Playoff record, rule changes and the Bills

[RoscoeParrish]

I saw a few post on some of points below and I wanted to put some things together.

 

#1 Josh Allen is the only QB with 6+ playoff wins and no SB appearance

 

#2 Josh Allen is 7-6 in the playoffs. McD is 7-7.

 

both of these stats are kind of interesting to me. Mostly in the context of the rule change in 2020, expanding the playoff field to 7 and eliminating the bye week for the #2 seed. 

 

Under the pre-2020 rules, the Bills would have a bye week in 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024.

 

thats 4 extra playoff games (all wins) against teams that would not have qualified for playoffs prior to 2020.

 

So under the old pre-2020 rules:

 

Josh Allen would be 3-6 in the postseason.

 

Sean McDermott would be 3-7.

 

Here’s another stat.

 

Since the rule changes, only ONE two seed has made the Super Bowl. And that was this season in the Eagles.

 

from 2010-2019, a two seed made the Super Bowl 5 times, good for 50%.

 

So, major points.

 

Has the 2020 rule change helped the PERCEPTION of the Bills playoff success with an inflated win total, but in reality, actually damaged their actual chance of playoff success by eliminating such an advantage?

[Buffalo Junction]

Does stopping at 2010 vs say 2000 change the percentages?

[Lionel Hutz]

I don't know why this is so hard for so many Bills fans to understand. McD just beats mediocre teams in the playoffs. Really the only impressive win was last year against the Ravens and that was a home game with terrible weather conditions and we just squeaked by with a few major blunders by the Ravens. 

[RoscoeParrish]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

Does stopping at 2010 vs say 2000 change the percentages?

Going back to 2000 is hard because the playoff format/divisions were different before the NFL expanded in 2002.

 

What I can say is that from 2003-2019, the two seed made the SB 7 times.

 

So closer to 41%. 

[Augie]

I’ll deal with what actually did happen. 

[17islongenough]

Fun fact once the NFL goes to an 8 team playoff the Bills will get the 1 seed every year.  

[Dafan]

52 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

I saw a few post on some of points below and I wanted to put some things together.

 

#1 Josh Allen is the only QB with 6+ playoff wins and no SB appearance

 

#2 Josh Allen is 7-6 in the playoffs. McD is 7-7.

 

both of these stats are kind of interesting to me. Mostly in the context of the rule change in 2020, expanding the playoff field to 7 and eliminating the bye week for the #2 seed. 

 

Under the pre-2020 rules, the Bills would have a bye week in 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024.

 

thats 4 extra playoff games (all wins) against teams that would not have qualified for playoffs prior to 2020.

 

So under the old pre-2020 rules:

 

Josh Allen would be 3-6 in the postseason.

 

Sean McDermott would be 3-7.

 

Here’s another stat.

 

Since the rule changes, only ONE two seed has made the Super Bowl. And that was this season in the Eagles.

 

from 2010-2019, a two seed made the Super Bowl 5 times, good for 50%.

 

So, major points.

 

Has the 2020 rule change helped the PERCEPTION of the Bills playoff success with an inflated win total, but in reality, actually damaged their actual chance of playoff success by eliminating such an advantage?

You can't say that whatsoever.  You're saying that in 4 of those years, the Bills would have had a bye.  Which means they could have rested more and played better.  You can't just eliminate their wins and expect the same results in the rest of the play offs.  

Edited August 28 by Dafan

[RoscoeParrish]

8 minutes ago, Augie said:

I’ll deal with what actually did happen. 

I hear you, but what “actually did happen” is that the playoff seeding rules changed, giving the Bills opponents in round 1 that would not have made the playoffs in previous years, instead of a bye for the Bills to rest their players.

 

That’s what did happen.

5 minutes ago, Dafan said:

You can't saw that whatsoever.  You're saying that in 4 of those years, the Bills would have had a bye.  Which means they could have rested more and played better.  You can't just climate their wins and expect the same results in the rest of the play offs.  

That’s part of my point.

 

we may have had a worse win total in the playoffs, but with the advantage of a bye, maybe we change the results of at least one of those other games.

 

 

[Buffalo Ballin]

20 minutes ago, Lionel Hutz said:

I don't know why this is so hard for so many Bills fans to understand. McD just beats mediocre teams in the playoffs. Really the only impressive win was last year against the Ravens and that was a home game with terrible weather conditions and we just squeaked by with a few major blunders by the Ravens. 

Bingo!

 

When situations get tougher, McD crumples like paper. Dead @ss. This team starts and ends with Josh Allen. Sprinkled with good O-line. Maybe some cameos from RB James Cook this season.

[BillytheKid]

18 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

Going back to 2000 is hard because the playoff format/divisions were different before the NFL expanded in 2002.

 

What I can say is that from 2003-2019, the two seed made the SB 7 times.

 

So closer to 41%. 

You are comparing 16 years to 5 years. So it’s not apples to apples yet until you get the remaining 11 years. 

[Bills!Win!]

Not to get off topic, but I never realized until you mentioned the Eagles being the first team to win as the 2nd seed in the new format, that It’s Crazy that they hosted 3 straight playoff games 

Edited August 28 by Bills!Win!

[djp14150]

1 hour ago, RoscoeParrish said:

I saw a few post on some of points below and I wanted to put some things together.

 

#1 Josh Allen is the only QB with 6+ playoff wins and no SB appearance

 

#2 Josh Allen is 7-6 in the playoffs. McD is 7-7.

 

both of these stats are kind of interesting to me. Mostly in the context of the rule change in 2020, expanding the playoff field to 7 and eliminating the bye week for the #2 seed. 

 

Under the pre-2020 rules, the Bills would have a bye week in 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024.

 

thats 4 extra playoff games (all wins) against teams that would not have qualified for playoffs prior to 2020.

 

So under the old pre-2020 rules:

 

Josh Allen would be 3-6 in the postseason.

 

Sean McDermott would be 3-7.

 

Here’s another stat.

 

Since the rule changes, only ONE two seed has made the Super Bowl. And that was this season in the Eagles.

 

from 2010-2019, a two seed made the Super Bowl 5 times, good for 50%.

 

So, major points.

 

Has the 2020 rule change helped the PERCEPTION of the Bills playoff success with an inflated win total, but in reality, actually damaged their actual chance of playoff success by eliminating such an advantage?

If they had the bye, who knows how rested and healthier they would have been.

[Richard Noggin]

When I go down this path of lamenting all of the unfortunate, and often concentrated among a couple position groups, injuries the Bills have had to manage into the divisional and championship rounds of the playoffs in recent years, I mostly just angrier about 13 Seconds and the opportunity squandered that year. We had young Josh Allen HISTORICALLY ON FIRE in an era when offenses still had that pandemic upper-hand of referees mostly ignoring offensive holding. To see Allen and Co (Davis) win that game in legendary fashion, and then to watch McD and his coaches actively string together an improbable chain of historic blunders, resulting in an overtime loss.......really redefined the term "Billsy" for the world to see, and has always been unconscionable for me (and many others). 

 

Despite my immense appreciation for Sean McDermott's culture of process and success, I have for two offseasons wished for McD to get fired and replaced by Ben Johnson. That dream died this year. So as always, I will be rooting for McD and his team, in Orchard Park for half the games, screaming when we're on defense and shutting the eff up when we're on offense. Go Bills

 

May this be the blessed year it all comes together.  

[eball]

Great, another thinly veiled thread to trash McDermott. 
 

3 hours ago, Buffalo Ballin said:

Bingo!

 

When situations get tougher, McD crumples like paper. Dead @ss. This team starts and ends with Josh Allen. Sprinkled with good O-line. Maybe some cameos from RB James Cook this season.

Such an ignorant take, but unfortunately all too common among the “Super Bowl or failure” crowd. There’s really only one playoff game under McD in which the Bills came out flat (Cinci), and against KC they simply haven’t gotten the same breaks as their opponent. 
 

[RoscoeParrish]

8 hours ago, eball said:

Great, another thinly veiled thread to trash McDermott. 
 

Such an ignorant take, but unfortunately all too common among the “Super Bowl or failure” crowd. There’s really only one playoff game under McD in which the Bills came out flat (Cinci), and against KC they simply haven’t gotten the same breaks as their opponent. 
 

I really like McD.

 

this thread was not intended to trash him or the Bills really.

 

moreso it was to contextualize the Bills playoff success/failure in regards to rule changes. 
 

Ultimately, I think there’s an argument that under the old rules we may have less overall playoff wins, but with the bye, have gone further or even won a Super Bowl by now.

 

There’s a certain irony that the rules allowing an expanded playoff field and loss of bye is a disadvantage that only came after the Bills probably could’ve benefitted greatly from during the drought. But that’s a different topic.

[Buffalo Boy]

8 hours ago, eball said:

Great, another thinly veiled thread to trash McDermott. 
 

Such an ignorant take, but unfortunately all too common among the “Super Bowl or failure” crowd. There’s really only one playoff game under McD in which the Bills came out flat (Cinci), and against KC they simply haven’t gotten the same breaks as their opponent. 
 

I go to a restaurant because I want to eat a meal

I go to a bar for a drink and entertainment 

If I went to a whorehouse, I’d expect to get some 

I watch my football team because I want to see them win it all.

Is it possible to watch and enjoy regular season games and still be disappointed at losing in playoffs? Yes

Is it ignorant to call such people ignorant? No. It is stupid and small minded😘

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

8 hours ago, eball said:

Great, another thinly veiled thread to trash McDermott. 
 

Such an ignorant take, but unfortunately all too common among the “Super Bowl or failure” crowd. There’s really only one playoff game under McD in which the Bills came out flat (Cinci), and against KC they simply haven’t gotten the same breaks as their opponent. 
 

 

The team was pretty flat in the first KC loss, outscored 38-6 from the start of the 2nd Q until garbage time. 

 

I have to disagree with the idea that we haven't gotten lucky breaks in these games. 

 

1st KC loss they muffed a punt that we recovered at the 3 yard line and scored a TD on the next play.

 

Bengals loss had a couple plays where Josh was somewhere between an incomplete forward pass and losing a fumble. Refs called both an incomplete pass after reviews. Think we caught a break with the Chase TD being overturned as well. 

 

3rd KC loss the first play of the game Diggs fumbled, but Kincaid managed to bat the ball out of bounds. After the Damar Hamlin make-a-wish fake punt KC was inches away from scoring a TD, but we forced a fumble inside the 1 yard line that went out the endzone. 

 

4th KC loss the Chiefs dropped multiple easy INTs. Mahomes gifted us with a turnover after he fumbled a good snap. Bills fumbled 4 times and we recovered all 4 of them. 

 

If anything we've been extremely lucky with the fluky bounces in these games. 

 

 

[billsfan89]

Josh unlike Peyton Manning who had a bad playoff record early in his career actually has played well in all but three playoff losses (the Texans in 2019, KC in 2020, and the Bengals in 2022) and two out of those three were completely bad team losses and one his first playoff start. So even though the 2 vs. 7 matchup has inflated his playoff record it isn't like he has played bad in the divisional round. 2021 he was fantastic, 2023 he was good, and in both the Ravens and KC playoff games in 2024 he was good. He also would have played in that "perfect game in 2021 against NE as a 3 seed. 

 

Overall I don't put too much stock into it. I also think that had in 2023 the Bills had a bye week going into that KC game and not had to worry about the snow storm they beat KC as there would have been less injured players on the Bills and no rest disparity due to the massive snow storm. So it hasn't always played to Josh's and the Bills benefit. 

[BillsShredder83]

14 hours ago, Dafan said:

You can't say that whatsoever.  You're saying that in 4 of those years, the Bills would have had a bye.  Which means they could have rested more and played better.  You can't just eliminate their wins and expect the same results in the rest of the play offs.  

Yep, thats huge^^^.  Not to mention a full extra week to gameplan YOUR scheme, and against the team(s) you're most likely to play.  Even in the 2 years we went to AFCCG, we were massively banged up; 2021 Beasley was the huge one, but IIRC it was also Diggs and Jon Brown (this one im least confident on).

 

Last year ive blocked out, but I know there were a boatload including Bernard (Benford got hurt in game, so no help there).  Not only is it an extra week to rest up, but avoiding a game of potential injuries, and reducing wear and tear (effects availability and performance even when avail) when everyone on all teams is dealing with something, after already expanding to 17 games regular season.

 

Theres also morale boost.  Its enormous.  With how narrow the margin of error is, a week of and playing in Buff vs in KC, id feel pretty damn safe saying we would've got over KC in one of those games, had we had the 1 seed.

[Paup 1995MVP]

2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

Josh unlike Peyton Manning who had a bad playoff record early in his career actually has played well in all but three playoff losses (the Texans in 2019, KC in 2020, and the Bengals in 2022) and two out of those three were completely bad team losses and one his first playoff start. So even though the 2 vs. 7 matchup has inflated his playoff record it isn't like he has played bad in the divisional round. 2021 he was fantastic, 2023 he was good, and in both the Ravens and KC playoff games in 2024 he was good. He also would have played in that "perfect game in 2021 against NE as a 3 seed. 

 

Overall I don't put too much stock into it. I also think that had in 2023 the Bills had a bye week going into that KC game and not had to worry about the snow storm they beat KC as there would have been less injured players on the Bills and no rest disparity due to the massive snow storm. So it hasn't always played to Josh's and the Bills benefit. 

The Bills coaching has been marginal in the big playoff games w Josh and McDermott.  We all know the 13 seconds game.  The play calling last year against Baltimore was very conservative in the second half.  Brady packed it in, and it almost cost us the game.  The play calling in short yardage against KC last year in the AFCCG was predictable redundant and easy to stop.  That was the biggest reason for the loss IMO. 

 

By that point in the season after playing 18 or 19 games, the opposition knows your tendencies on both sides of the ball.  You have to change some things up, because your opponent is always going to be just as good as you.  And you are not going to dominate another well coached team deep in the playoffs.  It just doesn't happen very often.  And the Bills just do not change anything about their scheme in big playoff games.  And give the opposition different looks that they were not expecting.  That little edge is usually the difference.  McDermott is good at culture and keeping players happy and focused.  He is nothing special as a tactician.  That is the difference between an Andy Reid and Sean McVay coached team, and a Sean McDermott coached team.