Playoff record, rule changes and the Bills

[RoscoeParrish]

I saw a few post on some of points below and I wanted to put some things together.

 

#1 Josh Allen is the only QB with 6+ playoff wins and no SB appearance

 

#2 Josh Allen is 7-6 in the playoffs. McD is 7-7.

 

both of these stats are kind of interesting to me. Mostly in the context of the rule change in 2020, expanding the playoff field to 7 and eliminating the bye week for the #2 seed. 

 

Under the pre-2020 rules, the Bills would have a bye week in 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024.

 

thats 4 extra playoff games (all wins) against teams that would not have qualified for playoffs prior to 2020.

 

So under the old pre-2020 rules:

 

Josh Allen would be 3-6 in the postseason.

 

Sean McDermott would be 3-7.

 

Here’s another stat.

 

Since the rule changes, only ONE two seed has made the Super Bowl. And that was this season in the Eagles.

 

from 2010-2019, a two seed made the Super Bowl 5 times, good for 50%.

 

So, major points.

 

Has the 2020 rule change helped the PERCEPTION of the Bills playoff success with an inflated win total, but in reality, actually damaged their actual chance of playoff success by eliminating such an advantage?

[Buffalo Junction]

Does stopping at 2010 vs say 2000 change the percentages?

[Lionel Hutz]

I don't know why this is so hard for so many Bills fans to understand. McD just beats mediocre teams in the playoffs. Really the only impressive win was last year against the Ravens and that was a home game with terrible weather conditions and we just squeaked by with a few major blunders by the Ravens. 

[RoscoeParrish]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

Does stopping at 2010 vs say 2000 change the percentages?

Going back to 2000 is hard because the playoff format/divisions were different before the NFL expanded in 2002.

 

What I can say is that from 2003-2019, the two seed made the SB 7 times.

 

So closer to 41%. 

[Augie]

I’ll deal with what actually did happen. 

[17islongenough]

Fun fact once the NFL goes to an 8 team playoff the Bills will get the 1 seed every year.  

[Dafan]

52 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

I saw a few post on some of points below and I wanted to put some things together.

 

#1 Josh Allen is the only QB with 6+ playoff wins and no SB appearance

 

#2 Josh Allen is 7-6 in the playoffs. McD is 7-7.

 

both of these stats are kind of interesting to me. Mostly in the context of the rule change in 2020, expanding the playoff field to 7 and eliminating the bye week for the #2 seed. 

 

Under the pre-2020 rules, the Bills would have a bye week in 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024.

 

thats 4 extra playoff games (all wins) against teams that would not have qualified for playoffs prior to 2020.

 

So under the old pre-2020 rules:

 

Josh Allen would be 3-6 in the postseason.

 

Sean McDermott would be 3-7.

 

Here’s another stat.

 

Since the rule changes, only ONE two seed has made the Super Bowl. And that was this season in the Eagles.

 

from 2010-2019, a two seed made the Super Bowl 5 times, good for 50%.

 

So, major points.

 

Has the 2020 rule change helped the PERCEPTION of the Bills playoff success with an inflated win total, but in reality, actually damaged their actual chance of playoff success by eliminating such an advantage?

You can't say that whatsoever.  You're saying that in 4 of those years, the Bills would have had a bye.  Which means they could have rested more and played better.  You can't just eliminate their wins and expect the same results in the rest of the play offs.  

Edited 1 hour ago by Dafan

[RoscoeParrish]

8 minutes ago, Augie said:

I’ll deal with what actually did happen. 

I hear you, but what “actually did happen” is that the playoff seeding rules changed, giving the Bills opponents in round 1 that would not have made the playoffs in previous years, instead of a bye for the Bills to rest their players.

 

That’s what did happen.

5 minutes ago, Dafan said:

You can't saw that whatsoever.  You're saying that in 4 of those years, the Bills would have had a bye.  Which means they could have rested more and played better.  You can't just climate their wins and expect the same results in the rest of the play offs.  

That’s part of my point.

 

we may have had a worse win total in the playoffs, but with the advantage of a bye, maybe we change the results of at least one of those other games.

 

 

[Buffalo Ballin]

20 minutes ago, Lionel Hutz said:

I don't know why this is so hard for so many Bills fans to understand. McD just beats mediocre teams in the playoffs. Really the only impressive win was last year against the Ravens and that was a home game with terrible weather conditions and we just squeaked by with a few major blunders by the Ravens. 

Bingo!

 

When situations get tougher, McD crumples like paper. Dead @ss. This team starts and ends with Josh Allen. Sprinkled with good O-line. Maybe some cameos from RB James Cook this season.

[BillytheKid]

18 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

Going back to 2000 is hard because the playoff format/divisions were different before the NFL expanded in 2002.

 

What I can say is that from 2003-2019, the two seed made the SB 7 times.

 

So closer to 41%. 

You are comparing 16 years to 5 years. So it’s not apples to apples yet until you get the remaining 11 years. 

[Bills!Win!]

Not to get off topic, but I never realized until you mentioned the Eagles being the first team to win as the 2nd seed in the new format, that It’s Crazy that they hosted 3 straight playoff games 

Edited 1 hour ago by Bills!Win!

[djp14150]

1 hour ago, RoscoeParrish said:

I saw a few post on some of points below and I wanted to put some things together.

 

#1 Josh Allen is the only QB with 6+ playoff wins and no SB appearance

 

#2 Josh Allen is 7-6 in the playoffs. McD is 7-7.

 

both of these stats are kind of interesting to me. Mostly in the context of the rule change in 2020, expanding the playoff field to 7 and eliminating the bye week for the #2 seed. 

 

Under the pre-2020 rules, the Bills would have a bye week in 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024.

 

thats 4 extra playoff games (all wins) against teams that would not have qualified for playoffs prior to 2020.

 

So under the old pre-2020 rules:

 

Josh Allen would be 3-6 in the postseason.

 

Sean McDermott would be 3-7.

 

Here’s another stat.

 

Since the rule changes, only ONE two seed has made the Super Bowl. And that was this season in the Eagles.

 

from 2010-2019, a two seed made the Super Bowl 5 times, good for 50%.

 

So, major points.

 

Has the 2020 rule change helped the PERCEPTION of the Bills playoff success with an inflated win total, but in reality, actually damaged their actual chance of playoff success by eliminating such an advantage?

If they had the bye, who knows how rested and healthier they would have been.