

From 2017-2018 the Bills had a lot of home run picks. Tre, Milano, Taron, and Josh were all great picks Pro-Bowl/All-Pro caliber players. From 2019-2023 The Bills have thus far hit a lot of "singles" and "doubles" getting good role players and starters. Their biggest success since 2019 thus far has been Ed Oliver who was a solid starter his first 4 years but broke out with a Pro-Bowl season establishing himself as a top 10 DT in the league. I think 2022-2023 have a lot of potential to produce more "home run" style picks. Cook, Shakir, Bernard, Benford, Torrence and Kincaid have all slotted into starting roles at a very good level. I think they all have the chance to improve to a "Pro-Bowl" level. I think as far as 2020-2021 Groot and Spencer Brown are picks that could reach that next level of draft "hit" but they have to progress more in year 4 which is certainly possible. It is hard to say as you mentioned to judge the 2024 class they haven't played a snap. But what I like about that class is the volume of it. 10 picks 8-9 of which are likely to make the roster mostly as role/rotational player which given how well the organization has drafted in recent years esp in the mid-rounds is nice to see.

Get me a list of clients then. SPDR Index Fund was selling for 110 in May 2004 it is selling currently for 527. That's a 470% return over that time period roughly 20 years no dividends reinvested. That's a 23.5% yearly rate of return. That's not some obscure outlier here either, most index funds like VOO that all track the S&P 500 have similar returns within 1%. Compare that to Real Estate which comes with a ton of headaches in terms of renters, yearly property taxes, maintaining properties, closing costs, lack of liquidity insurance costs, and a ton of other factors the index fund is a better investment by far. You should own your own home, that's very clear, because you need a place to live and renting costs go up and you get no equity from that. But investment properties aren't worth it.

The S and P 500 (the most common index fund type) has appreciated 400% since 2004 and that's without dividends reinvested which would probably compound you into a 475% return. But even just going on a 400% return that's a much better rate of return than Real Estate in that time frame which is 275%. That's without having to pay for upkeep, property tax, insurance and other costs associated with home ownership. Now you can rent in that 20 year period but that's also going to come with a lot of pain in the ass things like you have to hope you get a good tenant because one bad tenant can set you back a lot. At best real estate maybe if you get a great tenant is yielding you equal to an index fund with dividends reinvested plus or minus 10-15%. Now since you actually do need a place to live it is still a good idea to own a home if you know (with about as much degree of certainty as you can have) where you want to live long term. Locking in a mortgage for equity and a fixed cost (outside of property tax and insurance which will go up more slowly than rent) is a great idea for your common person to at least own the home they live in. Worthy and these athletes probably short term are better off renting and parking their money in an index fund which yields better annual returns and less stress than maintaining rental properties and less stress in having to buy and sell a home or condo twice in a few years. It's a lot easier to rent a nice 2-3 bedroom and break a lease than it is to close on a home, furnish it, and move out and sell it again. I used to work for a Real Estate Franchise headquarters doing training videos and the CEO and other head honchos there told me that outside of owning your own home an Index Fund in the S and P 500 is actually a better less stressful way to invest your money, pretty much better or the same returns but you don't have to worry about renting or managing properties and it is a lot easier to sell your stock or a portion of your stock if you need the liquidity. For example if you had 330,000 invested into an S&P 500 Index Fund in 2004 it would be worth 1.32 million. That's without dividends reinvested. That's a lot bigger of a return than the 800,000k a home would be worth if bought in 2004. Even if you got an average of 2k a month in rent consistently for those 20 years that would get you to 1.28 million which would be a very generous amount of consistent rent to get you are still falling short about 40k and you have to deal with a lot more maintaince and stress with renters and you have to pay property taxes and capital gains on sales. Whereas once you cash out on an index fund you pretty much just pay the cap gains tax.

Not really sure what pick the Bills have made that was “embarrassing”. When I think of an embarrassing pick I think of a pick that many thought was bad at the time and turned out to be bad. I can’t think of a high pick that fits that description. Even some of their more notable busts like Cody Ford, Zay Jones and Boogie Basham all were players projected to go around those selections and in the case of Zay he turned in a good NFL career just not with the Bills. I can’t think of any other big busts, Elam’s early returns are not great but he’s shown he can play here and there. The Bills are mostly a team in the draft that hit a lot singles and doubles. They don’t hit a ton of home runs but they also don’t “strike out” too often either. Each draft they find a lot of starting caliber players which builds a strong deep roster. The Bills just need a couple more big time selections here or there.

Fair enough but I think there is value in the flexibility that renting provides and you can just invest the rest in an Index Fund that will provide you similar returns with a lot less stress. If you are Worthy in KC you can rent a place super nice for like 3k a month (I can't imagine you couldn't get a nice 2-3 bedroom in that range) and then invest the rest into an Index fund and you probably get a similar return with dividends reinvested. We are splitting hairs here but I think there's a case for renting in some circumstances and I think you can make a valid case especially during his rookie year where he may not want the hassles that come with owning a home one less distraction.

Not always the case given that he's gonna have to pay the property tax, home owners insurance, commission, and two sets of closing costs in just 2 or 3 years. Also there's no guarantee a house will appreciate in value although that's a strong possibility dips in the market happen.

Floyd declining as the season wore on and Von never kicking into gear hurt the pass rush. I am glad this team is a bit younger along the defensive line with keeping AJE in the fold and drafting Carter and Solomon. Hopefully they can just get and stay relatively healthy for a playoff run

According to some sources Brock Lesnar almost made the 53 man roster with the Vikings, the Vikings considered having him as a reserve defensive linemen. Lesnar was cut as he was beaten out by Spencer Johnson who ended up having a 9 year NFL career. I think the Vikings felt Lesnar wasn't going to take a Practice Squad spot so after Lesnar was cut Lesnar went back to pro-wrestling for a stint in Japan before doing MMA both more lucrative than being a PS player.

I think they filled that 4th pass rusher rotation role with Smoot while adding Solomon as depth/development. Smoot had 4 really solid years in Jacksonville from 2019-2022. He had an off year in 2023 because he had a late season Achilles injury that placed him on the PUP in 2023. So that kind of explains why he came on a fairly cheap deal. But another year removed from his Achilles injury and I think he is due for a nice bounce back in 2024. Yannick as a 4-6 DE is a nice addition but I think the Bills are pretty good on Smoot in that Shaq Lawson back end of the rotation role. They probably also like having the back 2 spots be younger players developing like Solomon and another developmental player like Kingsley Jonathan.

If I were a rookie NFL player I would rent at least for a few years. These guys are traded and relocated so many times during their careers that tying yourself down to a home is not a great idea. You may also not enjoy living where you play so why buy a home there that's gonna sit empty in the off-season and then buy a second home in the place where you live in the off-season? Why buy a home pay all those closing costs only to sell it a few years later and pay the closing costs again if you get traded in 2-3 years? Most circumstances you should want to own but I think being in a volatile industry like pro-football is one where the flexibility and low commitment of renting is actually viable. No idea why I broke down this so much but the comment got me thinking about what I would do for a living situation as an NFL rookie.