billybob71 Posted August 3 Posted August 3 (edited) Chris Jones and Travis Kelce have to drop off significantly this year and JA is gonna have to go on a historical unprecedented run in the playoffs for the Bills to win one, JA is capable of doing that one of these years, unfortunately I feel that is the only way Buffalo gonna get one. On the flip side you could have put a number of QBs in for the Eagles in the super bowl and they still would have beat the Chiefs with how dominant that defense was Edited August 3 by billybob71 Quote
Buffalo716 Posted August 3 Posted August 3 (edited) 1 hour ago, RoscoeParrish said: Kinda feel like you are overstating the injuries a bit. KC lost their best WR and their best RB for the season and they were on their like 3rd LT of the season. Feel like that definitely offsets losing Taylor Rapp and Benford. you will have to remind me all the defensive talent the Panthers were missing in Super Bowl 50 when the Broncos put up 24 points after only scoring 22 PPG all season. I seem to recall elite players like Norman and Kuechly playing that day. Sorry the Kansas City Chiefs had all year to rearrange their offense They lost rice like week eight.. and they traded for future Hall of famer lol We literally lost our best safety right before the game.. we literally lost our best corner during the game.. and we had six other defensive players really banged up going into the game Yes as someone who played college football going into a game severely banged up hampers you.. they're pros and they're going to try their hardest It's usually not going to go your way.. especially on the road... Even when we got them at home in the playoffs.. again in the week before it we were calling up 35-year-old AJ Klein to cover Travis Kelce... We've been without Tre White ... We've been without Matt Milano, Bernard...Like our best players So in the divisional game a few years ago in the wild shootout where Josh Allen looked unstoppable and so did davis... Because the Chiefs got banged up on the spot and that's hard to fix ... we are not seeing the Chiefs 7-10 days after being injury decimated.. we're getting them 10 weeks later which is a lot of time for a professional team to acclimate The Chiefs had 10 weeks to fix everything... The bills were scrambling to rehab six defensive players leading up to the game.. lost our best safety right before it, and our best corner during the game Having to go to a guy who gets perennially picked on every time he's on the field... That literally moves the needle... We lost by three.. yes with our pro bowl corner and our best safety if they played all 60 minutes I don't believe they're scoring 32 because those players are stopping a score Timing of injuries is everything.. I don't include people like von Miller who got hurt years ago in a week 9 game.. because we had months to adjust That would be like the Chiefs losing McDuffie in the first quarter, and Bolton their middle linebacker not even playing.. the bills are scoring at least another touchdown or 10 points... We were down 2 key starters In 2023 playoffs we were missing starters in Bernard and Benford, and a key player off the bench rapp, also didn't play... Again multiple players who are playing a good amount of snaps ... They were without nnandi their starting defensive tackle who plays next to Chris Jones 3 guys who log a lot of snaps on defense and special teams... It's harder to overcome than one... Again only lost by three.. u can give them nnandi, and we get bernard and Benford and it's not 27-24... Something tells me there's a different outcome But that's why it takes luck also... When the Chiefs lost two starters on defense vs us Davis looked like Jerry Rice lol... We lost to a coin flip because both teams were tired on defense As for your Panthers broncos super bowl.. the Panthers outgained the broncos 315 yards to 194 a super bowl record differential for losing team... And had 21 first downs to the broncos 11.. another super bowl record deferential for a losing team The Panthers had four turnovers.. that's the reason they lost the game not anything Peyton Manning did to their defense... The four turnovers which they scored 17 of their 24 points off of... The defense wasn't the problem Edited August 3 by Buffalo716 2 Quote
LABILLBACKER Posted August 3 Posted August 3 Nothing would make me happier (besides a Lombardi) to see Kermit follow that embarrassing SB performance with a playoff-less season. 1 Quote
Sojourner Posted August 3 Posted August 3 (edited) 6 hours ago, RoscoeParrish said: The entire AFCW also plays each other. Let’s say the Chiefs go 3-3 in their division. Do you think there will be another team in their division that goes better than 3-3? They all have to play the Chiefs twice. Huh? That is moot. The whole point I was alluding to the chance they don’t come out with the best divisional record man… Edited August 3 by Sojourner Quote
st pete gogolak Posted August 3 Posted August 3 Another factor pointing towards a difficult season for the Chiefs. The Division should be very tough. On paper, both the Broncos and Chargers will be tough outs. Raiders should be better. At least they have a legitimate QB. Kudos to them if they come out of it with best record in the AFC. Quote
ganesh Posted August 3 Posted August 3 9 hours ago, Buffalo716 said: That's one of the biggest over ratings that people tend to do here I'm not saying he's not very good he is But even sean McDermott Total defense wise is even on a higher tier... Which is why it's crazy people bash McDermott I could just break this down purely by numbers Steve spagnola has been a head coach or defensive coordinator for 16 years Sean McDermott has been a head coach or defensive coordinator for 16 years Spagnola YPG allowed - 5 top 10 defenses McDermott -8 spagnola PPG allowed - 7 top 10..5 bottom5 McDermott - 6 top 10, 1 bottom 5 Takeaways- spagnola - 4 top 10 McDermott - 14 top 10... 8 top 5 Rushing defense top 10- spagnola- 5 top 10 McDermott - 6 top 10 Passing defense yards per game- spagnola - 4 top 10 McDermott - 5 top ten Passing touchdowns allowed- spagnola - 6 top 10 McDermott - 8 top 10 Sean McDermott is on a world class level of creating a defense that forces turnovers year in and year out.. he's in Bill belichick territory with that.. generally turnovers fluctuate year to year... Not with a McDermott or Bill belichick defense The only difference is spagnola has had relatively very healthy defenses in January and February.. Sean McDermott has been playing third string linebackers, backup safeties and cornerbacks We had eight defensive players on the injury report going into our playoff game versus the Chiefs last year lol You can't overcome that in NFL playoff games where the margin of error is so small.. And we were still right there That's the difference... Sean McDermott is absolutely top to bottom a better developer of talent and has a very successful system when he has the players A high caliber defense doesn't give up 32 points in the AFC Championship game. Quote
SCBills Posted August 3 Posted August 3 9 hours ago, billybob71 said: Chris Jones and Travis Kelce have to drop off significantly this year and JA is gonna have to go on a historical unprecedented run in the playoffs for the Bills to win one, JA is capable of doing that one of these years, unfortunately I feel that is the only way Buffalo gonna get one. On the flip side you could have put a number of QBs in for the Eagles in the super bowl and they still would have beat the Chiefs with how dominant that defense was It’s not just that … Jones/Kelce have been a big part of it (as have injuries to the Bills Defense) .. but the Chiefs role players make plays as well. The whole team steps up around Mahomes in these games against us. Meanwhile, Josh Allen’s best targets and most reliable players fold. It’s not just the Defense. It’s not just Kincaid dropping a pass to end the game. It’s our version of Kelce/Hill, in Stefon Diggs, dropping one of the most elite clutch big throws I’ve ever seen in my life. It’s our Wall of Fame Left Tackle, Dion Dawkins, getting absolutely dog walked in a split second to disrupt Allen in what would have been a go ahead TD late in the 4th at home. Followed by a kick missed to tie that Harrison Butker is always going to make. The entire team & coaching staff, outside Allen & I’ll throw in Cook after his last game, need to discard this choke gene they have against KC. 2 2 Quote
RoscoeParrish Posted August 3 Posted August 3 9 hours ago, Buffalo716 said: They lost rice like week eight.. and they traded for future Hall of famer lol If we are calling adding DHop who had 400 yards with the the Chiefs “a future HoFer” then McDermott has had a HoF EDGE for the last 3 seasons. Like I said, McDermott hasn’t had a great defensive playoff game in Buffalo since 2020. Spags has had several since then. Maybe he’s just the unluckiest best defensive mind of all time, or maybe Reid just kinda has his number. I lean to the latter. Spags lost his starting safety in 2023 in the first Q of the divisional round. No one talks about it because his defense didn’t fall apart. 1 Quote
90sBills Posted August 3 Posted August 3 11 hours ago, Buffalo716 said: Sorry the Kansas City Chiefs had all year to rearrange their offense They lost rice like week eight.. and they traded for future Hall of famer lol They lost Rice in week 4. Lost Pacheco week 2. Lost Hollywood in the preseason. Rotating door at LT all season that couldn’t protect Mahomes. It’s ok to acknowledge that they did a great job getting to the Super Bowl despite those adversities. 3 hours ago, st pete gogolak said: Another factor pointing towards a difficult season for the Chiefs. The Division should be very tough. On paper, both the Broncos and Chargers will be tough outs. Raiders should be better. At least they have a legitimate QB. Kudos to them if they come out of it with best record in the AFC. The division was tough last year. 3 teams came out of there for the playoffs. Until they don’t win it just pencil them in every year as division champs. Just like the Bills in the East. 2 Quote
billsfan89 Posted August 3 Posted August 3 KC’s gonna be elite this year barring catastrophic injury. To be the man you gotta beat the man… 1 Quote
machine gun kelly Posted August 3 Posted August 3 My thought that domes to mind is the West has two legitimate competitors in division with the Broncos #1 defense and another year to develop the offense, Payton and Harbaugh are two of the more accomplished coaches, so the other is the Chargers. Lastly, the Raiders now have Pete Carroll a SB winning NFL coach, and more experience in their new year, and Geno Smith who played well enough in Seattle. KC finally has some real competition in the AFCW. 1 Quote
BillytheKid Posted August 3 Author Posted August 3 (edited) I’m not here or posting this stuff to argue with anyone. Just based off of all of the research I have done looking into past metrics and historical patterns there is a strong convergence of things that lean to KC not making the playoffs or if they do they lose in the wildcard round. It mainly leans to them not even making the playoffs. I thought I would post it because it is interesting and if you disagree with me that is fine. Here is one more reason I’ll add that I think KC misses the playoffs. Kansas City was definitely lucky last year and won above what their underlying statistical metrics were. Of the very very few teams in all of those categories I posted in the original post that ended up doing halfway decent the next year those teams had good underlying statistical metrics that same year going into the next year. Kansas City doesn’t. They have mediocre to bad underlying metrics. Teams in the past the had the same or very very close underlying metrics to what KC did last year going into the following year and how they did What the 4 Teams with KC-like Metrics did the following year and did any of them make the playoffs? We’re looking at teams that had: • Winning records • Offensive metrics similar to KC’s 2024 (e.g., ~5.1 YPP, negative EPA, poor WR separation) • Defensive metrics similar to KC’s 2024 (e.g., ~5.3 YPP allowed, average turnovers, low sack rate Playoffs? 2022 Vikings 13–4 -> 7–10 Missed 2016 Raiders 12–4 ->6–10 Missed 2004 Falcons 11–5 -> 8–8 Missed 1994 Patriots 10–6-> 6–10 Missed Result: 0 out of 4 made the playoffs the following season Despite winning records, none of these teams sustained success the next year when saddled with: • Offensive inefficiency • Defensive mediocrity • Low disruption metrics (turnovers, sacks) Had to edit it as there are only 4 teams that matched it. I was looking at two different lists of things when putting this together and accidentally added wrong info from another list on the last 3 teams. KC does have a little higher chance on the offensive end of doing better but I still think everything combined they drop off. Edited August 3 by BillytheKid 1 Quote
Zerovoltz Posted August 3 Posted August 3 10 minutes ago, BillytheKid said: I’m not here or posting this stuff to argue with anyone. Just based off of all of the research I have done looking into past metrics and historical patterns there is a strong convergence of things that lean to KC not making the playoffs or if they do they lose in the wildcard round. It mainly leans to them not even making the playoffs. I thought I would post it because it is interesting and if you disagree with me that is fine. Here is one more reason I’ll add that I think KC misses the playoffs. Kansas City was definitely lucky last year and won above what their underlying statistical metrics were. Of the very very few teams in all of those categories I posted in the original post that ended up doing halfway decent the next year those teams had good underlying statistical metrics that same year going into the next year. Kansas City doesn’t. They have mediocre to bad underlying metrics. Teams in the past the had the same or very very close underlying metrics to what KC did last year going into the following year and how they did What the 7 Teams with KC-like Metrics did the following year and did any of them make the playoffs? We’re looking at teams that had: • Winning records • Offensive metrics similar to KC’s 2024 (e.g., ~5.1 YPP, negative EPA, poor WR separation) • Defensive metrics similar to KC’s 2024 (e.g., ~5.3 YPP allowed, average turnovers, low sack rate Playoffs? 2022 Vikings 13–4 -> 7–10 Missed 2016 Raiders 12–4 ->6–10 Missed 2004 Falcons 11–5 -> 8–8 Missed 1994 Patriots 10–6-> 6–10 Missed 1983 Giants 9–7-> 3–12–1 Missed 1979 Bengals 8–8 -> 6–10 Missed 1975 Chargers 8–6 -> 6–8 Missed Result: 0 out of 7 made the playoffs the following season Despite winning records, none of these teams sustained success the next year when saddled with: • Offensive inefficiency • Defensive mediocrity • Low disruption metrics (turnovers, sacks) No Head Coach/QB Combination that was together over 5 years without winning the super bowl...EVER went on to win one. This Josh and McD's 8th season together. Quote
Just Jack Posted August 3 Posted August 3 Thanks @BillytheKid, I'm a numbers nerd also as you appear to be. Quote
Sierra Foothills Posted August 3 Posted August 3 32 minutes ago, Just Jack said: Thanks @BillytheKid, I'm a numbers nerd also as you appear to be. You don't look like a numbers nerd... you actually look kind of like a knucklehead. 😆 Quote
Just Jack Posted August 3 Posted August 3 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said: You don't look like a numbers nerd... you actually look kind of like a knucklehead. 😆 And you look like an Airstream trailer. Which reminds me of a funny story. Meeting another poster here for the first time, they also mentioned I do not look like my avatar. Which I found funny because their avatar was OJ's mug shot. Edited August 3 by Just Jack 2 Quote
Sierra Foothills Posted August 3 Posted August 3 1 minute ago, Just Jack said: And you look like an Airstream trailer. BTW, is your avatar Mike Holmes? I liked that guy. Quote
Just Jack Posted August 3 Posted August 3 9 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said: BTW, is your avatar Mike Holmes? I liked that guy. No, it's the Planet Fitness guy. BTW, I have one brother that could pass for Mike Holmes. 1 Quote
BillytheKid Posted August 3 Author Posted August 3 1 hour ago, Zerovoltz said: No Head Coach/QB Combination that was together over 5 years without winning the super bowl...EVER went on to win one. This Josh and McD's 8th season together. Yes I know this. I never said Buffalo was going to win anything. My only point in this thread was to point out all of the things going against KC this year. They have played deep into the playoffs 3 straight years and I can almost Guaranty They will be having a hangover from last year and not winning the Super Bowl after trying to get their 3rd in a row. Their total wins is set at 11.5 and I’m going under on that wager big time. They could get to 11 wins and I win it. I think they may end up 10-7. As far as Buffalo who knows. I think it will come down to Buffalo and Baltimore in the AFC. I’m not predicting for sure either will win a Super Bowl only hoping Buffalo does. Who knows, the Chargers may be a sleeper team with Jim coaching them and sneak through. Quote
MasterStrategist Posted August 4 Posted August 4 On 7/31/2025 at 3:19 PM, BillytheKid said: (I wrote this…This is why I don’t think KC makes the playoffs or if they do they get beat in the Wildcard round.) Three Strikes Against the Chiefs: Why History Says 2025 Could Be a Fall from Grace The Kansas City Chiefs enter the 2025 season with a résumé unmatched in modern NFL history: three straight Super Bowl appearances, back-to-back titles in 2022–23 and 2023–24, and a flawless 11-0 record in one-score games last season — only to lose the Super Bowl by 18 points. But beneath the surface of this dominance lies a convergence of three historical red flags — and no team has ever faced all three at once. --- ⚠️ Red Flag #1: Undefeated in One-Score Games Teams that dominate one-score games often regress hard the following season. The margin for error is razor-thin, and luck tends to even out. • 2022 Vikings: 11-0 → 7-10, missed playoffs • 2015 Panthers: 10-0 → 6-10, missed playoffs • 1998 Falcons: 9-0 Super Bowl loss → 5-11, missed playoffs • 2020 Steelers: 8-0 → Wildcard loss • 2006 Colts: 9-0 Won Super Bowl → Lost in divisional round Historical hit rate: • ✅ ~40% chance to make playoffs • ❌ 0% chance to reach the AFC Championship the following year --- 🏆 Red Flag #2: Three Straight Super Bowl Appearances Only three other teams have made it to three straight Super Bowls prior to KC. None of them won the Super Bowl the following year. • 1971–73 Dolphins: Lost in divisional round after winning back to back Super Bowls. • 1990–93 Bills: Missed playoffs after fourth straight appearance• Note: They did return to the Super Bowl after their third straight, but they had never won two in a row or gone undefeated in one-score games the year prior — unlike Kansas City. • 2016–18 Patriots: Lost in Wildcard round Kansas City (2023-25) Only one out of these 4 teams to go 11-0 in one score games the previous year. Historical hit rate: • ✅ 100% chance to make playoffs • ⚠️ ~33% chance to return to the Super Bowl • ❌ 0% chance to win it --- 💥 Red Flag #3: Losing a Super Bowl by 14+ Points Teams that get blown out in the Super Bowl rarely bounce back strong. Since 2000, here’s what happened the following year: • 2000 Giants: Missed playoffs • 2002 Raiders: Missed playoffs • 2014 Broncos: Lost in divisional round • 2015 Panthers: Missed playoffs • 2021 Chiefs: Lost AFC Championship• Only team to return to the AFC title game — but they hadn’t gone undefeated in one-score games the year prior. • 2025 Chiefs: Lost by 18 points — results pending Historical hit rate: • ⚠️ ~20–30% chance to make playoffs • ❌ ~10% chance to reach AFC Championship • ❌ ~0–3% chance to return to Super Bowl --- 📉 The Verdict: No Precedent, No Safety Net Each of these trends alone has historically spelled trouble. But no team has ever entered a season with all three stacked against them. Kansas City is the first. 📊 Combined Odds Based on Historical Precedent Outcome Estimated Odds Make Playoffs 25–35% Reach AFC Championship 5–10% Make Super Bowl 0–3% Win Super Bowl 0% 🔮 Prediction: The Fall Is Coming History doesn’t just whisper — it screams. The Chiefs are walking into a statistical buzzsaw. If the past is any guide, they’ll either miss the playoffs entirely or exit early in the Wildcard round. Betting man like myself, odds of Chiefs not making playoffs anywhere from +290 to +310 or take Baltimore and Buffalo winning the AFC Championship both at +350. Im 100% in agreement, betting wise. I am all over Denver or SD winning that division, from a betting perspective. KC masked alot of weaknesses with an elite defense at times LY. I think that will be the biggest regression this year, injuries or otherwise, they won't be able to hold onto as many close games. KC missing the playoffs is a stretch IMO, but I could see a KC at Houston wild card matchup - going Houstons way. Quote
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.