Would you rather playoff seeding scenario?

[Alphadawg7]

Literally, the 1 seed gets the easier schedule, what are we even talking about here?  What we are doing in this thread is manufacturing scenarios to manipulate it in a way that the 5 seed faces easier competition.  Does anyone really believe KC isn't making the playoffs?  I find it interesting in a thread that keeps saying KC and Balt are betting faves to win their division that the counter scenario is neither makes the playoffs.  The odds of or neither of them making the playoffs is pretty much a pipe dream unless injuries happen.  

 

The reality is that whether we get the 1 seed or the 5 seed, KC is certainly going to make the playoffs.  Baltimore could also still make the playoffs if they can stay healthy.  

 

So there is almost no chance what so ever that the 5 seed this year produces an easier path to the Super Bowl than the 1 seed.  Like its almost statistically impossible to happen.  And even if it did, that math and statistics will still prove playing one less game and both games at home has a higher chance of reaching a SB than 3 games with 2 to 3 on the road.  

Edited 8 hours ago by Alphadawg7

[BillsShredder83]

5 hours ago, Einstein said:

1 more game for injury and fluky stuff to happen though. Plus no home field.

Tough choice.

Yep. I fully get the argument fot 5 seed... but the bye week of rest with this team is too good to pass up.

 

Its a 2 goal swing: 

-1 week off

-1 less week to get hurt more 

 

-McD pretty outstanding record after a bye weeks

-Home field 

-KC + Balt not scaring me as much as normal (ive also thought this about kc atleastttt 2, maybe 3 last playoff games too though 🤣)

 

I took emotions out for decision but now that ive made up my mind already, AFCCG at home in Buff, even though i def wouldn't be able to make it, would really be cherry on top. What a beautiful scenic send-off. Imagine that crap that would be ripped out of stadium walls, seats and concrete after that kinda finish 😂😂😂

[Gregg]

Baltimore is 3-5 so they have some catching up to do if they want to make the playoffs. This week at Minnesota isn't an easy one. I do think the Ravens will win this game now that they are healthy, but an upset is certainly possible. Definitely rooting for the Vikings to win so the Ravens fall to 3-6. 

[PrimeTime101]

sorry its to soon for this for me lol. but i love the energy!

[folz]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Literally, the 1 seed gets the easier schedule, what are we even talking about here?  What we are doing in this thread is manufacturing scenarios to manipulate it in a way that the 5 seed faces easier competition.  Does anyone really believe KC isn't making the playoffs?  I find it interesting in a thread that keeps saying KC and Balt are betting faves to win their division that the counter scenario is neither makes the playoffs.  The odds of or neither of them making the playoffs is pretty much a pipe dream unless injuries happen.  

 

The reality is that whether we get the 1 seed or the 5 seed, KC is certainly going to make the playoffs.  Baltimore could also still make the playoffs if they can stay healthy.  

 

So there is almost no chance what so ever that the 5 seed this year produces an easier path to the Super Bowl than the 1 seed.  Like its almost statistically impossible to happen.  And even if it did, that math and statistics will still prove playing one less game and both games at home has a higher chance of reaching a SB than 3 games with 2 to 3 on the road.  

 

Agreed, in reality, you go for the #1 seed no matter what and let the rest of the chips fall as they may. A team would be insane for purposefully giving up the one seed for the five seed, even if it appeared to be an easier road. And you are also correct that a scenario where both KC and Balt are out of the playoffs is unlikely.

 

But, in this hypothetical situation, I think not having to face Jackson/Henry and Pat/KC---possibly back-to-back (granted at home) would be an easier path than even three road games vs. Rodgers/Pitt, Nix/Denver, Jones/Colts. [Maybe it's based on past trauma 🙂, but we often have a real tough go against Derrick Henry and obviously vs. Pat/Reid/Kelce too, while none of those other QBs scare me.]

[Allen2Moulds]

I also voted for the one seed for several reasons.

 

1. One less playoff game. In recent years, injuries have killed us in the game leading up to the Chiefs game. It would be nice for once, to be healthy and rested.

2. I don't want to live in continued fear of the Chiefs. Slaying the dragon would feel almost as sweet as winning it all. Certainly would be a big step. Sick of hearing that we can't beat them in the playoffs.

3. In the scenario laid out, Chiefs would likely end up as the 3, and the Ravens as the 4. Which would mean that the Chiefs would play the Colts. Also I could see someone like the Broncos as the 5 spot, knock out the Ravens for us.

[NeverOutNick]

What a great topic! I could be talked into either side, but gun to head, I just wanna have the number one seed for once so give me that and hopefully the Chiefs and ravens get knocked out before the AFC championship game when we’d have to face them. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

My overall choice would be the 3rd or 4th seed with Chiefs and Ravens out of playoffs.  Having to beat NE in playoffs on the road wouldn't worry me and being the 3rd seed, good chance the conf championship would still be in Buffalo as I already knocked out the #1 or #2 in NE.  Plus then would have at least one home game as a division champ

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No offense, but all math and statistics say other wise, and if you polled every GM and HC in the NFL they would agree that the 1 seed in its current format is a SUBSTANTIAL advantage and its why every single teams primary goal is to win that if they are in contention for it.  You will never (and never have) see a team intentionally give up a seed with a bye in it because they think it gives them an "easier" path in the playoffs.  

 

The mere idea of forcing a 3rd playoff game, guaranteeing 2 are on the road, over a bye and 2 home games is pretty silly TBH.

No offense taken

 

You don't seem to understand the thread

 

I'd rather take the 5seed w zero chance of having to play either KC or Ravens to get to the SB. You would prefer having to play likely at least one of them for some reason

[Alphadawg7]

11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

No offense taken

 

You don't seem to understand the thread

 

I'd rather take the 5seed w zero chance of having to play either KC or Ravens to get to the SB. You would prefer having to play likely at least one of them for some reason

 

For some reason?  I have made the reason very clear.  1 less game, and both games at home with no road travels for the team giving them more rest and more time to prepare is an obvious advantage.  Not to mention, we have beaten KC more than we lost to them, and just handedly beat them last week.  We have beaten the Ravens more than we have lost to them, including beating them every time we played them in the playoffs.  But you are for some reason so scared of them that you would rather play more games, make the team travel giving them less rest and less prep time too.  Not to mention, less time to mend injuries from a long season.  

 

There is no logic that makes that make sense for me, literally can't fathom how that is "easier".  To collectively be afraid of two teams who have a 5-4 record and a 3-5 record that we already both beat this year and also beat the Ravens last year in the playoffs.  We also should have won the AFCCG too, but the KC game got flipped by refs when they changed a 3 point loss by doing an 11-15 point score flip in the 4th quarter when they twice took away a Bills first down on the same series within 2 plays of each other.  

 

So no, I don't fear KC or Balt, especially not this year and not enough to take on an extra playoff game and insure they are all on the road.  And quite frankly, the "alternatives" to KC and Balt are not exactly slam dunks themselves, and you have to win 3 times and on the road too.  

Edited 7 hours ago by Alphadawg7

[JustHewIt]

Shout out for this poll, quality sports bar talk, its a 50/50 split with both sides arguing that their path is a no brainer

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

For some reason?  I have made the reason very clear.  1 less game, and both games at home with no road travels for the team giving them more rest and more time to prepare is an obvious advantage.  Not to mention, we have beaten KC more than we lost to them, and just handedly beat them last week.  We have beaten the Ravens more than we have lost to them, including beating them every time we played them in the playoffs.  But you are for some reason so scared of them that you would rather play more games, make the team travel giving them less rest and less prep time too.  Not to mention, less time to mend injuries from a long season.  

 

There is no logic that makes that make sense for me, literally can't fathom how that is "easier".  To collectively be afraid of two teams who have a 5-4 record and a 3-5 record that we already both beat this year and also beat the Ravens last year in the playoffs.  We also should have won the AFCCG too, but the KC game got flipped by refs when they changed a 3 point loss by doing an 11-15 point score flip in the 4th quarter when they twice took away a Bills first down on the same series within 2 plays of each other.  

 

So no, I don't fear KC or Balt, especially not this year and not enough to take on an extra playoff game and insure they are all on the road.  And quite frankly, the "alternatives" to KC and Balt are not exactly slam dunks themselves, and you have to win 3 times and on the road too.  

😂😂scared lol

 

yes, i would prefer playing any combination of Broncos/Steelers/Colts/Chargers for three road games than two home games vs one if not both of Chiefs/Ravens. its not even a question for me

[Fan in Chicago]

7 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This came out of a conversation in another thread but got me thinking. Would you rather be the 1 seed AND have the Chiefs & Ravens as division winners OR be the 5 seed & the Chiefs & Ravens both miss the playoffs? For me, I think that the Bills are the AFC favorite in either scenario but curious as to what others think. 
 

P.S. Try to leave out the emotions/nostalgia of “it would be really cool to play the AFC Championship as the last game at Higmark.” Let’s keep this as, “what is the easier path to a title?”

I was tempted to vote for Option 1 just because I dont want any "yeaa... buts" that would come from a Superbowl win with scenario 2.

Then I thought the yaa buts will be a distant memory and what sticks in everyone's head is the SB winner. I also believe that going through the likes of Colts, Chargers, Patriots etc will be easier from a match up and psychological perspective. 

I chose Option 2

Edited 7 hours ago by Fan in Chicago

[transplantbillsfan]

I'm legitimately shocked at the vote.

 

People would prefer us almost certainly having to face the Chiefs and/or Ravens in the playoffs (even if it's at home) over us playing any other combination of AFC team anywhere on the road 3 times?

 

I get that it's one more game that you'll be playing and it will be on the road, but do you guys really think they'd be more likely to lose any of those games on the road than they would be to lose against the Chiefs and Ravens?

 

Is this a "to be the best you've got to beat the best!!!" argument????  %^$ that!!!  Gimme Ws please and the easiest path to a Lombardi!

[Alphadawg7]

29 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

😂😂scared lol

 

yes, i would prefer playing any combination of Broncos/Steelers/Colts/Chargers for three road games than two home games vs one if not both of Chiefs/Ravens. its not even a question for me

 

Yeah, like I said, scared - thats the literal definition of scared.  Well too bad for you then given that there is almost no way that happens to where neither Chiefs and Ravens make playoffs.  The entire premise of this thread is based on something almost certainly not going to happen.  

 

And here is the kicker - There is no reason the Bills cant be the 1 seed even if Ravens and Chiefs by some weird circumstance both missed the playoffs.  I get it is a "what would you prefer" thread, but I prefer we trade for Justin Jefferson too, still not likely to happen.  

 

Still, the statistically correct answer is always take the 1 seed, even if the alternative is not having both Chiefs and Ravens in playoffs.  Neither team is what they were last year.  

Edited 6 hours ago by Alphadawg7

[RiotAct]

1 hour ago, BillsShredder83 said:

 

I took emotions out for decision but now that ive made up my mind already, AFCCG at home in Buff, even though i def wouldn't be able to make it, would really be cherry on top. What a beautiful scenic send-off. Imagine that crap that would be ripped out of stadium walls, seats and concrete after that kinda finish 😂😂😂

I’m totally taking a few of the condiment dispensers.

[DaVinci]

One seed all the way, but it's not going to happen. I dont know if we can field a championship caliber Defense for 3 strait games.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Literally, the 1 seed gets the easier schedule, what are we even talking about here?  What we are doing in this thread is manufacturing scenarios to manipulate it in a way that the 5 seed faces easier competition.  Does anyone really believe KC isn't making the playoffs?  I find it interesting in a thread that keeps saying KC and Balt are betting faves to win their division that the counter scenario is neither makes the playoffs.  The odds of or neither of them making the playoffs is pretty much a pipe dream unless injuries happen.  

 

The reality is that whether we get the 1 seed or the 5 seed, KC is certainly going to make the playoffs.  Baltimore could also still make the playoffs if they can stay healthy.  

 

So there is almost no chance what so ever that the 5 seed this year produces an easier path to the Super Bowl than the 1 seed.  Like its almost statistically impossible to happen.  And even if it did, that math and statistics will still prove playing one less game and both games at home has a higher chance of reaching a SB than 3 games with 2 to 3 on the road.  

No one said that this is what’s likely. It just said the betting favorites (which is inarguably a fact). DraftKings has Baltimore at -145 & Pittsburgh +135 & Denver at +110 & KC +145 (so not favorites).
 

This is a hypothetical. That’s what we do here It was never intended to be “will this or won’t this happen.” HYPOTHETICALLY, “which is a better path.” The board is pretty much split right down the middle. Both sides are perfectly reasonable. No one is suggesting that either scenario would happen. Put that aside and what’s the best option for the Bills to get where they need to be? 

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

People would prefer us almost certainly having to face the Chiefs and/or Ravens in the playoffs (even if it's at home) over us playing any other combination of AFC team anywhere on the road 3 times?

 

We lost to the Falcons and Patriots, while beating the Ravens and Chiefs. 

[Governor]

If Chiefs somehow lose to the Colts, I think it’s very likely they don’t get in at all.