Game week thread - Chiefs at Bills

[90sBills]

48 minutes ago, Sweats said:

Here's my theory.........we beat KC every year in the regular season and then lose to them in the post season, so it wouldn't break my heart if it was the other way around this year.

Hope it’s not like 2020 when we lost the regular season game at OP and the playoffs game at Arrowhead. 

[Goin Breakdown]

Finally the game we've been holding all of our cards for. We'll finally see what The Bills really look like!!

[Success]

I'm ALREADY annoyed about the "Bills always beat them in the regular & lose to them in the playoffs" narrative.

 

Like Manning never eventually got past the Pats, or Jordan never ended up getting past the Pistons, or basically an endless list of sports narratives being true until they weren't.

 

[Southern McButterpants]

1 hour ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

The point of this game is to put as little on film as possible.

 

I don't care if we run 40 halfback dives and lose 100-0.

To win in the payoffs, one must get to the playoffs.

 

[TFBillsfan]

1 hour ago, Sweats said:

Here's my theory.........we beat KC every year in the regular season and then lose to them in the post season, so it wouldn't break my heart if it was the other way around this year.

How about we beat them in the regular season AND post season if we play them! 

[Nephilim17]

Without Palmer, I think the Chiefs will load up on the run/short pass and not care about the deep shots. I'm not confident about this one.

Everyone who said they'd rather have the Ravens win their Chiefs game a few weeks ago was foolish. The Chiefs will continue to be a threat to the Bills.

Edited 4 hours ago by Nephilim17

[ROCKPILE63]

Thinking 2021 Playoff Gabe Davis…

201 yards on eight catches, and scoring an NFL record four receiving touchdowns, one can dream.

[technobot]

We seem to have another gear for them in the regular season in recent years, and we're at home. Another close game in what's become our defining series.

[transplantbillsfan]

With Oliver now probably out for the year it's become pretty important to know the timeliness on DQ and Sanders getting back. Unfortunately I don't think that's in the next week or 2 which makes me think we're trading for a DT. That kinda sucks. Really think WR is more pressing. Be nice if Palmer also got back.

 

Injuries... ugh 

[corta765]

Should be an interesting game and I think it will be a weird one that ends like 23-18 or 25-21. The Bills will be dogs and eager to prove on D especially they can be up for it. Allen typically is in his zone for KC so he will do some things. The Chiefs have been hot for a bit and I expect they win tonight to be on 3 game winning streak and five of the last six. Where it gets interesting is their offensive line is messy right now and like the Bills they have had a lot of night games including tonight so they will come in with one less day. 

 

For the Bills I would feel better about their chances knowing Palmer is a go, Kincaid is fully healthy, and the D has Milano/Bernard. I see this as another game (fans will hate this) which the Bills want the ball to dictate pace and eat clock which is why I think we get some weird score by the end of it. If ever there was a game for the offense to let the passing game loose it is now and maybe they finally do a bit but will see.

 

For the Chiefs I think you want to get the ball first and get points early so the Bills can't sit in their gameplan. If KC can get up even 10-7 or something where they force Buffalo to chase I can see them pressing this quicky to a 28-20 finish. A lot in this game will hinge on how that offensive line is in terms of health but more importantly if the Bills can actually get some true pressure to Mahomes or not. Hariston is a nice wrinkle for BUF, but the Chiefs still should be able to use the speed of Worthy and Rice to push the Buffalo secondary.

[Big Turk]

Allen could claim the all-time QB rushing TD mark (including postseason) with a rushing TD against the Chiefs. He is currently tied with Cam Newton with 77.

Edited 2 hours ago by Big Turk

[KOKBILLS]

Pressure Mahomes...keep him contained...tackle well... Bills win...

Don't and it's going to be a long day.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Hairston looked good. At first I was thinking save him for the Dolphins. Now I say trial by fire. Let him start and play the whole game. If they lose, I'd rather lose with him than lose with White.

 

And I know I'm a broken record, but please go no huddle early and often. I think that wil get Josh in a rhythm faster. You can still run the ball in the no huddle. Thurman did it for a decade. 

[Billsfanatic8989]

4 hours ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

The point of this game is to put as little on film as possible.

 

I don't care if we run 40 halfback dives and lose 100-0.

This. 

 

 

[Pete]

4 hours ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

The point of this game is to put as little on film as possible.

 

I don't care if we run 40 halfback dives and lose 100-0.

Why?  Do you think Andy Reid can learn something from Joe Brady?  😂 🤣 😂 

[zow2]

Here's the issue I have with the Chiefs game, and go ahead and flame away if you want.

 

I said this last season too...and the year before.  The KC regular season game tends to be our Super Bowl.  We all feel so good when we beat the Chiefs.   But the fact is, NO team is beating the Kansas City Chiefs with Mahomes, Reid, Spags, Kelce, Chris Jones..etc. TWICE in a season.  They are too good and will avenge any regular season loss.  You have one chance to beat them in a season.  So if you want to use up that chance in the regular season game that's fine. But then they are losing the playoff game. If we think the Bills can avoid the Chiefs in the playoffs, then it's a moot point.

 

Why do I say all this when we (as fans) have no control over the outcome?  Not sure.  I just want to get it out there and preemptively lessen the bad feelings from a loss on Sunday.  I think in the long run it may give us the best chance to avenge it.

[beebe]

the chiefs are highly likely going to have to finish 11-6 to make the playoffs because they're currently in the back seat vs nearly the entire afc if they finish 10-7. assuming a win vs washington tonight, they'll be 5-3 entering their bye week, with this remaining schedule:

 

Chiefs -1 at Bills (53% chance of win)

Chiefs -1 at Broncos (53%)

Chiefs -3.5 vs Colts (60%)

Chiefs -4.5 at Cowboys (63%)

Chiefs -6.5 vs Texans (68%)

Chiefs -5 vs Chargers (64%)

Chiefs -14 at Titans (85%)

Chiefs -4.5 vs Broncos (63%)

Chiefs -8.5 at Raiders (73%)

 

that equates to 5.82 expected wins on top of the 5 they'd have after winning tonight.

 

so 10.82 expected wins. 

 

11 wins, they're in. 

 

10 wins, they're very likely out. 

 

the chargers and broncos have easier schedules than the chiefs by comparison and both have tiebreakers over KC. the bills are a virtual playoff lock. the patriots could lose 5 of their final 9 games and would make the playoffs 86% of the time (per NYT bot). the colts are already at 7 wins. the afc north will likely produce just one playoff team. the jaguars are the shakiest of the playoff contenders but could be 5-3 with a win vs raiders and still get to play the titans twice as well as the jets (and have beaten KC head to head). 

 

the bills could deliver a serious blow to kc's playoff chances. 

 

16 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Here's the issue I have with the Chiefs game, and go ahead and flame away if you want.

 

I said this last season too...and the year before.  The KC regular season game tends to be our Super Bowl.  We all feel so good when we beat the Chiefs.   But the fact is, NO team is beating the Kansas City Chiefs with Mahomes, Reid, Spags, Kelce, Chris Jones..etc. TWICE in a season.  They are too good and will avenge any regular season loss.  You have one chance to beat them in a season.  So if you want to use up that chance in the regular season game that's fine. But then they are losing the playoff game. If we think the Bills can avoid the Chiefs in the playoffs, then it's a moot point.

 

Tom Brady/Patriots beat the Chiefs in the 2018 regular season and again in the AFC title game that same year. 

 

Joe Burrow/Bengals beat the Chiefs in the 2021 regular season and again in the AFC title game that same year. 

 

 

[TheWei44]

14 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Here's the issue I have with the Chiefs game, and go ahead and flame away if you want.

 

I said this last season too...and the year before.  The KC regular season game tends to be our Super Bowl.  We all feel so good when we beat the Chiefs.   But the fact is, NO team is beating the Kansas City Chiefs with Mahomes, Reid, Spags, Kelce, Chris Jones..etc. TWICE in a season.  They are too good and will avenge any regular season loss.  You have one chance to beat them in a season.  So if you want to use up that chance in the regular season game that's fine. But then they are losing the playoff game. If we think the Bills can avoid the Chiefs in the playoffs, then it's a moot point.

 

Why do I say all this when we (as fans) have no control over the outcome?  Not sure.  I just want to get it out there and preemptively lessen the bad feelings from a loss on Sunday.  I think in the long run it may give us the best chance to avenge it.

I have been on record saying that this "twice in one season" thing is mostly BS.  If I flip a coin and it's heads, I am just as likely to flip it again and have it be heads.  It's only after you flip it twice (or however many times) can you say, wow, getting heads twice happens 25% of the time.  That said, to the extent that there is learning and adjustment between the first and second games, and perhaps the revenge factor, then maybe the second game isn't independent of the first.  If that's the case, then it's not as clean as two coin flips (or similar analogy like rolling the dice).  But I imagine it's still close.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

5 hours ago, BillsFan619 said:

Time to put some separation between us and the Chiefs, fellas.
 

It’s good that we have an extra day of rest over them.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

I am wondering if it’s better to face the Chiefs coming off a W  than it will be with their division hopes on the line and 4-4 facing a losing record. 
 

To play devils advocate, it would be the ultimate chance for the Bills to make the Chiefs 4-5 losers and knock them further out of the division race. 5 losses is a slippery slope and no margin for error in the AFC. I choose this option every time 

Edited 1 hour ago by ChronicAndKnuckles

[fergie's ire]

11 minutes ago, beebe said:

the chiefs are highly likely going to have to finish 11-6 to make the playoffs because they're currently in the back seat vs nearly the entire afc if they finish 10-7. assuming a win vs washington tonight, they'll be 5-3 entering their bye week, with this remaining schedule:

 

Chiefs -1 at Bills (53% chance of win)

Chiefs -1 at Broncos (53%)

Chiefs -3.5 vs Colts (60%)

Chiefs -4.5 at Cowboys (63%)

Chiefs -6.5 vs Texans (68%)

Chiefs -5 vs Chargers (64%)

Chiefs -14 at Titans (85%)

Chiefs -4.5 vs Broncos (63%)

Chiefs -8.5 at Raiders (73%)

 

that equates to 5.82 expected wins on top of the 5 they'd have after winning tonight.

 

so 10.82 expected wins. 

 

11 wins, they're in. 

 

10 wins, they're very likely out. 

 

the chargers and broncos have easier schedules than the chiefs by comparison and both have tiebreakers over KC. the bills are a virtual playoff lock. the patriots could lose 5 of their final 9 games and would make the playoffs 86% of the time (per NYT bot). the colts are already at 7 wins. the afc north will likely produce just one playoff team. the jaguars are the shakiest of the playoff contenders but could be 5-3 with a win vs raiders and still get to play the titans twice as well as the jets (and have beaten KC head to head). 

 

the bills could deliver a serious blow to kc's playoff chances. 

 

 

Tom Brady/Patriots beat the Chiefs in the 2018 regular season and again in the AFC title game that same year. 

 

Joe Burrow/Bengals beat the Chiefs in the 2021 regular season and again in the AFC title game that same year. 

 

 

Put another way, the ONLY times teams have stopped them from getting to the Superbowl they first beat them in the regular season.