interesting WR scenario posed by a friend

[BobbyC81]

17 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

lol…another 0% chance scenario.  Every thread you’re giving away the farm to get every WR with no consideration for substantial amount of holes on this team.  
 

There is absolutely no chance Beane is trading up TWICE in first 2 rounds for 2 WRs leaving us very little ammo to find the players we need in our secondary and DL as well.  Not to mention another RB and OL depth we are likely going to use some of the day 3 picks on.  And to do so in the deepest and richest WR draft in history is utterly insane.  

 

To get into the mid teens, it’s probably going to cost us our first next year as well without having to gut some of our draft capital this year that we need.  Everyone forgets the other team needs to want to move back to and be worth passing on the talent that will be there at OL, DL, CB, and even the WR for themselves.  

I agree with you on the not trading up twice.  Sure, they did it in 2018 to get Josh and Edmunds but they’re already without a 3rd.  I also don’t see our defensive-minded head coach going for WRs with the 1st 2 picks without having that 3rd.

 

IMO Curtis Samuel will overall be a better WR for this team.  His versatility will allow them to do more things with him.  Whether they move up for a B. Thomas or just stay put and get an A. Mitchell, they can wait until the 4th or beyond to grab a 2nd rookie.  They can also still pick up a decent veteran free agent like DJ Chark to fill out the WR room.

Edited April 9 by BobbyC81

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

I agree with you on the not trading up twice.  Sure, they did it in 2018 to get Josh and Edmunds but they’re already without a 3rd.  I also don’t see our defensive-minded head coach going for WRs with the 1st 2 picks without having that 3rd.

 

IMO Curtis Samuel will overall be a better WR for this team.  His versatility will allow them to do more things with him.  Whether they move up for a B. Thomas or just stay put and get an A. Mitchell, they can wait until the 4th or beyond to grab a 2nd rookie.  They can also still pick up a decent veteran free agent like DJ Chark to fill out the WR room.

Agree…And to be clear, I’m not saying we would never trade up twice.  I was just saying we aren’t trading up twice in first 2 rounds to take 2 WRs.  

[RyanC883]

On 4/8/2024 at 10:42 AM, Alphadawg7 said:

lol…another 0% chance scenario.  Every thread you’re giving away the farm to get every WR with no consideration for substantial amount of holes on this team.  
 

There is absolutely no chance Beane is trading up TWICE in first 2 rounds for 2 WRs leaving us very little ammo to find the players we need in our secondary and DL as well.  Not to mention another RB and OL depth we are likely going to use some of the day 3 picks on.  And to do so in the deepest and richest WR draft in history is utterly insane.  

 

To get into the mid teens, it’s probably going to cost us our first next year as well without having to gut some of our draft capital this year that we need.  Everyone forgets the other team needs to want to move back to and be worth passing on the talent that will be there at OL, DL, CB, and even the WR for themselves.  

 

you are likely correct.  The flip side, though, is that we get 2 great WRs this year, and have an offense and D that can compete this year, and use cap space on FA D next year--and we have been mildly better at FA DL than drafting it.   Along these lines, I'm in the Thomas/Leggette or Persall camp over costly trade FA WR and 2nd round pick.  My ideal situation is trade up for top 3 WR in the draft using next year 1st (which should be low) and draft another WR like Anias Smith or Cowing in Rd.  4.  Then fill in with S and OL/DL depth.  (we are okay on DL this year, next year is the issue but we have cap space then)

Edited April 9 by RyanC883

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, RyanC883 said:

 

you are likely correct.  The flip side, though, is that we get 2 great WRs this year, and have an offense and D that can compete this year, and use cap space on FA D next year--and we have been mildly better at FA DL than drafting it.   Along these lines, I'm in the Thomas/Leggette or Persall camp over costly trade FA WR and 2nd round pick.  My ideal situation is trade up for top 3 WR in the draft using next year 1st (which should be low) and draft another WR like Anias Smith or Cowing in Rd. 3 or 4.  

 

I do think its possible they could draft 2 WR's, all I was saying to the other poster was that we are not trading up in the first for a WR then again trading up in the 2nd for another WR.

 

I would cap our trade up at next years first and only for one of the top 4 guys.  And the only reason I would say we can include next years first is because of the extra 2nd we got from the Diggs trade making that more palatable.  This draft is too good and rich to over pay to go too far up for a WR.   

 

Lets say we did go WR with both our first 2 picks...scenario one we take McConkey at 28 or on a small trade back, I wouldn't mind seeing them then go get someone like Legette or Polk after.  If we took someone like Mitchell at 28, then I wouldn't mind seeing them go get someone like McConkey, Pearsall, etc after.  

 

Personally, I think we will nab one WR in either round 1 or 2 depending on the draft falls then probably not take another one until day 3, if we even take another one (Beane may still want to add another vet to the room instead).  

[Beck Water]

On 4/8/2024 at 9:23 AM, Watkins101 said:

Remember when Robert Foster had over 500 yards the final 8 games of the season, and everybody here was saying he was gonna be a 1/2? Kinda feels like that with all the hype Shakir is getting. 

 

I remember, but while I do think Shakir is being a little hyped-up and that people who expect him to be able to inflate his 611 yds and 39 receptions to 60 or 70 receptions for 900 or more yards, or to take over as a boundary receiver, may be disappointed - I also think the situation is much different than Foster.

 

Foster was a one-trick pony.  His trick was get off the line, and run fast, and he wasn't that great at tracking the ball in the air, either (but he could run fast enough to get under an overthrow).  Once DBs got the picture, they would jam him on the line or even hold him and take the DH or DPI instead of giving up the TD.

 

Shakir, while some people wanted him last year, really worked on his craft and worked hard in the off-season.  He came into 2023 as a much better WR all around, better at releasing, running better routes, showing better hands.

 

And he didn't just have 1-2 unworldly games, as Gabe Davis did - he showed a pattern for game after game of catching everything thrown his way, studded with 3 games close to or over 100 yds.  

 

If he gets more target share, he's 100% earned it by working at his craft. 

 

BUT, it would be very risky to count on him producing at a 1/2 level.

[ndirish1978]

I'd rather take Legette at 28, trade back in rd 2 and get Javon Baker in Rd 3. 

[1997WS6]

I keep seeing people say that Shakir is a "slot" guy and can't play outside.  I just looked up his height/weight, 40 yard dash and 20 yard Shuttle times and compared them to Diggs.  He's the same height and weight, but he's faster than Diggs in both the 40 yard dash and 20 yard shuttle.  What am I missing?

[SWATeam]

7 minutes ago, 1997WS6 said:

I keep seeing people say that Shakir is a "slot" guy and can't play outside.  I just looked up his height/weight, 40 yard dash and 20 yard Shuttle times and compared them to Diggs.  He's the same height and weight, but he's faster than Diggs in both the 40 yard dash and 20 yard shuttle.  What am I missing?

Short arms is what I normally see referenced   

[dave mcbride]

8 minutes ago, 1997WS6 said:

I keep seeing people say that Shakir is a "slot" guy and can't play outside.  I just looked up his height/weight, 40 yard dash and 20 yard Shuttle times and compared them to Diggs.  He's the same height and weight, but he's faster than Diggs in both the 40 yard dash and 20 yard shuttle.  What am I missing?

29” arms — very short for nfl receivers. Diggs is 31.25.

[Augie]

10 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

29” arms — very short for nfl receivers. Diggs is 31.25.

 

I’m certainly not arguing, but hold your thumb and forefinger 2.25” apart and imagine how that makes such a huge difference. I know it’s a real thing, but when I look at it that way it’s kind of amazing. 

[dave mcbride]

8 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

I’m certainly not arguing, but hold your thumb and forefinger 2.25” apart and imagine how that makes such a huge difference. I know it’s a real thing, but when I look at it that way it’s kind of amazing. 

I hear you, but the Bills believe in it so much that they apparently won't draft a CB whose arms are shorter than 31".

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

I hear you, but the Bills believe in it so much that they apparently won't draft a CB whose arms are shorter than 31".

 

Length matters!

[Beck Water]

On 4/8/2024 at 9:46 AM, BarleyNY said:

 

Aiyuk would be a tremendous addition to the Bills, but we can’t fit his contract under the cap so that won’t work. I have zero interest in a big trade up for any WR outside the top 3. Too much capital for not much difference than can be had near 28. 

 

So since I'm digging into past drafts:

Year	1st rd WR - pick	order wAV of 1st Rd WR	Pick # Best WR	Pick # 2nd WR	# WR drafted
2017	2 - #7, #9	#7, #9	#69	#89	13
2018	2 - #24, #26	#24, #26	#24	#47	34
2019	2 - #25, #32	#25, #32	#51	#64	28
2020	6 - #12,15,17,21,22,25	#17, 22, 25, 15, 21, 12	#17	#22	35
2021	5 - #5, 6, 10, 20, 27	#5, 10, 6, 27, 20	#112	#5	35
2022	6 - #8,10,11, 12, 16,18	#11, 8, 10, 16, 18, 12	#11	#52	28
2023	4 - #20, 21, 22, 23	#22, 23, 20, 21	#177	#22	33

 

So what does all this mean?  First off, 2023 and 2022 should be taken with a large grain of salt because a lot of guys are still clumped together for wAV, and PFR's weighting may not align with yours and mine.

There were 4 years in which the first WR picked turned out to be the first round WR with the best wAV, and 3 years in which they did not.
There are no years in which the first WR picked, turned out to be the best WR in the draft! 

In 4 out of 7 years, the best WR was not drafted in the 1st round

 

One last bit, even in years where 6 WR were drafted in the 1st round - the consensus BPA for all 32 teams ran out of WR before pick #28.

 

I toss this out for whatever comfort it may pose, if the Bills don't draft a WR in the 1st or don't move up for one of the top 3 WR in the draft.  The board will predictably go nuts, but 4 times in the last 7 years, the best WR in the draft wasn't even drafted in the 1st (3 times, he was)

Every year, various draft pundits authoritatively speak as to which player at a position, or which 2 or 3 players at a position, are absolutely the best in the draft.

 

And far more often than not, they are mistaken.
 

Obviously, teams are making judgements on these points as well, and they're often mistaken

 

Once again, drafting is not an exact science, and then we get into coaching and player development and the intangibles like the player's drive and will to succeed.

Edited April 10 by Beck Water

[Wizard]

On 4/8/2024 at 8:17 PM, mannc said:

So we’ve already been eliminated?  Interesting. 

 

For winning the Super Bowl next season, yes.

[dave mcbride]

11 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

So since I'm digging into past drafts:

Year	1st rd WR - pick	order wAV of 1st Rd WR	Pick # Best WR	Pick # 2nd WR	# WR drafted
2017	2 - #7, #9	#7, #9	#69	#89	13
2018	2 - #24, #26	#24, #26	#24	#47	34
2019	2 - #25, #32	#25, #32	#51	#64	28
2020	6 - #12,15,17,21,22,25	#17, 22, 25, 15, 21, 12	#17	#22	35
2021	5 - #5, 6, 10, 20, 27	#5, 10, 6, 27, 20	#112	#5	35
2022	6 - #8,10,11, 12, 16,18	#11, 8, 10, 16, 18, 12	#11	#52	28
2023	4 - #20, 21, 22, 23	#22, 23, 20, 21	#177	#22	33

 

So what does all this mean?  First off, 2023 and 2022 should be taken with a large grain of salt because a lot of guys are still clumped together for wAV, and PFR's weighting may not align with yours and mine.

There were 4 years in which the first WR picked turned out to be the first round WR with the best wAV, and 3 years in which they did not.
There are no years in which the first WR picked, turned out to be the best WR in the draft! 

In 4 out of 7 years, the best WR was not drafted in the 1st round

 

One last bit, even in years where 6 WR were drafted in the 1st round - the consensus BPA for all 32 teams ran out of WR before pick #28.

 

I toss this out for whatever comfort it may pose, if the Bills don't draft a WR in the 1st or don't move up for one of the top 3 WR in the draft.  The board will predictably go nuts, but 4 times in the last 7 years, the best WR in the draft wasn't even drafted in the 1st (3 times, he was)

Every year, various draft pundits authoritatively speak as to which player at a position, or which 2 or 3 players at a position, are absolutely the best in the draft.

 

And far more often than not, they are mistaken.
 

Obviously, teams are making judgements on these points as well, and they're often mistaken

 

Once again, drafting is not an exact science, and then we get into coaching and player development and the intangibles like the player's drive and will to succeed.

Regarding 2021, in what world is Amon-Ra St. Brown better than Ja’marr Chase? I ask because it surely ain’t earth, and it’s not really debatable.

[Big Turk]

On 4/8/2024 at 10:23 AM, Watkins101 said:

Remember when Robert Foster had over 500 yards the final 8 games of the season, and everybody here was saying he was gonna be a 1/2? Kinda feels like that with all the hype Shakir is getting. 

Yeah, not really.  The advanced metrics are extremely in favor of Shakir actually being really good. They never were for Robert Foster.  Shakir was getting targets as a #3 or #4 option and still made things happen. Foster was a defacto #1 for us and got targets because there was literally nobody else to get them. It was basically him and McKenzie that year for the last half of the season.

 

Robert Foster was never #1 in open rate against man coverage like Shakir was his rookie season and was never #1 in yards/target for any WR with 45 or more targets like Shakir was last year.  I am calling it right now Shakir will be in the 65-70 catch range and 900-1100 range for yards this season. Call it a breakout, call it a natural progression, call it whatever you want.  What I see is a guy who is slippery smooth, runs good routes, gets open against a variety of coverages, catches almost everything thrown to him and then makes something happen after the catch with the ball in his hands and has running back moves and can bounce off tacklers to get extra yards. Yeah he is a 5th round pick, but who cares, so was Diggs.

 

12 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

So since I'm digging into past drafts:

Year	1st rd WR - pick	order wAV of 1st Rd WR	Pick # Best WR	Pick # 2nd WR	# WR drafted
2017	2 - #7, #9	#7, #9	#69	#89	13
2018	2 - #24, #26	#24, #26	#24	#47	34
2019	2 - #25, #32	#25, #32	#51	#64	28
2020	6 - #12,15,17,21,22,25	#17, 22, 25, 15, 21, 12	#17	#22	35
2021	5 - #5, 6, 10, 20, 27	#5, 10, 6, 27, 20	#112	#5	35
2022	6 - #8,10,11, 12, 16,18	#11, 8, 10, 16, 18, 12	#11	#52	28
2023	4 - #20, 21, 22, 23	#22, 23, 20, 21	#177	#22	33

 

So what does all this mean?  First off, 2023 and 2022 should be taken with a large grain of salt because a lot of guys are still clumped together for wAV, and PFR's weighting may not align with yours and mine.

There were 4 years in which the first WR picked turned out to be the first round WR with the best wAV, and 3 years in which they did not.
There are no years in which the first WR picked, turned out to be the best WR in the draft! 

In 4 out of 7 years, the best WR was not drafted in the 1st round

 

One last bit, even in years where 6 WR were drafted in the 1st round - the consensus BPA for all 32 teams ran out of WR before pick #28.

 

I toss this out for whatever comfort it may pose, if the Bills don't draft a WR in the 1st or don't move up for one of the top 3 WR in the draft.  The board will predictably go nuts, but 4 times in the last 7 years, the best WR in the draft wasn't even drafted in the 1st (3 times, he was)

Every year, various draft pundits authoritatively speak as to which player at a position, or which 2 or 3 players at a position, are absolutely the best in the draft.

 

And far more often than not, they are mistaken.
 

Obviously, teams are making judgements on these points as well, and they're often mistaken

 

Once again, drafting is not an exact science, and then we get into coaching and player development and the intangibles like the player's drive and will to succeed.

 

This is a good point and a large part of how successful a player is or isn't comes down to how they are used, the scheme they play in and the opportunities they are given.  I mean would Puka Nacua have gotten such a prominent role in the offense if Cooper Kupp hadn't been injured?  Probably not. Also, a WR drafted in the 3rd round on a bad team might get a lot more snaps as a top 3 WR than a 1st round pick drafted on a good team. Or at least a similar number of reps, and might be targeted more often than a rookie on a good team simply due to too many players and not enough balls to go around where the same player on a bad team doesn't have this issue.

 

Edited April 10 by Big Turk

[NewEra]

If we traded a first (and possibly more) for Aiyuk AND paid him 25m+ a year I wouldn’t be happy.  I’d consider giving them out 2nd rd next year for him, but we all know that isn’t happening 

we paid what we paid for Diggs partly because he was already on his and contract which was extremely team friendly.  
 

I’d rather have Legette then to pay a big price for BTj in a trade up.

 

i would be ok if they decided to go all in on MHj, Nabers or Odunze.  I think all 3 are potentially elite all pro level WRs with 17 and would be under control for 5 years
 

 

[Big Turk]

Just now, NewEra said:

If we traded a first (and possibly more) for Aiyuk AND paid him 25m+ a year I wouldn’t be happy.  I’d consider giving them out 2nd rd next year for him, but we all know that isn’t happening 

we paid what we paid for Diggs partly because he was already on his and contract which was extremely team friendly.  
 

I’d rather have Legette then to pay a big price for BTj in a trade up.

 

i would be ok if they decided to go all in on MHj, Nabers or Odunze.  I think all 3 are potentially elite all pro level WRs with 17 and would be under control for 5 years
 

 

 

The higher up they go to get a player the bigger the rookie cap hit will be tho, something to keep in mind too...

[MiracleAtRich1393]

18 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

29” arms — very short for nfl receivers. Diggs is 31.25.

Yep - not nearly the same issue in the slot as on the boundary (press coverage)

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Wizard said:

 

For winning the Super Bowl next season, yes.

Yeah, OK