billsfan89

Bills 27 Washington 20 I think this is a close game. The Commanders have a really nasty D-line and an offense that will likely look to turn this into a one-possession knuckleball ball-type game by playing risk-averse on offense and trying to have their defense at home keep the game close. But I think the Bills defense comes to play and keeps Washington's offense mostly in check and the Bills offense plays more conservatively and just wears them down. I think late in the third the Bills open up a 10 point lead 27-17 but the Commanders about a little more than half way through Q4 kick a field goal and cut it to one possession but the Bills grind down the clock and the Commanders don't get the ball back or get the ball back with little time to go all the way down the field and they just run out of time or turn the ball over forcing it down the field. Tight game against a solid team way, we will know a lot about how good or bad the Bills are after this game.

Smart to have some veteran MLB depth on the PS. Klein is also as plug and play as you can get as he knows the system and hasn’t been inactive that long.

I would not be shocked to see Dorsey get HC opportunities if Josh and the offense has a really good season. I however don’t think Dorsey is going to take just any opportunity much like Daboll.

I think Jordan Phillips is also out of practice but that’s due to illness. So far through two weeks the injury report isn’t too bad. Every team is going to have a few players dinged up so after two weeks the team is looking solid on the injury front.

Carr was on a 40 million dollar a year deal they signed Jimmy G to a deal worth about 22.5 per year. The Raiders felt like Carr at a huge cap number was not going to allow them to win and that Jimmy G plus having some extra 12-17 million in cap space would be better. I don’t understand it either, they could have worked around Carr’s deal and the Raiders cap is not that bad for them they enter 2024 with 46 million in space and probably 20-30 million in “fat” they can cut to make more space if needed. So carry some extra weight on a QB contract is not going to hamper them much. Just a poorly run organization

Having two power backs behind him will only help matters as they don’t have to put a huge workload on Cook. Also the power backs splitting time between them will only make them less prone to injury.

I am not the biggest fan of PFF but their data is not always super terrible. Their data matches the eye test which also isn’t always the best

Similar to NBA players above 7 foot 2 always seem to have issues staying healthy consistently. Yao Ming was very good to dominant when he played but he was 7 foot 6 and had such a hard time staying healthy. More recently Kristaps Porzings is 7 foot 4 a good player when he plays but he has had a hard time staying healthy being significantly hurt 4 out of the past 5 seasons. Dawand Jones fell in the draft largely because of health concerns and some off field concerns. He was a late first to mid second round talent. But if you can’t stay healthy that’s always going to be an issue.

I’m ok with him getting some time to cook and learn the system. I think he will play against the Dolphins as the Bills will need a fast athlete to keep up with Hill and Waddle and Elam did that pretty well last season. So expect a couple more healthy scratches and then an activation against the Fins.

The Bills didn’t just beat a bad team they handled them very easily. The Raiders will likely be a 6-8 win team they aren’t tragic but they aren’t very good either. The Bills handed them a blowout loss which is a very positive thing.

During the drought most fans had a better understanding of what players were worth drafting. During the McBeane era fans have been wrong a lot which had been good. Thus far Benard has been decent to good hopefully that continues.

The Process turned the Bills from a team that couldn’t make the playoffs to a legit Super Bowl contender. I am not ready to toss it out just yet

Get Knox more involved too

To be fair It wasn’t but I would also say that even if the receiver caught it they wouldn’t have gotten a first down so why force It?

The Lions play calling is not helping, Geoff always needs a well developed offense to be successful he can’t “manufacture” offense like other more dynamic QB’s.

The Bills are arguably better than they were going into last season when everyone was deeming the Bills the Super Bowl favorite and a 4 point betting favorite on the road in the opener against the defending Super Bowl Champions. But the pundits have turned on the Bills somewhat and the Jets and Fins are the new kids on the block getting a lot of attention. Which I am honestly fine with. After the tumultuous 2022 season (in which the Bills still won 13 games, their division and a playoff game despite the circumstances) the Bills improved on offense and are still a stout defense. The Bills on offense added the best guard and TE in the draft and a solid starting guard in Connor McGovern. They also made some smaller moves at RB and WR. Defensively the only major loss was Edumonds and with the additions of Floyd and Poona Ford the Bills might be better on defense in some aspects.

I think a 10-7 record with a 0-1 or 1-1 playoff record is somewhere in the middle of their expectations. I think the Jets will likely need to go 12-5 and make the AFCCG to meet some of the loftier expectations or come close.

The Jets are the curiosity team this season. Flashed a lot of young talent last season but were dreadful at QB. This season they added a QB only a year removed from being MVP and a couple of other pieces. They are the shiny new toy and they are in a big media market so they are going to get a lot of attention. The Bills have been consistently good for 4 seasons now, but a sour playoff loss has made people hop off the bandwagon. Monday Night will see how well each team is compared to each other. I do expect the Jets to be good this season a 10-11 win team. I do think they even have a shot to win a playoff game with the right matchup. However, I just don't see them being better than the Bills. I think the Jets have issues at offensive tackle and at WR outside of Wilson who is a stud. I think that even if the Bills do lose on Monday it isn't over. But it should still be an interesting test.

Dawkins is going to be very critical to the success of the offense this season. Glad to hear he has committed to losing weight and keeping himself in better shape. The Bills are going to need Dawkins to be a solid LT in order for the offensive line to hold up.

Every team has busts, the question is how does the busts in McBeane's tenure hold up to other teams? How does the late round finds measure up against what other teams do? I think you can safely say that the 2017-18 drafts were way better than the solid but unspectacular 2019-2020 drafts. And if this team does want to get over the hump the players drafted from 2021-2023 will have to develop better and produce more results than the 2019-2020 draft classes.

Aaron Schobel was the last DE draft to really hit. Schobel had 54 sacks in a 5 season span from 2002-2006 and another double-digit sack season with 10 sacks in 2009. All in all 78 sacks in 9 seasons which I would qualify as a very good pick. From 2002-2016 the Bills invested 4 picks in the top 2 rounds at DE. 2002-2003 they drafted Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denny, both were more or less decent role players at best. 2009 they drafted Aaron Maybin in the top 10 which was a huge miss (esp with Orakpo there) and then in 2016 the Bills drafted Shaq Lawson who after a sluggish start played decently in a contract year and then came back to the Bills on the cheap and is a solid role player. The Bills have under the McBeane era invested 3 picks in the first 2 rounds at DE. Boogie has already been traded. Groot and AJE are still on the roster but AJE is looking more like he is a fringe starter at best. Groot the jury is still out on. Given that since Schobel they have spent 7 picks in the first two rounds on the position it is really hard to think they haven't had at least one "solid hit" (I would say a player producing 2-3 double-digit sack seasons and some other 8ish sack years) unless AJE has an unexpected breakout the only hope for a home grown DE hit is Groot at this point.

How quickly people forget... The only true post-season choke job was 2021 as 13 seconds is inexcusable. 2020 the team hadn't made a deep run before and their entire WR core was injured by the first quarter of the AFCCG. 2022 the team underwent one of the most mentally exhausting seasons (far beyond just the Hamlin situation) since the 2007 Redskins (who had to deal with Sean Taylor's untimely passing in season) and were depleted by the time the playoffs came. I think McBeane certainly deserves a couple of more chances to right the ship and get over the hump.

I always thought Mularkey was a bad OC/Head Coach. When he reemerged with the Titans in the mid 2010's he dubbed his playcalling as "exotic smashmouth" which was marketed as a run-heavy offense with "modern" passing concepts and trick plays. It was nothing more than just running the ball a lot with some dumb over thought-out trick plays.

How good the Bills' drafting has been in recent seasons will be heavily revealed by the end of this season. 2017-2018 were both home run drafts. The Bills got 3 high-quality starters in 2017 plus a future first-round pick (Tre, Dawkins and Milano plus the 2018 KC first). 2018 was of course another home run. Josh is a franchise QB, T. Johnson is a very good "unsung hero" on the defensive side of the ball, Edumonds for all his ups and downs was a decent to good starter, and H. Phillips was productive as a defensive starter for a season or two. Also, Siran Neal has been a good ST role-player for the team. 2019 was decent, Oliver has not been the "Pro-Bowl" caliber player you would expect to get as a top 10 pick but he has been solid, Knox was a nice pickup and Singletary provided some value for four years at RB. 2020 was solid, factoring in not having a first-round pick (not counting Diggs as part of the draft class but weighing the draft class differently due to lacking a top pick). AJE has not lived up to his second round billing but turned in a solid season 3 and hopefully in year 4 is more productive, the Bills may or may not get "good" value for a late second round pick but they certainly got some production. Gabe Davis has been a productive WR esp for where he was picked and Bass has locked in on being one of the best kickers while Dane Jackson has held down as a solid defensive contributor/starter. 2019-2020 were not great draft classes but they were not bad ones either. But the Bills will need to get more "impact" and "high-end" player from 2021 draft classes and beyond if they hope to sustain success. 2021- Groot needs to develop into the high-end starter he was developed to be, The Bills will also need to get production out of Spencer Brown and maybe something out of Hamlin to really get good "value" out of the draft class. This season will tell if Brown can be a viable RT and what Groot can provide. Getting two good starters out of a draft class and a nice depth player is not bad at all. But getting only one starter unless they are an All Pro at a key position is not going to be great. 2022- If James Cook locks down RB, Elam and Benford are good corners and Shakir or Benford develop into decent starters or at least role players the draft will have turned out good. I know Benford has already locked down a starting position and Cook and Elam flashed good play their rookie seasons but they will need some of these players to develop. 2023- If Torrence and Kincaid are high-end starters for the offense and one other player develops the Bills will have done a solid job in 2023 esp factoring in they got a pair of sixth round picks for trading down. TLDR- 2017-2018 were great drafts, 2019-2020 were OK drafts jury is still out on 2021-2023. The more recent 2021-2023 drafts will need to pan out closer to the 2017-18 classes if the Bills want to be more successful. At worst McBeane is a solid to good drafter but will need to be better to sustain success.

Decent points but I can see a scenario where after three years Edmonds is cut from the Bears for not living up to the contract but is still a startable MLB. By 2027 he will still only be 29 and I can see him signing a one-year deal with the Bills to try to rebuild his value and get one more multi-year deal. It won't be a come back for peanuts deal like Shaq and to a lesser extend Phillips but it won't be pricing himself out of a possible Bills return either.