Well, another worthless stat..total QBR

[MJS]

12 minutes ago, finn said:

Good point. It's just a metric, useful as long as clear what it's measuring. Same with QBR and EPA. (As I recall, Lamar is higher than Allen in QBR, too, but lower in EPA.)

Now, QBR I think IS flawed. I never use it. It only works for quarterbacks who don't rush very much. And ESPN doesn't even tell us exactly how they calculate it. It apparently uses EPA, but the exact methodology it proprietary.

2 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Josh's QB sneaks & Cook's runs on the goal line basically vulture his QB rating.  If Bills had scored on the Hawes catch instead of it being at the 1 yard line, Josh's QBR would have been 119+, similarly if Cook had scored instead of being tackled at the 2 after his 51 yard run, passer rating would have been 126+ with 4 TD's. 

Yes, good points. That would habe increased his TD percentage. QBR is different from passer rating, though, just FYI. QBR is on a 100 point scale while passer rating goes up to 158.3.

4 minutes ago, bearstobills said:

This one is even more fun....

Dataroma

@ffdataroma

Keon Coleman separation metrics in Week 1, per

@FantasyPtsData

(min 10 routes): Separation Score: -0.049 (88th of 105 WRs) Route Win Rate: 0.0% (tied for last)

Pretty impressive that he didn't win a single route but was still open on a number of plays and had over 100 yards and a score. How do they even determine this? Just insane.

[fergie's ire]

**sigh** How many times are we going to have to go over this?  It's a really simple and straight forward calculation:

 

The NFL passer rating equation involves calculating four separate values (a, b, c, and d) based on completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions relative to attempts, and then applying the formula ((a + b + c + d) / 6) * 100, where each intermediate value is capped between 0 and 2.375.  

Step-by-step Calculation:

Adjust values:

If any of the calculated values (a, b, c, or d) is greater than 2.375, set it to 2.375. 

If any of the values is negative, set it to 0. 

Apply the final formula:

Passer Rating = ((a + b + c + d) / 6) × 100 

Calculate intermediate values:

d = 2.375 - (Interceptions / Attempts) × 25 

a = ((Completions / Attempts) - 0.3) × 5 

b = ((Passing Yards / Attempts) - 3) × 0.25 

c = (Touchdown Passes / Attempts) × 20 

Apply the final formula:

Passer Rating = ((a + b + c + d) / 6) × 100 

Adjust values:

If any of the calculated values (a, b, c, or d) is greater than 2.375, set it to 2.375. 

If any of the values is negative, set it to 0. 

 

(Thanks Google AI)

Edited September 10 by fergie's ire

[GASabresIUFan]

It’s biased against Josh and the Bills.

[SoCal Deek]

I remember when Fitz had a perfect rating against the Seahawks one time, and I’m not even sure if we won….but I think so. 

[finn]

12 minutes ago, MJS said:

Now, QBR I think IS flawed. I never use it. It only works for quarterbacks who don't rush very much. And ESPN doesn't even tell us exactly how they calculate it. It apparently uses EPA, but the exact methodology it proprietary.

Yes, good points. That would habe increased his TD percentage. QBR is different from passer rating, though, just FYI. QBR is on a 100 point scale while passer rating goes up to 158.3.

Pretty impressive that he didn't win a single route but was still open on a number of plays and had over 100 yards and a score. How do they even determine this? Just insane.

I wonder if the Beane and Brady (I don't credit McDermott) are on the cutting edge of offensive innovation in this respect. You pass on an extremely fast but small receiver who can presumably get loads of separation for a big, strong guy who can't separate to save his life but can leap through the ceiling and box out like an NBA center. For example, how do you defend that high pass to Coleman in the fourth quarter? Yet he's not just a tight end: he's athletic and has moves, like that stop-go step that broke Jaire Alexander's ankles. 

 

Separation isn't everything. 

[transient]

5 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

These ratings have flaws

You know those rating systems are flawed! They don't take in account houses that have, uh, more than two television sets. And for the record, Dorothy Mantooth is a saint!

[MJS]

13 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I remember when Fitz had a perfect rating against the Seahawks one time, and I’m not even sure if we won….but I think so. 

Josh Allen also had a perfect passer rating game in 2023. It was against (I'm sure you guessed it) the Dolphins.

 

I remember way back when Geno Smith was playing for the Jets that he had a game with a perfect 158.3 rating and another game that year with a perfect 0.0 rating. Such variance is impressive, to say the least.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

6 hours ago, julian said:

I just like to let my eyes tell me everything I need to know about a performance on the field.

 

 I’m still treating my NFL viewing experience like it’s 1987, before we needed nerds with calculators to tell us who is better than who.

Nothing wrong with that, but analytics are certainly useful. Not nearly as useful in football as they are in baseball. Still a good tool for coaches. 

[fergie's ire]

34 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

That hit by Oliver must’ve scrambled Lamar’s brains because I see no other reason why they wouldn’t go for it. Giving Josh Allen 1:33 to get 40 yards is insanity. I am naturally a very neurotic person, but when I say I felt absolutely tranquil, it is not an understatement. I just knew in the back of my mind that it was going to be easy. So easy in fact that the Bills had a good 30 seconds to run the clock out and get everything set up at a steady pace. 

Are you young...or have you found some miracle cure for LSBFS?  I must say, I still carry the infection.  I was expecting something like a perfectly executed drive to set up a winning field goal...followed by a doink.  Or a block...which almost happened.

[BearNorth]

1 hour ago, finn said:

a big, strong guy who can't separate to save his life but can leap through the ceiling and box out like an NBA center.  

 

Separation isn't everything. 

Exactly - the TD that was a deflection, Coleman's reaction was exactly what a top basketball player would do, coaches I worked with called it being quick to the ball [on defense and rebounding].

[pennstate10]

9 hours ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

Just came across this on ESPN site. According to that metric, Allen had the 11th best statistical QB performance for the weekend...which shows some flaws in the system. For those of you keeping track, Jackson finished #1.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

Agree completely.  It’s a proprietary calculation based on play results vs EPA, then modified by quality of defense and time of game. 
 

A good illustration of how useless this metric is comes from Penn States QB, Drew Allar. 
 

In week 1, he was 22-26, 200+ yds, 1 TD, 0 Int, 0 fumbles, 20+ yds rushing. All drives led to points, his team didn’t punt once.  And his team won. 
 

His QBR was 38.3, below average, and placing him 95th of 125 QB in D1. 

[henry jones]

The national "pundits", especially Stephen A. strictly use this stat when determining who should be the MVP.  Don't get me wrong, Lamar is an otherworldly QB, but the team around him is just as responsible for his stats.  And they are already touting Lamar as the MVP this year mostly because of this stupid stat.  Drives me crazy.  

[Albany,n.y.]

I've hated QB ratings of any kind ever since Rob Johnson had a higher QB rating as a Buffalo Bill than Jim Kelly had as a Buffalo Bill. 

[Tulsabillsfanz]

It penalizes Josh getting us first downs on short yardage runs, by lowering his yards per carry.

 

 Also, Josh’s 3 kneeling plays at the end were included. He shows 3 carries for-5 yards for those kneel downs.  

Edited September 10 by Tulsabillsfanz

[Albany,n.y.]

1 hour ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

That hit by Oliver must’ve scrambled Lamar’s brains because I see no other reason why they wouldn’t go for it. Giving Josh Allen 1:33 to get 40 yards is insanity. I am naturally a very neurotic person, but when I say I felt absolutely tranquil, it is not an understatement. I just knew in the back of my mind that it was going to be easy. So easy in fact that the Bills had a good 30 seconds to run the clock out and get everything set up at a steady pace. 

Going for it on 4th & 3 from your own 38 up by 2 would be insanity.  Noi coach in his right mind would risk not getting 3 yards & basically already giving his opponent field goal range from their own 40 rather than making Josh start at the Bills own 20 with 1:33 left.  It was 4th & 3, not 4th & inches. 

[BrooklynBills]

10 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

It's mostly an efficiency metric and seems to heavily weigh yards per attempt, so it makes sense that Lamar was rated higher. It doesn't measure clutchness or the quality of your throws and is no substitute for the eye test.

 

if i recall, its also supposed to weight the 4th Q heavier than the 1st 3 (which is another flaw because it can overinflate garbage time).

 

QBR was created at a time when ESPN was trying figure out a way to incorporate Vick's rushing/scrambling ability into the QB metrics - which I do think at the time was needed because the mobile QB was evolving. I just think that it is too simplistic now that we've reached this era of QB play

[GaryPinC]

13 hours ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

Just came across this on ESPN site. According to that metric, Allen had the 11th best statistical QB performance for the weekend...which shows some flaws in the system. For those of you keeping track, Jackson finished #1.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

The best part about this is Lamar bore witness to who was actually the better QB that game.

 

I like Lamar and highly respect him and his game.  But I think he feels he should have won MVP last year because of his stats and feels he was the better QB, and that's ok.

 

But the look of exhaustion and disbelief on his face in the waning moments Sunday night and when he met up with Josh after was priceless.   I don't think he'll be quite as smug towards Josh moving forward.  Enjoy your stats Lamar, we'll enjoy the victory! 

[TheBrownBear]

3 minutes ago, BrooklynBills said:

 

if i recall, its also supposed to weight the 4th Q heavier than the 1st 3 (which is another flaw because it can overinflate garbage time).

 

QBR was created at a time when ESPN was trying figure out a way to incorporate Vick's rushing/scrambling ability into the QB metrics - which I do think at the time was needed because the mobile QB was evolving. I just think that it is too simplistic now that we've reached this era of QB play

Argh...my ADD got me there.  Thought we were discussing actual quarterback rating, not QBR.  As for the total QBR, looks like Josh probably got dinged for his rushing ypc and just the pure amount of "plays" the he was credited with? 

[Albany,n.y.]

28 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

The best part about this is Lamar bore witness to who was actually the better QB that game.

 

I like Lamar and highly respect him and his game.  But I think he feels he should have won MVP last year because of his stats and feels he was the better QB, and that's ok.

 

But the look of exhaustion and disbelief on his face in the waning moments Sunday night and when he met up with Josh after was priceless.   I don't think he'll be quite as smug towards Josh moving forward.  Enjoy your stats Lamar, we'll enjoy the victory! 

I don't think it's Lamar who has been smug towards Josh.  It's his fanboys in the media who have been the ones who overrated Lamar over Josh.  

[mannc]

It’s simple: Any QB rating system that does not rank Josh Allen first is not worth the paper it’s printed on…