Joe B (The Athletic) on passing game problems (with data)

[dave mcbride]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6752393/2025/10/26/bills-panthers-win-wide-receiver-ed-oliver-injury/
 

If you want a microcosm of the Bills’ passing experience enveloped in one play, look no further than their third-and-6 play at the beginning of the second quarter in Panthers territory. Allen, with Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Elijah Moore, Dalton Kincaid and Ty Johnson on the field, took the shotgun snap and hung in the pocket, going through his progressions for 4.35 seconds — well past how long an offensive line generally gives its quarterback to throw. No one was open. Then, wanting to give his receivers another chance to get open, Allen spun out of the pocket and rolled to his left, holding the ball for an additional 6.51 seconds — at one point running through someone grabbing and ripping part of his uniform — before ultimately taking a 16-yard sack. That’s right, almost 11 seconds, and absolutely no one was open down the field, even in a scramble drill scenario.

 

Allen always takes the blame head-on, saying he didn’t trust his feet and that he needs to be better at going through his progressions. He brought up one throw he missed to Moore, which, to be fair, he did, but the reason he’s probably beating himself up over it is because it was the only time all game a wide receiver was uncovered enough more than 15 yards from the line of scrimmage to warrant a target. You read that correctly. That target was the only time, all game, that Allen attempted a pass to a wide receiver that went further than 15 yards.

…

On all 19 of Allen’s passing attempts, his receiver’s average depth of target was 6.11 yards down the field. On his 12 completions, the average depth of the target shrinks to 3.92 yards per completion. That means 71.2 percent of Allen’s passing yards were after the catch. If you think that’s worrisome, let’s isolate the wide receivers. Of Allen’s 12 attempts to the wide receiver group on Sunday, his average depth of target decreased to 4.75 yards. He completed eight of those passes, with an average depth of target of 0.75 yards. In total, Allen gained only six yards with his arm to receivers through the air. The other 104 yards came after the catch. Allen did not complete a single pass to a wide receiver over 8 yards. He only completed a pass of over four air yards one time the entire game.

Now to the anti-magnum opus — let’s remove Shakir from the equation and focus solely on the boundary receivers. Allen completed only two passes for 22 yards to those receivers, all game, with a 40 percent completion rate. Coleman had both receptions.

The Bills aren’t always going to be facing teams with a backup quarterback surrendering the ball all game long. They can’t depend solely on the running game every week. They are going to be down in some games and need to rely on their passing attack to get them out of trouble. There will be teams that, like the Bills saw in Weeks 5 and 6, will dare them to throw by bottling up their ground game. If the Bills don’t have an answer early in games, there really isn’t much confidence they’ll be able to do it late. There have been no signs since the first week of the season that the Bills can be a consistent enough team, outside the numbers, to win through the air. … The Bills desperately need another boundary receiver. They need to be able to challenge defenses past 20 yards through the air. Heck, they need to challenge defenses past 10 yards. If they want to unlock their MVP quarterback and reinstall some of the magic the offense has lost, they must go out and strike for a receiver who can instantly become a starter, and potentially Allen’s top target outside the numbers. And in doing so, it might make their running game even better. It will be costly, and the Bills will want to find the right situation, but the need is as clear as day. It all depends on how much the Bills are willing to spend to get the right receiver.

 

Edited 3 hours ago by dave mcbride

[Royale with Cheese]

When Palmer comes back, we need to throw him the ball more and downfield.  That's what he was brought here to be.

Kincaid and Shakir need to be our other primary targets.

Elijah Moore is decent and I think needs to have the ball thrown to him more.  He needs more targets than Coleman.  

Moore can average 60 receptions a year in Cleveland but not much here?  He is a decent WR.

Cook needs to have more routes thrown to him as well.  

 

I don't see what value Coleman adds.  At this point, neither do I with Samuel.  

 

[Einstein]

I mentioned that exact play during the game.  11 seconds and not a single receiving option can get open.

[Pete]

Obvious we need a WR and intermediate passes to everyone but the Bills office and coordinator.  Keep the data coming, maybe it will open up some closed minds.

12 completions 3.92 yards average depth  🤮 

 

[thenorthremembers]

If a trade for a wideout isnt announced today by 4pm its already too late.    They will not beat the Chiefs with no passing game. 

[Bray Wyatt]

Are we not running routes deep? In the past, even if they werent open it would at least draw defenders down field giving Allen more room to run.

 

It seems now he doesnt even have room to run

[Sweats]

Our FO are the smartest ones in the room, and they say we don't need a quality WR........Beane even challenges anyone who says otherwise

[JP51]

2 minutes ago, Sweats said:

Our FO are the smartest ones in the room, and they say we don't need a quality WR........Beane even challenges anyone who says otherwise

at this point... Beane is a problem...  I hope he adjusts his viewpoints. 

[Pete]

5 minutes ago, Sweats said:

Our FO are the smartest ones in the room, and they say we don't need a quality WR........Beane even challenges anyone who says otherwise

Aggressive stupidity I call it.  When someone yells angrily and is completely wrong

[JohnnyBuffalo]

Maybe all this type of attention will work…heck they finally featured Cook after they got berated coming and going last two weeks and look how that paid off!

 

Go Bills!

[Pete]

7 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

Are we not running routes deep? In the past, even if they werent open it would at least draw defenders down field giving Allen more room to run.

 

It seems now he doesnt even have room to run

We are not running deep or intermediate outs.  That’s why I post so much data and video proving Joe is borderline incompetent Cooridinator.  It’s why 2/3 of TBD voted Brady is the main problem with the Bills passing game.

[Tulsabillsfanz]

15 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6752393/2025/10/26/bills-panthers-win-wide-receiver-ed-oliver-injury/
 

If you want a microcosm of the Bills’ passing experience enveloped in one play, look no further than their third-and-6 play at the beginning of the second quarter in Panthers territory. Allen, with Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Elijah Moore, Dalton Kincaid and Ty Johnson on the field, took the shotgun snap and hung in the pocket, going through his progressions for 4.35 seconds — well past how long an offensive line generally gives its quarterback to throw. No one was open. Then, wanting to give his receivers another chance to get open, Allen spun out of the pocket and rolled to his left, holding the ball for an additional 6.51 seconds — at one point running through someone grabbing and ripping part of his uniform — before ultimately taking a 16-yard sack. That’s right, almost 11 seconds, and absolutely no one was open down the field, even in a scramble drill scenario.

 

Allen always takes the blame head-on, saying he didn’t trust his feet and that he needs to be better at going through his progressions. He brought up one throw he missed to Moore, which, to be fair, he did, but the reason he’s probably beating himself up over it is because it was the only time all game a wide receiver was uncovered enough more than 15 yards from the line of scrimmage to warrant a target. You read that correctly. That target was the only time, all game, that Allen attempted a pass to a wide receiver that went further than 15 yards.

…

On all 19 of Allen’s passing attempts, his receiver’s average depth of target was 6.11 yards down the field. On his 12 completions, the average depth of the target shrinks to 3.92 yards per completion. That means 71.2 percent of Allen’s passing yards were after the catch. If you think that’s worrisome, let’s isolate the wide receivers. Of Allen’s 12 attempts to the wide receiver group on Sunday, his average depth of target decreased to 4.75 yards. He completed eight of those passes, with an average depth of target of 0.75 yards. In total, Allen gained only six yards with his arm to receivers through the air. The other 104 yards came after the catch. Allen did not complete a single pass to a wide receiver over 8 yards. He only completed a pass of over four air yards one time the entire game.

Now to the anti-magnum opus — let’s remove Shakir from the equation and focus solely on the boundary receivers. Allen completed only two passes for 22 yards to those receivers, all game, with a 40 percent completion rate. Coleman had both receptions.

The Bills aren’t always going to be facing teams with a backup quarterback surrendering the ball all game long. They can’t depend solely on the running game every week. They are going to be down in some games and need to rely on their passing attack to get them out of trouble. There will be teams that, like the Bills saw in Weeks 5 and 6, will dare them to throw by bottling up their ground game. If the Bills don’t have an answer early in games, there really isn’t much confidence they’ll be able to do it late. There have been no signs since the first week of the season that the Bills can be a consistent enough team, outside the numbers, to win through the air. … The Bills desperately need another boundary receiver. They need to be able to challenge defenses past 20 yards through the air. Heck, they need to challenge defenses past 10 yards. If they want to unlock their MVP quarterback and reinstall some of the magic the offense has lost, they must go out and strike for a receiver who can instantly become a starter, and potentially Allen’s top target outside the numbers. And in doing so, it might make their running game even better. It will be costly, and the Bills will want to find the right situation, but the need is as clear as day. It all depends on how much the Bills are willing to spend to get the right receiver.

 

This can’t be correct. It doesn’t fit the narrative that there’s something wrong with Josh!

 

What’s wrong with Josh is an overall inferior receiving corps and an offensive game plan that has been completely unable to overcome our receivers deficiencies!  

[Pete]

1 minute ago, JohnnyBuffalo said:

Maybe all this type of attention will work…heck they finally featured Cook after they got berated coming and going last two weeks and look how that paid off!

 

Go Bills!

That’s my hope.  Grassroots Mafia movement.  We need WRs and we need intermediate and deep passes.  If if Beane can’t provide a quality WR asap, and/or if Brady can’t start designing passes longer than 4 yards- get a new GM and Coordinator asap IMO 

[SCBills]

Even more frustrating than the complete non existence of a passing game if the fact that Josh is getting hit, much more. 
 

My biggest fear if we don’t trade for a WR and/or Brady doesn’t get his act together isn’t that the Offense can’t pass the ball… it’s that Josh gets hurt. 
 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by SCBills

[DCOrange]

I think probably literally every Bills fan understands we need an upgrade for our current boundary receivers (especially with Palmer out where it's now basically just Coleman). Not really sure the play Joe is specifically talking about is really the issue though; that one felt more like (1) the wrong play for the coverage we ultimately got and (2) simply a good job on defense. Felt like we just didn't get the defense we were expecting. If you want to say the issue is more that nobody was able to get open during the scramble drill, then yeah, that's not good either, but I don't think an upgrade at WR is getting open within the structure of that play either. It was just dead the moment the ball was snapped.

[Pete]

Just now, SCBills said:

Even more frustrating than the complete non existence of a passing game if the fact that Josh is getting hit, much more. 
 

My biggest fear if we don’t trade for a WR isn’t that the Offense can’t pass the ball… it’s that Josh gets hurt. 

The fact that Josh has taken a beating, and Brady can’t make adjustments, I hold that against Brady.  It really pisses me off that Josh takes a beating and we have no answers 😡 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

18 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

When Palmer comes back, we need to throw him the ball more and downfield.  That's what he was brought here to be.

Kincaid and Shakir need to be our other primary targets.

Elijah Moore is decent and I think needs to have the ball thrown to him more.  He needs more targets than Coleman.  

Moore can average 60 receptions a year in Cleveland but not much here?  He is a decent WR.

Cook needs to have more routes thrown to him as well.  

 

I don't see what value Coleman adds.  At this point, neither do I with Samuel.  

 

Cook needs to have more routes thrown to him as well.

I'd love to add another piece as well, but Palmer needs to be featured, and Keon needs to sit. 

Moore is a decent route runner. Samuel has juice. 

This offense is just clunky right now. Something needs to change (passing game wise), and fast. 

[Goin Breakdown]

19 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

If a trade for a wideout isnt announced today by 4pm its already too late.    They will not beat the Chiefs with no passing game. 

They don't want a passing game. They want a running game. This version of Josh is what they want. Game manager. No INTs, don't fumble so basically get the ball away from

josh as fast as possible. The MVP "unicorn" has been removed from the game. But hey we can run well now. Awesome. That'll win a couple games. 

[Mr. WEO]

8 minutes ago, Pete said:

That’s my hope.  Grassroots Mafia movement.  We need WRs and we need intermediate and deep passes.  If if Beane can’t provide a quality WR asap, and/or if Brady can’t start designing passes longer than 4 yards- get a new GM and Coordinator asap IMO 

Beane has provided 1 top quality receiver since he’s been here.  Every offseason it’s an issue. He brings in some JAGs who are soon gone.

 

what makes anyone believe he’s suddenly going to change?  He can’t even handle being reminded by the press about his WR blind spot.  
 

hes a baby

[WotAGuy]

Everybody wanted YAC a couple years ago. Now, that’s all they have available.