The Refs and this “rigged” league

[Big Blitz]

5 minutes ago, Walking Tall said:

My question is this……

 

If you believe it is a rigged league, why would you waste your time and money to watch it?

 

I think it’s the games they “need.”

[KOKBILLS]

4 hours ago, Bruffalo said:

Allen is 1-5 when Hochuli is officiating. 

 

The Patriots are 6-0 in that same time frame. 

 

A 16% winrate when a certain referee is running your game seems suspect. Especially when you have a league wide win rate of just about 70%. 

 

Not a single holding call on the Patriots all night. Just throwing that out there.

 

Definitely not the only reason we lost, but a contributing factor when you look at all the ticky tack penalties that easily could have gone uncalled. 

 

 

 

 

 

Woah...

The statistical probability of that is .988%...

Edited 2 hours ago by KOKBILLS

[Low Positive]

5 minutes ago, Just Jack said:

 

The year the Chargers went 1-15, six of those games were decided by 7 points or less. 

 

 

 

 

Now do one for all other teams/games he's officiated to see which teams he favors. 

A quick search found that the Eagles are 7-1 in games reffed by Hochuli.  Also, his first ever game as a ref and crew chief was the slaughter in Baltimore week 1 in Josh's rookie year. 

[starrymessenger]

How does Hoculi do officiating other teams? Do him and his mates just call more penalties than other crews? In how many ways does his management of the games differ from that of other crews? 

Don’t like him regardless. Really hated his father too. 

[Bruffalo]

12 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

How does Hoculi do officiating other teams? Do him and his mates just call more penalties than other crews? In how many ways does his management of the games differ from that of other crews? 

Don’t like him regardless. Really hated his father too. 

 

There's an outlier year in 2023 but since 2018 he's regularly been in the top 3 crews for penalties called. 

 

I haven't looked how those penalties are distributed by team but it'd probably be interesting. 

 

EDIT: Okay so I looked at the distribution of penalties year by year and any time the Bills have had the misfortune of getting Hochuli they've been a top team in penalties called and yards lost. Interestingly the Patriots are high in the penalties called category but considering their 6-3 record I'd imagine they're less impactful moments of games. 

Edited 2 hours ago by Bruffalo

[LabattBlue]

44 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Since 2018, Hochuli calls more penalties per game 10.3 than the league average against the Bills which is 6.4

That's not a coincidence....

Run on tinfoil, aisle 2.  All hands on deck for immediate restock.  

[first_and_ten]

4 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

You will not convince me otherwise after that joke last night. 
 

The network (thus the league) had its narrative ready and did everything they could to make the team that lost at home to Vegas and Pittsburgh relevant again.  
 

Robert Kraft was in attendance.  Is that normal for him on road games?
 

You will not see a playoff game with 11 TOTAL penalties let alone 11 on one team.  Yea they threw some on NE in the 2nd half but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t “fix it” later.

 

 

THEY THREW A FLAG ON THE FINAL KICK RETURN.  That was just in case we returned it for a TD.  

 

Holding calls that were beyond questionable and will NEVER be called in January.  
 

Our WRs NEVER are interfered with.  Amazing considering how much man we see.  
 

NE never held on ANY passes - did I miss one?   
 

 

This isn’t a “blame the refs” for the loss either.  You can take it that way but we had a chance to win.  Then Shakir got mugged and the network did a great job showing why that wasn’t a DPI.  Total joke.  
 

Not a blame the refs.  You just won’t convince me otherwise that when this league needs something done for a team it will get done.  
 

 

 

The drive in the 1st quarter, when they pitched it to Cooke, who had a nice gain, we were close to the red zone. Whoops, a hold on  McGovern. They showed the replay and that idiot Collingsworth says, you put a hand on him, they call it every time. What??? Every play a hand is placed on a defensive player!! The replay clearly showed it was NOT a hold. They didn't have the courage to call it out. It seems this crew is there to defend all the calls. Awful!!

Edited 2 hours ago by first_and_ten

[Lionel Hutz]

1 hour ago, paulmm3 said:

Little statistical analysis here. Since Shawn Hochuli came into the league the Bills are 1-5 in regular season plus posteason games officiated by Hochuli. The Bills are 88-44 over this time span in all regular season plus postseason games (so 87-39 if you exclude Hochuli games).

 

We can set up a 2x2 contingency table

	W	L	Total
With Hochuli	1	5	6
Without Hochuli	87	39	126
Total	88	44	132

 

The null hypothesis for this analysis is that there is no difference between Shawn Hochuli and other crews - that is all crews call Bills games the same and Bills are equally likely to win no matter who the referee is. Running Fisher's exact test on this data gives a p value of 0.0157. This means there is a 1.57% chance that the Bills could randomly be 1-5 with Hochuli and 87-39 with all other officials. Meaning there's a 98.4% chance Shawn Hochuli is biased against the Bills to a statistically significant degree. Meaning Shawn Hochuli is biased against the Bills.

Since you already did the research do you have a list of those 6 Bills games and their opponents?

 

It would be interesting to see how he has officiated in games not involving the Bills. Also would be interesting see how underdogs generally favor in games he officiates. 

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

I remember the exact play. 
Receiver was about 15 yds away from Maye, Maye tosses ball at the turf 5 yds away. 

And the ball landed well behind the LOS and Maye was between the tackles.

 

I know some have said that the penalties in the 2nd half evened things out but I call BS on that.  Most of the penalties against the Bills were judgement calls while the 3 big penalty's against the Pats were safety related infractions visible to everyone in the stadium and on TV.

 

*  The nasty head shot Allen took in the pocket.

 

*  The obvious time the NE WR grabbed the Bills DB's face mask.

 

*  The criminal assault on Cook as he was on the ground.  BTW, why wasn't that guy ejected?

 

 

 

 

[Boo Radley Boston]

Kraft goes to every game regardless of where it is.

 

Doesn't Pegula hit the road games too? NFL owners typically make accommodations for other NFL owners throughout the league.

 

Buffalo had 11 penalties and NE had 8 penalties They were flag happy all game. The personal foul 15 yarder on the Bills LB for bumping heads with Maye was not deliberate. To me its incidental contact.

[Big Blitz]

17 minutes ago, first_and_ten said:

 

The drive in the 1st quarter, when they pitched it to Cooke, who had a nice gain, we were close to the red zone. Whoops, a hold on  McGovern. They showed the replay and that idiot Collingsworth says, you put a hand on him, they call it every time. What??? Every play a hand is placed on a defensive player!! The replay clearly showed it was NOT a hold. They didn't have the courage to call it out. It seems this crew is there to defend all the calls. Awful!!

 

When CC said in the first half something along the lines of “man, even if the Patriots put on a strong showing and keep this close that absolutely would show they are back..”

 

Something like that.  When I heard it I said we’re “f…ed.”   

 

 

Everyone got the assignment.   

[Low Positive]

20 minutes ago, Lionel Hutz said:

Since you already did the research do you have a list of those 6 Bills games and their opponents?

 

It would be interesting to see how he has officiated in games not involving the Bills. Also would be interesting see how underdogs generally favor in games he officiates. 

2018:

@  BAL

@ MIA

 

2022:

Vs. NE (Only win)

 

2023:

@ PHI

vs. KC (Div. Game)

 

2025

Last night.

 

He also called the Giants upset against the Chargers last week. You know, the one where everyone got to rave about Jaxson Dart?

 

Here's the data I have: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/officials/HochSh0r.htm.

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Low Positive

[Bad Things]

While we're on the topic of annoying Refs, I can't stand how all the refs seemed to be jacked up and wearing skin-tight shirts.

WTF?

 

While some of you may enjoy the *****-erotic aspect of it, I think they all look like a bunch of douches.

Just wear a normal fitting uniform FFS.

[Just Jack]

43 minutes ago, Boo Radley Boston said:

Kraft goes to every game regardless of where it is.

 

Doesn't Pegula hit the road games too? NFL owners typically make accommodations for other NFL owners throughout the league.

 

The Bills used to give the suite behind my seats to the visiting team. Back when Tebow was QB for the Bronco's I got this photo of Elway...

 

 

And one time when the Bills played the Browns, Jim Brown was in there.

 

 

 

[Fleezoid]

This kind of reminds me of the Truman Show when little clues started emerging and the facade started unraveling. In a couple of years, we're all going to be looking at the commissioner and collectively asking him, "Was any of it real?"

[Boo Radley Boston]

54 minutes ago, Just Jack said:

 

The Bills used to give the suite behind my seats to the visiting team. Back when Tebow was QB for the Bronco's I got this photo of Elway...

 

 

And one time when the Bills played the Browns, Jim Brown was in there.

 

 

 

Nice

 

I met Jim Kelly 2005, Jon Gruden and Moose Johnson 2012. All great people. Kelly was built like a LB.

[TheWei44]

2 hours ago, Lionel Hutz said:

Since you already did the research do you have a list of those 6 Bills games and their opponents?

 

It would be interesting to see how he has officiated in games not involving the Bills. Also would be interesting see how underdogs generally favor in games he officiates. 

Totally agree - I'd be very curious to see how other key rivals of ours (eg Chiefs, Ravens) look in similar tables.  To get at whether it's a Hochuli issue or a Hochuli-Bills issue.  Thanks!!

[Aussie Joe]

53 minutes ago, Fleezoid said:

In a couple of years, we're all going to be looking at the commissioner and collectively asking him, "Was any of it real?"

 no … we live in a simulation…

[Augie]

7 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

You will not convince me otherwise after that joke last night. 
 

The network (thus the league) had its narrative ready and did everything they could to make the team that lost at home to Vegas and Pittsburgh relevant again.  
 

Robert Kraft was in attendance.  Is that normal for him on road games?
 

You will not see a playoff game with 11 TOTAL penalties let alone 11 on one team.  Yea they threw some on NE in the 2nd half but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t “fix it” later.

 

 

THEY THREW A FLAG ON THE FINAL KICK RETURN.  That was just in case we returned it for a TD.  

 

Holding calls that were beyond questionable and will NEVER be called in January.  
 

Our WRs NEVER are interfered with.  Amazing considering how much man we see.  
 

NE never held on ANY passes - did I miss one?   
 

 

This isn’t a “blame the refs” for the loss either.  You can take it that way but we had a chance to win.  Then Shakir got mugged and the network did a great job showing why that wasn’t a DPI.  Total joke.  
 

Not a blame the refs.  You just won’t convince me otherwise that when this league needs something done for a team it will get done.  
 

 

 

That had to feel good, and therapists charge by the hour. We are a great deal! 

4 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 no … we live in a simulation…

 

I believe they were “experimenting” with a live simulation. Like the famous jet lag “experiment”. Yep! It’s real, Roger! Let’s test gravity next. If I drop a bowling ball, do you think it will affect your foot below? 

[3rdand12]

6 hours ago, Bruffalo said:

Just to further my point:

 

In the games Hochuli has been the referee for the Bills, he's called:

 

-11 penalties in 2025 in 1 game.

-11 penalties in 2023 in 1 game. (Philly Game) 

-5 in the divisional round of the playoffs in 2023

-6 penalties in 2022. This is the only game we won. 

-10 in 2018 opener.

-13 in 2018 against Miami. 

 

The Bills average penalties per game between 2018-2025 is about 5.5-6.5. So we're seeing something way off the norm. It's anomalous for sure.  

 

Appreciate these details honestly. I really never paid much attention to which Refs oversee gamedays week to week etc.

 Now I am a little pissed.

 

I did not watch the Game btw   

 But yea Bills needed to overcome the setbacks an win these games to be SB ready. Hope they learn

 Bills have to overcome new obstacles each week  , but let the Players play. Fairly and evenly judged.

fg Ed .....

 

and Coleman ...😶