billsfan89

This is an OK Pick in my mind, a definite depth need as Shady and Gore don't have many years left and Yeldon is at best a good third down back. I am not sure if this is good value or not and I generally would have preferred to trade up for a receiver or TE. I loved the first two pick but I think this one is just OK.

I wonder what the trade up cost? Probably a 5th it was only what 2 spots? Regardless I love this pick, this builds the fortress around Josh Allen. Now package 75 with some other picks to get back in the second and take another pass catcher.

1- Cards take O-line most likely Cody Ford or J.Taylor 2- Colts take a corner most likely Byron Murphy or Greedy Williams 3- Raiders take a corner either Murphy or Williams with an outside possibility of Rock Ya 4- Niners go with a WR I could see DK here or another one of the top players on the board going here. 5- Seattle I think goes with O-line Cody Ford or J.Taylor and an outside shot of McCoy the center going there. 6- Jags go WR they need a lot of help here, I could see DK or Brown or another WR here. I wouldn’t rule out Smith the TE here either. 7- Tampa goes with a corner, between Murphy, Williams, or Rock Ya whichever one is not take by the Colts and Raiders. 8- If DK is here I think the Bills go DK. I could also see Byron Murphy if he somehow falls but I doubt he is here. I think if DK and Byron aren’t there they go with the best O-line player or Smith at TE if they don’t like the O-line players available.

The thing is with the NFL draft you have 32 different entities that are making the only evaluations that matter. So it only takes 2-3 teams that have wildly different evaluations from the rest of the teams to shake up the draft board. Also pundits don't always have access to medicals that the teams do so typically you see some guys fall way down because of these unknown medical issues. ESPN and all the other pundits are just doing educated guesswork. But it is interesting to see what the consensus is among draft pundits.

Boston was so racist that the Bruins who did not make the playoffs from 1959-1960 to 1966-1967 outdrew them easily. Even Bill Russell hated the Boston fanbase for years after before eventually coming back to the fanbase in the 1980's.

7 top 32 talents still on the board.

My dream scenario at pick 40 is DK and then the Bills trade back into round 2 (plenty of ammo to go from 75 to 55ish and still have plenty of mid and late round picks) and grab another high end offensive player that falls a bit more than expected. J.Taylor at pick 55ish would be amazing to bookend with DK and then use the rest of the draft to build depth.

They don't need to trade up from 40 to get a first round or close talent. Stay put at 40 and just let the draft come to you. I think the Bills are much better off trading back into the second from the early third to aggressively chase a player falling a bit father than expected. They could package a 4th to do so while having plenty of mid-round selections to build depth.

I hate Jets fans, I grew up 2 miles outside of Giants stadium and Jets and Giants fans are the reasons why I like neither team.

I am not moving Zay unless I get a third or an early 4th and a 5th or better in 2020. Even if the Bills took DK at pick 40 (If he is still there) I would still want a much depth as possible at WR. DK, Brown, Cole, Zay, Foster, and Miller would be the WR core and it would have a lot of depth and competition to it. Now if I get DK at 40 and I get real value for Zay I would do it because I can live with Foster as depth if I can get legit picks to fill other needs along the roster. But I am not shipping out Zay for a late round pick just because the team took a WR. I think Zay is worth more than a 6th rounder.

They resigned Mo Wilkerson but he just got fat and lazy once he got the big money, Sheldon Richardson was becoming a headache so they traded him for good value rather than deal with him. L.Williams is still on his rookie deal and they can franchise him. So unless they traded L.Williams or don't resign him then I don't see what there is to criticize about the Jets drafting the position a lot.

I think Dareus was the last pick where everyone or almost everyone was fully on board since it was thought that Newton was a lock to go one and the two top defensive prospects were Miller and Dareus in that order. Everyone pretty much wanted the Bills to take either Dareus or Miller whomever fell. The Bills did exactly that. As for the Jets they took the best player in the draft on many boards. I would have made that decision too. The Jets have since 2011 spent 4 first round picks on DT's. That's 4 picks in 9 years which is a lot but not exactly tragic. Three of the players so far have been pretty good thus far. Mo Wilkerson had 2 double digit sack seasons and was a 2 time All-Pro. Richardson made a pro-bowl and was traded for a second round pick. Leonard Williams thus far in his career has been pretty good he made a pro-bowl in 2016 and has played at a fairly high level for some bad Jets teams. The Jets taking Q.Williams was just a prudent move esp given where the league is going pass rush wise. Pairing Q.Williams up with L.Williams is a great foundation to a defensive line. I don't see how their fanbase can B word about it. It's not like their non-DT picks since 2011 have been any good all have been busts besides Jamal Adams (Who I think is a hit) and the jury is still out on Darnold. If I was a Jets fan I think their ability to find talent at the DT position makes me more confident in the pick. The Giants are the NFC's Raiders.

Sapp, Randle, and Donald are all the comps to Oliver, a smaller but quick and powerful DT for a 4-3 scheme. I would also compare him to Tommy Harris who played for the Bears in the mid to late 00's. Harris was a smaller DT who was a quick penetrating disruptor. Made several Pro-Bowls and an All-Pro team and was a key cog in their 2006 NFC title. Harris probably would have been better in this era than in his own when teams ran the ball much more. If the Bills get some sort of approximation of those kinds of disruptive DT's I think they will be just fine with this Oliver pick. Star and H.Phillips can do the nasty dirty work in the run game while Oliver and Jordan Phillips do the disruptive work. It is also good to have a blue chip young player on the D-line for the future of the team as outside of Shaq (an underperforming player) and H.Phillips (coming off a so so rookie year) there isn't much youth on the D-line. Now with Oliver you have a young player in the mix there.

Every year there is a player that everyone has a 1st or 2nd round grade on that falls to somewhere between round 3 and 5. As good and informed as media is there is just some information that isn't available that makes the projection way off on one or two players. Taylor looks to be that guy. I think he does find a home in round 3 as some team will love the value there after possibly filling 2 other needs elsewhere. I don't think the Bills should take him at pick 40 given that there must be something wrong with him. Take DK at pick 40 and then see if Taylor falls to you in round 3. Or take Ford or another blue chipper and trade to the back end of the second if another elite player falls a bit.

When a lot of teams began playing a 3-4 defense, scouts, fans, media, and teams realized that a 3-4 OLB and a 4-3 DE have more in common than a 3-4 OLB and a 4-3 OLB. It's more so a simplification of the terms.

DK and Taylor are the sexy names, Byron Murphy might be the best corner in the draft, a lot of people were very high on Greedy Williams who might be the best corner in the draft. AJ Brown is another WR that had 1st round expectations by some. Cody Ford is another high end player still on the board. Right now if I am the Bills just stay put at pick 8. There are 8 legit prospects still on the board right now and the better prospect is to just stay put at pick 40 see which of the best remaining players are there. Ideally my dream draft scenario is to have Ford there at pick 40 that would complete the fortress built in front of Josh Allen. Then the team trades back into the mid 50's and takes DK who I hope falls. Ford and DK would cement two blue chip young players that Allen could grow with in the coming years. Ford anchors a guard or tackle spot along the O-line while DK is a bigger DeSean Jackson type deep threat with stud potential (and the injury risk is much more tolerable for a late second round pick.)

I don’t think the team needs to go O-line but if the value is there at pick 40 or later 2ndround or early 3rd(I think a trade up to the back end of round 2 will happen it fits the teams draft pattern thus far) then I think either a guard or tackle would be nice. I do however think that the more pressing need is to add a pass catcher on offense. Brown, Beasley, and Kroft were nice but neither of the three put fear into the heart of a defense, I am not sure what Zay or Foster do either. I don’t think this team goes for DK unless he falls deep into the second round. I also wouldn’t be shocked to see Byron Murphy or Greedy Williams drafted by this team at pick 40 if either fall (I don’t think Murphy falls but there is an outside chance Williams does.) My dream scenario is that the Bills stay at 40 and get a top tackle prospect like Taylor or Ford to fall and then DK falls to around pick 55 where the team trades up and give Josh both a top level of protection and a deep threat at receiver. The team can then address linebacker and other depth needs in round 4 and 5 where they should still at least have 1 pick remaining in each round after a trade up.

I think SI will be an outlier for sure. The Bills got a player at a position of need and at value that at worst was appropriate. Some people even had Ed Oliver as the third best player in the draft or in the top 5. Overall I think most will grade this pick highly. I for sure am happy this was my best case scenario.

Heath Miller in 2005 drafted 30th overall borderline HOF career contributor on some very successful Steelers teams. Vernon Davis in 2006 was drafted 6th overall and he turned in a good career. Mercedes Lewis in 2006 drafted 28th overall and he played a long career turning in a 6 year stretch where he was one of the top 10 tightends in the league and probably would have been better had he not been on an awful team most of his career. Greg Olsen in 2007 was drafted 30th overall and turned in a HOF career Dustin Keller in 2008 was drafted 30th overall and turned into one of the top 5 TE's in the league for a 2-3 year period before a catastrophic injury derailed his career. Brandon Pettigrew in 2009 was drafted 20th overall never an elite TE but turned in a 4 year stretch of top 10 to 5 production before injury derailed his career. Jermaine Gresham in 2010 was drafted 21st overall opened his career with a 5 year stretch turning in top 10 to 5 production before injuries knocked him down a peg although he hung around longer than Pettigrew and Keller. Tyler Eifert the first true bust of this bunch although Eifert put together a very good 2015 he never eclipsed 500 yards outside of that one season. From 2005 to 2013 there were 8 Tight Ends drafted in the first round. I would say 3-4 were great players. Davis, Olsen, and Miller that more than justified their first round billing. I would then say that Lewis is borderline as while he was never elite he was a good player consistently for a long time and probably would have been a top 5 TE in the league had he been on a better team. I would then say 3 players Pettigrew, Gresham, and Keller gave you 4 years or more of top 10 production at their position before injuries derailed their careers or declined their careers. So can you call them busts? That depends, in the NFL 4 years isn't a short time to produce at an elite level, but for a player drafted in the first round you at least want 7-8 highly productive years. So I would put them as a semi-bust. I would only say that 1 TE drafted in the first round is really a bust and that's Eifert who only turned in one good season. That leaves the TE position in the first round at the following hit rate. 50% Hit (HOF or borderline HOF career) 37.5 Somewhere in the middle (4-5 years of high end production) 12.5% Outright Bust (No prolonged stretch of production)

The Bills would be justified in making a win now move, I don't think anyone is knocking the Bears for aggressively going after Mack. However I agree that the price was simply too high. The Bills likely would have had to have given up pick 40, their 4th round pick, and a 2020 2nd, along with a huge contract. It is simply too much to give up for a top but not elite pass rusher. I would have given up pick 40 straight up and a 4th in 2020 but that's about it. Even then that might have been a foolish move. Overall I think the Bills were correct in backing off given what the demands were.

Tight ends taken in the first round have a pretty good success rate. Yes some of them have had careers that were OK (Top 10 players for a 3-6 year period flirted with top 5 at times) and careers that started out great but then got derailed due to injury. There are others that were some HOF or near HOF talent. Very few were outright busts. Tight end is a need I wouldn't mind taking a tight end at 9 if Hock is really that kind of caliber of prospect.

Injury kills a lot of careers. Motivation or lack it lacks is a factor too. Also being drafted into the wrong situation is something that can derail a career. Also sometimes scouts just get it wrong on how a player's athletic ability translates to the NFL A player can be a freak athlete who had success at the college level but they just don't make it work when they need to be a polished player

Kiper loved Josh Allen to the point where he would have taken him first overall. So its not surprising to see him showing some love. I think the Bills do need a good draft to put themselves over the hump but this team is trending in the right direction.

If I had to rank the Bills coaches during the drought from worst to be (Worst being number one) here are my picks. 1- Dick Jauron - Soft defense in an era that was much more physical, weak bend don't break mentality, bad game management, poor OC decision making, and all around bad drafting. 2- Rex - Had too much faith in his system to the point where himself a defensive specialist took a top 3 defense in the league and dragged them down to the middle of the pack simply due to forcing his system when the talent was there to run the other system. He also built a toxic culture by taking on too many head cases. Only positive was his offensive coaches were good. He won more than most coaches in the drought but he also had the most talent to work with. 3- Greggo - Didn't do a whole lot when he had a lot of talent, bad in game management and bad overall decision making when it came to the offense too. 4- Chan - Worked miracles with smoke and mirrors on offense but just made some awful decisions with D-coordinators. He didn't have a lot of talent so I can't say his lack of winning was just on him. 5- Mularky - In two years he had one winning season, in game management wasn't the best and offense his specialty wasn't that great. Probably would be higher on this list if it wasn't for the fact that he got out of dodge quickly. 6- Marrone - The least terrible. He had some talent for sure and put together a winning season with it. Certainly understood how to build a culture and made good defensive coaching decisions. However for an offensive guru he presided over some trash defenses. Once again probably would be rated worse if he didn't get out of dodge quickly. Dam this is a sad list.

Tyreek Hill is the perfect fit for Josh Allen or any big armed QB for that matter. It would be an amazing fit football wise but I am not seeing this as being a fit for the process. McD is building a culture not hounding for talent. Granted talent wins football games but it is a more sustained approach to try and have a good team culture. This is a big time offense and not one worth touching for both moral and football reasons.