Joe B (The Athletic) on passing game problems (with data)

[boyst]

it was obvious in stadium to see there was no route running to get open. it was some fast breaks and some movement to hit small windows but josh was not biting on it. he was playing it safe and i was fine with it. 

 

but the play calls and designs to get guys open needs to improve.

[transient]

34 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Beane has provided 1 top quality receiver since he’s been here.  Every offseason it’s an issue. He brings in some JAGs who are soon gone.

 

what makes anyone believe he’s suddenly going to change?  He can’t even handle being reminded by the press about his WR blind spot.  
 

hes a baby

I used to think Beane was a good GM... I'm starting to realize he's actually much more like Kevyn Adams than I ever would have cared to admit.

[Success]

1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said:

If a trade for a wideout isnt announced today by 4pm its already too late.    They will not beat the Chiefs with no passing game. 

 

I suspect teams are waiting until closer to the deadline to drive up the bidding.  But fans here will NOT complain if we overpay on this one.  He should make a big offer for a BTJ (or any upgrade) that they can't say no to.

 

[All_Pro_Bills]

Just now, boyst said:

it was obvious in stadium to see there was no route running to get open. it was some fast breaks and some movement to hit small windows but josh was not biting on it. he was playing it safe and i was fine with it. 

 

but the play calls and designs to get guys open needs to improve.

I'm going to suggest this is at least half the problem. If I look at Moore and Samuel and their last seasons with their previous teams Moore caught 61 for 538 and Samuel 62 for 613. Not great but good. This with Winston/Watson and Sam Howell as their QB's. All significantly inferior to Allen. Did these guys suddenly forget how to get open when coming to the Bills? Or is the Bills passing game scheme and play calling just bad?

[starrymessenger]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

When Palmer comes back, we need to throw him the ball more and downfield.  That's what he was brought here to be.

Kincaid and Shakir need to be our other primary targets.

Elijah Moore is decent and I think needs to have the ball thrown to him more.  He needs more targets than Coleman.  

Moore can average 60 receptions a year in Cleveland but not much here?  He is a decent WR.

Cook needs to have more routes thrown to him as well.  

 

I don't see what value Coleman adds.  At this point, neither do I with Samuel.  

 

I agree with this. Actually I think we could get a lot more out of our receiver group than we do. Not saying they are great but they are surely better than their performance/production. To me Palmer is a solid #3, which I think is how he has generally been considered, Shakir is a good slot, Moore can properly fill the #4 and Kincaid, while not technically a wide receiver, is an important and capable weapon in the passing game. Coleman I continue to have hope for but clearly he is a developmental player. So what we lack is probably a #1 and maybe also a #2. We have a couple of backs who are capable of catching passes at short and intermediate field depth, but we don't use them that way.
But beyond the holes in the WR complement, the bigger problem is the scheme adopted for the passing game, although the two things are of course connected. It's quite apparent I think that the Bills decided while Diggs was here that not only would they become a run first team but that the passing game would conservatively support that approach. It was also part of the thinking underlying the drafting of Coleman instead of some of the other guys who were available. I don't know who exactly was responsible for this decision but it was a bad one even if Beane thought he could defend it. Maybe somebody should be fired.
We will see what they do. If they stick with it and stand pat we can forget having any dreams of a championship this year. Indeed it already may well be too late.

Edited 2 hours ago by starrymessenger

[thenorthremembers]

7 minutes ago, Success said:

 

I suspect teams are waiting until closer to the deadline to drive up the bidding.  But fans here will NOT complain if we overpay on this one.  He should make a big offer for a BTJ (or any upgrade) that they can't say no to.

 

 

I dont care if it costs two picks, or a pick and a player.   Coleman cannot start any longer.  

[transient]

9 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

Two things - Palmer’s snap count was low to begin with.  And, importantly, even without him they have to try something downfield.  The sweet spot is second and short.  They just have to try at some Point to loosen things up. 
 

I lied.  Theres three things.  That scramble drill yesterday where the earth moved a great distance around the sun and nobody got open is precisely why Gabe should be in the roster when healthy.  He’s good at that, and he can replace the redundant nothingness of one of Moore/Samuel.  
 

 

Hopefully they threw in a free bilateral hand transplant when he got his knee fixed?

[Ramza86]

38 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

In what universe would you pay your franchise QB $55MM per year to be a "game manager"

 

The funny thing is being a game manager is the final form of an Elite QB. Just hit the open guy, live to fight another play. 

 

Manage the game, be smart....sometimes youll have to be elite and do the elite thing but youd rather not have to do it all game.

 

 

[Shaw66]

Haven't read all the comments, but it seems that the gist of them is the Bills need some better receivers.  I'd like the Bills to have better receivers, too, but I'm not sure that's the problem. 

 

I'd suggest that Joe Brady and perhaps Sean McDermott are the problems. And I think there are some pretty simple statistics that demonstrate why:

 

In 4+ years in the league, playing on two lousy teams with lousy quarterbacks, Elijah Moore averaged 52 receptions for over 500 yards and 2 TDs over 17 games.  He is way below that average with the Bills and a HOF quarterback. He's on pace for 15 receptions and 200 yards. 

 

In his years in the league, playing his first seven on two lousy teams and with lousy quarterbacks, Curtis Samuel averaged 55 receptions for  over 500 yards and four TDs over 17 games. He is way below that average with the Bills and a HOF quarterback. He's on pace for 10 receptions and 100 yards. 

 

Somehow, coaches for the Jets and the Browns and the Panthers and Washingtons knew how to get the ball to these guys 600 yards per season, even though they didn't have Josh Allen throwing and they didn't have James Cook putting up 150 yards rushing. 

 

Neither one of those guys is world-beater, but the production for both of them declined significantly as soon as they arrived in Buffalo and began playing for Brady and McDermott. 

 

  

[corta765]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I don't see what value Coleman adds.  At this point, neither do I with Samuel.  

Coleman is EJ Manuel 2.0 at WR. Was brought in with expectations he won't ever hit but they want him to, the GM refuses to admit his error which is hurting the team now and the longer they go without admitting the mistake the worse it is going to be.

 

Samuel is what he is at this point. He has been here long enough that he just isn't a fit I guess.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

8 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

I'm going to suggest this is at least half the problem. If I look at Moore and Samuel and their last seasons with their previous teams Moore caught 61 for 538 and Samuel 62 for 613. Not great but good. This with Winston/Watson and Sam Howell as their QB's. All significantly inferior to Allen. Did these guys suddenly forget how to get open when coming to the Bills? Or is the Bills passing game scheme and play calling just bad?

I do think Moore will improve some over time I just don’t know if it’ll be fast enough to matter..  he seems physically skilled enough I just don’t think he has any sense of how his qb wants him to adjust his routes in a lot of situations

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

I'm going to suggest this is at least half the problem. If I look at Moore and Samuel and their last seasons with their previous teams Moore caught 61 for 538 and Samuel 62 for 613. Not great but good. This with Winston/Watson and Sam Howell as their QB's. All significantly inferior to Allen. Did these guys suddenly forget how to get open when coming to the Bills? Or is the Bills passing game scheme and play calling just bad?

Sorry, I just wrote the same thing without having seen this post. I think it's pretty clear that serviceable receivers seem to become bums when they arrive in this offense. And it maybe, just maybe, it explains why Diggs became increasingly unhappy in Buffalo. 

[MikePJ76]

I don't know I am watching the all 22 at the moment and to my untrained nfl eyes Coleman was open a number of times and didn't get the ball and samuel hit another deep skinny post like the pats game and josh threw it to moore instead, which was fine because moore was wide open...josh just missed him.  On that play samuel was behind both safeties.  its a ball that is thrown in every game when you watch each week.  Allen just didn't want to risk it I guess.

 

on the play action pass that went to hawes for a first down, Coleman was running across the middle of the field wide  open and it would have been a 20+ yard play but josh went to hawes for the quicker shorter throw which resulted in a first down.  

 

I think the team needs help at wr for sure but at the same time Allen is not pushing the ball deep when the plays with deep routes are called.  I wonder if he will force it this week.

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Sorry, I just wrote the same thing without having seen this post. I think it's pretty clear that serviceable receivers seem to become bums when they arrive in this offense. And it maybe, just maybe, it explains why Diggs became increasingly unhappy in Buffalo. 

And it may also explain why the Bills' star receiving tight end also seems to have disappeared. The Bills have actual professional receivers all over the line up and don't have a passing game. My guess is they're all keeping their mouths shut, because they're good team players, but in their heads they're thinking "WTF?"

[Goin Breakdown]

36 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

Yeah thats not true in the least.  They want complimentary football.   But if you think they dont want to pass the ball well its because of your bias towards the coach.   The game manager tag on this board is out of control.   Since when did getting the ball out of your quarterbacks hands and not throwing picks become a bad thing?

Getting the ball put of yourQBs  hands is NOT a bad thing. The bad thing is they don't invest in quality WRs to get the ball to. Their focus has been building a run game. Coleman is a better blocker than pass catcher. Things good for their run game. The 13 personnel works for the run game. All of this is what McD wants. Eating the clock with running and bend but don't break defense. I'd you want me to believe that the coach be it McD or Brady don't want Josh to be a game manager then explain 6.11 yards per ave yesterday. I'm not telling you how to think and my mind won't change until I see different. 

[DCOrange]

24 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Coleman had a chance to break open after clearing #7 but he's wearing Jaycee Horn like a backpack:

 

You're right that Carolina's zone bottled up the routes on the play side. That's where you need your X to just beat his man and get open. And hey Jaycee Horn is a great player, he's going to win some of these reps against any WR, but the fact we had zero chance of ever beating him (or any other decent outside CB) 1v1 really lowers the margin of error for the rest of the passing offense. The play call and the QB have to be perfect on every play. It's too much to ask.

Yeah, I think that's all fair. Like I said, think everyone agrees we pretty desperately need an upgrade, but also think this play was mostly just stymied up no matter what. Tons of other examples that can be used of our WRs just struggling even within good play calls though.

[boyst]

20 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

I'm going to suggest this is at least half the problem. If I look at Moore and Samuel and their last seasons with their previous teams Moore caught 61 for 538 and Samuel 62 for 613. Not great but good. This with Winston/Watson and Sam Howell as their QB's. All significantly inferior to Allen. Did these guys suddenly forget how to get open when coming to the Bills? Or is the Bills passing game scheme and play calling just bad?

Our schemes are quite intricate. i was watching and doing play by play for the guys behind us saying what the bills will do pre snap. i warned them to watch #85. we were using him to lead block, motion pulls to block/crackback, and on many run plays he would deliberately go to the second level or through the top to get blocks in - disguising the setup to run a pass route. he eventually got a pass and more importantly was getting to spaces unnoticed.

 

hawes success is putting Kincaid on the sideline, Knox played a bunch. and there were at least 2 (maybe 3 plays) i noticed where we were 3 deep on tight end. but i noticed Knox and Hawes on the field a lot. Gilliam too.

 

we are scheming for them.

[BananaB]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

When Palmer comes back, we need to throw him the ball more and downfield.  That's what he was brought here to be.

Kincaid and Shakir need to be our other primary targets.

Elijah Moore is decent and I think needs to have the ball thrown to him more.  He needs more targets than Coleman.  

Moore can average 60 receptions a year in Cleveland but not much here?  He is a decent WR.

Cook needs to have more routes thrown to him as well.  

 

I don't see what value Coleman adds.  At this point, neither do I with Samuel.  

 

I think everybody gotta be given a chance to run deep routes. Part of the struggles is predictability. Each guy seems to have a few things they use them for. 

[All_Pro_Bills]

12 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

Getting the ball put of yourQBs  hands is NOT a bad thing. The bad thing is they don't invest in quality WRs to get the ball to. Their focus has been building a run game. Coleman is a better blocker than pass catcher. Things good for their run game. The 13 personnel works for the run game. All of this is what McD wants. Eating the clock with running and bend but don't break defense. I'd you want me to believe that the coach be it McD or Brady don't want Josh to be a game manager then explain 6.11 yards per ave yesterday. I'm not telling you how to think and my mind won't change until I see different. 

Yesterday it worked very well. Next week against arch-nemesis KC it might not won't. And when it doesn't work that's when the offense gets into trouble. Then it all gets thrown on Allen and whether or not he pulls off the Superman role decides if the Bills win or lose. That and whether or not the Bills draw Sean Hoculi's crew. I pray to God we don't those clowns on Sunday.

Edited 1 hour ago by All_Pro_Bills

[thenorthremembers]

13 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

Getting the ball put of yourQBs  hands is NOT a bad thing. The bad thing is they don't invest in quality WRs to get the ball to. Their focus has been building a run game. Coleman is a better blocker than pass catcher. Things good for their run game. The 13 personnel works for the run game. All of this is what McD wants. Eating the clock with running and bend but don't break defense. I'd you want me to believe that the coach be it McD or Brady don't want Josh to be a game manager then explain 6.11 yards per ave yesterday. I'm not telling you how to think and my mind won't change until I see different. 

 

The 6.11 yards per average yesterday is mainly due to missing terribly on a 2nd round wideout.  Coleman shouldn't be on the field at this point.   That said, they didnt draft a WR high just because he could block well.   Sure it played into it, they want well rounded players.   Yes, they want to run the ball well, they didnt pay Cook to have a bad run game.   But to say they purposely want the pass game to be secondary to the run game is a bit obtuse.   I am sure they want both to be excellent, that should be the goal of every coach.    Balance is part of winning football. 

 

The issue with the pass game isnt that they havent put money and draft picks into it, they have.   They just havent brought in the right players.  Kincaid is talented, but is hit or miss and has injury issues.  Coleman hasnt developed into anything beyond a one or two route wide receiver.  Samuel is constantly injured and doesnt process the game fast enough.   The WR position has been grossly mismanaged at a personnel level.     If they can somehow get one good to great WR at the deadline I think you'll see a large change in their ability to throw the ball.  

Edited 1 hour ago by thenorthremembers