Will we be in Super Bowl contention this year?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Name one player on offense or defense not named Josh Allen that any OC or DC on opposing teams is concerned about.

 

This roster is completely devoid of top tier talent. 

 

People need to wrap their head around the idea of 9 wins being close to this team's ceiling.

Edited April 21 by Pine Barrens Mafia

[Kirby Jackson]

7 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:

A gadget guy ? Seriously? Make a sound argument. Shakir and Kincaid will both catch 70-80. Samuel “ gadget guy” will get 60. And the WR via draft or trade will catch 50-60. JA is the QB who can throw the ball to any of 6-7 viable options with no diva bs. Addition by subtraction. Shakir is going to be outstanding this year. 

Not sure what ANYTHING that I said has to do with Diggs other than he accounted for 160 targets last year? That’s not an opinion. That’s what happened.

 

As an Ohio State fan, I’ve seen hundreds of Curtis Samuel’s snaps. I’ve probably seen as much of him as just about anyone on this message board (excluding @Willyville Guy & @YoloinOhio) . He is a converted running back. He’s a strong playmaker. He’s a guy that will get carries, catch screens and run some routes. They added Samuel because he’s better with the ball in his hands than the guys that had or currently have. He’s a weapon. He’s not, and never has been, a boundary WR. He will line up there some but that’s not the player that they signed. He’s the guy that’s going to catch screen/slants and get carries. He will run some vertical routes as well. He could be quite impactful with the new kickoff rules. I love the guy as a player. If you think that he’s different than what I described it’s because one of us doesn’t know him very well. 
 

You just named 3 guys that are best within 10 yards of the LOS. That’s the reason that WR is such a high priority!! They are WAY too easy to defend at the moment because they’re missing 1/2 of the route tree and multiple skill sets. 

I have the Bills needing 620 targets this year. I’ve tweaked this a few times since Diggs left. Here’s how I have it breaking down:

 

WR1 - 130

wr2 (2nd guy drafted) - 80

kincaid - 110

Shakir - 90

Samuel - 75 (another 55 carries)

Cook - 50

Knox - 40

Hollins - 30

everyone else - 15

 

This varies a little depending on the names up top. If the top guy is one of the top 3 or McConkey I feel this is about right. If it’s anyone else it goes down a little with the majority of those targets shifting to the 2nd WR drafted and also Cook (WR2 holds especially true if that’s someone like Pearsall).

 

You were pretty fired up with my thoughts on the WR position. Clearly you don’t think that it’s that big of a need. How do you see the targets being divided? Please be specific. 
 

 

7 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:

Bottom 3 WR room in the NFL ? Based on you saying it ???

List all of the ones that you have worse? Even if you have the Chargers and/or Giants they each may have a new number 1, WAY better than anyone on the Bills roster, by about 9:00 Thursday. The Bills are a bottom 3 WR room. 

Edited April 21 by Kirby Jackson

[SoTier]

8 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Don’t be shocked if Defense is what we’re talking about Thursday night.  

 

I certainly hope not.   With the quality and quantity of WR prospects in this draft and the Bills need for a speedy outside WR, it ought to be a no-brainer to pick the low hanging fruit rather than reaching for a lesser prospect on defense. 

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

As an Ohio State fan, I’ve seen thousands of Curtis Samuel’s snaps. I’ve probably seen as much of him as just about anyone on this message board (excluding @Willyville Guy & @YoloinOhio). . He is a converted running back. He’s a strong playmaker. He’s a guy that will get carries, catch screens and run some routes. They added Samuel because he’s better with the ball in his hands than the guys that had or currently have. He’s a weapon. He’s not, and never has been, a boundary WR. He will line up there some but that’s not the player that they signed. He’s the guy that’s going to catch screen/slants and get carries. He will run some vertical routes as well. He could be quite impactful with the new kickoff rules. I love the guy as a player. If you think that he’s different than what I described it’s because one of us doesn’t know him very well. 
 

 

 

You are of course 100% spot on about Samuel. Good player. Can be dynamic, can make plays. Not the guy you want to be relying on to be a starting outside receiver for you. 

 

On your following point about guys who do their best work within 10 yards from the line of scrimmage it is why I am much less excited than you on the idea of McConkey and Pearsall (either in the 2nd after you've drafted a vertical receiver - fine) because I think you are getting the same skillset again. Excluding the top 3 here are the average depth per target (in yards) of the guys that have been talked about for us at #28:

 

Worthy - 10.3

Pearsall - 11.0

McConkey - 12.2

Franklin - 12.8

Legette - 13.8

Thomas - 13.9

Mitchell - 16.0

 

I know some of that is a product of circumstance, the type of college offense they were in and usage. Maybe one of the lower depth per target guys is and can be used totally differently in the pros. It is possible. But it is projection. 

 

I am at the point I think where #28 (or a small trade up) for me is one of those three highest depth per target guys. They are the ones who have proven they can be true vertical receivers. They are the ones capable of giving the Bills the dimension they are missing. Any of those others risk more of the same IMO. 

 

If it isn't Thomas, Legette, Mitchell then it is take a guy another premium position or trade back a few spots and take whichever of the others is left.

 

[Kirby Jackson]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You are of course 100% spot on about Samuel. Good player. Can be dynamic, can make plays. Not the guy you want to be relying on to be a starting outside receiver for you. 

 

On your following point about guys who do their best work within 10 yards from the line of scrimmage it is why I am much less excited than you on the idea of McConkey and Pearsall (either in the 2nd after you've drafted a vertical receiver - fine) because I think you are getting the same skillset again. Excluding the top 3 here are the average depth per target (in yards) of the guys that have been talked about for us at #28:

 

Worthy - 10.3

Pearsall - 11.0

McConkey - 12.2

Franklin - 12.8

Legette - 13.8

Thomas - 13.9

Mitchell - 16.0

 

I know some of that is a product of circumstance, the type of college offense they were in and usage. Maybe one of the lower depth per target guys is and can be used totally differently in the pros. It is possible. But it is projection. 

 

I am at the point I think where #28 (or a small trade up) for me is one of those three highest depth per target guys. They are the ones who have proven they can be true vertical receivers. They are the ones capable of giving the Bills the dimension they are missing. Any of those others risk more of the same IMO. 

 

If it isn't Thomas, Legette, Mitchell then it is take a guy another premium position or trade back a few spots and take whichever of the others is left.

 

I agree 100% on Pearsall and McConkey. I should have clarified that I only like them alongside of a big, physical X. I think that they can each give you a lot of the positives that Diggs did. They are good route runners that can eat targets while “X” grows into an alpha role. Legette for me at 28 but I’m all for trading up.

[SCBills]

If we make the playoffs, yes. 
 

Take the Bengals with all the bizarre elements surrounding that game out of the equation and playoff Josh Allen is the best QB in the NFL. 
 

We just need to find coaching and players (health) around him to match his energy. 
 

That doesn’t mean we need to be as talented as we’ve been, it simply means we need a little bit better luck and for our team to have guys who step up in the big spots instead of shrink.  
 

For as much as we loved the guys we’ve had.. they either didn’t step up or couldn’t stay healthy.   Let’s hope this new group of players can. 
 

 

Edited April 21 by SCBills

[Thurman#1]

On 4/20/2024 at 9:42 PM, bills6969 said:

I have concerns on the defensive side of the ball.  Specifically, with replacing Poyer/Hyde. Replacing their production/leadership will not be easy. Need some leaders to step up on D.

 

As long as we have JA17, a Super Bowl should always be the goal.  There are alot of shoes to fill going into this season.  I do like that we aren’t really coming up in conversation for Super Bowl contenders.  I think we get a bit overlooked this year, which I think will be good for this team.

 

 

We're very very likely to be competitive.

 

Very unlikely to be overlooked, I think.

 

There absolutely are concerns, though some of that will change with the draft and with further FA moves. My guess is they pick at least one safety in the draft above the sixth round.

 

We'll see.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Name one player on offense or defense not named Josh Allen that any OC or DC on opposing teams is concerned about.

 

This roster is completely devoid of top tier talent. 

 

People need to wrap their head around the idea of 9 wins being close to this team's ceiling.

 

 

Yeah, that's idiocy.

 

Concerned? Kincaid, Cook, Dawkins and Torrence, for four.

 

Is it possible they win nine or less? Sure. If Allen is injured. If he's healthy it's still possible but a ten to twenty percent chance would be roughly the likelihood.

Edited April 21 by Thurman#1

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, that's idiocy.

 

Concerned? Kincaid, Cook, Dawkins and Torrence, for four.

 

Is it possible they win nine or less? Sure. If Allen is injured. If he's healthy it's still possible but a ten percent chance would be roughly the likelihood.

None of those guys are keeping DCs awake at night, that's just homerism. Kincaid MIGHT after this season, but not now.

Edited April 21 by Pine Barrens Mafia

[Thurman#1]

1 minute ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

None of those guys are keeping DCs awake at night, that's just homerism. Kincaid MUGHT after this season, but not now.

 

 

Don't be moving the bar. You asked about "concerned." Yes, those four guys concern DCs, as do others.

 

Kincaid was a top ten producer at TE as a rookie who didn't get many targets early. Cook was 3rd in the league at yards from scrimmage, not including WRs. They worry people. A lot.

 

Does anyone but Allen keep DCs up at night? It's impossible to know because they're already pacing late at night thinking of Allen. Kincaid was a top ten producer as a rookie at TE.

 

We're a good-looking offense. The NFL knows it.

[Kirby Jackson]

29 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

None of those guys are keeping DCs awake at night, that's just homerism. Kincaid MIGHT after this season, but not now.

 

20 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Don't be moving the bar. You asked about "concerned." Yes, those four guys concern DCs, as do others.

 

Kincaid was a top ten producer at TE as a rookie who didn't get many targets early. Cook was 3rd in the league at yards from scrimmage, not including WRs. They worry people. A lot.

 

Does anyone but Allen keep DCs up at night? It's impossible to know because they're already pacing late at night thinking of Allen. Kincaid was a top ten producer as a rookie at TE.

 

We're a good-looking offense. The NFL knows it.

I agree with @Pine Barrens Mafia. The Bills have some guys that’ll make plays. Kincaid is the only one that might be elite for his position. Cook is very good but has a defined skill set that can be controlled if defending him is the focus. 
 

Josh Allen is the only guy that haunts DCs. He is THE single hardest player to defend in the NFL. Josh is so good that he makes everyone else better than they are. The Bills have relied on Josh elevating guys for too long. With the exception of Diggs, they gave Josh a bunch of guys and hoped that he would make them better. He did.
 

Now they need to get some other guys with elite skill sets that people need to account for to go alongside Josh. Giving Josh a bunch of mid round talents and mediocre vets and asking him to carry them hasn’t worked. He made them better but they couldn’t get over the hump. That’s why they let 4 of their top 5 WRs go. They weren’t good enough there. Give Josh talent that can help him. That’s where the Bills currently sit. 

Edited April 21 by Kirby Jackson

[Thurman#1]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

I agree with @Pine Barrens Mafia. The Bills have some guys that’ll make plays. Kincaid is the only one that might be elite for his position. Cook is very good but has a defined skill set that can be controlled if defending him is the focus. 
 

Josh Allen is the only guy that haunts DCs. He is THE single hardest player to defend in the NFL. Josh is so good that he makes everyone else better than they are. The Bills have relied on Josh elevating guys for too long. With the exception of Diggs, they gave Josh a bunch of guys and hoped that he would make them better. He did.
 

Now they need to get some other guys with elite skill sets that people need to account for to go alongside Josh. Giving Josh a bunch of mid round talents and mediocre vets and asking him to carry them hasn’t worked. That’s why they let 4 of their top 5 WRs go. They weren’t good enough there. Give Josh talent that can help him. That’s where the Bills currently sit. 

 

 

Again, he didn't ask about "elite for his position."

 

The question was this: "Name one player on offense or defense not named Josh Allen that any OC or DC on opposing teams is concerned about."

 

And the Bills have guys teams are concerned about on offense.

 

Wouldn't mind them getting some elite talent on offense. But great QBs can make offenses dangerous without a lot of marquee talent. In fact, that's the way the last two dynasties, including the Chiefs, have worked / are working. Kelce may have been elite, but is he still? He was still damn good last year, and that lateral last year was a thing of beauty, but would it be wildly surprising to see Kincaid outproduce Kelce this year? Next year?

 

Not that that means we should avoid elite talent, obviously, on offense or defense. And giving Josh talent that can help him would by definition include the defense too, as the Chiefs showed.

 

But it's harder to get elite talent in the late twenties when you're low on cap and trying to get back into good cap shape for the future. And more so when you need work at a lot of positions.

 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Again, he didn't ask about "elite for his position."

 

The question was this: "Name one player on offense or defense not named Josh Allen that any OC or DC on opposing teams is concerned about."

 

And the Bills have guys teams are concerned about on offense.

 

Wouldn't mind them getting some elite talent on offense. But great QBs can make offenses dangerous without a lot of marquee talent. In fact, that's the way the last two dynasties, including the Chiefs, have worked / are working. Kelce may have been elite, but is he still? He was still damn good last year, and that lateral last year was a thing of beauty, but would it be wildly surprising to see Kincaid outproduce Kelce this year? Next year?

 

Not that that means we should avoid elite talent, obviously, on offense or defense. And giving Josh talent that can help him would by definition include the defense too, as the Chiefs showed.

 

But it's harder to get elite talent in the late twenties when you're low on cap and trying to get back into good cap shape for the future. And more so when you need work at a lot of positions.

 

 

I think that they “concerned about” part is “concerned about compared to different teams.” Obviously, if you’re playing the Bills you gameplan for the guys that you’re playing against. You’d prepare for Samuel and Shakir. That just doesn’t scare you like if you were preparing for Tyreek Hill and Waddle. I think that’s the point. That’s how I read it and to that I 100% agree.

 

The desperate need for elite talent is why I have supported the big trade up. I don’t care about an extra guy in the 20’s and 30’s in 2025. The Bills are great at finding “good” football players. They haven’t been good at finding elite ones. They’ve allocated significantly more “prime” assets on defense than offense. Maybe that’s a part of the problem? Either way, they NEED to find elite playmakers besides for Josh. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I have the Bills needing 620 targets this year. I’ve tweaked this a few times since Diggs left. Here’s how I have it breaking down:

 

WR1 - 130

wr2 (2nd guy drafted) - 80

kincaid - 110

Shakir - 90

Samuel - 75 (another 55 carries)

Cook - 50

Knox - 40

Hollins - 30

everyone else - 15

 

This varies a little depending on the names up top. If the top guy is one of the top 3 or McConkey I feel this is about right. If it’s anyone else it goes down a little with the majority of those targets shifting to the 2nd WR drafted and also Cook (WR2 holds especially true if that’s someone like Pearsall).

 

You were pretty fired up with my thoughts on the WR position. Clearly you don’t think that it’s that big of a need. How do you see the targets being divided? Please be specific. 
 

 

List all of the ones that you have worse? Even if you have the Chargers and/or Giants they each may have a new number 1, WAY better than anyone on the Bills roster, by about 9:00 Thursday. The Bills are a bottom 3 WR room. 

 

 

Your projections are off a bit based on historical data. You project 620 targets but Allen only had 579 last year in a full 17 games. In his two most recent 16 game seasons in 2020 and 2022 he had an average that would have put him right around 600 for 17 games. His career high was 646 in 17 games played in 2021. I expect the Bills to have a continued focus on the running game so i lean more towards a repeat of the 580 attempts from last season. So I say you are anywhere from 20-40 attempts over expectation for 2024. 

 

Samuel the last five seasons has 105, 97, 92 and 91 targets in four of the last five seasons. The other season he only played 5 games. His rushing attempts in that span per year are 19, 4, 41, 38, 7. Your projections are 75 targets and 55 rushing attempts for Samuel. I can see the 75 targets, but he is capable of another 10-30 targets  based on past performance. The 55 rushing attempts seems highly unlikely. 

 

For Kincaid I think we hope he hits 120 targets. 110 should be his floor. The top TE's in the game are all getting 120 -130 targets per season. 

[Dillenger4]

On 4/20/2024 at 9:38 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

I find this baffling. Help me understand. The Bills have plugged in a variety of guys over the McDermott era and have been more or less the same. They’ve played extended periods without Poyer, Milano, Tre, Von, Hyde, etc… The scheme has had them more or less the same defense regardless of who is out there. They play a conservative zone where they try to avoid big plays and keep the game close. Why do we think, with most of the same guys (minus Poyer, Floyd & Hyde plus Milano) that they will be significantly different? Sean McDermott’s defenses are always about the same. Explain why I should be scared? If the answer is “pass rush” they may need to generate more with the blitz but outside of Floyd (who disappeared late in the year) what’s changed? 
 

The offense has to replace their number 1 and number 2 WRs from last year (not to mention their 4th & 5th). Those 2 guys account for like 250 targets. They added a special teamer and a gadget guy. Why are we comfortable that it’ll work with no boundary WRs on the roster except Shorter and Hollins? The Bills still need 200ish targets from guys not on the roster. It’ll be so easy to defend them right now with no outside threats. There is a Grand Canyon-sized chasm between the need for offense vs. the need for defense right now.

Help me understand how you’re comfortable with the offense but not the defense?

Because we can't stop a legit offense for the past 5 seasons. Is that good enough for you?

Fix the D in this draft and we might have a shot.

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

 

Your projections are off a bit based on historical data. You project 620 targets but Allen only had 579 last year in a full 17 games. In his two most recent 16 game seasons in 2020 and 2022 he had an average that would have put him right around 600 for 17 games. His career high was 646 in 17 games played in 2021. I expect the Bills to have a continued focus on the running game so i lean more towards a repeat of the 580 attempts from last season. So I say you are anywhere from 20-40 attempts over expectation for 2024. 

 

Samuel the last five seasons has 105, 97, 92 and 91 targets in four of the last five seasons. The other season he only played 5 games. His rushing attempts in that span per year are 19, 4, 41, 38, 7. Your projections are 75 targets and 55 rushing attempts for Samuel. I can see the 75 targets, but he is capable of another 10-30 targets  based on past performance. The 55 rushing attempts seems highly unlikely. 

 

For Kincaid I think we hope he hits 120 targets. 110 should be his floor. The top TE's in the game are all getting 120 -130 targets per season. 

For Samuel I see the Bills using him more like Deebo and less like a traditional WR. That’s why they haven’t cared so much about adding another back. They’re planning on him 3 or 4 carries a game (that’s over 55). He will be used to catch those screens that Diggs struggled so much with. He isn’t a boundary WR. 
 

I also think you’re low on the passing attempts. Last year at 579 is the outlier imo. The previous 3 years (when looking at 17 games) would have been: 608, 646 (the best Bills team in a generation) and 602. If the Bills plan on a possession passing game (which their current talent CLEARLY forces) the number will be higher. It’ll be screens, curls, etc… unless/until they get some boundary WRs to run the routes deeper down the field. 

Just now, Dillenger4 said:

Because we can't stop a legit offense for the past 5 seasons. Is that good enough for you?

Fix the D in this draft and we might have a shot.

Nope, not nearly good enough.

 

The Bills have allocated the overwhelming majority of their assets to defense. They’ve been as good with guys out is with guys in. It’s the SCHEME that fails (or succeeds in the regular season). It isn’t the talent. The Bills avoid giving up big plays. It’s great during the regular season but Mahomes will take what you give him (as will Burrow). You need a philosophical change to stop those teams in the playoffs.

 

Allen has CARRIED that offense because the guys around him (Diggs excluded) have been mid round picks and average vets. Kincaid was a start but they are nowhere close to done. You’ll win BECAUSE of Josh Allen not BECAUSE of rotational defensive linemen. Give him elite playmakers and watch his game reach new heights.
 

When you have Steph Curry, you surround him with Klay Thompson to make your strength stronger. You don’t say, “let's get some low post guys to offset our 3 point shooting.” You say, “let’s be the best 3 point shooting team ever and make teams keep up with us.” That’s a championship strategy…

[Dillenger4]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

For Samuel I see the Bills using him more like Deebo and less like a traditional WR. That’s why they haven’t cared so much about adding another back. They’re planning on him 3 or 4 carries a game (that’s over 55). He will be used to catch those screens that Diggs struggled so much with. He isn’t a boundary WR. 
 

I also think you’re low on the passing attempts. Last year at 579 is the outlier imo. The previous 3 years (when looking at 17 games) would have been: 608, 646 (the best Bills team in a generation) and 602. If the Bills plan on a possession passing game (which their current talent CLEARLY forces) the number will be higher. It’ll be screens, curls, etc… unless/until they get some boundary WRs to run the routes deeper down the field. 

Oh great - so Josh can over/underthrow them? That is so NOT what the Bills do. It's not what Josh is good at. He doesn't have a touch pass in him which you need for the long ball. Tua does. Texans QB does. Josh does not. We are not a long ball team. Brady is a pound and short-pass scheme OC.

7 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

For Samuel I see the Bills using him more like Deebo and less like a traditional WR. That’s why they haven’t cared so much about adding another back. They’re planning on him 3 or 4 carries a game (that’s over 55). He will be used to catch those screens that Diggs struggled so much with. He isn’t a boundary WR. 
 

I also think you’re low on the passing attempts. Last year at 579 is the outlier imo. The previous 3 years (when looking at 17 games) would have been: 608, 646 (the best Bills team in a generation) and 602. If the Bills plan on a possession passing game (which their current talent CLEARLY forces) the number will be higher. It’ll be screens, curls, etc… unless/until they get some boundary WRs to run the routes deeper down the field. 

Nope, not nearly good enough.

 

The Bills have allocated the overwhelming majority of their assets to defense. They’ve been as good with guys out is with guys in. It’s the SCHEME that fails (or succeeds in the regular season). It isn’t the talent. The Bills avoid giving up big plays. It’s great during the regular season but Mahomes will take what you give him (as will Burrow). You need a philosophical change to stop those teams in the playoffs.

 

Allen has CARRIED that offense because the guys around him (Diggs excluded) have been mid round picks and average vets. Kincaid was a start but they are nowhere close to done. You’ll win BECAUSE of Josh Allen not BECAUSE of rotational defensive linemen. Give him elite playmakers and watch his game reach new heights.
 

When you have Steph Curry, you surround him with Klay Thompson to make your strength stronger. You don’t say, “let's get some low post guys to offset our 3 point shooting.” You say, “let’s be the best 3 point shooting team ever and make teams keep up with us.” That’s a championship strategy…

please stop copy/paste your drivel.

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

Oh great - so Josh can over/underthrow them? That is so NOT what the Bills do. It's not what Josh is good at. He doesn't have a touch pass in him which you need for the long ball. Tua does. Texans QB does. Josh does not. We are not a long ball team. Brady is a pound and short-pass scheme OC.

please stop copy/paste your drivel.

Who is talking about a “long ball?” They don’t have guys that run the 5-9 routes. That is missing. When you don’t have that, you are too easy to defend…
 

I’m not sure that you are following the conversation. I’ll talk slower. The Bills current playmakers, all do their best work within 10 yards of the LOS. Some of them are good once they get the ball in their hands but we will be looking at crowded boxes and not much space. We need the outs and corner routes as much or more than the fly (which we also need). 
 

If you disagree, please explain to me, your plan to avoid the safeties at the LOS? I’m curious to know how you’re finding space…

[Kirby Jackson]

You know what’s one of the most annoying things about this place? When people “object” to something but don’t offer a solution as to why they object.

 

We are going to disagree on here a lot. We will disagree on just about every subject. If you have strong feelings contrary to someone else’s strong feelings, give reasoning as to why you feel that way. It’s even better when supported by data. 
 

This should, in theory be a really good thread. There are lots of reasons that you could feel one way or another. But alas, “we have a lot of, I disagree” but little of, “I see it differently and here is why ____.” These conversations need significantly more nuance…

 

If you’re looking for an example of what good looks like, look at @Sammy Watkins' Rib last post. While I don’t agree 100% it is a point supported by data and a plan.

Edited April 21 by Kirby Jackson

[Rubes]

17 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

As of today, the Bills have a bottom 3 WR room in the NFL. We have an ascending TE (with a good TE behind him) and a top 15 RB with no one behind him. Josh Allen has covered a lot of flaws on this team. What happens when every single guy is best within 10 yards of the LOS? They have no one that threatens down the field. They have no one that runs those deep out routes. The whole game right now will be played within 1 yards of the LOS. The goal is to find space. Diggs and Davis created space for themselves but also for everyone else. That’s gone. 

 

Poyer and Hyde were still smart but largely done by last year. That’s why Hyde is yet to be signed (if he plays) and Poyer got $2M. The defense has choked in big moments in the playoffs for the same reason that it has been good in the regular season. They will give you those 7-10 yard plays and stop the big play. The elite offenses in the playoffs will just take that all day long. That’s why Travis Kelce kills the Bills. That’s a scheme issue, the reason it works depending on how you view it. That’s not changing because a few guys in their last few years aren’t here any longer. 
 

I guess my point is that defensive depth is so much less important right now than offensive explosion. The Bills need to add, at minimum, 2 boundary WRs capable of combining for 200 targets. Based on all of the mock drafts we have seen, they can’t wait until 60 for the 1st. That’s not possible. You might be looking at Roman Wilson or Ricky Pearsall (who I like a lot) as your number 1. You need to go up for one of the big 3 or try to get 2 before 60 (unless you trade for Aiyuk/Higgins). 

 

I won't argue that our receiver room is, right now, worse than it was last year. At the same time, I'll still argue that Diggs and Davis didn't provide a whole lot down the stretch, and we still did pretty good on offense. Sure, some of that is from defenses protecting against Diggs and Davis and allowing the others more freedom, but my opinion is that the magnitude of this is probably overblown. I'm excited to see what Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox, Cook, and any other new WRs will do with Allen and Brady behind them. Allen, after all, is the kind of generational player who can elevate those around him, and will always keep us in games.

 

We lack anything like that on defense. The three things that stand out for me with our defense going into next year are:

1. Once Floyd faded, we were unable to generate any kind of pass rush at all. Right now, that should be a pretty good view of what it will look like next year. Without Floyd, there's no reason to believe we are improved in that area, unless you're in the minority of people who believe in Miller's return to form. Pass rush is a huge question mark next year.
2. The loss of Poyer and (likely) Hyde means we lose the leadership and execution in the defensive backfield. Sure, they may have declined physically, but we're also losing their ability to recognize offenses, ensure the DBs are in the right call, and they all have the right assignments. Can our current starting safeties do that? Perhaps, but it's certainly reasonable to question whether they can do it as well as Poyer/Hyde and not lead to misalignments/missed assignments/blown coverages. The defensive backfield is another big question mark.
3. Linebacker health. Bernard was a revelation last year, but we also saw that we are very dependent on at least one being healthy. Can they both make it through (most of) a season? There's a track record there that concerns me, especially when we have to go up against teams like KC and Baltimore with strong offenses in order to be a true Super Bowl contender.

Again, the original question was about being a Super Bowl contender. I think once you get to the playoffs, it's our defensive struggles that have and will dictate how far we go. Josh can do everything in his power to will us to victory, but it's the defense keeping us from the big game. I don't see the defense getting any better next year and, if anything, they could be a notch worse—unless Miller returns to form and one or two of these new additions surprises us.

 

[Kirby Jackson]

10 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

I won't argue that our receiver room is, right now, worse than it was last year. At the same time, I'll still argue that Diggs and Davis didn't provide a whole lot down the stretch, and we still did pretty good on offense. Sure, some of that is from defenses protecting against Diggs and Davis and allowing the others more freedom, but my opinion is that the magnitude of this is probably overblown. I'm excited to see what Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox, Cook, and any other new WRs will do with Allen and Brady behind them. Allen, after all, is the kind of generational player who can elevate those around him, and will always keep us in games.

 

We lack anything like that on defense. The three things that stand out for me with our defense going into next year are:

1. Once Floyd faded, we were unable to generate any kind of pass rush at all. Right now, that should be a pretty good view of what it will look like next year. Without Floyd, there's no reason to believe we are improved in that area, unless you're in the minority of people who believe in Miller's return to form. Pass rush is a huge question mark next year.
2. The loss of Poyer and (likely) Hyde means we lose the leadership and execution in the defensive backfield. Sure, they may have declined physically, but we're also losing their ability to recognize offenses, ensure the DBs are in the right call, and they all have the right assignments. Can our current starting safeties do that? Perhaps, but it's certainly reasonable to question whether they can do it as well as Poyer/Hyde and not lead to misalignments/missed assignments/blown coverages. The defensive backfield is another big question mark.
3. Linebacker health. Bernard was a revelation last year, but we also saw that we are very dependent on at least one being healthy. Can they both make it through (most of) a season? There's a track record there that concerns me, especially when we have to go up against teams like KC and Baltimore with strong offenses in order to be a true Super Bowl contender.

Again, the original question was about being a Super Bowl contender. I think once you get to the playoffs, it's our defensive struggles that have and will dictate how far we go. Josh can do everything in his power to will us to victory, but it's the defense keeping us from the big game. I don't see the defense getting any better next year and, if anything, they could be a notch worse—unless Miller returns to form and one or two of these new additions surprises us.

 

All fair points Rubes!! Appreciate you sharing your logic 🍻

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

I agree that  With Allen,  we should always be in the conservation.. but that advantage isn’t such a big gap when having to go through Mahomes, Burrow, Lamar and a handful of upcoming Qb. 
 

We shouldn’t be minimizing Allen’s talents with only Receivers who are great from 10 yards are less. I think post playoffs last season one commentator made a comment about that not being the type of offense to run with Josh.. We need to push the boundary past that 10 yards and  I hope we find that. 

 

[QLBillsFan]

5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Not sure what ANYTHING that I said has to do with Diggs other than he accounted for 160 targets last year? That’s not an opinion. That’s what happened.

 

As an Ohio State fan, I’ve seen hundreds of Curtis Samuel’s snaps. I’ve probably seen as much of him as just about anyone on this message board (excluding @Willyville Guy & @YoloinOhio) . He is a converted running back. He’s a strong playmaker. He’s a guy that will get carries, catch screens and run some routes. They added Samuel because he’s better with the ball in his hands than the guys that had or currently have. He’s a weapon. He’s not, and never has been, a boundary WR. He will line up there some but that’s not the player that they signed. He’s the guy that’s going to catch screen/slants and get carries. He will run some vertical routes as well. He could be quite impactful with the new kickoff rules. I love the guy as a player. If you think that he’s different than what I described it’s because one of us doesn’t know him very well. 
 

You just named 3 guys that are best within 10 yards of the LOS. That’s the reason that WR is such a high priority!! They are WAY too easy to defend at the moment because they’re missing 1/2 of the route tree and multiple skill sets. 

I have the Bills needing 620 targets this year. I’ve tweaked this a few times since Diggs left. Here’s how I have it breaking down:

 

WR1 - 130

wr2 (2nd guy drafted) - 80

kincaid - 110

Shakir - 90

Samuel - 75 (another 55 carries)

Cook - 50

Knox - 40

Hollins - 30

everyone else - 15

 

This varies a little depending on the names up top. If the top guy is one of the top 3 or McConkey I feel this is about right. If it’s anyone else it goes down a little with the majority of those targets shifting to the 2nd WR drafted and also Cook (WR2 holds especially true if that’s someone like Pearsall).

 

You were pretty fired up with my thoughts on the WR position. Clearly you don’t think that it’s that big of a need. How do you see the targets being divided? Please be specific. 
 

 

List all of the ones that you have worse? Even if you have the Chargers and/or Giants they each may have a new number 1, WAY better than anyone on the Bills roster, by about 9:00 Thursday. The Bills are a bottom 3 WR room. 

I’m not particularly fired up at all. I in no way said the Bills don’t need another receiver. My point is they will either draft one fairly early or trade for one. In terms of catches assuming 390 this year vs 385 last year. Kincaid/Shakir 80, Samuel 60, rookie/fa 50, cook/knox 40, Hollins 20, TJ/Morris 10. That to me is not the 3rd worst WR room, but if you think so it’s fine. Diggs is gone and many of his targets were forced and put Josh in a difficult position. That is exactly how I see it you may differ. A “gadget guy”who catches 60 passes is fine with me. I’m glad you have in-depth knowledge of his capabilities. Obviously they are going to get a guy for the outside. Bolding is yelling so in fact you are fired up not me. Have a great day and let’s see what the Bills look like in the summer. 

[Kirby Jackson]

11 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

I’m not particularly fired up at all. I in no way said the Bills don’t need another receiver. My point is they will either draft one fairly early or trade for one. In terms of catches assuming 390 this year vs 385 last year. Kincaid/Shakir 80, Samuel 60, rookie/fa 50, cook/knox 40, Hollins 20, TJ/Morris 10. That to me is not the 3rd worst WR room, but if you think so it’s fine. Diggs is gone and many of his targets were forced and put Josh in a difficult position. That is exactly how I see it you may differ. A “gadget guy”who catches 60 passes is fine with me. I’m glad you have in-depth knowledge of his capabilities. Obviously they are going to get a guy for the outside. Bolding is yelling so in fact you are fired up not me. Have a great day and let’s see what the Bills look like in the summer. 

Which WR rooms are worse than the Bills? That does not include Kincaid or Cook. Which teams have worse WRs than the Bills?

[QLBillsFan]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Which WR rooms are worse than the Bills? That does not include Kincaid or Cook. Which teams have worse WRs than the Bills?

So I answered the targets/catches. The WR room is fine. You give zero credence to Diggs attitude impacting targets and what’s best for the team. With an outside WR on the roster post draft and end of FA this group will be fine. Let’s have the WR room chat at mid season. I am confident Shakir is going to breakout. Your favorite buckeye Samuel will gadget effectively and the outside WR will provide room that Davis/Diggs didn’t in the deep game. 

The TE/RB are an important component of the overall passing game would you agree? Kincaid and Cook will be even more integral to the passing game as they are eligible. Will Diggs be missed in some ways? Sure. But this group including yet to be added outside WR will be good. And allow the Brady/Allen O to feature the open guy-not just one guy. We can agree to disagree.

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

So I answered the targets/catches. The WR room is fine. You give zero credence to Diggs attitude impacting targets and what’s best for the team. With an outside WR on the roster post draft and end of FA this group will be fine. Let’s have the WR room chat at mid season. I am confident Shakir is going to breakout. Your favorite buckeye Samuel will gadget effectively and the outside WR will provide room that Davis/Diggs didn’t in the deep game. 

The TE/RB are an important component of the overall passing game would you agree? Kincaid and Cook will be even more integral to the passing game as they are eligible. Will Diggs be missed in some ways? Sure. But this group including yet to be added outside WR will be good. And allow the Brady/Allen O to feature the open guy-not just one guy. We can agree to disagree.

So I said bottom 3 WR room and it felt like you disagreed. If you are in agreement that they are a bottom 3 WR group, we are on the same page. Obviously that speaks to how big of a need it is.

[RyanC883]

On 4/20/2024 at 9:38 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

I find this baffling. Help me understand. The Bills have plugged in a variety of guys over the McDermott era and have been more or less the same. They’ve played extended periods without Poyer, Milano, Tre, Von, Hyde, etc… The scheme has had them more or less the same defense regardless of who is out there. They play a conservative zone where they try to avoid big plays and keep the game close. Why do we think, with most of the same guys (minus Poyer, Floyd & Hyde plus Milano) that they will be significantly different? Sean McDermott’s defenses are always about the same. Explain why I should be scared? If the answer is “pass rush” they may need to generate more with the blitz but outside of Floyd (who disappeared late in the year) what’s changed? 
 

The offense has to replace their number 1 and number 2 WRs from last year (not to mention their 4th & 5th). Those 2 guys account for like 250 targets. They added a special teamer and a gadget guy. Why are we comfortable that it’ll work with no boundary WRs on the roster except Shorter and Hollins? The Bills still need 200ish targets from guys not on the roster. It’ll be so easy to defend them right now with no outside threats. There is a Grand Canyon-sized chasm between the need for offense vs. the need for defense right now.

Help me understand how you’re comfortable with the offense but not the defense?

 

great points.  Having Milano and Bernard back is a huge positive that outweighs Poyer and Hyde departures.  Plus a rookie safety will likely be drafted who can fill in (I’m thinking a U Miami safety). 

[QLBillsFan]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

So I said bottom 3 WR room and it felt like you disagreed. If you are in agreement that they are a bottom 3 WR group, we are on the same page. Obviously that speaks to how big of a need it is.

I did not agree to that. I have said they need to add an outside WR. That’s your conclusion. I disagree based on the development of Shakir that you don’t see. I am not going to rank any WR room until rosters are set. That’s exactly what BB said. Again we can revisit in November and if the Bills a bottom 3 WR room I will agree with your assessment. Until then I will let it play out. 

[SoTier]

3 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

None of those guys are keeping DCs awake at night, that's just homerism. Kincaid MIGHT after this season, but not now.

 

I don't think that the Bills need to have a roster full of elite offensive players who "keep DCs awake at night".   If they give Allen a variety of good/excellent options in both the passing and running game, Allen will give every DC he faces nightmares.   If the Bills were going to go for "elite" players, they might do better to add elite OLers than elite skill players.   I'm not arguing for getting by with JAGs on offense but the reality is that a team that's paying a prime franchise QB has limited options for adding/keeping difference making players past their rookie contracts so a lot of their offensive players are going to be on a level of Kincaid and Cook.

 

I do think that the Bills absolutely need to find a couple of elite players on the defensive side, especially on the DL.   The Bills have had some bad luck with defensive injuries the last couple of seasons.   Miller, White, and Milano might have qualified as elite if not for injury.   Ed Oliver came into his own last season, and hopefully the Bills find a DE to take advantage of his good play inside to create more QB pressures.

 

 

Edited April 21 by SoTier

[QLBillsFan]

6 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Name one player on offense or defense not named Josh Allen that any OC or DC on opposing teams is concerned about.

 

This roster is completely devoid of top tier talent. 

 

People need to wrap their head around the idea of 9 wins being close to this team's ceiling.

Cook Shakir Kincaid 

[Thrivefourfive]

Don’t think so. The offense has a major hole to fill. Feeling like one step forward, two steps back right now. Hope that changes on draft day 1. The defense isn’t any better. The kicker STINKS. I’m not sure how we’re better next next than last, when we had a shot to beat KC.

[Kirby Jackson]

40 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

I did not agree to that. I have said they need to add an outside WR. That’s your conclusion. I disagree based on the development of Shakir that you don’t see. I am not going to rank any WR room until rosters are set. That’s exactly what BB said. Again we can revisit in November and if the Bills a bottom 3 WR room I will agree with your assessment. Until then I will let it play out. 

If you don’t agree, I’ll ask yet again, “who has worse WRs than the Bills AS OF RIGHT NOW?” It’s a simple question. 
 

Also, who said that I don’t agree that Shakir has developed? He was really good but with minimal attention and minimal targets. I loved what I saw. We will see how it translates with attention and volume. The point remains the only teams with as bad of a WR room as the Bills are the Pats, Giants and Chargers. 2 of those teams MIGHT add Harrison/Nabers/Odunze. 

Edited April 21 by Kirby Jackson

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

38 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

Cook Shakir Kincaid 

Homerism on cook and shakir, honestly. I think shakir can be good, but yes no #1. Kincaid MAY become that guy but it's not a certainty.

[QLBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If you don’t agree, I’ll ask yet again, “who has worse WRs than the Bills?” It’s a simple question. 

Please with the patronizing. As you whined early in this board. The Bills room has upside and you don’t agree. I don’t care man. Come back with your argument after the season is playing out. I know it’s shocking but they have a plan that you may not be aware of.
 

And talent that is being developed. They are ahead of NE, AZ, CAR, LAC, similar to several other either old or w limited depth Titans, WA. You’re brilliant yes they need an outside WR. Then they will have Shakir, Samuel, new WR putting them in middle of pack. Add in TE, RB they have 5 viable candidates to catch the ball from a top 5 QB. Who can throw without concern as to who gets the ball. Simple response. 

[Aussie Joe]

12 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'm not pessimistic - I'm realistic. If we had Roquan Smith, TJ Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and AJ Brown, I'd have us penciled in as favorites. Unfortunately we don't have a receiver that's ever hit 1k yards, don't have a pass rushers that's ever hit double digit sacks (besides the empty husk of Von miller), and we easily have the worst safety duo in the league right now.

History has been on my side every year for 3 straight. Let's re-check the tally at the end of this season and see how far blind optimism gets you.

You are pessimistic… they haven’t even been through the draft yet …

 

Also … what do you mean “the last three years ? You trying to say they weren’t a SB contender over that period ?

 

 

Edited April 21 by Aussie Joe

[QLBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Homerism on cook and shakir, honestly. I think shakir can be good, but yes no #1. Kincaid MAY become that guy but it's not a certainty.

Sure so Cook and Kincaid are not top 10 at respective positions?? Possible he Shakir wont  be but he was #1 in % of targets to catches with essentially a half season of snaps. Guys who are always open and catch the ball are a threat. But you could be right. The Bills don’t have a Dominant must contain pass receiver that is true. 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, QLBillsFan said:

Please with the patronizing. As you whined early in this board. The Bills room has upside and you don’t agree. I don’t care man. Come back with your argument after the season is playing out. I know it’s shocking but they have a plan that you may not be aware of.
 

And talent that is being developed. They are ahead of NE, AZ, CAR, LAC, similar to several other either old or w limited depth Titans, WA. You’re brilliant yes they need an outside WR. Then they will have Shakir, Samuel, new WR putting them in middle of pack. Add in TE, RB they have 5 viable candidates to catch the ball from a top 5 QB. Who can throw without concern as to who gets the ball. Simple response. 

When did I say that they don’t have “upside?” Please share that post. Otherwise, you’re making stuff up. They could be better than they have been but that is ALL speculation. 
 

Their floor is also REALLY low. What happens if Shakir can’t handle volume? What if Shorter never makes the team? What if Samuel is exactly the guy that I said? 
 

The Bills, today, have a bottom 3 WR room. I appreciate you listing some of the teams in their tier. I think, currently the Giants are slightly better and the Pats are with Bourne, Juju, Osborn and Douglas. Neither is good but both are better. These are also the teams adding MHJ/Nabers/Odunze who are all better than every single WR on all 4 of those teams. 

[JaCrispy]

No, I don’t feel we will be as good this year as in previous years…

 

But I don’t necessarily don’t think that’s a bad thing…We are in a mini rebuild, despite what the organization might say…And I feel this is a 2 year rebuild …👍

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

Sure so Cook and Kincaid are not top 10 at respective positions?? Possible he Shakir wont  be but he was #1 in % of targets to catches with essentially a half season of snaps. Guys who are always open and catch the ball are a threat. But you could be right. The Bills don’t have a Dominant must contain pass receiver that is true. 

Again I say Kincaid could become a guy that gives DCs fits, but he's gotta become more than an intermediate receiver and show some big play ability.

[QLBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Again I say Kincaid could become a guy that gives DCs fits, but he's gotta become more than an intermediate receiver and show some big play ability.

Yes and score TDs.. must improve on that to be a serious threat.