Draft sleepers/red flag fallers

[RyanC883]

7 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

The Bills aren’t going to take Burton unless they’ve had a major philosophy shift 

 

they won’t, but they should if he is around in the 3rd.  good risk/reward spot.  

[Beck Water]

9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I get that, but as you said, go watch him play actual football and I promise you that you won't come away with the thought he is a "slower player".  4.54 gets mis labeled as slow, but its not that slow and when you put pads on and getting open and beating man involves everything from agility, route running, strength, etc, you will see that a guy can get open with ease at all 3 phases of the field, even at less than elite speed.  

 

I encourage you and everyone to watch this...I mean he is separating all over the field and every throw is 40 yards down field.  This guy I am telling you all should not be over looked because his "underwear olympics" (as @Beck Watercoined it) 40 times was not as fast as some of the other prospects, but was fast enough.  This dude plays fast with aggression, power, and has elite ball skills and hands.  

 

 

 

Who the hell is his QB?

 

Just as I watched Mason Rudolph and James Washington jumped out at me - watching this film "who is that QB?" jumped out at me.  Penix, right?

 

Polk does make it look like he just pressed a big red "easy" button when it came to catching those bombs, though.

[Alphadawg7]

30 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Who the hell is his QB?

 

Just as I watched Mason Rudolph and James Washington jumped out at me - watching this film "who is that QB?" jumped out at me.  Penix, right?

 

Polk does make it look like he just pressed a big red "easy" button when it came to catching those bombs, though.

Yeah that’s Penix and yeah, Polk has the best ball skills outside his teammate Odunze in the draft.  

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

Polk is MY guy!!! Get a new guy!  😉 

Latu is the biggest question mark. He’s the best pass rusher in the class imo.  His injury history is scary.  A top 10 talent that could slip to the mid 20’s, maybe 30’s (according to some).  
 

Would LOVE to land Latu at 28 and then trade up for Polk (or another WR) in rd 2.

I would love that draft!  

Edited April 18 by Alphadawg7

[Estro]

Jalen McMillan, WR, Washington.

 

Greg Cosell mentioned a couple weeks back on "the Intel" podcast with Geoff Mosher and Adam Caplan that he heard from some people that's there's some really bad off the field stuff with McMillan.  Repeated a second time "and I mean some really bad stuff".

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Beck Water said:

watching this film "who is that QB?" jumped out at me.  Penix, right?

 

 

I've been trying to do the QBs properly this week it is literally the last group I've done this year and I am really close to bumping Penix up to a 1st round grade. Basically my first two entries in the cons column are "injury red flags" and "lefty".  Once you get past that.....

 

Seriously there are one or two other concerns but at the same time I think this kid can darn well play Quarterback. I'd have no problem taking him in round 1 if I was a QB needy GM. None whatsoever. 

[Coach Tuesday]

16 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Yes, I think he very much does.  Speed on the field comes from a lot of things, not just as you put it “underwear Olympics” forty times.  
 

For example, anyone who thinks Worthy is gonna play as fast as Tyreek Hill are puzzling to me.  Hill has elite speed in every capacity, not just straight line speed and is strong and physical despite his short height. 
 

I mean I would take Polk right now over Coleman for example who by almost all accounts is projected to go ahead of Polk.  Coleman does have some separation concerns and he isn’t as good on contested catches as Polk and doesn’t have the level of ball skills Polk has which I think is only second to Odunze in this draft, and a close second.  
 

Honestly I would take Polk over Worthy, Legette, Coleman and Pearsall, all guys projected to go ahead of him.  
 

Worthy to me lacks the strength and frame to be a true WR1, especially in Buffalo.  
 

Legette has maybe a higher ceiling, but also a much lower floor as he is not nearly as polished in many of the areas Polk is.  
 

Pearsall I think is better suited as a WR2, although I do think he had potential to be a great WR2.
 

And Coleman as I said has question marks about creating separation at the next level.  I’m worried he is Gabe Davis with better hands if he can’t separate in the NFL enough. 
 

If we don’t trade up, the top 5 wish list guys for me are currently:  Mitchell, McConkey, Franklin, Polk, Legette.  I  would take Mitchell at 28, but would probably try and trade back if I was going after one of the other guys.  
 

If we trade up, then obviously any of the big 4 are excellent options for us.  My guess would be that Thomas is the most obtainable or maybe Odunze.  
 

 

The Chiefs LOVE Polk and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he’s their first round pick.

[Warriorspikes51]

18 hours ago, nosejob said:

Maason Smith

 

He looks gigantic 

7 hours ago, Estro said:

Jalen McMillan, WR, Washington.

 

Greg Cosell mentioned a couple weeks back on "the Intel" podcast with Geoff Mosher and Adam Caplan that he heard from some people that's there's some really bad off the field stuff with McMillan.  Repeated a second time "and I mean some really bad stuff".

 

interesting.  Surprised we had him in for a private workout then 

[MiracleAtRich1393]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

The Chiefs LOVE Polk and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he’s their first round pick.

FML

7 hours ago, Estro said:

Jalen McMillan, WR, Washington.

 

Greg Cosell mentioned a couple weeks back on "the Intel" podcast with Geoff Mosher and Adam Caplan that he heard from some people that's there's some really bad off the field stuff with McMillan.  Repeated a second time "and I mean some really bad stuff".

Are you sure that wasn't about Burton? Not saying you're wrong just saying can't remember hearing anything like that about McMillan

Edited April 18 by MiracleAtRich1393

[DCOrange]

9 minutes ago, MiracleAtRich1393 said:

FML

Are you sure that wasn't about Burton? Not saying you're wrong just saying can't remember hearing anything like that about McMillan

There was nothing about character concerns in McMillan's bio in Dane Brugler's draft guide either and I feel like it would definitely be in there if that was out in the world. At any rate, I'm not a fan of his game anyways but that's interesting to hear.

[DCOrange]

8 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Who the hell is his QB?

 

Just as I watched Mason Rudolph and James Washington jumped out at me - watching this film "who is that QB?" jumped out at me.  Penix, right?

 

Polk does make it look like he just pressed a big red "easy" button when it came to catching those bombs, though.

Yeah, that's Penix. He definitely has some moments where he looks like an amazing passer, but for the most part, I think he's pretty mediocre. I know Ben Solak for example had him charted as the least precise of the perceived top 6 QBs in the draft. I think there's too many red flags there for my liking but he's a fine flier in the 3rd round if he makes it there. I think he's going to end up being my QB5 or QB6 depending on where I end up with Spencer Rattler.

[MrEpsYtown]

This Austin Booker guy's situation is weird so it's a bit of a red flag. He's at Minnesota for two years redshirts the first, barely plays the second, transfers to Kansas and puts up 8 sacks in 12 games. Now he's coming out as a redshirt sophomore. He only played like 500 snaps in his college career. He's a long, lean athletic edge player with a crazy motor. He is raw in some ways but his rush technique is pretty advanced. I have no idea where he is going to go in the draft but Lance Zeirlein's comp for him is Maxx Crosby. He also did a nice job at the Senior Bowl. I think he is a pretty unique situation with a lot of potential. 

 

 

He could fall or he could be overdrafted. 

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

The Chiefs LOVE Polk and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he’s their first round pick.

That would make me sad.  My favorite player in the draft + the speed of Hollywood.  They’d be a nice pairing with the felon

[NastyNateSoldiers]

21 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I know this guy isn't a true sleeper, but I think his value is being slept on too much, and that is Ja'lynn Polk, WR, Huskies.  He has superior ball skills and strong hands, and 100% fits that theme Beane and McD want of making the catch.  What he lacks in 40 time he more than makes up for with route precision, physicality, and ball skills.  With a draft this deep, its not a surprise some of these guys are getting almost lost in the shuffle in the draft buzz.  But if the Bills exited this draft with just Polk as the addition at WR, I would still be excited.  

 

Don't get me wrong, not at all saying he should be our target or who we should take at 28.  I am saying, hypothetically Bills go another position at 28 and then wait to pick 60 to draft a WR, if Polk was the guy I would still be very stoked about him.  I know the big knock is the 4.54 forty time...but that is faster than Keenan Allen, Larry Fitzgerald, Cooper Kupp, etc who all had over 4.6 to over 4.7 forty times.  What people fail to realize about 40 times too often is that straight line speed in shorts and does not automatically translate to on field speed of play.  

 

A guy slower in the 40 may play faster or be better at getting separation at the next level than someone who put up a faster time.  It is not the end all be all measurement its made out to be. 

 

So for me, Polk is not getting enough buzz, but I really think he is going to be a very good player in the NFL.  And in Buffalo, where bad weather often helps even the playing field speed wise in those late season and playoff games, having a guy with exceptional ball skills, who runs precise routes and is physical can be a major weapon.  

Polk gives me Robert Wood vibes 

[Warriorspikes51]

4 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Polk gives me Robert Wood vibes 

 

Polk is better and has a much stronger, bigger body type 

 

Jordan Schultz on X: “Interesting comp from a personnel director on Washington WR Ja'Lynn Polk: “He’s got so much Puka Nacua to his game. That’s who I see every time I watch him. The strong hands, body control and ability after the catch. … I don’t think Polk gets out of the 2nd-round.”

Edited April 18 by Warriorspikes51

[BillsPride12]

1 minute ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Polk is better and has a much stronger, bigger body type 

That would be a fantastic Round 2 pick 

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

The Chiefs LOVE Polk and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he’s their first round pick.

Yes, I’ve been hearing the same.  In my mock draft thread I have Balt taking him at 30 as they also like him and he fits their style of offense so well, especially being maybe the best blocker at WR in the draft to go along with having all he brings as a WR and being that big catch radius target for Lamar.  
 

I had Chiefs trade up for an OT as well, however if I didn’t mock the chiefs trading up and Polk was on the board at 32, I would have mocked Polk likely to the Chiefs there.  
 

I keep hearing his name is coming up behind the scenes amongst NFL personnel a lot and while he isn’t getting the media attention, teams behind the scenes are high on him.  
 

Not only do I think he won’t get out of the 2nd, I think he goes somewhere between end of first and first half of round 2.  
 

I can’t find any reports of Bills meeting with him though, so I don’t think he is currently in our sights though.  Bills have however met with Coleman several times though who is slower and personally I would take Polk over Coleman.  

[LEBills]

11 hours ago, Estro said:

Jalen McMillan, WR, Washington.

 

Greg Cosell mentioned a couple weeks back on "the Intel" podcast with Geoff Mosher and Adam Caplan that he heard from some people that's there's some really bad off the field stuff with McMillan.  Repeated a second time "and I mean some really bad stuff".

Good find. Starts about 35:25 into the podcast

 

[Estro]

1 hour ago, LEBills said:

Good find. Starts about 35:25 into the podcast

 

Thanks for posting the clip, I was just about to do so myself

[msw2112]

On 4/17/2024 at 10:42 AM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I know this guy isn't a true sleeper, but I think his value is being slept on too much, and that is Ja'lynn Polk, WR, Huskies.  He has superior ball skills and strong hands, and 100% fits that theme Beane and McD want of making the catch.  What he lacks in 40 time he more than makes up for with route precision, physicality, and ball skills.  With a draft this deep, its not a surprise some of these guys are getting almost lost in the shuffle in the draft buzz.  But if the Bills exited this draft with just Polk as the addition at WR, I would still be excited.  

 

Don't get me wrong, not at all saying he should be our target or who we should take at 28.  I am saying, hypothetically Bills go another position at 28 and then wait to pick 60 to draft a WR, if Polk was the guy I would still be very stoked about him.  I know the big knock is the 4.54 forty time...but that is faster than Keenan Allen, Larry Fitzgerald, Cooper Kupp, etc who all had over 4.6 to over 4.7 forty times.  What people fail to realize about 40 times too often is that straight line speed in shorts and does not automatically translate to on field speed of play.  

 

A guy slower in the 40 may play faster or be better at getting separation at the next level than someone who put up a faster time.  It is not the end all be all measurement its made out to be. 

 

So for me, Polk is not getting enough buzz, but I really think he is going to be a very good player in the NFL.  And in Buffalo, where bad weather often helps even the playing field speed wise in those late season and playoff games, having a guy with exceptional ball skills, who runs precise routes and is physical can be a major weapon.  

 

While not a WR, I always think of Terrell Suggs in this situation.  He ran a 4.84 at the combine and fell several spots in the draft.  He was considered a top-3 talent, but dropped to 10 because of the slow 40 time.  Suggs is currently 8th on the all-time sacks list and may soon find himself in a gold jacket.  There were a few other defensive linemen drafted ahead of Suggs, but none had nearly the career that he had.  The Ravens, always known as an astute drafting team, took the "gamble" on Suggs and picked him at 10.

Edited April 18 by msw2112

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

 

While not a WR, I always think of Terrell Suggs in this situation.  He ran a 4.84 at the combine and fell several spots in the draft.  He was considered a top-3 talent, but dropped to 10 because of the slow 40 time.  Suggs is currently 8th on the all-time sacks list and may soon find himself in a gold jacket.  There were a few other defensive linemen drafted ahead of Suggs, but none had nearly the career that he had.  The Ravens, always known as an astute drafting team, took the "gamble" on Suggs and picked him at 10.

 

Yeah, too much is made by fans and media over 40 times...and even fools some teams (like Al Davis notoriously would bite for 40 times over tape).  Larry Fitzgerald was considered a cant miss WR and one of the highest graded WR's to come out the last 30 years and his 40 time was 4.64.  He went on to live up to the hype and had a HOF career.  

 

Cooper Kupp is a 4.64 guy as well.  Keenan Allen fell because he ran a 4.71.  Speed is great, but its not the end all be all its made out to be.  Meanwhile guys like John Ross get over drafted because they ran fast in shorts in a straight line with no one defending them.  

 

Polk at 4.54 is plenty fast enough to excel as a WR in the NFL, and he plays fast on the field and has good stop and go and quick cut speed to go along with his precise route running.  But most importantly, his body control and ball skills is 2nd to only Odunze, and its a close 2nd.  So his ability to adjust to the ball, to make contested catches, and catch in traffic just adds to his value.  

 

Funny you mention Ravens, because in my mock draft thread on the board right now I have Ravens taking Polk at 30.  He gives them that big catch radius guy but also is probably the best blocking WR in the draft which really has value on a team like the Ravens.  His tape on blocking alone was very impressive on top of what he can do as a WR.  I also keep hearing Chiefs are very high on him and he could go to them at 32 as well if he doesn't go to Ravens.

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

This Austin Booker guy's situation is weird so it's a bit of a red flag. He's at Minnesota for two years redshirts the first, barely plays the second, transfers to Kansas and puts up 8 sacks in 12 games. Now he's coming out as a redshirt sophomore. He only played like 500 snaps in his college career. He's a long, lean athletic edge player with a crazy motor. He is raw in some ways but his rush technique is pretty advanced. I have no idea where he is going to go in the draft but Lance Zeirlein's comp for him is Maxx Crosby. He also did a nice job at the Senior Bowl. I think he is a pretty unique situation with a lot of potential. 

 

 

He could fall or he could be overdrafted. 

 

I took Austin in the first TSW mock with the Commanders, I really like him as a day 3 pick.  Unfortunately, I don't think the Bills will have a shot at him unless they make some moves as I think the upside is too strong and someone is going to take him in the 3rd.  If he gets to us in the 4th, I would love this pick.  He is a classic low floor but high ceiling pick, and I think he is worth the gamble.