Allen and sacks this season

[dave mcbride]

Sacks are really bad. Usually, they are drive killers. Luckily for the Bills, Josh Allen is really good at avoiding sacks. Like, REALLY good. And it's not as if he's lost a step. Yet he is being sacked at a very high rate this season: 7.1 percent, his highest rate since 2019. His offensive line is both very good and healthy, so I'm not blaming either him or the line. At any rate, note the rates in the last column below. He led the league in 2023 with the lowest sack rate, yet was even better last year: a ridiculously low 2.82 percent. Derek Carr was somehow the league leader but he missed nearly half the season, so I'm giving the crown to Allen. That means he basically led the league two years in a row at being the best QB in avoiding sacks. His sack rate this year is perhaps the strongest indictment there is of wide receiver talent and passing game design. Jeff Ulbrich taught the league that you can relentlessly blitz Allen (which the Dolphins did yesterday) without a ton of fear given the wide receiver talent and (possibly; I don't know enough) the passing game scheme. With regard to scheme, is Allen not being given answers in blitz situations? He used to absolutely DESTROY blitzes. Not this year.

 

[Yobogoya!]

On the flip side, he's at a career high in completion percentage. Whatever that's worth. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

The oline has been absolutely terrible in each of the losses it is so bizarre…very Jekyll and Hyde from those guys.  there’s been a few misdiagnosing blitzes type situations too but every qb has a few of those 

[ScotSHO]

It might be the thing about the devoid WR talent.  But I won't know until Sal & Beane tell me.

[thenorthremembers]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Sacks are really bad. Usually, they are drive killers. Luckily for the Bills, Josh Allen is really good at avoiding sacks. Like, REALLY good. And it's not as if he's lost a step. Yet he is being sacked at a very high rate this season: 7.1 percent, his highest rate since 2019. His offensive line is both very good and healthy, so I'm not blaming either him or the line. At any rate, note the rates in the last column below. He led the league in 2023 with the lowest sack rate, yet was even better last year: a ridiculously low 2.82 percent. Derek Carr was somehow the league leader but he missed nearly half the season, so I'm giving the crown to Allen. That means he basically led the league two years in a row at being the best QB in avoiding sacks. His sack rate this year is perhaps the strongest indictment there is of wide receiver talent and passing game design. Jeff Ulbrich taught the league that you can relentlessly blitz Allen (which the Dolphins did yesterday) without a ton of fear given the wide receiver talent and (possibly; I don't know enough) the passing game scheme. With regard to scheme, is Allen not being given answers in blitz situations? He used to absolutely DESTROY blitzes. Not this year.

 

 

He has to hold the ball because no one is open.  Heard a stat this morning that he held the ball 3.5 seconds on average per drop back yesterday.  The line is pretty good, but on top of wideout not getting open, the right side of the line in particular is great in run blocking but does have some pass blocking issues.

Edited 2 hours ago by thenorthremembers

[Ray Stonada]

It really bums me out to see him struggling like this. We NEED to get him some receivers and a scheme that lets him shine.

 

Your point is perfect. The guy leading the league in least sacks the last two years didn't magically change. Downfield, no one is uncovering, not even hot routes.

 

It's an epic fail. Couple times yesterday, Samuel looks like he's jogging while Josh is running for his life. Keon has no field awareness. Elijah Moore seems a bit better but not much. And Palmer out. 

[BillMafia716ix]

Just now, Yobogoya! said:

On the flip side, he's at a career high in completion percentage. Whatever that's worth. 

 
Means absolutely nothing. They’ve turned him into game managing QB who just deeks and dunks down the field. 

[Orlando Buffalo]

One thing I have noticed is he is not running with confidence, yesterday he had two moments where I expected him to rip large runs and he was either sacked or minimal gain on those two because he hesitated 

[Gregg]

At least the Bills don't have to deal with HC Todd Bowles and his blitz happy Bucs defense anytime soon. 

[Yobogoya!]

2 minutes ago, BillMafia716ix said:

 
Means absolutely nothing. They’ve turned him into game managing QB who just deeks and dunks down the field. 

 

Yeah that's what I meant with "whatever that's worth" lol

 

Biggest arm canon in the league and we draw up screen routes at the line of scrimmage. SMDH. 

[oldmanfan]

Think you’re on to something.  If you compare the receiver group this year to last year, it really isn’t much different.  When Palmer is back he is roughly equivalent to Cooper, maybe even better.  Shakir is Shakir, Coleman is Coleman.  Maybe the biggest change is losing Hollins; I thought Shavers would move in there but he hasn’t.  And you have Moore this year.  But the production has fallen off.

 

I have mentioned this several times since yesterday, but last year we ran the formation that had 4 guys bunched on one side and a 5th receiver split out to the other side.  And it gave other teams fits.  Commentators such as Romo and Collinsworth talked a lot about how defenses had no answer for it.  But unless I’m blind, I haven’t seen it much this year.

 

Granted we could have a better group, but to me it is about Brady not getting his job done.  And as a result Josh either has to throw it away or take sacks.

[dave mcbride]

Update:

He's 20th in the league this season and slightly worse than league average. The company directly beneath him is mostly (but not entirely) pretty bad. Maye gets sacked a lot, but I think that's pretty typical for a second year qb.

Edited 1 hour ago by dave mcbride

[Billz4ever]

8 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

The oline has been absolutely terrible in each of the losses it is so bizarre…very Jekyll and Hyde from those guys.  there’s been a few misdiagnosing blitzes type situations too but every qb has a few of those 

 

Dawkins got cooked on a few plays yesterday that were pretty ugly. Miami doesn't have a good pass rush to begin with, were near the bottom of the league in sacks, and were playing without Chop Robinson and just traded Jaelan Phillips.

Edited 1 hour ago by Billz4ever

[philholbroo]

The league knows mcdermott/Brady want to play a safe offensive plan. The defense knows the wr are running short routes or screens. So just 3.5 seconds of tough or press coverage is all they need. Then you get to the qb quickly after that. The sacks don't appear to be jail breaks through the line.

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Billz4ever said:

 

Dawkins got cooked on a few plays yesterday that were pretty ugly. Miami doesn't have a good pass rush to begin with, were near the bottom of the league in sacks, and were playing without Chop Robinson and just traded Jaelan Phillips.

Chubb is a really good player. I'm always pretty impressed when I watch him. The other thing about Chubb is that when I think of him, I can only think of Josh Allen. John Elway had a chance to take Allen, who was playing next door at Wyoming, and instead chose a defensive end at the #4 overall pick.

[Low Positive]

He won't take risks with the football in most games. He's taking sacks instead of attempting throws that might lead to INTs. Guys are getting NFL open, but he's waiting for them to be college open. They've turned Brett Favre into a game manager in an attempt to fashion a Tom Brady. LET JOSH BE JOSH!

[The Jokeman]

6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Think you’re on to something.  If you compare the receiver group this year to last year, it really isn’t much different.  When Palmer is back he is roughly equivalent to Cooper, maybe even better.  Shakir is Shakir, Coleman is Coleman.  Maybe the biggest change is losing Hollins; I thought Shavers would move in there but he hasn’t.  And you have Moore this year.  But the production has fallen off.

 

I have mentioned this several times since yesterday, but last year we ran the formation that had 4 guys bunched on one side and a 5th receiver split out to the other side.  And it gave other teams fits.  Commentators such as Romo and Collinsworth talked a lot about how defenses had no answer for it.  But unless I’m blind, I haven’t seen it much this year.

 

Granted we could have a better group, but to me it is about Brady not getting his job done.  And as a result Josh either has to throw it away or take sacks.

Maybe the production fallen off because I don't know Kincaid's improved and Josh passed to him more or I don't know we're running Cook more. Or I don't people want to claim when we have the worst WR core in the NFL which is simply not true. Sure we don't have a stud but 1-5 am sure are guys 3-5 are on par to most team's depth guys. Are the stats there? No but then again Allen's 20th in pass attempts this season which might be why nobody's getting more than 4 receptions a game. 

[Artful Dodger]

12 minutes ago, ScotSHO said:

It might be the thing about the devoid WR talent.  But I won't know until Sal & Beane tell me.

 

But did the Bills have any more wide receiver talent last year than they do this year?  They lost the guy who liked to play in bare feet and eat with his hands and picked up a couple of JAG's, but other than that, it's pretty much the same.  

[corta765]

11 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

It really bums me out to see him struggling like this. We NEED to get him some receivers and a scheme that lets him shine.

 

Your point is perfect. The guy leading the league in least sacks the last two years didn't magically change. Downfield, no one is uncovering, not even hot routes.

 

It's an epic fail. Couple times yesterday, Samuel looks like he's jogging while Josh is running for his life. Keon has no field awareness. Elijah Moore seems a bit better but not much. And Palmer out. 

 

I agree and the WR lack of help is beyond upsetting.

 

With that said what magnifies their issues and lack of action even more is that Josh & the offense last year had basically no turnovers/sacks/penalties. They were historically good. This year its back to normal, so it feels more magnified the errors and offensive issues. Last year Josh & Cook don't fumble & Josh doesn't throw a pick, they win 23-19 and everyone goes WTF... at least we won though. It is the Jets game all over again which wasn't pretty but they got the job done.

 

My biggest issue yesterday was the lack of energy and compete from the offense especially but the team in general. But the other flaws are just maddening because it is impossible to not get sacked/have that few of turnovers/penalties etc.. and we did nothing to balance that out on offense from players (WR) to scheme or play calling. 

 

I can see why Josh looks like this because since the NE game it has been many self-inflicted mistakes and he is absolutely pressing to make something happen. They are also a team that cannot play from behind at this point because of personnel issues so yea he is feeling that too.

[fridge]

When the offense can't scheme guys open, and pretends it's the 1960s with its 3 TE sets, obvious passing situations become 10x harder. I'd expect more sacks as we play better defenses down the stretch.

 

The instinct is to blame Brady, and he deserves a share of it in spades, but this whole philosophy comes from the top. McDermott loves this *****.