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Oof - the penalty for being good, but not good enough


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We can debate the merits of trading up for a top guy, but I prefer to either go up for a top 3 guy or go down.

 

That said, what are the odds that this trend is broken because of the apparent depth in this receiver class?

 

But it’s one hell of a trend…

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1 minute ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Man, that Benjamin fella seems like he could be elite. Big dude. I wonder what he's up to these days 

 

 

 

My guess is about 325. 

Exactly, I don't trust this FO to adequately scout WR. Better to take a proven commodity than trade up.

 

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11 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Trade down, Beane, if you know what you're doing

 

Aiyuk was a second team all pro last season. The pro bowl is meaningless in comparison. Also, DJ Moore is phenomenal. Pro bowl appearances are about the stupidest measuring stick of all.

Edited by dave mcbride
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Just now, dave mcbride said:

Aiyuk was a second team all pro last season. The pro bowl is meaningless in comparison.

 

Whiiiich is why I'd rather trade the first for him than trade up! :lol:

 

My preference in order:

  1. Trade Down
  2. Trade First for a proven WR (Aiyuk, Higgins, someone)
  3. Stay put and draft BPA

In no circumstance to I trust Beane's ability to pick the right guy after trading the farm to move up, and I just don't think a guy like Thomas is worth it.

 

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8 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Man, that Benjamin fella seems like he could be elite. Big dude. I wonder what he's up to these days 

 

 

 

My guess is about 325. 

Stay away from him he steals stuff at buffets

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6 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Whiiiich is why I'd rather trade the first for him than trade up! :lol:

 

My preference in order:

  1. Trade Down
  2. Trade First for a proven WR (Aiyuk, Higgins, someone)
  3. Stay put and draft BPA

In no circumstance to I trust Beane's ability to pick the right guy after trading the farm to move up, and I just don't think a guy like Thomas is worth it.

 

I hear you. That said, I think Odunze is amazing and everything the Bills need in a WR. I see the next Davante Adams in him. He’s also a non-moron.

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2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I hear you. That said, I think Odunze is amazing and everything the Bills need in a WR. I see the next Davante Adams in him. He’s also a non-moron.

Yes non-morons are hard to find 😂

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I'd agree that if you don't get one of the top 3 in this draft that there will be more hits in the back of the draft than there will be with WR picks 4-6 so trade way up or trade back. Do not trade up to 20 for the 4th best guy because the 4th best guy might not be until round 3, who knows at that point

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1 minute ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

good being the operative word there

 

only one really GREAT one, and a couple pretty good.

 

Lamb, Jefferson, and Aiyuk are excellent.

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2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Also of note - in the year prior to this time range, 2013, De’andre Hopkins went at 27.

 

The 1st round has a bust rate of roughly 50%.  Most hits are in the top 10.  Which means it starts declining from there.

I would think with this WR data, the other positional groupings probably aren't much better in the mid to late first round.

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2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

The 1st round has a bust rate of roughly 50%.  Most hits are in the top 10.  Which means it starts declining from there.

I would think with this WR data, the other positional groupings probably aren't much better in the mid to late first round.

Tompsett had a correlating tweet showing success rates by position. WR was at the bottom.

 

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1 minute ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Among all WR in the given time frame. I know he had maybe 3-4 seasons around 1100 yards.

 

Well, since 2014, the year he was drafted....he is 10th in receptions. 10th in yards.  12th in TD's. 

 

He's had 6 - 1000 yard seasons.

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-receptions-since-2014-by-a-player

 

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The closer we get to the draft the more I want us to move up to 8 and grab Odunze. I don’t expect him to slip past Chicago. I know this mortgages our future, but Odunze has character, intelligence, and elite skills. He’d be perfect for Allen. If we can’t make that happen, I’d be okay to move out of the first round altogether and take 2 WR’s to buck the odds. 

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6 minutes ago, Maynard said:

The closer we get to the draft the more I want us to move up to 8 and grab Odunze. I don’t expect him to slip past Chicago. I know this mortgages our future, but Odunze has character, intelligence, and elite skills. He’d be perfect for Allen. If we can’t make that happen, I’d be okay to move out of the first round altogether and take 2 WR’s to buck the odds. 

Plus you get him for 4 years at a super cheap salary vs paying someone 25-30m per in free agency

Edited by KDIGGZ
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7 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Well, since 2014, the year he was drafted....he is 10th in receptions. 10th in yards.  12th in TD's. 

 

He's had 6 - 1000 yard seasons.

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-receptions-since-2014-by-a-player

 

 

I'll allow it then.

 

But here's the thing even if you add him to the list of successes, the hit rate is pretty low.

 

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6 minutes ago, Maynard said:

The closer we get to the draft the more I want us to move up to 8 and grab Odunze. I don’t expect him to slip past Chicago. I know this mortgages our future, but Odunze has character, intelligence, and elite skills. He’d be perfect for Allen. If we can’t make that happen, I’d be okay to move out of the first round altogether and take 2 WR’s to buck the odds. 

 

I love Odunze.  If we can't land him, I kinda hope we double up on McConkey and Worthy.  Adding them gives us 3 WR's who run 4.3 and below - 40's.  

McConkey can play the outside and Worthy was predominantly outside.

 

This speed stretches the defenses.  If Allen had the Dolphins speed and with Kincaid in the middle....erection.

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24 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

good being the operative word there

 

only one really GREAT one, and a couple pretty good.

 

 

There are two first team all pros - Lamb and Jefferson. But Aiyuk has been a second team all pro as has Calvin Ridley. Then you have Cooks and Moore who have been #1s at points of their careers - although probably lower end #1s. That is 6 good players. All of those at their best would be by far and away the best receiver on the Bills in 2024. 

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2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I love Odunze.  If we can't land him, I kinda hope we double up on McConkey and Worthy.  Adding them gives us 3 WR's who run 4.3 and below - 40's.  

McConkey can play the outside and Worthy was predominantly outside.

 

This speed stretches the defenses.  If Allen had the Dolphins speed and with Kincaid in the middle....erection.

 

I like that. Think that could happen after a trade-down?

 

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49 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

nah, man if he trades up, all we'll have left is 4th and later picks which, bleh.

 

I'd rather he trade our first for an Aiyuk or Jefferson than do THAT.

 

We DON'T have the $$$ for that. Aiyuk wants to get paid, likely in the $25M-$30M range, and Jefferson has already turned down a $30M per year offer. This team doesn't really have that many holes. CB depth, S depth, another LB, 3-Tech DT depth. A trade up for a TRUE alpha WR, one of the big 3, is not going to hurt us at all. 

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Just now, H2o said:

We DON'T have the $$$ for that. Aiyuk wants to get paid, likely in the $25M-$30M range, and Jefferson has already turned down a $30M per year offer. This team doesn't really have that many holes. CB depth, S depth, another LB, 3-Tech DT depth. A trade up for a TRUE alpha WR, one of the big 3, is not going to hurt us at all. 

trade down or stay put/bpa it is then

 

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