Keon Coleman success by route - Not pretty

[GASabresIUFan]

7 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

If he was someone that is that good and just as good on the Outside, he'd be on the Outside full time for the Chargers. Instead, he took 65% of his snaps from the Slot - while having guys like Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer on the Outside. 

 

You can’t make that assumption.  Just because LA used him inside at the snap is not an indication that’s how he be used in Buffalo.  LA had outside receivers when Ladd was drafted.  
 

Buffalo needed outside help.  Had they drafted Ladd he’d have been used where needed.  
 

The truth is where a WR starts on the line is less important than the routes he runs, the depth of his catches and where on the field the catch is made.  Shakir catches the ball inside 2-3 yards down the field.  That’s a slot receiver.  Ladd caught the ball on average over 9 yards down the field.  Shakir and Ladd are different kind of players.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

You can’t make that assumption.  Just because LA used him inside at the snap is not an indication that’s how he be used in Buffalo.  LA had outside receivers when Ladd was drafted.  
 

Buffalo needed outside help.  Had they drafted Ladd he’d have been used where needed.  
 

The truth is where a WR starts on the line is less important than the routes he runs, the depth of his catches and where on the field the catch is made.  Shakir catches the ball inside 2-3 yards down the field.  That’s a slot receiver.  Ladd caught the ball on average over 9 yards down the field.  Shakir and Ladd are different kind of players.

 

They really didn't. They had a round 1 bust and Josh Palmer. And even when they were getting zero production from them they left Ladd in the slot. Because he is a slot receiver.

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They really didn't. They had a round 1 bust and Josh Palmer. And even when they were getting zero production from them they left Ladd in the slot. Because he is a slot receiver.

Probably, but I still think he has more diversity in his game. I understand that NFL DBs are not the same as college by a long shot. McConkey could play on the outside in college. I believe he'd get more natural separation than Coleman, and he's a polished route runner. Anyway, Coleman is also a slot receiver for the most part, but he has the physical attributes that maybe he grows into a Gabe Davis WR2, hopefully with better hands.

[MikePJ76]

The whining and obsession with wide receivers here never ends

[SoonerBillsFan]

10 hours ago, SoTier said:

Another day, another thread where the "We're doomed because we don't have a great WR" fraternity beats the same dead horse. 

No one is saying great WR,so far Colmen isn't even good. It would be nice if fans quit kissing beanes butt and putting their heads in the sand in regards to Kincaid and Coleman JUST because they are on the team.

 

If either were on another team those backing them now would say they sucked and not be giving the bs excuses they are for those players.

 

Bottom line, both need to step up big time this year. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Probably, but I still think he has more diversity in his game. I understand that NFL DBs are not the same as college by a long shot. McConkey could play on the outside in college. I believe he'd get more natural separation than Coleman, and he's a polished route runner. Anyway, Coleman is also a slot receiver for the most part, but he has the physical attributes that maybe he grows into a Gabe Davis WR2, hopefully with better hands.

 

McConkey isn't Shakir. He can play some snaps outside. But he isn't going to be more than serviceable outside. Where he will shine will be in the slot. 

 

As for Coleman I said he was a big slot here well before the draft before any of the big name talking heads were saying it. You don't to persuade me on that score.

[starrymessenger]

10 hours ago, sven233 said:

As you all know, like many here, I was not a fan of the Coleman pick.  I had him rated as a late 3rd or 4rh rounder.  The fact is, if you can't get open in college, you are not going to get open in the NFL.  And that was shown last year.  Outside of a couple of plays where he was kind of schemed open and a couple of slants, he didn't make a lot of plays within the structure of the offense.  He made a couple plays deep down the field on scramble drill type stuff, but within the design of the play, it was rough going.  He was slow and had terrible footwork at the top of routes which allowed defenders to close extremely quickly if he did create a half step of separation.

 

The way I see it, to get anything out of him, 2 things need to happen.  First, you have to use him on routes where theoretically he can win (using him out of the slot more as well).  That means slants and short to intermediate stop routes.  Look.....we would all like him to become a complete WR and win down the field.  I just think that he is limited physically and will never create the separation you would hope for.  That leads me to the second thing.....  Coleman himself needs to realize he's not going to beat any CB in a foot race down the field and he has to make the decision to play physical at the top of routes.  With his size and strength, he needs to start playing bully ball to create separation.  Put him in the film room and have him watch every snap of Anquan Boldin's career.  Boldin couldn't run worth a darn either, but he had a long, successful career just bullying DBs with his big frame and strength.

 

I am not sure Coleman will ever develop into anything other than a depth WR at best.  In a dream scenario, he figures it out and he becomes a WR2 option, but he has a long way to go to get there.  Rooting for the guy to do it because he seems like a great kid and I always want guys to succeed.  It would help our offense dramatically if he finds a way to take a big step this season.

From day one Boldin has been my comp for Coleman. Boldin certainly did well playing from the slot, esp with Saints, and I feel pretty sure Coleman can line up as a big slot. But for the majority of Boldin's career, certainly earlier on, he lined up outside and was very effective in that role. Even in his last year he lined up outside for 45% of his snaps. His career average depth of target is 12.8 yards, similar to Larry Fitzgerald or Brandon Marshall. Boldin was also used to attack all field levels and had a diversified route-running skill set. Boldin was slower than Coleman.

Boldin was good from the get go. Coleman is more a work in progress. But I don't think he is necessarily limited or incapable of significant improvement/development. Actually I tend to think he can. Like you I say he needs to do what Boldin did - win with ball skills, toughness, length, physicality, smarts, yac etc...

[Mr. WEO]

he can't run all those routes with an injured wrist...

[RoscoeParrish]

31 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

You can’t make that assumption.  Just because LA used him inside at the snap is not an indication that’s how he be used in Buffalo.  LA had outside receivers when Ladd was drafted.  
 

Buffalo needed outside help.  Had they drafted Ladd he’d have been used where needed.  
 

The truth is where a WR starts on the line is less important than the routes he runs, the depth of his catches and where on the field the catch is made.  Shakir catches the ball inside 2-3 yards down the field.  That’s a slot receiver.  Ladd caught the ball on average over 9 yards down the field.  Shakir and Ladd are different kind of players.

Well the Chargers lost Palmer now. 
 

So is Ladd gonna be a 50-50 outside guy? 
 

I’m thinking no.

[BillsDad51]

6 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Always find it comical, half this board has the patience of my 7 yr old.  

 

Coleman wasn't even drinking age when we drafted him LY...cue the Edmunds jokes.

 

People need to learn patience and very few on here see the traits as to why Beane drafted him, and can project those.  Now will Coleman hit that ceiling, up to him.

 

But he has put on more muscle, looks quicker this offseason.  Based on how we use him (Adot 15.2), we needed him improve his strenghth at route breaks and mainly downfield at the catch point.  

 

He's a freak athlete, I could careless about his forty.  He gets stronger at the catch point, that won't matter.  He's also one of the WRs Josh coveted out of last years class.

 

Point being, player progression year 1 to year 2 is a big deal.  James Cook, Terrel Bernard, Shakir, Spencer Brown...list goes on.  This team has a knack for getting year 2 jumps, Kincaid aside.

 

Give this kid a chance before you write him off - he showed glimpses last year, has been working his tail off this offseason.

Not doubting your post, but where did you see he put on more muscle and looks quicker this offseason? 

[Capco]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea. McConkey is a slot receiver. He is darn good but he is a slot receiver. Forget the fact that the Bills already had one.... I just never love the value of taking those guys round 1. Unles they are true elite guys (and maybe Ladd is) the positional value is hard to overlook.

 

I tend to agree with you philosophically.  But on the flip side, didn't Andre Reed play mostly out of the slot?  Production is production, regardless of where it comes from, right?

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Capco said:

 

I tend to agree with you philosophically.  But on the flip side, didn't Andre Reed play mostly out of the slot?  Production is production, regardless of where it comes from, right?

 

I'm young. I don't remember the 1890s 😂

 

EDIT: Of course production matters be all and end all.

Edited 3 hours ago by GunnerBill

[BADOLBILZ]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It isn't that he can't improve. It's that in round 1 (I know Keon was technically #33 but you take the point) you generally want high floor, high ceiling. By the end of the round those guys, inevitably, have gone so your choice is generally high floor, lower ceiling or low floor, high ceiling. Essnetially do you prefer the safe pick of swing for the fences. 

 

The problem with Keon is he is relatively low floor and lower ceiling. The way he has struggled so far in the pros is exactly the way those of us who didn't love him as a prospect thought he'd struggle. And the ways he has had success - screens and slants near the line of scrimmage 'ball in hand' and yards after catch - are the ways we thought he was most likely to succeed. When I first said as far ago as February last year that I thought he was a big slot at the next level I got a ton of pushback. Matt Harmon said the exact same thing 3 weeks later. So far the evidence supports our opinion.

 

 

I actually think Coleman's ceiling is high but not easily attainable.  

 

He has a lot of traits that remind me of Davante Adams.   Adams has arguably ended up becoming the best WR to come out of that gifted 2014 class.   Mike Evans is great and unbelievably consistent but he was never the best WR in the game like Adams was for several years in his prime.   Once Adams caught up with Evans in 2017 he has been the better player and their career numbers are pretty close despite Adams struggling early due to lacking any one incredible natural trait to allow him to win matchups immediately as a pro.

 

Coleman has that basketball level athleticism with size that you don't see a lot of in the NFL.   That should allow him to develop the nuanced aspects of the position.   He will have to work like Adams did(and prove as smart as Adams) to get that polished and that's probably not "likely" but he seems to be a good character guy so it's possible.   Nothing I saw in 2024 has changed my mind despite his struggles.    I was actually a bit surprised by the success he did have.

[Brandon]

10 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I argued well before the draft, as a UGA fan, that McConkey is not just a slot receiver, and had lined up on the outside a lot for the Dawgs. Don't give a damn that folks keep saying he's a slot. For certain, he's an NFL receiver, and maybe Coleman becomes one, too, but I don' think there's a chance Ladd is going to wash out, and there is a chance Coleman does. Obviously, I hope he makes a leap,and becomes great.

 

I agree,  I don't think he's just a slot,  but regardless,  even if he is,  I'd rather have two high level slot receivers and ask the coaches to figure out how to get them on the field at the same time rather than have one high level slot guy plus an X receiver that I'm not sure can make it on the outside in the NFL.  

Edited 3 hours ago by Brandon

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

12 hours ago, DJB said:

And for reference here is Ladd who many of us vouched for 

 

 

Coleman needs to step up or Beane massively screwed this one up 

Does this same guy have the routes run % for Addonai Mitchell, Jalen McMilan or Ricky Pearsall (He played inside but also on the outside when they lost Aiyuk) as those would be better comparisons imo.

[Bangarang]

12 hours ago, Virgil said:

Isn't McConkey more of a slot receiver and only 6'?  To me, McConkey was never on our board because we wanted an outside receiver, with Shakir in the slot.  

 

Coleman's best position could very well be as a slot guy as well. He just doesn't have the separation ability to consistently win on the outside.

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, Brandon said:

 

I agree,  I don't think he's just a slot,  but regardless,  even if he is,  I'd rather have two high level slot receivers and ask the coaches to figure out how to get them on the field at the same time rather than have one high level slot guy plus an X receiver that I'm not sure can make in the NFL.  

I'm inclined that way myself, though I am admittedly biased in favor of UGA players -- unless Badol is right about Coleman's ceiling and he reaches that unlikely degree of greatness. It's true that Coleman had some reasonable early success, but he responded poorly to injury. Nothing to do but hope at this point. 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, Capco said:

 

I tend to agree with you philosophically.  But on the flip side, didn't Andre Reed play mostly out of the slot?  Production is production, regardless of where it comes from, right?

 

 

McConkey probably isn't a starting NFL player back in Reed's prime.   It took defense's getting smaller, in response to running backs like Thurman Thomas destroying LB's in coverage,  for the league to take the next step and go to smaller slot-only receivers.   The slot receiver of today is the 3rd down back of Reed's era.  

 

Reed could play inside or out because he was a big, physical receiver even by todays standards and the outside CB's of his day tended to be smaller and less athletic than they are now.    That's a whole "what happened to all the athletes who used to play RB" evolution story,  but in short,  Reed is not really an apples-apples comp.

[Capco]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

McConkey probably isn't a starting NFL player back in Reed's prime.   It took defense's getting smaller, in response to running backs like Thurman Thomas destroying LB's in coverage,  for the league to take the next step and go to smaller slot-only receivers.   The slot receiver of today is the 3rd down back of Reed's era.  

 

Reed could play inside or out because he was a big, physical receiver even by todays standards and the outside CB's of his day tended to be smaller and less athletic than they are now.    That's a whole "what happened to all the athletes who used to play RB" evolution story,  but in short,  Reed is not really an apples-apples comp.

This is a great football analysis on the evolution of the game from Reed's era to today.  It makes a lot of sense.  Thanks for the info!

[BarleyNY]

25 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

From day one Boldin has been my comp for Coleman. Boldin certainly did well playing from the slot, esp with Saints, and I feel pretty sure Coleman can line up as a big slot. But for the majority of Boldin's career, certainly earlier on, he lined up outside and was very effective in that role. Even in his last year he lined up outside for 45% of his snaps. His career average depth of target is 12.8 yards, similar to Larry Fitzgerald or Brandon Marshall. Boldin was also used to attack all field levels and had a diversified route-running skill set. Boldin was slower than Coleman.

Boldin was good from the get go. Coleman is more a work in progress. But I don't think he is necessarily limited or incapable of significant improvement/development. Actually I tend to think he can. Like you I say he needs to do what Boldin did - win with ball skills, toughness, length, physicality, smarts, yac etc...

 

WRs with the profile of Coleman and Boldin almost never succeed in the NFL. But on the rare occasions that they do, they are among the best in the league. Boldin was such a player IMO. Personally, I always loved watching him play and think he should have already been elected to the Football HoF. I hope he makes it this year. 

 

As for comparisons, Boldin has some abilities that we haven’t seen from Coleman yet. Boldin’s hands were phenomenal, even in contested catch situations. We’ve seen glimpses from Coleman, but overall there hasn’t been much to get excited about. He certainly doesn’t attack the ball like Boldin did.

 

It’s early, but toughness is another area when they don’t compare. Boldin was legendary for his toughness. If you think that’s hyperbole, here’s an example:

 

September 2008, during a Week 4 game against the Jets. After hauling in a pass between defenders, Boldin took a helmet-to-helmet shot from safety Eric Smith that left him with a fractured sinus membrane and required surgery and seven plates and 40 screws in his head. Boldin missed the Cardinals’ next two games; in his first three back, he scored five touchdowns. LINK

 

That’s a short article worth reading. Now compare that to what happened with Coleman last season. 

 

Boldin is a Gold Standard for WRs with that profile. It would be amazing to see Coleman get anywhere near that ballpark, but he has a very, very long way to go. 

 

For those who look at his RAS and wonder why he isn’t more dominant, remember RAS only uses supplied data to calculate the score. If a player doesn’t do a drill, it doesn’t get counted in any way. So you can all probably guess how many players do a drill they won’t score well at. Coleman skipped a bunch of them. 

 

Where he did score well is with size and explosion. That’s not nothing. Beane & Co were looking for a WR that could run short routes and break tackles for YAC. He can do that. They also wanted that player to be able to win downfield with at least some contested catch ability. Not great returns there yet, but I’m sure that was the thinking. Many of us saw him as a Big Slot WR (Boldin played almost exclusively on the outside, with only 16% of snaps from the slot) and he’s proven that to be correct, so far at least. The book isn’t written on the kid, but he has a very long way to go. And slot on the Bills is already crowded.