Calling it now: You're all about to witness the arrival of Shakir

[NewEra]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I can't see that happening.    I can see a team putting a good CB on him and calling it a win.   That shuts down most TE's if teams are so unthreatened by your WR that they can afford to do that.   First time I really saw it was Wade putting Antoine Winfield on Tony Gonzales and shutting him down.   The tactic basically ruined Jimmy Grahams career when he went to Seattle and all they had were guys like Baldwin and Kearse outside.    Kelce was a real exception as a guy who isn't very impactful inline but still tears up whoever he gets in coverage.   Not sure Kincaid is going to become as much of a physical presence as Kelce.   He's pretty finesse.  

Good point.  If that’s the case, it could create a mismatch with one of our other receivers or RB.  
 

that said- I saw teams bracket Kincaid from time to time last season and I’m sure it’s going to happen this year as well.  I don’t know how easy it’ll be for opposing DCs to routinely have the proper defensive alignments with us play 12 personnel and pounding the run game.  Kincaid will be moved all around the formation (imo).  

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

We will see. 

 

 

Obv.  Thanks tho!

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Good point.  If that’s the case, it could create a mismatch with one of our other receivers or RB.  
 

that said- I saw teams bracket Kincaid from time to time last season and I’m sure it’s going to happen this year as well.  I don’t know how easy it’ll be for opposing DCs to routinely have the proper defensive alignments with us play 12 personnel and pounding the run game.  Kincaid will be moved all around the formation (imo).  

Obv.  Thanks tho!

 

If you want to argue we can replicate this ...  

 

 

[Shaw66]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think there is going to be one guy on this offense that defenses key in on every week like they did on Stef. Certainly not early in the year anyway. In a sense that might give us a little bit of an advantage early on in the season if Josh genuinely can spread the ball around. I expect at some point teams will revert to a "don't let Samuel win deep and force Kincaid to break off his routes short rather than threaten the seam." But it will take some time for defenses to workout how this offense is going to run and if we can hit the ground ready to roll in week 1 that might even be in our favour. 

This is a great description of how I see it, too.  No one will be the key guy, until someone becomes a threat.  The real question about the success of this group of receivers will be what they can do AFTER they go "don't let Samuel win deep and force Kincaid to break off his routes short rather than threaten the seam."  How do they adjust and continue to have success?   Put another way, if defenses are taking away what you do best, what or who allows you to take advantage of the defensive schemes they're using?   That's when someone, Shakir or Samuel or Coleman or Kincaid has to step up.  

[Logic]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, again, we'll see, but there are several false narratives surrounding Brady that will come to light this fall to at least some extent.  

 

Otherwise, I decided to watch an every target video of Coleman this a.m.  It's only a 22 minute video but took me a couple of hours to go through.  Even by my low standards I'm not impressed, in fact, if anything it lessened, not heightened my expectations there.  I see the hype even less after viewing it.  And while drops are measured differently, I counted at least 15 dropped passes or at least passes that he should have caught but did not.  We can go thru them if you like, game by game.  Watch the passes against BC, what, three, four drops?  Louisvile a few too.  

 

The other thing that I noticed with him, that much like Watkins, he had a lot of bubble screens and gadget plays, which typically aren't effective in the NFL.  So that's also worrisome.  Otherwise, most of his catches were on shorter throws where he was wide-opened or screened, per above, and a bunch of very short crossing routes.  I saw precious few catches that he made in coverage.  His LSU game seems to stand out, but after that, it's difficult to find much that's impressive in his other 41 catches in his 536 yards in 11 other games otherwise.  In fact, I see absolutely nothing that tells me that if he were to line up to go deep that any DC in the league would worry about putting more than one DB on him.  

 

I can see his appeal on "highlight" videos, which would be short for this past season, like that one play where he hurdled the defender, but again, on a pass where he was open on deep coverage on 3rd-and-14, against Southern Miss, a Sunbelt team with one of the worst Ds in the NCAAs btw.  But those are few.  Then the second TD catch in the Clemson game.  On the first he was WIDE open.  That second catch against Syracuse was spectacular.  The TD against Syracuse was against CB Isaiah Johnson, a senior, who went undrafted and according to NFL.com's draft profile would be on the bottom of a roster or a practice squad.  So beating him wasn't particularly impressive.  He won't see that coverage in the NFL with even a hint of regularity.  One great route vs. Duke for about 30 yards.  And another nice catch for a bunch vs. Duke.  His TD catch vs. Wake Forest was nice, not spectacular, but nice, but WF had a horrid D too.  His second TD against Wake was on Caelen Carson, drafted late in the 5th round.  

 

So while watching that, I can see how while viewing just the above catches, one could come away thinking that he's some kind of steal and an Andre Johnson lite, but while watching the other 90% of his play, it makes me wonder why anyone sees anything in him at all worthy of a day 1 or even day 2 pick at all.  He reminds me of Knox in terms of receiving skills and highlights.  Just enough huge plays here or there to make you think there's more in there when there isn't.  

 

About the biggest kick in the nads to Allen that we could give him would be using Coleman as he was used at FSU.  Getting Watkins vibes here in fact, except that Watkins did in fact have speed.  

 

Either way, the schtick is that he's got great hands and makes all these contested catches.  Is that what you see while watching the video?  I'd be interested in your take.  Again, since there's not much else to do 'til the schedule release, I'd be happy to go thru game by game and itemize each target.  

 

 

I am on record in multiple threads about being unexcited about this pick. He was not who I wanted the Bills to take, and I've listed all the reasons why. When they announced his name, I was actively disappointed.

With that said, while I appreciate the conclusion you came to after watching his "All Targets" video, I feel like you're being a bit unfair and unreasonable.

Coleman was a consensus top 40 player in this draft. There was barely an outlet anywhere that didn't list him as such. We saw Bill Belichick's draft board on the McAfee pre-draft show, and it had Coleman as a top 40 player. We know for sure the Bills had him there. Rumors are that the Patriots wanted to draft him as well, and in any case, he likely would've never fallen past pick 40 at the very latest.

My point is that your comments about "wondering why anyone sees anything in him at all" indicate to me that you might be out of your depth. That is to say, there must be a REASON so many different pro scouts and analysts saw enough potential in Coleman to grade him as a second round prospect. The fact that you fail to see what that reasons might be suggests that maybe you're not sure what to be looking for.

Now don't get me wrong -- the pros get it wrong sometimes, too, and busts and bad players are routinely drafted high. But Beane has a reasonably good draft track record (I said reasonably good, not elite) and an army of scouts that do this for a living, and they saw fit to draft Coleman with the 33rd pick. Surely there must be SOME reason. Surely there must be SOME redeeming qualities.

While I still don't like pick, I can at least admit that he has positive and moldable qualities. Your analysis makes it sound like he's a 5th to 7th round prospect -- if not outright undraftable -- and that just strikes me as overkill. I can't help but wonder what your conclusion would've been about Josh Allen if you had watched an "all throws" video from his final college season.

 

Edited May 2 by Logic

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

If you want to argue we can replicate this ...  

 

 

My time on earth is too valuable to argue with the likes of you.  Thanks for the offer though

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Chaos said:

Josh is not the limiting factor on spreading the ball around.  Multiple different people having the ability to get open is the limiting factor on spreading it around.  If just throws for 4300 yards again this season and all of those yards to only 1 guy, I would be fine with that.  

 

I think is a factor he isn't the factor. This kind of offense where you don't have a single guy who you can rely on to always be open puts an extra premium on decision making. We have to get better than 2023 Josh to give that a shot of working. If it doesn't it won't really be Josh's fault. It will be Beane's fault for giving him the talent he has given him either because the guys couldn't get open or because if Josh again struggles at times with a decision maker it will prove why giving him those elite talented weapons to make those decisions easier matters. 

[PBF81]

19 minutes ago, NewEra said:

My time on earth is too valuable to argue with the likes of you.  Thanks for the offer though

 

And yet ...

 

😏

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, again, we'll see, but there are several false narratives surrounding Brady that will come to light this fall to at least some extent.  

 

Otherwise, I decided to watch an every target video of Coleman this a.m.  It's only a 22 minute video but took me a couple of hours to go through.  Even by my low standards I'm not impressed, in fact, if anything it lessened, not heightened my expectations there.  I see the hype even less after viewing it.  And while drops are measured differently, I counted at least 15 dropped passes or at least passes that he should have caught but did not.  We can go thru them if you like, game by game.  Watch the passes against BC, what, three, four drops?  Louisvile a few too.  

 

The other thing that I noticed with him, that much like Watkins, he had a lot of bubble screens and gadget plays, which typically aren't effective in the NFL.  So that's also worrisome.  Otherwise, most of his catches were on shorter throws where he was wide-opened or screened, per above, and a bunch of very short crossing routes.  I saw precious few catches that he made in coverage.  His LSU game seems to stand out, but after that, it's difficult to find much that's impressive in his other 41 catches in his 536 yards in 11 other games otherwise.  In fact, I see absolutely nothing that tells me that if he were to line up to go deep that any DC in the league would worry about putting more than one DB on him.  

 

I can see his appeal on "highlight" videos, which would be short for this past season, like that one play where he hurdled the defender, but again, on a pass where he was open on deep coverage on 3rd-and-14, against Southern Miss, a Sunbelt team with one of the worst Ds in the NCAAs btw.  But those are few.  Then the second TD catch in the Clemson game.  On the first he was WIDE open.  That second catch against Syracuse was spectacular.  The TD against Syracuse was against CB Isaiah Johnson, a senior, who went undrafted and according to NFL.com's draft profile would be on the bottom of a roster or a practice squad.  So beating him wasn't particularly impressive.  He won't see that coverage in the NFL with even a hint of regularity.  One great route vs. Duke for about 30 yards.  And another nice catch for a bunch vs. Duke.  His TD catch vs. Wake Forest was nice, not spectacular, but nice, but WF had a horrid D too.  His second TD against Wake was on Caelen Carson, drafted late in the 5th round.  

 

So while watching that, I can see how while viewing just the above catches, one could come away thinking that he's some kind of steal and an Andre Johnson lite, but while watching the other 90% of his play, it makes me wonder why anyone sees anything in him at all worthy of a day 1 or even day 2 pick at all.  He reminds me of Knox in terms of receiving skills and highlights.  Just enough huge plays here or there to make you think there's more in there when there isn't.  

 

About the biggest kick in the nads to Allen that we could give him would be using Coleman as he was used at FSU.  Getting Watkins vibes here in fact, except that Watkins did in fact have speed.  

 

Either way, the schtick is that he's got great hands and makes all these contested catches.  Is that what you see while watching the video?  I'd be interested in your take.  Again, since there's not much else to do 'til the schedule release, I'd be happy to go thru game by game and itemize each target.  

 

 

 

Sadly I agree with a lot of this. My scouting report on Coleman was basically (this is almost word for word my original notes on him).

 

1. Elite size and fast enough without top end speed - seems to move faster with the ball than when running routes. 

 

2. Does not separate, espeically vertically. Lacks explosion in his get off which often results in him giving up leverage early in the down when outside. 

 

3. Hands are okay but doesn't win enough contested catches for a guy with his size (my point there basically not a lot of "drops" in the true sense of the word but a lot of balls he could make a play on and reel in that he doesn't manage to)

 

4. Better uses his leverage and size when deployed from the slot and gets a free release. That allows him to dictate to the DB better.

 

5. YAC monster, surprisingly fluid when ball carrying for a guy his size and tough to bring down in the open field. 

 

6. Excellent and willing run blocker.

 

7. Very young probably not yet fully developed physically. NFL coaching and conditioning could help his explosion which might give him a better chance in time outside.

 

Ideal usage: big slot receiver, some outside use in redzone and goalline. Developmental prospect as an outside receiver between the 20s. 

 

Late 2nd round grade. (He ended up #50 overall on my board FWIW)

 

_ _ _ _ _ 

 

If the Bills had a true #1 (still had the Diggs of two years ago for example) and were bringing Coleman in as a potential upgrade to Gabe I'd completely have got it. He has some similar traits and good reason to think his ceiling is higher. But if they bring this kid in stick him outside and expect him to be your #1 outside receiver early I fear you are setting him and your team up to be disappointed.

Edited May 2 by GunnerBill

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

You've gotta love comps like that. 

 

And oddly Diggs' season extrapolated YFS under Brady was 765.  Under Dorsey it was over twice that at 1,475.  Thoughts?  

 

Diggs disappeared under Dorsey the year before too in the 2nd half of the season and playoffs.  Diggs has never in 4 seasons had a great playoff run, or even a good one. 

 

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

The only reason why Cook was over it under Brady is because McD thinks that with Allen at QB the way to win games is to run the ball and have a defense that is great, except when it comes to playoff time when his D takes a premature vacation that is, while minimizing Allen's passing game.  In the playoffs he simply throws everything to the four winds and stands aside while Allen takes over.  Great coaching there.  Why do you think that they drafted Davis, at pick #128, coincidentally the same pick that the other Davis, Gabe was picked at, when we had other more prominent needs.  This team has no idea what it's doing until they do it on the offensive side.  Our offense is an overlooked inconvenience by McD.  

 

Hard disagree here.  There is simply no truth to the fact that McD wants to run the ball and be a run first team.  He has said many times he wants more big plays, to get the passing game going.  But this team was anemic rushing the ball, especially in the playoffs and bad weather when we needed it the most.  When your D can't stop Mahomes the best thing is to keep control of the ball and keep him off the field.  We were one dimensional before Cooks emergence last year, and some of you act like that was a bad thing.  

 

McD has also been one of the absolute most aggressive coaches in the NFL since he has been HC.  

 

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Also, to start, Carolina also had DJ Moore.  We have no received that is Moore's equal here.  

 

We had a top 5, arguably top 3 for a couple years, in Diggs and didn't get out of the 2nd round the past 3 seasons.  

 

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

Secondly, in 2020 he also had the 24th ranked scoring offense and 21st ranked yardage offense, which regressed to the 29th and 30th in 2021.  So maybe all those YFS don't translate to scoring.  Maybe we can expect a similar regression by 5 and 9 rankings here too.  

You're also taking some extreme liberties, Samuel was barely over 1k YFS, but he needed 200 rushing yards to get that, which you fail to mention.  If we start using Samuel to run the ball for the 41 carries that he had, then something's wrong. 

 

Or maybe that had to do with their QB not being very good.  If you cant see the MASSIVE canyon of difference between Allen and Bridgewater and how that will affect the two teams scoring then I don't know what to tell you.  And those guys had that season with a crappy Bridgewater at QB.

 

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

It's difficult to imagine our offense improving over last season's, and the scoring and yardage metrics were better under Dorsey than they were under Brady, not by much, but they were.  And the way that our offense faded down the stretch over the last three regular season games, when every game was like a playoff game and every win was needed for even a wild-card, along with our sluggish 19.5 PPG over the last three regular season games, and against teams ranked 24th, 15th, and 22nd in scoring D.  And it's not like we really stepped it up in the playoffs.  Our offensive performances in the playoffs were incredibly average by our season standard.  

 

Do you even realize how little Diggs and Davis contributed once Dorsey was fired?  If you don't think this offense can thrive without them, then you weren't paying attention second half of the season and playoffs. 

 

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

If you want to run comps, look at how our players last season did in that regard under Brady.   There wasn't a receiver that even sniffed 1,000 YFS extrapolated for 17 games on his watch.  Shakir was the closest at just over 900, but keep in mind that he had Diggs & Davis drawing coverage.  Cook did, easily, but that was largely due to that huge Dallas game.  Cook faded severely, when wins were needed the most, in the last 3 regular season games and the playoffs where he averaged a mere 3.4 yards-per-touch and a horrid 3.5 yards-per-carry over the last five games including our two playoff games.  Cook didn't have a TD either rushing or receiving in any of those last five games.  Was that because he's not used to getting so many carries?  He started frittering out when he hit about 190.  

 

Without that outlier Dallas game our per-game metrics were notably worse than under Dorsey.  After that our offense all but collapsed.  

 

Do you expect that we're going to have two WRs over 1,000 YFS?  

 

 

 

Shakir broke out second half season and his role built up over the season.  Kincaid was a rookie.  Cook broke out as well.  These are young ascending players on the rise, yet you talk like they peaked.  And Brady didn't install his system, he was running Dorseys.  Now he gets an entire offseason to work with these players, install his system and integrate someone he knows well in Samuel and also our new rookie in Coleman.  

 

I think all 3 of Coleman, Shakir, and Kincaid will flirt with 1000 yards this year personally.  

[Augie]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Why does it matter?  We are going to present defenses with a new set of challenges.  Instead of just having to worry about Diggs, they are going to have to worry about 5 different players in Cook, Kincaid, Coleman, Shakir and Samuel.  This will be one of those years where Josh can sit back and take what the defense gives and no longer have to feed Diggs. Each week we may see a different hot hand getting the targets depending on the holes in the defense.

 

When Brady was in Carolina they had 4 players with over 1000 yards from scrimmage; 3 WRs and 1 RB.  Their  RBs had 100 targets in the passing game.  Their top 3 WRs had 136, 118 and 97 targets and all that with trading McCaffery 3 games into the season and no TE worth a crap.  

 

The Bills last year only had 2 players with 1000+ yards from scrimmage.; Cook with 1567 and Diggs with 1188.  The only other player over 700 yards was Davis.  This season I expect all 5 guys I listed to exceed 700 scrimmage yards.

 

 

 

Brady would kill us like that, especially early in a game. The first eight passes might all go to different people. 

 

Almost as bad as everybody on the field knowing they can run against you, and there is nothing you can do to stop it. 

[Alphadawg7]

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Sadly I agree with a lot of this. My scouting report on Coleman was basically (this is almost word for word my original notes on him).

 

1. Elite size and fast enough without top end speed - seems to move faster with the ball than when running routes. 

 

2. Does not separate, espeically vertically. Lacks explosion in his get off which often results in him giving up leverage early in the down when outside. 

 

3. Hands are okay but doesn't win enough contested catches for a guy with his size (my point there basically not a lot of "drops" in the true sense of the word but a lot of balls he could make a play on and reel in that he doesn't manage to)

 

4. Better uses his leverage and size when deployed from the slot and gets a free release. That allows him to dictate to the DB better.

 

5. YAC monster, surprisingly fluid when ball carrying for a guy his size and tough to bring down in the open field. 

 

6. Excellent and willing run blocker.

 

7. Very young probably not yet fully developed physically. NFL coaching and conditioning could help his explosion which might give him a better chance in time outside.

 

Ideal usage: big slot receiver, some outside use in redzone and goalline. Developmental prospect as an outside receiver between the 20s. 

 

Late 2nd round grade. (He ended up #50 overall on my board FWIW)

 

_ _ _ _ _ 

 

If the Bills had a true #1 (still had the Diggs of two years ago for example) and were bringing Coleman in as a potential upgrade to Gabe I'd completely have got it. He has some similar traits and good reason to think his ceiling is higher. But if they bring this kid in stick him outside and expect him to be your #1 outside receiver early I fear you are setting him and your team up to be disappointed.

 

Beane already said he will be an X WR here, not a big slot.  I think what some of you are missing on this pick is you have in your mind what you think they should do rather than focusing on what the kind of offense they are actually building.  Everyone loves speed, even our FO.  But, there is a very strong theme Beane has made very clear...he wants players with an edge, players who bring more swagger and toughness to the table.  He isn't trying to build a track team out there, he is giving Allen options at various phases of the field, guys who can make that extra play or two that we have failed to make in the post season that has kept us from advancing.  

 

They said Jefferson was a big slot too.  They said Mike Evans wasn't fast enough to be on the outside.  And I know that you felt DeAndre Hopkins was the best WR in football for a long time, yet Coleman's pro day 40 was faster than any 40 Hopkins ran.  Even his slower 40 at the combine wasn't much slower than Hopkins and still faster than a lot of other WR1's that have had great careers in the NFL, and even HOF careers.  

 

So I think everyones tendency to label him a big slot is selling him short.  One thing being over looked is how Florida St used him too and what they asked him to do.  He is going to get a whole other level of coaching on technique to take advantage of all that athleticism where he can win and separate in the NFL like all the other greats who ran similar or worse 40's than him.  

 

As far as his contested catch %, it was much higher prior to last year and was impacted playing the backup QB where they put a lot of praryer low percentage balls towards him.  He still only had 2 drops on the season, and I think we will see he is quite good on contested catches when he has an elite QB putting the ball more consistently in places he can win those 50/50 balls.  I have always hated them being called 50/50 balls, because that is the worst description.  Some of them are put in places where they should be caught at a higher rate than 50% (see Diggs dropped bomb vs KC where he let ball go through his hands for example...should catch that almost all the time) and many many more that are much lower than 50% because they are poorly placed for the WR to succeed, and some that are so much so that the WR plays more defense than anything on the ball to keep the turnover from happening.  

 

So for me, I think he is going to excel at the contested catch in the NFL and benefit from off script throws by Allen too getting him balls in areas only he can get to.  And I do think he has the commitment, intelligence, and athleticism to excel and succeed in the NFL at getting separation and plenty of YAC as well.  

[Logic]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Beane already said he will be an X WR here, not a big slot.  I think what some of you are missing on this pick is you have in your mind what you think they should do rather than focusing on what the kind of offense they are actually building.  Everyone loves speed, even our FO.  But, there is a very strong theme Beane has made very clear...he wants players with an edge, players who bring more swagger and toughness to the table.  He isn't trying to build a track team out there, he is giving Allen options at various phases of the field, guys who can make that extra play or two that we have failed to make in the post season that has kept us from advancing.  

 

They said Jefferson was a big slot too.  They said Mike Evans wasn't fast enough to be on the outside.  And I know that you felt DeAndre Hopkins was the best WR in football for a long time, yet Coleman's pro day 40 was faster than any 40 Hopkins ran.  Even his slower 40 at the combine wasn't much slower than Hopkins and still faster than a lot of other WR1's that have had great careers in the NFL, and even HOF careers.  

 

So I think everyones tendency to label him a big slot is selling him short.  One thing being over looked is how Florida St used him too and what they asked him to do.  He is going to get a whole other level of coaching on technique to take advantage of all that athleticism where he can win and separate in the NFL like all the other greats who ran similar or worse 40's than him.  

 

As far as his contested catch %, it was much higher prior to last year and was impacted playing the backup QB where they put a lot of praryer low percentage balls towards him.  He still only had 2 drops on the season, and I think we will see he is quite good on contested catches when he has an elite QB putting the ball more consistently in places he can win those 50/50 balls.  I have always hated them being called 50/50 balls, because that is the worst description.  Some of them are put in places where they should be caught at a higher rate than 50% (see Diggs dropped bomb vs KC where he let ball go through his hands for example...should catch that almost all the time) and many many more that are much lower than 50% because they are poorly placed for the WR to succeed, and some that are so much so that the WR plays more defense than anything on the ball to keep the turnover from happening.  

 

So for me, I think he is going to excel at the contested catch in the NFL and benefit from off script throws by Allen too getting him balls in areas only he can get to.  And I do think he has the commitment, intelligence, and athleticism to excel and succeed in the NFL at getting separation and plenty of YAC as well.  

To your point, Alpha (even though I'm more on the Gunner side of things in this particular discussion)....

Here's Justin Jefferson's pre-draft scouting report. You'll notice a couple key differences, but also a lot of similar language as is used about Keon.

Granted, Jefferson also posted a 1500 yard, 18 TD season as a Jr, so that's a pretty big asterisk. Nevertheless, looking solely at the scouting report itself and the traits themselves:

 

Overview

A quarterback's best friend, with the contested-catch focus and extreme ball skills to boost completion percentages. Jefferson failed to stand out as an outside target but saw his stock soar with a monster season from the slot. He has decent speed and separation talent, but he needs to improve as a route-runner, as he's less likely to see the same freedom in space that LSU's offense helped create for him. He's slippery in space and able to stab and save throws with quick hands and fluid body adjustments. Teams looking for an inside/outside possession receiver with the size and savvy to make chain-moving catches could push Jefferson up the board.

Strengths

Good initial burst off the snap. Slippery working around traffic and redirection in space. Jab step gives separation from route stem more life. Naturally instinctive pass-catcher. Adjusts speeds to track throws and shield coverage. Makes twisting, twirling mid-air adjustments look easy. Ridiculous catch radius to help a quarterback out. Sharpened catch focus in 2019. Quick hands to stab anticipation throws coming out of breaks. Leaping and length carry him to the high point. Reliable from slot at making "gotta have it" catches to extend drives. Willing to do his part and give effort as slot blocker.

Weaknesses

Spread scheme threw field wide open for him. Needs more attention to detail with his routes. Too complacent to beat coverage with athletic ability. Unable to run away and separate from tight man. Size and strength across from him impede production. Will take time adjusting to press looks as a pro. Limited one-on-one prowess to win 50/50 throws. Separation talent just average outside.

Edited May 2 by Logic

[Awwufelloff]

Agree, he’s the player I’m most excited for this year 

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think is a factor he isn't the factor. This kind of offense where you don't have a single guy who you can rely on to always be open puts an extra premium on decision making. We have to get better than 2023 Josh to give that a shot of working. If it doesn't it won't really be Josh's fault. It will be Beane's fault for giving him the talent he has given him either because the guys couldn't get open or because if Josh again struggles at times with a decision maker it will prove why giving him those elite talented weapons to make those decisions easier matters. 

Josh doesn't struggle with decision making. 

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Beane already said he will be an X WR here, not a big slot.  I think what some of you are missing on this pick is you have in your mind what you think they should do rather than focusing on what the kind of offense they are actually building.  Everyone loves speed, even our FO.  But, there is a very strong theme Beane has made very clear...he wants players with an edge, players who bring more swagger and toughness to the table.  He isn't trying to build a track team out there, he is giving Allen options at various phases of the field, guys who can make that extra play or two that we have failed to make in the post season that has kept us from advancing.  

 

They said Jefferson was a big slot too.  They said Mike Evans wasn't fast enough to be on the outside.  And I know that you felt DeAndre Hopkins was the best WR in football for a long time, yet Coleman's pro day 40 was faster than any 40 Hopkins ran.  Even his slower 40 at the combine wasn't much slower than Hopkins and still faster than a lot of other WR1's that have had great careers in the NFL, and even HOF careers.  

 

So I think everyones tendency to label him a big slot is selling him short.  One thing being over looked is how Florida St used him too and what they asked him to do.  He is going to get a whole other level of coaching on technique to take advantage of all that athleticism where he can win and separate in the NFL like all the other greats who ran similar or worse 40's than him.  

 

 

 

I am not fixated on speed. My concerns on Coleman came way before the 40 time. And I said right after the Combine that I thought he could run faster than that. It is about separation for me, especially vertically, and while straight line speed is a factor in that it isn't the only one. Explosion and release package at the line both need work and his understanding of how to use leverage needs work. Can some of it be coached up - yes. But this is exactly my point. I think it needs coaching up and you are not gonna get him there by week 1 of year 1 IMO. 

 

So comparing 40 times isn't the point here for me. All of the scouting report I prepared above on Coleman was pre-Combine. He was literally the 3rd guy in the entire class that I got through way back in January.  

 

I still disagree on contest catches too. I think he needs to be a lot better there. 

 

Can he become a dominant outside receiver in time? Possibly. Is that going to be where he is most able to have success early in the NFL? Not for me.

 

 

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Josh doesn't struggle with decision making. 

 

He did in 2023 I am afraid (compared to his own previous standard not compared to joe average NFL QB). His decision making regressed compared to the three previous seasons.

Edited May 2 by GunnerBill

[stinky finger]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Good question…one, I don’t think we need anyone to draw double coverage because every guy on the field can win their matchup now between Coleman, Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, Knox, Cook, and Davis.  We can put pressure anywhere we want really.  
 

But, I do think Coleman is going to start drawing double coverage if he comes in and finds early success because with his size there really isn’t any other way to cover him.  
 

There is a lot of people down on our offensive group as a whole right now, but I’m honestly very excited about it and think we will be better than last year, especially with Brady getting to finally install his full offense.  

I find myself warming up to the possibilities of having multiple "good" choices for JA to choose from. Plus, our run game will be a force that needs to be reckoned with. 

 

I am most curious to see how Brady utilities what's at his disposal.

[Dr. Who]

4 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

You've gotta love comps like that. 

 

And oddly Diggs' season extrapolated YFS under Brady was 765.  Under Dorsey it was over twice that at 1,475.  Thoughts?  

 

The only reason why Cook was over it under Brady is because McD thinks that with Allen at QB the way to win games is to run the ball and have a defense that is great, except when it comes to playoff time when his D takes a premature vacation that is, while minimizing Allen's passing game.  In the playoffs he simply throws everything to the four winds and stands aside while Allen takes over.  Great coaching there.  Why do you think that they drafted Davis, at pick #128, coincidentally the same pick that the other Davis, Gabe was picked at, when we had other more prominent needs.  This team has no idea what it's doing until they do it on the offensive side.  Our offense is an overlooked inconvenience by McD.  

 

Also, to start, Carolina also had DJ Moore.  We have no received that is Moore's equal here.  

Secondly, in 2020 he also had the 24th ranked scoring offense and 21st ranked yardage offense, which regressed to the 29th and 30th in 2021.  So maybe all those YFS don't translate to scoring.  Maybe we can expect a similar regression by 5 and 9 rankings here too.  

You're also taking some extreme liberties, Samuel was barely over 1k YFS, but he needed 200 rushing yards to get that, which you fail to mention.  If we start using Samuel to run the ball for the 41 carries that he had, then something's wrong. 

 

It's difficult to imagine our offense improving over last season's, and the scoring and yardage metrics were better under Dorsey than they were under Brady, not by much, but they were.  And the way that our offense faded down the stretch over the last three regular season games, when every game was like a playoff game and every win was needed for even a wild-card, along with our sluggish 19.5 PPG over the last three regular season games, and against teams ranked 24th, 15th, and 22nd in scoring D.  And it's not like we really stepped it up in the playoffs.  Our offensive performances in the playoffs were incredibly average by our season standard.  

 

If you want to run comps, look at how our players last season did in that regard under Brady.   There wasn't a receiver that even sniffed 1,000 YFS extrapolated for 17 games on his watch.  Shakir was the closest at just over 900, but keep in mind that he had Diggs & Davis drawing coverage.  Cook did, easily, but that was largely due to that huge Dallas game.  Cook faded severely, when wins were needed the most, in the last 3 regular season games and the playoffs where he averaged a mere 3.4 yards-per-touch and a horrid 3.5 yards-per-carry over the last five games including our two playoff games.  Cook didn't have a TD either rushing or receiving in any of those last five games.  Was that because he's not used to getting so many carries?  He started frittering out when he hit about 190.  

 

Without that outlier Dallas game our per-game metrics were notably worse than under Dorsey.  After that our offense all but collapsed.  

 

Do you expect that we're going to have two WRs over 1,000 YFS?  

 

 

Man, if they put you and Alphadawg7 in a room together, we are going to have one of those universe level destruction events where matter and anti-matter meet.

[MasterStrategist]

4 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, again, we'll see, but there are several false narratives surrounding Brady that will come to light this fall to at least some extent.  

 

Otherwise, I decided to watch an every target video of Coleman this a.m.  It's only a 22 minute video but took me a couple of hours to go through.  Even by my low standards I'm not impressed, in fact, if anything it lessened, not heightened my expectations there.  I see the hype even less after viewing it.  And while drops are measured differently, I counted at least 15 dropped passes or at least passes that he should have caught but did not.  We can go thru them if you like, game by game.  Watch the passes against BC, what, three, four drops?  Louisvile a few too.  

 

The other thing that I noticed with him, that much like Watkins, he had a lot of bubble screens and gadget plays, which typically aren't effective in the NFL.  So that's also worrisome.  Otherwise, most of his catches were on shorter throws where he was wide-opened or screened, per above, and a bunch of very short crossing routes.  I saw precious few catches that he made in coverage.  His LSU game seems to stand out, but after that, it's difficult to find much that's impressive in his other 41 catches in his 536 yards in 11 other games otherwise.  In fact, I see absolutely nothing that tells me that if he were to line up to go deep that any DC in the league would worry about putting more than one DB on him.  

 

I can see his appeal on "highlight" videos, which would be short for this past season, like that one play where he hurdled the defender, but again, on a pass where he was open on deep coverage on 3rd-and-14, against Southern Miss, a Sunbelt team with one of the worst Ds in the NCAAs btw.  But those are few.  Then the second TD catch in the Clemson game.  On the first he was WIDE open.  That second catch against Syracuse was spectacular.  The TD against Syracuse was against CB Isaiah Johnson, a senior, who went undrafted and according to NFL.com's draft profile would be on the bottom of a roster or a practice squad.  So beating him wasn't particularly impressive.  He won't see that coverage in the NFL with even a hint of regularity.  One great route vs. Duke for about 30 yards.  And another nice catch for a bunch vs. Duke.  His TD catch vs. Wake Forest was nice, not spectacular, but nice, but WF had a horrid D too.  His second TD against Wake was on Caelen Carson, drafted late in the 5th round.  

 

So while watching that, I can see how while viewing just the above catches, one could come away thinking that he's some kind of steal and an Andre Johnson lite, but while watching the other 90% of his play, it makes me wonder why anyone sees anything in him at all worthy of a day 1 or even day 2 pick at all.  He reminds me of Knox in terms of receiving skills and highlights.  Just enough huge plays here or there to make you think there's more in there when there isn't.  

 

About the biggest kick in the nads to Allen that we could give him would be using Coleman as he was used at FSU.  Getting Watkins vibes here in fact, except that Watkins did in fact have speed.  

 

Either way, the schtick is that he's got great hands and makes all these contested catches.  Is that what you see while watching the video?  I'd be interested in your take.  Again, since there's not much else to do 'til the schedule release, I'd be happy to go thru game by game and itemize each target.  

 

 

How are you getting 3-4 drops against Boston College?

 

You must be grading this extremely difficult against Coleman intentionally.

 

Travis' ball placement is horrible on half his throws, not only against BC but others.  He's also late with his throws until Keon is wide open on others, and under threw at least 2 long TDs to Keon.

 

Back to BC game, Keon back shoulder in end zone his arm is being arm barred on 1st pass...that would've been a 1 handed catch...is that 1 of your 4 drops?  How about the crosser where Travis throws the ball behind Keon, into double coverage...does that count as another?

 

You can be against the pick, that's your opinion.  But if you're counting 15 drops, that just seems like biased judgment of what you deem "catchable", bad throws/uncatchable, and what are true 50/50 balls.  First play vs LSU, Travis throws that pass at least 1 foot over a 6' 4" man who also got a great vertical on the play,  was that a drop?

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I still disagree on contest catches too. I think he needs to be a lot better there. 

 

I'm curious about your thoughts on the Michigan State tape. His contested catch percentage was much better there than it was at FSU. I don't think Coleman regressed so that leads me to believe it was a difference in QB that caused the substantial dip in contested catch percentage. I thought Jordan Travis had very poor ball placement and timing on a lot of those opportunities.

 

In any case I don't like Coleman because of what he's done. I like him because of what I think he will be after NFL coaching and seasoning. All the tools are there, he just needs to learn how to use that size and body control to dominate CBs at the next level.

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

And yet ...

 

😏

 

 

We have different interpretations of an argument

Edited May 2 by NewEra