Keon Coleman success by route - Not pretty

[Figster]

6 hours ago, LEBills said:

 

Reception perception looks at each route run by the player and decides when the route is “won” due to separation on all routes ran rather than completion percentage on when a player was targeted. Doubling the routes gives you a greater sample size but isn’t really needed for a comparison. Also, these RPs are from their last year in college when Keon ran 404 routes vs McConkey who only ran 150 due to injury.

 

It is true that they are different players. McConkey game is geared more towards separation than Keon who is more about physicality. That’s why McConkeys score is much higher in the RP at most routes. McConkey did have an 86 yard touchdown in their playoff game. IMO, unless Coleman can become a better route runner to generate separation he will just be a very streaky player. His biggest plays last year were a slant where he broke a tackle and had a lot of free space to run or some scramble drill work. He has a role in an offense that way and as a weapon in the red zone, but that would be more of a WR3 type role than a leading WR.

I appreciate the explanation. Reception perception to me is subjective IMO. Speedier, smaller WR's will excel over the bigger more physical WR's in the NFL.  

[Steptide]

We'll see how Josh jacons and Elijah Moore pan out, but if the bills didn't sign those guys, I'd be really worried. Coleman might become a super star, who knows, but if his numbers this year are not much better than last year, 😬. He's got alot of work ahead of him this season. 

[Maine-iac]

To Coleman's credit if you look at his under center or play action receiving numbers they really pop.  Catching close to 70 percent of his passes.  He also has great numbers on 1st and 2nd down.  Averaging 27 yards per reception on 1st downs and almost 16 on second.  Shotgun and 3rd down are not his thing.  My 2 second analysis would be if the defense thinks we might run the ball he is far more effective than known passing downs.  They need to work in more of the higher percentage stuff (slants and screens) which he can do, to go along with the big boy, jump ball stuff they force to him.  I also think a lot of the end zone jump balls they throw to him are pretty badly thrown and there's a lot of room for improvement in getting him the ball.  Is he going to break out and be some kind of star even in perfect conditions?  I'm not going to try and sell that but everyone seems to love Pickens and he had 900 yards and 3 TD's last year.  I think Coleman can do something in that realm.  Could we use a speed guy to change things up.  Absolutely I'd agree with that but who are you signing, who are you sitting, and which plays would they be on the field?  I'm guessing the "speed" guy wouldn't be on the field that often.

[dave mcbride]

On 5/17/2025 at 10:58 AM, Starr Almighty said:

Steve Smith grades Keon and it's not favorable 

 

 

Wow, this is a great breakdown by Steve Smith. Love it. He’s clearly on the same wavelength as @Kirby Jackson and @GunnerBill! “Street Route” Coleman!

Edited 3 hours ago by dave mcbride

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Wow, this is a great breakdown by Steve Smith. Love it. He’s clearly on the same wavelength as @Kirby Jackson and @GunnerBill!

What does Steve Smith know? (Sarcasm).

 

Some fans will back bad picks and players long after they are gone and I don't get it.

 

Coleman has had his "welcome to the NFL" Season. We will see if he improves,I don't see him being what many envisioned.  Sometime they are what they are.

[Gunsgoodtime]

17 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

What does Steve Smith know? (Sarcasm).

 

Some fans will back bad picks and players long after they are gone and I don't get it.

 

Coleman has had his "welcome to the NFL" Season. We will see if he improves,I don't see him being what many envisioned.  Sometime they are what they are.

Bills homerism, probably the same with other fan bases.  I asked what elite player has Beane drafted outside of Josh Allen and was hit with disagrees and lists of current Bills players who are average to slightly above average.  I dont own a pair of those rose colored glasses they do lol

Edited 3 hours ago by Gunsgoodtime

[GunnerBill]

24 minutes ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

Bills homerism, probably the same with other fan bases.  I asked what elite player has Beane drafted outside of Josh Allen and was hit with disagrees and lists of current Bills players who are average to slightly above average.  I dont own a pair of those rose colored glasses they do lol

 

I think there is a long list of "good". I think "slightly above average" is harsh. Beane has drafted a lot of good players. But you are absolutely right, the list of elite guys he has drafted begins and ends with Josh Allen.

 

Of the current roster (excluding rookies) the two guys I think have the potential to get there if they can improve again are Spencer Brown and Christian Benford. They both had good seasons in 2023 and excellent seasons in 2024. If either of them goes up another level they are there. Whether they will remains to be seen.

[oldmanfan]

Let’s just shoot him.  And from now on with rookies if they have one bad outing, the same.

[BillsFanForever19]

7 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Some fans will back bad picks and players long after they are gone and I don't get it.

 

And some fans give up on young players and declare "sometimes they are what they are" too quickly...

 

Keon Coleman just turned 22 years old and is entering Year 2. Like many Rookies, it was a mixed bag. Some good, some bad. He was showing improvement before that brutal hit from Jordan Poyer derailed things.

 

Was he the guy I wanted from the Draft or the guy most of us wanted? No. But the league is filled with players, even here in Buffalo, that took 2-3 years of development before they showed who "they are". Am I sure he's going to be great? No. But i'm definitely not ready to say he's a bust after one season.

[appoo]

 

this is about 2 weeks before his injury 

[BullBuchanan]

On 5/16/2025 at 8:05 PM, DJB said:

And for reference here is Ladd who many of us vouched for 

 

 

Coleman needs to step up or Beane massively screwed this one up 

Beane didn't "screw up" anything with this pick as McConkey was never on the board. They've been chasing a big body physical player in Buffalo for 20 years and Beane has wanted one his whole tenure too. The goal was to get a guy for Josh who's open even when he's not open. It's the same reason we let KC trade for Worthy. That type of player didn't exist to our FO. It was likely Thomas, Coleman, and then Legette

On 5/16/2025 at 9:18 PM, GASabresIUFan said:

By the way, Beane knows he blew the Coleman pick.  (40 4.61)

 

Since he made that pick, all the skill players on both sides of the ball have speed. 

 

At WR were have added Palmer (4.52 @ 6'1 210), Moore (4.35), and Prather (4.46),   

AT DB & S: Bishop (4.45), Forest (4.41), Hancock (4.42), Hairston (4.28), Strong (4.50)

 

 

That's a wild way to get at the wrong conclusion. He got the player he wanted for the role he wanted. He didn't want a speedster for that role, but he did want them for other roles.

[appoo]

This is about a week prior to his injury 

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/nfl-rookie-watch-top-10-keon-coleman-continues-to-break-through-in-buffalo
 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2024/10/30/24283326/keon-coleman-buffalo-bills-rookie-breakout-analysis-blocking
 

Over the last two weeks Coleman is averaging 0.66 EPA per target when lined up on the outside, good for ninth in the NFL with a minimum of five targets when lined up out wide

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

And some fans give up on young players and declare "sometimes they are what they are" too quickly...

 

Keon Coleman just turned 22 years old and is entering Year 2. Like many Rookies, it was a mixed bag. Some good, some bad. He was showing improvement before that brutal hit from Jordan Poyer derailed things.

 

Was he the guy I wanted from the Draft or the guy most of us wanted? No. But the league is filled with players, even here in Buffalo, that took 2-3 years of development before they showed who "they are". Am I sure he's going to be great? No. But i'm definitely not ready to say he's a bust after one season.

 

He also spent a lot of his time growing up on basketball. You don’t get offered by Tom Izzo without playing a LOT of hoops. Maybe he’s a bit behind in terms of refined route running as a result? Football became full time for him later than most. 🤷‍♂️

 

It will be interesting to see going forward. I didn’t love him at FSU, nor did my FSU grad son, but he’s ours now and I hope he keeps developing. I liked a lot of what I saw, at times. 

[appoo]

https://www.reddit.com/r/buffalobills/s/uqosyCzTuD
 

Allen to Coleman ranked 10th in the NFL in EPA

[Doc]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I think there is a long list of "good". I think "slightly above average" is harsh. Beane has drafted a lot of good players. But you are absolutely right, the list of elite guys he has drafted begins and ends with Josh Allen.

 

Of the current roster (excluding rookies) the two guys I think have the potential to get there if they can improve again are Spencer Brown and Christian Benford. They both had good seasons in 2023 and excellent seasons in 2024. If either of them goes up another level they are there. Whether they will remains to be seen.

 

Wyatt Teller.

[appoo]

If there’s any hot garbage, it’s amateurs trying to get famous for grading players without knowing the play or philosophy.

 

theres a reason why even people like Ben Johnson cite numbers like EPA, because it’s cold hard objective fact, and one of the most robust metrics we have in terms of holding up to context 

[BillsFanForever19]

39 minutes ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

Bills homerism, probably the same with other fan bases.  I asked what elite player has Beane drafted outside of Josh Allen and was hit with disagrees and lists of current Bills players who are average to slightly above average.  I dont own a pair of those rose colored glasses they do lol

 

Average to slightly above average is underselling a lot of good to very good players that have been Drafted. There aren't many teams that have Drafted multiple truly "elite" players and if they have - they haven't been picking where we pick on a regular basis. 

 

If the team was filled with average to slightly average players across the board, we wouldn't get to where we go consistently even with Josh Allen as our Quarterback.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Doc said:

 

Wyatt Teller.

 

Wyatt is an interesting one. He had a couple of elite level years in 2020 and 2021. He hasn't really been that since. Over his career I think he is more in the good category than elite. But he did have a couple of elite seasons, so you have an argument I think.

[SoonerBillsFan]

35 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

And some fans give up on young players and declare "sometimes they are what they are" too quickly...

 

Keon Coleman just turned 22 years old and is entering Year 2. Like many Rookies, it was a mixed bag. Some good, some bad. He was showing improvement before that brutal hit from Jordan Poyer derailed things.

 

Was he the guy I wanted from the Draft or the guy most of us wanted? No. But the league is filled with players, even here in Buffalo, that took 2-3 years of development before they showed who "they are". Am I sure he's going to be great? No. But i'm definitely not ready to say he's a bust after one season.

I said he needs to drastically improve this year, are you debating that?  So far Coleman is exactly what his pre draft e v a l was,and it's not good.

 

As for as just being 22, other 20-22 year old seem to do just fine,but they sure seem to struggle more if drafted by beane.

 

It's a make or break year for him, step up or it's a wasted 2nd round pick.  And BTW, I am praying Mad Max can step in and be an impact player this year. It would be nice the Bills actually have one vs watching other teams have them

Edited 2 hours ago by SoonerBillsFan

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I said he needs to drastically i.prove this year, are you debating that?  So far Coleman is exactly what his pre draft e v a l was,and it's not good.

 

As for as just being 22, other 20-22 year old seem to do just fine,but they sure seem to struggle more if drafted by beane.

 

It's a make or break year for him, step up or it's a wasted 2nd round pick.  And BTW, I am praying Mad Max can step in and be an impact player this year. It would be nice the Bills actually have one vs watching other teams have them

He needs to play like he did before his injury.  With some improvement.  
 

Can you expand on your second paragraph statement?  Names for example?  Or how many 20-22 year olds that Beane drafted that struggled?

Edited 2 hours ago by oldmanfan