Arm punts?

[Billy Claude]

There's been a lot of talk about how many of Josh Allen's interceptions are just as good as punts.  I was curious as to how true this is so I looked at the data for the last two seasons.  To summarize, the idea of a "arm punt" is greatly exaggerated, 3 out of 32 interceptions met my criteria as an arm punt.  Details are given below:

 

I counted an arm punt as (1) at least 3rd down  (2) outside field goal range (outside opponent's 40 yard line) (3) intercepted at least 35 yards past the line of scrimmage (4) at least 5 yards to go.  This last criteria is because I find it hard to believe that if you need less than 5 yards to get a first down, the best option is to throw it 40 yards downfield.  

 

For the 2023 season with 18 interceptions, 6 were on 1st down, 4 were on 2nd down, 7 on 3rd down, and 1 on 4th down.  Out of these last 7, only 2 on the interceptions meet the criteria:

 

Game 1 vs Jets 3rd and 8 from the Bills 31, intercepted 60 yards down field

Game 3 vs. Commanders 3rd and 20 from Bills 40, intercepted 41 yards down field (not in original post -- added later when pointed out it was missed).

Game 5 vs Jaguars 3rd and 15 from the Bills 41, intercepted 52 yards down field.

 

All the other 3rd down interceptions went less than 16 yards pass the line of scrimmage (2 were with the line of scrimmage in field goal range). The 4th down pass was from the Dolphin 35 and was a 4th and 2.

 

For the 2022 season with 14 interceptions, 3 were on 1st down, 6 were on 2nd down, 4 were on 3rd down and 1 was on 4th down.  None of the 3rd and 4th down interceptions went further than 20 yards pass the line of scrimmage and 2 of the 3rd down interceptions.

 

Of course, there are other reasons why an interception is justifiable, for example, 1 of the 2023 interceptions was a hail mary and you can argue you have to force it on 4th down but I don't feel the arm punt excuse is valid.

 

 

Edited May 25 by Billy Claude
Edit because I left out one "arm punt"

[FireChans]

Just now, Billy Claude said:

There's been a lot of talk about how many of Josh Allen's interceptions are just as good as punts.  I was curious as to how true this is so I looked at the data for the last two seasons.  To summarize, the idea of a "arm punt" is greatly exaggerated, only 2 out of 32 interceptions met my criteria as an arm punt.  Details are given below:

 

I counted an arm punt as (1) at least 3rd down  (2) outside field goal range (outside opponent's 40 yard line) (3) intercepted at least 35 yards past the line of scrimmage (4) at least 5 yards to go.  This last criteria is because I find it hard to believe that if you need less than 5 yards to get a first down, the best option is to throw it 40 yards downfield.  

 

For the 2023 season with 18 interceptions, 7 were on 1st down, 4 were on 2nd down, 6 on 3rd down, and 1 on 4th down.  Out of these last 7, only 2 on the interceptions meet the criteria:

 

Game 1 vs Jets 3rd and 8 from the Bills 31, intercepted 60 yards down field

Game 5 vs Jaguars 3rd and 15 from the Bills 41, intercepted 52 yards down field.

 

All the other 3rd down interceptions went less than 16 yards pass the line of scrimmage (2 were with the line of scrimmage in field goal range). The 4th down pass was from the Dolphin 35 and was a 4th and 2.

 

For the 2022 season with 14 interceptions, 3 were on 1st down, 6 were on 2nd down, 4 were on 3rd down and 1 was on 4th down.  None of the 3rd and 4th down interceptions went further than 20 yards pass the line of scrimmage and 2 of the 3rd down interceptions.

 

Of course, there are other reasons why an interception is justifiable, for example, 1 of the 2023 interceptions was a hail mary and you can argue you have to force it on 4th down but I don't feel the arm punt excuse is valid.

 

 

We all know Josh turns it over quite a bit. 
 

The arm punt excuse was always silly. You could always go for it on 4th and inches, or get a defensive penalty on the punt etc etc. 

 

Giving the ball away is never a good thing.

[MikePJ76]

So a long way of complaining about Josh Allen on this fine start to a holiday weekend?  That is my takeaway from this.

 

You should have arm punted this idea.

[Mr. WEO]

lol, arm punt god

Edited May 25 by Mr. WEO

[ToGoGo]

There were a couple INTs like this but it’s a strawman to say that this is what people were blaming it on. 
 

Believe it or not the best thread on Allen’s INTs was posted by Einstein late in the season. 
 

INTs will go down this year because Allen will have 0 targets towards Gabe Davis this year. 

[Billy Claude]

9 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

So a long way of complaining about Josh Allen on this fine start to a holiday weekend?  That is my takeaway from this.

 

You should have arm punted this idea.

 

Just tired of seeing this idea being repeated over and over again as if it was fact and it is storming outside here.

 

Edited May 25 by Billy Claude

[Shortchaz]

Sometimes you just got to chunk it up there 

[Fleezoid]

So your saying that all 3rd and 5, or more, outside the opponents 40 yard line, should be a pass play of at least 35 yards. 

 

I'm down with it!

 

[MJS]

Who is making that excuse all the time? I do not see that. I can remember one or two instances in a game where people said this, but that's all.

[MikePJ76]

5 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

Just tired of seeing this idea being repeated over and over again as if it was fact and it is storming outside here.

 

I am exhausted with this topic but essentially interceptions happen.  

 

The more important thing to look at with interceptions is when they happen.  

 

The buffalo bills are pretty good at quarterback.  I wish fans who are looking for something to complain about would put that energy where to me it appears it belongs, the defensive line.  It looks like a very average group that is going to struggle this year.  The von miller contract was and is a total disaster.  Hopefully next year when miller is off the books they can find a real dominant pass rusher from free agency or the draft.  

[Shortchaz]

2 minutes ago, Fleezoid said:

So your saying that all 3rd and 5, or more, outside the opponents 40 yard line, should be a pass play of at least 35 yards. 

 

I'm down with it!

 

Anything JUST outside of field goal range MUST be fired into the end zone while never going more than 14 feet off the ground. 

[Billy Claude]

3 minutes ago, MJS said:

Who is making that excuse all the time? I do not see that. I can remember one or two instances in a game where people said this, but that's all.

 

 

This always come up whenever there is a discussion of turnovers.  Bascially -- it doesn't matter because many of them are as good as punts.

 

[NickelCity]

46 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

There were a couple INTs like this but it’s a strawman to say that this is what people were blaming it on. 
 

Believe it or not the best thread on Allen’s INTs was posted by Einstein late in the season. 
 

INTs will go down this year because Allen will have 0 targets towards Gabe Davis this year. 

 

I tend to agree (and agreed strongly before our signings and drafting). I'm a bit worried about our attempt to go with jump ball guys, but we still have Shakir Samuel and Kincaid as separators I guess. 

 

Gabe is definitely addition by subtraction.

Edited May 25 by NickelCity

[MJS]

19 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

This always come up whenever there is a discussion of turnovers.  Bascially -- it doesn't matter because many of them are as good as punts.

Who? When? I am on this board a lot. I do not see that argument. I've see it said a couple of times during specific games and that is about all.

 

I admit that I don't see every single post. But even if it is brought up occasionally by a poster or two here or there, that doesn't mean it is an opinion that the majority of fans share. I don't think hardly anyone thinks that way.

Edited May 25 by MJS

[Gugny]

I’m perfectly fine with the arm punt when it makes sense. 

[PrimeTime101]

52 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

There's been a lot of talk about how many of Josh Allen's interceptions are just as good as punts.  I was curious as to how true this is so I looked at the data for the last two seasons.  To summarize, the idea of a "arm punt" is greatly exaggerated, only 2 out of 32 interceptions met my criteria as an arm punt.  Details are given below:

 

I counted an arm punt as (1) at least 3rd down  (2) outside field goal range (outside opponent's 40 yard line) (3) intercepted at least 35 yards past the line of scrimmage (4) at least 5 yards to go.  This last criteria is because I find it hard to believe that if you need less than 5 yards to get a first down, the best option is to throw it 40 yards downfield.  

 

For the 2023 season with 18 interceptions, 7 were on 1st down, 4 were on 2nd down, 6 on 3rd down, and 1 on 4th down.  Out of these last 7, only 2 on the interceptions meet the criteria:

 

Game 1 vs Jets 3rd and 8 from the Bills 31, intercepted 60 yards down field

Game 5 vs Jaguars 3rd and 15 from the Bills 41, intercepted 52 yards down field.

 

All the other 3rd down interceptions went less than 16 yards pass the line of scrimmage (2 were with the line of scrimmage in field goal range). The 4th down pass was from the Dolphin 35 and was a 4th and 2.

 

For the 2022 season with 14 interceptions, 3 were on 1st down, 6 were on 2nd down, 4 were on 3rd down and 1 was on 4th down.  None of the 3rd and 4th down interceptions went further than 20 yards pass the line of scrimmage and 2 of the 3rd down interceptions.

 

Of course, there are other reasons why an interception is justifiable, for example, 1 of the 2023 interceptions was a hail mary and you can argue you have to force it on 4th down but I don't feel the arm punt excuse is valid.

 

 

There is not nearly enough data here and I will give some examples.. 

 

Third and 10 at the 30 with a huge lead.. Risk/reward

4th down at the 20 yard line with like 15 yards needed... again way ahead.

games 0-0 late in the second. Third down.. long.. Take a shot. 

 

There are plenty of scenarios where it didn't matter if he threw an INT.. 

 

All this being said... does he throw too many sloppy throws? Yes... he does.. no doubt..  But when you have a QB named Josh Allen.. Your team also takes risks... maybe some unnecessary.

 

In short.. we do not know what is on the mind of the HC/OC/QB on any given play. 

[Rocky Landing]

Our very own Nathan "Late Nate" Peterman was one of the real innovators of the arm punt, or "mini punt," as J.T. O'Sullivan describes it.

 

[rajinka]

Just getting rid of Gabe should eliminate 5 miscommunication ints 

[Neo]

LOL, “the arm punt excuse” analysis and discussion.   Why not just pin a “daily nit pick about the greatest player we’ve had in generations” where the small can take shots at the large?

[Chaos]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

We all know Josh turns it over quite a bit. 
 

The arm punt excuse was always silly. You could always go for it on 4th and inches, or get a defensive penalty on the punt etc etc. 

 

Giving the ball away is never a good thing.

Punting is giving the ball away.