Calling it now: You're all about to witness the arrival of Shakir

[Juice_32]

I feel like you’re usually spot on with these kinds of posts, so I’m in! 

[Alphadawg7]

17 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

kupp had 92 and 94 catches the two years prior tied for 11th and outright 9th in the league with Goff at qb. Stafford is very wr friendly but lets not pretend about kupp

 

being a west coast nfc team he wasn’t a household name especially here but I think he was a wr1 unless you mean wasn’t wr1 for the entire nfl 

 

as for Moore- top 3 seasons would be: 

 

65-1041-6

79-928-10

66-763-8

 

Solid yac guy who did some punt/kick returns. Not a ton but I call it out as a testament to him being able to move with the ball. 

 

Sorry that just isn't accurate.  Kupp was not seen as a true WR1 prior to the Stafford season, that was the point.  I live in LA, watch every Rams game.  When he had 92 and 94 catches, he only broke 1000 yards once and Robert Woods operated more as the WR1 role, but most people kind of felt the Rams had two WR2 guys in Woods and Kupp.  Kupp did not enter true WR1 and top end WR status until that monster year with Stafford that no one saw coming where he had 800 more yards than his best career season.  By the way, Kupp only has 2 seasons in his career over 1000 yards.

 

But see...here is the issue.  STATS don't compare styles.  You are comparing stats.  I am talking about the style of play.  Shakir and Kupp have a similar style of play and if you watch both long enough you can see it.  Shakir openly discusses studying Kupp and patterning his game off how he plays too.  Are they the exact same player no, but they have similar styles.   

 

And sorry, picking the 3 best stat lines (which are mostly mediocre) of a long career full of sub par stat lines for Moore does not at all translate into a fair comparison to Shakir.  Again, I will with extreme confidence say he will have a better career and be a better player than Lance Moore was.  He was a decent role player with a couple decent seasons in his career, but that was about it.   

 

 

Edited April 5 by Alphadawg7

[Alphadawg7]

25 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Kupp's route running was special. Shakir's route running is pretty good. He creates space after the catch, not before the catch.

 

If anything Puka Nacua is the stylistic comp you're looking for, although Nacua is 2 inches taller and his arms are 2.5 inches longer. If Shakir can be the poor man's version of what Nacua was last year that's more than satisfactory.

 

Yeah, what makes Kupp special is his sudden movement speed combined with how smart he is as a player.  

 

But, Puka Nacua is an interesting one to bring up.  Having watched him all year, I kept saying (even posted on here) that if Shakir had been in LA this year instead of Puka, he would have put up a big season too with a target load like that.  However, Puka plays bigger than Shakir, so not sure their styles line up as much as say their roles would.  I think Shakir would have filled in that role in a similar fashion statistically, but Puka does use that size in his play and is a bit more physical in his game before the catch.  Shakir is physical after the catch, but he doesn't have the size or arm length to play big before the catch.  

[NoSaint]

21 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Sorry that just isn't accurate.  Kupp was not seen as a true WR1 prior to the Stafford season, that was the point.  I live in LA, watch every Rams game.  When he had 92 and 94 catches, he only broke 1000 yards once and Robert Woods operated more as the WR1 role, but most people kind of felt the Rams had two WR2 guys in Woods and Kupp.  Kupp did not enter true WR1 and top end WR status until that monster year with Stafford that no one saw coming where he had 800 more yards than his best career season.  By the way, Kupp only has 2 seasons in his career over 1000 yards.

 

But see...here is the issue.  STATS don't compare styles.  You are comparing stats.  I am talking about the style of play.  Shakir and Kupp have a similar style of play and if you watch both long enough you can see it.  Shakir openly discusses studying Kupp and patterning his game off how he plays too.  Are they the exact same player no, but they have similar styles.   

 

And sorry, picking the 3 best stat lines of a long career full of sub par stat lines for Moore does not at all translate into a fair comparison to Shakir.  Again, I will with extreme confidence say he will have a better career and be a better player than Lance Moore was.  He was a decent role player with a couple decent seasons in his career, but that was about it.   

 

 

for lance I could add a 52 catch 8 TD season he missed 2 games during and it’s 4 out of 5 years across his peak Im bringing you (excluding one year he was out most of the season). 4 years of 50-80 catches and amassing 32 tds is a think a really solid role player. 

if that’s shakirs next 5 years he had a solid run and will be 29(?). 4 of those 5 better than his current high water mark. 

 

if toning down the lecturing from a throne, I’m a saints season ticket holder and also not just comparing stats but to a guy I watched in person weekly for those 5 years. 
 

undersized, good yac (lance did handle kicks for a bit) 4.5 speed, slippery guy as wr2-3 in an offense with playmakers at te, and rb too. 

Edited April 5 by NoSaint

[BrooklynBills]

I've always thought a good comp for Shakir was Hines Ward. Similar size right down to the short arms.

[NickelCity]

51 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Shakir's route running is pretty good. He creates space after the catch, not before the catch.

 

This is a better way to say what I was trying to. If Shakir can find openings beforehand similar to what drove Beasley's effectiveness, he'll really take off (and if the drops of yesteryear don't return). 

 

He's a good player (my definition of having arrived) and I hope he reaches the potential implied by this thread. 

Edited April 5 by NickelCity

[Alphadawg7]

18 minutes ago, Juice_32 said:

I feel like you’re usually spot on with these kinds of posts, so I’m in! 

 

Thanks, that is mainly because I have only done them when I had a very strong conviction about the topic I was discussing.  If you haven't already, urge you to just watch the highlights of Shakir this season in my OP.  I get highlight reels can make anyone look good, but these are not just routine plays he is making and he was the most reliable target on the team to boot.  You can see the route running, the soft hands, the intelligence and quick feet to break off and get open for Josh to make a big play to him when Josh is moving around to extend a play, the toughness and speed after the catch, the way he gets extra yards on almost every catch, his great feet along the sidelines, etc.  

 

We will see...but yeah, I just feel it again with him and comfortable putting that out there with confidence again.  

 

[BullBuchanan]

I think we already saw him arrive last year. It was pretty clear he could handle volume then, he just didn't get it.

I really like the kid, and have since we drafted him and I looked into how he played at Boise. Long term, I think he's a #2, but he could be one of those guys viewed like a 1B.

With no other competition on the roster, I fully expect him to get at least very close to 1k if not exceed it. It remains to be seen what happens when he goes against #1 CBs instead of #3/#4, but he won't be focused all game.

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

for lance I could add a 52 catch 8 TD season he missed 2 games during and it’s 4 out of 5 years across his peak Im bringing you (excluding one year he was out most of the season). 4 years of 50-80 catches and amassing 32 tds is a think a really solid role player. 
 

if toning down the lecturing from a throne, I’m a saints season ticket holder and also not just comparing stats but to a guy I watched in person weekly for those 5 years. 
 

undersized, good yac (lance did handle kicks for a bit) 4.5 speed, slippery guy as wr2-3 in an offense with playmakers at te, and rb too. 

 

Its all good, and to be clear, I am not saying you are wrong about Lance.  I am more saying I think you are wrong on limiting Shakirs potential to be what Lance was.  Not saying Lance Moore was a scrub, but he was never more than a role player most of his career.  Nothing against Lance Moore, but I do confidently believe Shakir has a higher ceiling than Moore and will have the better career.  Doesn't mean Lance had a bad career, I just firmly believe Shakir has a higher ceiling than that.  

 

I will give you this...I would say I think Shakirs floor is more in line with Lance Moore.  I think Shakir already showed he can handle that type of role last year moving forward.  Where we differ is that I think his ceiling is higher than that and I have confidence he is going to show that.  

[NoSaint]

13 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Its all good, and to be clear, I am not saying you are wrong about Lance.  I am more saying I think you are wrong on limiting Shakirs potential to be what Lance was.  Not saying Lance Moore was a scrub, but he was never more than a role player most of his career.  Nothing against Lance Moore, but I do confidently believe Shakir has a higher ceiling than Moore and will have the better career.  Doesn't mean Lance had a bad career, I just firmly believe Shakir has a higher ceiling than that.  

 

I will give you this...I would say I think Shakirs floor is more in line with Lance Moore.  I think Shakir already showed he can handle that type of role last year moving forward.  Where we differ is that I think his ceiling is higher than that and I have confidence he is going to show that.  

I suppose by that standard you think lance produced fully to his own ceiling? 
 

I think similarly as a guy that had to earn his reps both based on draft status and a crowded offense with both WR but also very good TE and pass catchers out of the backfield he probably had untapped potential  in his peak. 
 

if we draft a major wr (especially trade up)  Shakir will be WR3 with Kincaid and cook also taking noteworthy targets. He could play VERY well and not get beyond that 60 catch 900 yard and 8 TD range. 
 

do that 4-5 years (maybe a little more with the longer season!), go to another team and sunset there would be an excellent career for the guy. 

and if we trade up for a wr that’s probably not an unfair look at his role behind that guy and Kincaid the next few years 

 

Edited April 5 by NoSaint

[Alphadawg7]

12 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

I suppose by that standard you think lance produced fully to his own ceiling? 
 

I think similarly as a guy that had to earn his reps both based on draft status and a crowded offense with both WR but also very good TE and pass catchers out of the backfield he probably had untapped potential  in his peak. 
 

if we draft a major wr (especially trade up)  Shakir will be WR3 with Kincaid and cook also taking noteworthy targets. He could play VERY well and not get beyond that 60 catch 900 yard and 8 TD range. 

 

 

 

I don't disagree with your premise here or the impact a rookie may have.  Just prior to the Diggs trade, I was asked by a poster here to layout what I thought of Shakir.  And I said I confidently will say he can be a 1000+ yard WR this year on a number of teams in the NFL, but he will likely never be in Buffalo as long as Diggs is here because of the 160 targets Diggs commands every year.  

 

You can't catch what isn't thrown to you, and outside of Diggs we still had Samuel, Kincaid, Cook, etc who will all get their own targets.  So felt it was unlikely anyone outside of Diggs would breach 1000 yards with so many mouths to feed and Diggs target share.  

 

However, now we are post Diggs era earlier than expected.  Shakir is now the only WR on the team with any rapport and experience with Josh.  And we are coming off a year where Shakir was arguably the best WR down the stretch and in the playoffs and he led the team in receiving over that stretch.  So there is going to be a bigger role and confidence to start the season unlike last year where he was only on the field 11% of the snaps early in the season under Dorsey (who is a fool).  

 

We also know that McD and this team prefer to ease Rookies along rather than lean on them hard out the gate.  While I think it is plausible that we will see a rookie start as early as week 1 this year, I don't think it is plausible that he will see any where near Diggs target share.  But there is still Samuel too along with Kincaid, Knox, and Cook too.  So I think the floor for targets for Shakir is probably 60 targets and the ceiling is probably 120 targets this year with how many mouths we have to feed.  

 

Personally, I think he will finish personally between 90 and 110 targets in a spread the ball around offense, and based on last year, just 90 targets would have put him over 1200 yards with the level of efficiency he played with.    

 

 

Edited April 5 by Alphadawg7

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I don't disagree with your premise here or the impact a rookie may have.  Just prior to the Diggs trade, I was asked by a poster here to layout what I thought of Shakir.  And I said I confidently will say he can be a 1000+ yard WR this year on a number of teams in the NFL, but he will likely never be in Buffalo as long as Diggs is here because of the 160 targets Diggs commands every year.  

 

You can't catch what isn't thrown to you, and outside of Diggs we still had Samuel, Kincaid, Cook, etc who will all get their own targets.  So felt it was unlikely anyone outside of Diggs would breach 1000 yards with so many mouths to feed and Diggs target share.  

 

However, now we are post Diggs era earlier than expected.  Shakir is now the only WR on the team with any rapport and experience with Josh.  And we are coming off a year where Shakir was arguably the best WR down the stretch and in the playoffs and he led the team in receiving over that stretch.  So there is going to be a bigger role and confidence to start the season unlike last year where he was only on the field 11% of the snaps early in the season under Dorsey (who is a fool).  

 

We also know that McD and this team prefer to ease Rookies along rather than lean on them hard out the gate.  While I think it is plausible that we will see a rookie start as early as week 1 this year, I don't think it is plausible that he will see any where near Diggs target share.  But there is still Samuel too along with Kincaid, Knox, and Cook too.  So I think the floor for targets for Shakir is probably 60 targets and the ceiling is probably 120 targets this year with how many mouths we have to feed.  

 

Personally, I think he will finish personally between 90 and 110 targets in a spread the ball around offense, and based on last year, just 90 targets would have put him over 1200 yards with the level of efficiency he played with.    

 

 

You know there were only 12 guys in the whole league that went over 1200 yards last year right

 

Shakir's a good third option. Let's not overcomplicate this

[Alphadawg7]

35 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

You know there were only 12 guys in the whole league that went over 1200 yards last year right

 

Shakir's a good third option. Let's not overcomplicate this

I didn’t say he’s getting to 1200 yards, I said based on his efficiency last year he would have reached 1200 yards on 90 targets.  

[Comebackkid]

what i notice watching the video that sets him apart from our other receivers is this.

 

when he has to turn is body to catch the ball and then turn back around and run his pivot point is very small..especially on the edge which 

makes him a lot more elusive.    watch others and they make a looping turn and get takin down. 

 

also good power and balance lets him bounce off tackles. 

 

Edited April 5 by Comebackkid

[Chandler#81]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

As you can see by the responses here...most still see him as more of a role player as I was saying.  Nothing wrong with that, but this is what I mean when I say I believe everyone is about to see the arrival of Shakir as more than just a role player many think he is.

I’ve been a big proponent of him as well. He clearly won WR2 last year, making Davis expendable. WR1? I’m not so sure, but he’s a starter and currently Allen’s favorite.

Thats good enough for me!

[WyoAZBillfan]

Watching teams like WY, MT, And Boise. I agree with most all what your saying. I think given the chance, much like 17 he will shine. 

[Mat68]

Shakir, Kincaid and Cook will be the primary attack.  Allen was the most efficient while targeting them.  I could see a break out year for Shakir and Kincaid. 

[davefan66]

1 hour ago, Comebackkid said:

what i notice watching the video that sets him apart from our other receivers is this.

 

when he has to turn is body to catch the ball and then turn back around and run his pivot point is very small..especially on the edge which 

makes me a lot more elusive.    watch others and they make a looping turn and get takin down. 

 

also good power and balance lets him bounce off tackles. 

 

He is also very good about catching the ball and immediately getting it into a protected position.  Sounds goofy but watching the tape he engulfs the ball.  Dude just knows how to catch the ball.

 

He has great football awareness. Knows where the defenders are and has the ability to make immediate football moves. Ability to slip and slide and make extra yards.  Good sideline awareness.  
 

I think came on strong last year.  That wouldn’t be the sole reason we traded Diggs, but certainly gave the Bills some peace of mind.

[JerseyBills]

We did under Brady. He was clearly the best WR on the field under him

[Pete]

Shakir was the Bills leading WR the last 12 weeks.