billsfan89

It is hard to make perfect but there are many ways to make it better that don't include a very stupid numbers in and numbers out formula.

I really wish that the Bills kicked the extra point to go down 16 and then after recovering the kick scored a TD. Even if they weren't able to get the ball back again it would have been fun to be down one score late in the game with a small chance. Both onside kicks were great KC just did a good job fielding the second one.

It is very very stupid in my opinion because it effectively treats losing 5 guys for 15 million dollars in aav the same as signing 5 guys for 3 million each. I think the whole system needs to be reworked.

The Bills will get a comp pick if they sign less free agents than they lose from my understanding. So if they sign 5 free agents (who aren't cut by their team) and they lose Milano and 5 others to other teams they will get one comp pick. The formula is very very stupid in my opinion.

Good for Milano to seek a big deal. But let's see if there is a market for him or if he realizes that big long term deal might not be there for him. With a cap crunch or a possible cap flattening he might end up taking a 7-8 million dollar one year deal might be in his best interests to stay.

If he goes to Miami for mostly draft capital they will be in serious contention. The Jets will be better off long term but will be a year away although more competitive.

I don't necessarily know if the missing link on the offense is any type of player. Yes the team could use some speed out of the backfield and maybe an upgrade over Knox at TE. But considering how banged up the WR corps ended up being (Davis, Brown and Beasley were hurt going into the game and Diggs got dinged early on) I am not sure that there even is a "missing link" in the offense. You have 4 WR's who all are good players when healthy and complement each other well. Yes John Brown's health is now a concern again but Davis provides depth. You have Knox who looked to come on stronger to end the season and is at worst a good complementary weapon, you have an O-line that is stacked for once and you have a pair of good young RB's who can do a little of everything. To me the issue is more so can John Brown or Gabe Davis be a WR2? Brown can if he is healthy but can he stay healthy? Gabe is a nice player but is he ready to take on that role?

The problem is that unlike in 2020 when the Bills had plenty of cap space the types of proven players you are trading for aren't usually on rookie or more affordable deals. They are typically players on their 5th year option or last year of their rookie deals or very early into their second contract. Players that are either asking for huge extensions or on big deals. So while I wouldn't be opposed to a trade using the 30th overall pick I am not sure what players out there fit the bill of a dynamic pass rusher or pass catcher on a cheap contract.

I get the sentiment behind the idea, but in the end things have to even out somehow. Having a QB is such an advantage no reason to make it even more of an advantage.

The Bills found a QB the hardest piece is found, but now you are looking at those last key pieces.

That would only widen the advantage and gap between teams with great QB's and teams without one effectively you would be gifting KC 20 plus million in cap space annually when they already have Mahomes who is a large advantage. The large QB cap numbers are part of the competitive balance of the league. It is still an advantage to have a good QB even on a big contract but at least when you have to cut deep into your cap to keep them it gives other teams a chance.

I like Star to help get Ed Oliver back to playing a more pass rushing position. I think Star could move the needle. Ford will compete with Ike to start at guard but given how well Ike played I don't think he makes much more of an impact but Ford at worst adds depth to the O-line. Whomever isn't starting at LG goes to the bench and gives the O-line starting guard play off the bench unless Mongo walks and they have to play both guys at the guard position.

The better solution is to borrow from future cap increases to smooth out the cap to keep it at around 195 to 205 which would give teams 20-30 million more to work with. Or do what the NBA did and keep the cap as it normally would have been but have the players keep a percentage of their pay in escrow and then at the end of the season the escrow gets either paid back to the players or the owners depending on how the league does revenue wise. It would be the most sensible mechanism.

For once my main hope is that the team simply retains its players and then uses the draft to add the 1-2 pieces and depth needed to get the team over the top. I hope the cap can be set at 205 million which would hopefully allow for them to resign Milano, D.Williams, Mongo, Levi, Ty (I don't know why everyone is so willing to let him go he is a great depth swing tackle), Roberts, and T.Jones. I assume a few cuts will take place (V.Butler and Lee Smith would be 9 million saved) but I hope they mostly keep the roster intact free up space by restructuring guys like Klein, Brown, Hughes, Addison, Mitch and Jefferson. I would love to bring back Mac and Barkley but I think you have replacements in Fromm and Hodgins on the roster, although if the Bills get priced out of Roberts, maybe bring back Mac to field kicks. Then use the 30th overall pick to find an edge rusher and the 62nd overall pick to fill another possible need. Use the rest of your picks to fill out depth and get young players at positions where you are older. It will be interesting to see if the Bills try to run it back or if larger scales cuts are done. I think it is likely we see a surprise cut or two but hopefully they can keep the core intact and add those few pieces needed.

The WR corps was really banged up and going against a good but not great secondary. Beasley was playing on a semi-broken leg and John Brown had been banged up all season. Then Davis gets banged up against the Ravens and Diggs gets seemingly dinged up against KC. The Chiefs were then able to bring pressure due to the good coverage and make the Bills offense one dimensional (due to KC's offense putting up so many points.) The Bills O-line was going to be under a lot of stress even without the blitzing due to Jones and Clark so once the blitzing commenced the team was just not going to be able to protect Josh enough. The WR corps not being 100% is the domino that collapsed the chance of winning. Yes the bad defensive game plan didn't help but you need to put up 30 against KC. This team got unlucky in a lot of ways but still even if the Bills came out and had all 4 of their top receivers healthy it likely wasn't going to be their day. I think in the end the Bills are going to have to hope for a cap of 195-205 million and try and run it back and get help via the draft. Resign Mongo, D.Williams, Milano, Levi, Ty, Roberts, T.Jones, Barkley and possibly Mac and then use picks 30 and 62 to try and get a edge rusher and another TE to platoon with Knox, use the rest of the draft picks to sure up depth and get younger in areas where the team is older. It is unlikely the Bills won't lose someone of value via free agency. But if they can keep the core 4 free agents of D.Williams, Mongo, Levi and Milano and retain some of the depth players I think they can shoot their shot in the draft to get those last pieces needed and replace the depth. Run it back with 1-2 pieces added and things could pan out.

Knox to me developed into a starting caliber TE. But I am not sure if he will ever be a dynamic top 5TE like a Kelce, Kittle or Waller. And it sucks that a dynamic TE might be the last piece missing on offense. It also is unfortunate that a dynamic edge rusher might also be the last piece missing to the defense. Both of those pieces are hard to find.

I don't think vastly different changes in on field talent are needed. If they can keep Mongo and D.Williams on the line and have Ford compete with Ike for the LG spot I think the team will have the talent needed on the o-line. Whereas the RB situation I don't think needs to change much. Moss and Singletary are a capable combo, I particularly like Moss as the primary back and Singletary as a good back to take 35% of the work. But what needs to change is the balance in the coaching staffs approach to the ground game esp in worsening conditions. I don't think this team is suddenly going to get more balanced and be a highly impactful rush offense. But I can see this team running just a bit more to have a rushing attack that is primed and ready for a deep playoff run. It is more so on the coaching to scheme better runs and develop that power game when needed.

Wallace should hopefully be brought back, but I do feel that they will give Dane a chance to start and be on the depth chart. Gaines is another guy they will give a chance on the depth chart. I also think they will sign another veteran reclamation project like Norman and another late round pick. Which would leave the Bills with Tre, T.Johnson, Wallace, Dane, EJ, vet project and a late round pick on the roster for 2021. Seems solid.

I agree 13-3 (a 3 game improvement from the previous year), division title, a sweep of the division, 24 year old QB who had a runner up to the MVP season and two playoff victories at home is a great season in almost any context. Yes this team will be up against the cap with many pending free agents and the team still needs to add two critical components to the team (a dominant edge rusher and a pass catcher). But this team will be back with a strong team next year and if McBeane can pull off some cap magic and a solid draft the Bills might come back with an even stronger team. The future is bright now let's all become cap nerds.

If he does ask for a new deal I think they will structure the hit to come in 2022. They have too much of a cap crunch to give Diggs a huge raise in his cap number.

Mahomes contract will crunch the cap for KC and likely they are going to have to make cuts to the defense. They feature two massive contracts along the D-line with Clark and Jones and another big contract in the secondary in the Honey Badger. They aren't going to be able to field an offense that pays their QB 40ish million and Tyreke Hill, Travis Kelce and Fisher 45 million and still have enough cap to pay Jones, Clark and Mathieu 66 million. Between those 7 contracts you have nearly 155 million in cap commitments to those players going forward. KC will likely make the sacrifices on defense as you have to keep Mahomes happy with his weapons and protection. So you have to make the cuts to depth and defense in order to keep your franchise QB happy. Which means teams will force KC to win shootouts consistently and that's super hard to do in the playoffs.

The Bills have to find a way to have an offense that can win in a shoot out against KC. The big issue I see with the Bills is that the pieces the Bills need to get in order to over the hump are going to be hard to find. On offense finding a second dynamic receiving option (preferably a tight end) along with retaining Mongo and Williams is not going to be easy without losing Milano, Wallace and other role players like Ty and Roberts. On defense the Bills need to retain Milano and Wallace while getting a prime time edge rusher. Retaining those players on both sides of the ball while getting a prime time edge rusher and offensive weapon is not going to be easy. This draft and free agency period is going to be critical. Can McBeane find a way to retain Mongo, D.Williams, Milano, Levi, and other key depth and specialist players like Roberts and Ty? Can McBeane then at picks 30 and 62 find a way to add a couple of more pieces to add the punch needed on offense and on the pass rush? It is going to be a tall order, even if the cap is optimistically set at 205 million the Bills will only have about 32 million to work with and while there is some fat on the roster to be cut and restructured to free up an additional 20ish million that only leaves the Bills with about 52 million to work with in a best case scenario. It is a tall task for McBeane let's see if they are up to it.

I think no matter what 2018 was a doomed year, even if the team had Tyrod or a better QB option in front of Josh it is most likely Josh would have gotten 6 to 10 starts that year. That season would have been lost half way in or just about and then you have to put the rookie in to see what you got.

I don't see the Bills loading any of Allen's extension onto 2021, I think they load some money onto the 2022 fifth year option year to spread out the hit. But 2021 is a crunch and the team should take advantage of the window to win and try to retain as many key players as possible.

I have no idea. 175 is the minimum which if the cap is 175 the Bills will only be about 2.5 million under.