Kick the Ball in Overtime

[Pokebball]

5 minutes ago, mannc said:

That's a cop-out.  All you have to do is look at college football to know that the team that has the ball second in that situation has a HUGE advantage.  I know the college rules are a little different, but the principle is the same:  Much better to know what you need to do on your first possession and potentially have the advantage of utilizing a four-down offense.  In fact, the advantage might be even more pronounced under the NFL rules because the offense has the advantage of playing four-down football the entire length of the field, not just from the opponent's 25 yard line.   

The huge difference, comparing to college overtime, is that you can argue that you begin your possession with a FG in the bag.

[ExiledInIllinois]

In a way... It's like baseball with last ups... BUT twist is, it flip flops to sudden death after the first inning. 😆 

 

So what's the point of all this? Either continue to match or lose... Turnovers can still end games... OR just go back to damn coin flip.

 

Same result.  In Bills-Chiefs game that precipitated this rule change,  Even if Josh & Bills score, Chiefs & Mahomes is in position with 3rd up and sudden death. Able to walk-off.  What's the point?

 

Just go to the college rules.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 12 by ExiledInIllinois

[Chaos]

38 minutes ago, BillMafia716ix said:

I called it. Now it’s coming out that the players didn’t even know the rules. What a failure by the coaching staff 

The college rules keep alternating possessions. It never converts to sudden death. College rules are irrelevant due to that difference. 

[ExiledInIllinois]

2 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

The huge difference, comparing to college overtime, is that you can argue that you begin your possession with a FG in the bag.

AND it basically cancels FG out of equation.

[ExWNYer]

10 minutes ago, mannc said:

That's a cop-out.  All you have to do is look at college football to know that the team that has the ball second in that situation has a HUGE advantage.  I know the college rules are a little different, but the principle is the same:  Much better to know what you need to do on your first possession and potentially have the advantage of utilizing a four-down offense.  In fact, the advantage might be even more pronounced under the NFL rules because the offense has the advantage of playing four-down football the entire length of the field, not just from the opponent's 25 yard line.   

 

Your convictions are just that, yours. They are neither right nor wrong.

[ExiledInIllinois]

Just now, Chaos said:

The college rules keep alternating possessions. It never converts to sudden death. College rules are irrelevant due to that difference. 

Yup. That's why the rule change in NFL achieved nothing. 

 

Sudden death is an old school concept.  Back in day, games were slugfest. Low scoring. Lots ended in ties. Even OT could end in ties. How many games really go to OT anyway and end in ties. Few.

 

Just play it out like basketball. The games will end. No new coin toss.

[mannc]

8 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

The huge difference, comparing to college overtime, is that you can argue that you begin your possession with a FG in the bag.

Both teams have that "advantage" in college. 

 

In the NFL, the team that has the ball first is forced to play "conservative" three-down football the entire length of the field and, if they manage to score, the other team gets to play four-down offensive football.  Against a QB like Mahomes, that's game over.  

5 minutes ago, ExWNYer said:

 

Your convictions are just that, yours. They are neither right nor wrong.

What a bizarre comment.  Care to address the substance of what I said, you know, with logic?

[BBFL]

1 hour ago, djp14150 said:

you don’t try to run on 3rd and long or 2nd and over 10.  I can’t find rankings of 3rd and long success rates. I think buf snd kc are near the top.

Not understanding the point you’re making… They didn’t. In that time frame I referenced all 5 were on 1st down or 2nd down w/ 10 or < …. 🤷‍♂️

CMC had 27 yards on 7 attempts in their first 3 drives. 19 total plays on them. 
 

That’s 36% of the plays being a run by CMC and you had success barring the fumble. Coupled that with a 3.8 YPC is the reason why it’s perplexing they went away from that.

 

You talk about success and rankings et cetera but the stats in that game show they didn’t run on 2nd/3rd and long but we’re successful period when they chose to run. 
 

I like Shannahan but his choices directly led to keeping KC hanging around long enough. You lost your last SB appearance against the same by doing the same thing… Mostert ripped off a massive run on their penultimate drive which afterward he chose to make Jimmy G sling the ball 6 times in a row after that play… Turning the ball over on downs via a sack. Their final drive they had to throw the ball due to time constraints and ended up with an INT to ice it. 
 

Kyle’s a heck of a coach but there’s a lot of questions marks for his decisions on the field without even factoring the OT coin toss…

 

Sorry but they blew it being up 10, not running the ball to try and burn some clock and giving Mahomes and the Chiefs some semblance of hope. 
 

2019 season they were the #2 rushing team behind Baltimore but decided to lean on the pass in the biggest game of the season.

 

2023 season, #3 team in rushing with the league leader by 300 yards!!!! And again, with a lead they decided to lean on the pass to pull ahead. Mental. 
 

The stats for the year prove they were the most successful team in a 22 personnel running the ball against a heavy box so the excuse people say “they couldn’t run on KC” was bogus. See the point about the stats over the first 3 drives before the abandoned the run game. 
 

 

 

Edited February 12 by BBFL

[Pokebball]

11 minutes ago, mannc said:

Both teams have that "advantage" in college. 

That of course wasn't the point. In these new NFL rules, a FG isn't in the bag. A team has to drive the length of the field to score either way.

 

If giving Mahomes 4 downs every series is such a sure thing, why doesn't KC do that all game long? 

 

I'm not arguing one way or the other with these new NFL rules. I'm simply saying having to drive the entire field is a thing.

[mannc]

3 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

That of course wasn't the point. In these new NFL rules, a FG isn't in the bag. A team has to drive the length of the field to score either way.

 

If giving Mahomes 4 downs every series is such a sure thing, why doesn't KC do that all game long? 

 

I'm not arguing one way or the other with these new NFL rules. I'm simply saying having to drive the entire field is a thing.

You don't see a distinct advantage in having four plays to make a first down instead of just three?

[QCity]

 

Reid’s comments suggest there’s no obvious consensus among coaches about what to do, but if the Chiefs had won the toss, they were prepared to kick off and play defense first.

 

“We talked for two weeks about new overtime rules,” defensive tackle Chris Jones said. “Give the ball to the opponent. If we score, we go for 2.”

[ExiledInIllinois]

Yeah... It's just plain dumb to not nor kick. Did Shanny remember that D can score or get a turnover? Then it becomes sudden death or game over?

 

Why D always win championships. KC's D won it. They held them to a FG.

[FilthyBeast]

We can sit here and question the decision all offseason, but the bottom line in hindsight it's just another example of the Chiefs waiting for an opposing team to blink first and piss all over themselves just like the Patriots and Brady did the greater part of 20 years in New England.

 

The reality though is that the game should have never come to overtime if the 49ers didn't make key mistakes from the get go (i.e. turnover on first drive, missed extra point, etc). The margin of error against Mahomes is still virtually nonexistent and the only way you beat him in the playoffs is if you have the ball last and score the winning points as the clock reaches zero.

[pennstate10]

14 hours ago, BuffaloButt said:

Bills vs Eagles 2.0 game.  

In college they always let the other team start with the ball.  It's the smart way to play it, always!!

 

49ers definitely made the wrong call. 
 

Bills Eagles not. So clear. 
 

Rules in regular season are different, and Bills had the win in hand if Davis turned the right way. 
 

[Chaos]

47 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

Yup. That's why the rule change in NFL achieved nothing. 

 

Sudden death is an old school concept.  Back in day, games were slugfest. Low scoring. Lots ended in ties. Even OT could end in ties. How many games really go to OT anyway and end in ties. Few.

 

Just play it out like basketball. The games will end. No new coin toss.

Just starting quarter five handing the transition exactly the same as the transition form quarter 3 to quarter 4,

continuous play would also be my pick, 

[Pokebball]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

You don't see a distinct advantage in having four plays to make a first down instead of just three?

Why then, doesn't KC do that every series, all game long?

 

The answer, of course, the odds/risk doesn't support doing so.

Edited February 12 by Pokebball

[mannc]

6 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

Why then, doesn't KC do that every series, all game long?

 

The answer, of course, the odds/risk doesn't support doing so.

I can't believe I really have to argue this point...having four chances to get a first down makes it easier to score than than having only three.  Teams don't do it all game long because in certain circumstances--depending on field position, number of yards needed to pick up the first, and the score of the game--punting makes more sense.  There simply is no question that an offense has a better chance of scoring on any given series if they have four plays to work with instead of three.  

[QCity]

11 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

Why then, doesn't KC do that every series, all game long?

 

 

Because the game doesn't end in the 1st quarter if you go 4-and-out.

[Pokebball]

26 minutes ago, mannc said:

I can't believe I really have to argue this point...having four chances to get a first down makes it easier to score than than having only three.  Teams don't do it all game long because in certain circumstances--depending on field position, number of yards needed to pick up the first, and the score of the game--punting makes more sense.  There simply is no question that an offense has a better chance of scoring on any given series if they have four plays to work with instead of three.  

I haven't seen anyone arguing the point that 4 tries is strong than 3. Thanks for admitting that punting is better than 4 tries.

27 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

Because the game doesn't end in the 1st quarter if you go 4-and-out.

who said it did?

[BarleyNY]

15 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

You win the toss you score a TD or go for it.  Kicking a FG just isn't a game winning plan in OT.  Especially against Mahommes.

 

I only have one thought on why this could have made some sense. KS may have intended to go for 2 after a TD. That would have them playing for a FG on their second possession if KC matched them. I think there’s merit to taking the initiative in that situation rather than letting your opponent dictate the outcome with their two point try. The question then becomes “Why didn’t they go for it on fourth down?” Maybe the distance was too great and the math said to kick the FG, but it had to be close. I think if that is your plan then you have to go for it. 

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, mannc said:

You don't see a distinct advantage in having four plays to make a first down instead of just three?

There was nothing stopping the 49ers from treating every new set of downs as four down territory on the first drive of overtime.

[mannc]

6 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

There was nothing stopping the 49ers from treating every new set of downs as four down territory on the first drive of overtime.

That’s true, but if they fail to convert one time, the game’s over.  Why not just take the ball second?

[Albany,n.y.]

16 hours ago, VaMilBill said:

I have no idea why any coach would take the ball first in overtime in the playoffs. If your defense is supposedly that good and you trust them to get a stop, kick it. Let them get the stop, force a punt and get better field position and higher chances for getting the requisite yards for a FG 

 

If your defense stinks and will just allow a TD anyways, you know exactly what you need on offense and have four downs per set of downs to achieve it. Plus if you do score a TD, and your defense stinks, just go for 2 and win the game with your offense and don’t give the other team another chance once it goes to sudden death. 
 

It doesn’t seem like a cosmic idea to me. What do I know. 

Very simple answer why you always take the ball: If both teams don't score on the 1st drive, you have a distinct advantage in number of possessions & are much more likely to win the game.  On the 1st 3 possessions you have 2 chances to score where if you defer, you may only have one.  No coach in his right mind would give away that advantage.  

[Doc Brown]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

That’s true, but if they fail to convert one time, the game’s over.  Why not just take the ball second?

Same goes for the Chiefs on their first possession.  The sudden death aspect on the third possession is too big of an advantage not to take the ball first imho.

[Pokebball]

Great conversation on strategy in this thread. I enjoyed it.

[Albany,n.y.]

12 hours ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

 

Always best to take "last ups." You gain more information on what you need to win. They let KC walk them off. Inexcusable given they had coin toss. 

 

You'd think a home team in baseball would say: "Oh no, you're the visitor, you go last." LoL...

 

Maybe Shanahan was just being polite. 😆 

 

I really hope he knew how the OT rules in the playoffs differed from regular season. Even if 1st OT quarter ended, it just goes to OT quarter #2 and so on!

 

Why do you think Vinovich stated emphatically: "This is like the start of a new game."

 

Shanahan is an idiot.  😆 

This isn't baseball.  The baseball equivalent is if the road team scores in the top of the 11th, the game ends.  In baseball the home team still gets the bottom of the 11th, in football the team that defers doesn't get a 2nd chance if the receiving team scores on the 2nd possession.  Huge difference between baseball & the NFL.  

[mannc]

13 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Same goes for the Chiefs on their first possession.  The sudden death aspect on the third possession is too big of an advantage not to take the ball first imho.

Except the Chiefs absolutely knew they had to score at least three points on their drive.  Knowing exactly what you need is a huge advantage.  Way too many ifs to worry about that third possession.  

[ExiledInIllinois]

44 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

This isn't baseball.  The baseball equivalent is if the road team scores in the top of the 11th, the game ends.  In baseball the home team still gets the bottom of the 11th, in football the team that defers doesn't get a 2nd chance if the receiving team scores on the 2nd possession.  Huge difference between baseball & the NFL.  

Yeah. The switch to sudden death is after the 1st inning. 😆 

 

How stupid.  Game is predicated on an opening coin toss and a possible OT coin toss... 😕 

Correction okay after the 10th inning. Still dumb.

[VaMilBill]

3 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Very simple answer why you always take the ball: If both teams don't score on the 1st drive, you have a distinct advantage in number of possessions & are much more likely to win the game.  On the 1st 3 possessions you have 2 chances to score where if you defer, you may only have one.  No coach in his right mind would give away that advantage.  

If you’re going against Patrick Mahomes you don’t do that. 

[djp14150]

6 hours ago, BBFL said:

Not understanding the point you’re making… They didn’t. In that time frame I referenced all 5 were on 1st down or 2nd down w/ 10 or < …. 🤷‍♂️

CMC had 27 yards on 7 attempts in their first 3 drives. 19 total plays on them. 
 

That’s 36% of the plays being a run by CMC and you had success barring the fumble. Coupled that with a 3.8 YPC is the reason why it’s perplexing they went away from that.

 

You talk about success and rankings et cetera but the stats in that game show they didn’t run on 2nd/3rd and long but we’re successful period when they chose to run. 
 

I like Shannahan but his choices directly led to keeping KC hanging around long enough. You lost your last SB appearance against the same by doing the same thing… Mostert ripped off a massive run on their penultimate drive which afterward he chose to make Jimmy G sling the ball 6 times in a row after that play… Turning the ball over on downs via a sack. Their final drive they had to throw the ball due to time constraints and ended up with an INT to ice it. 
 

Kyle’s a heck of a coach but there’s a lot of questions marks for his decisions on the field without even factoring the OT coin toss…

 

Sorry but they blew it being up 10, not running the ball to try and burn some clock and giving Mahomes and the Chiefs some semblance of hope. 
 

2019 season they were the #2 rushing team behind Baltimore but decided to lean on the pass in the biggest game of the season.

 

2023 season, #3 team in rushing with the league leader by 300 yards!!!! And again, with a lead they decided to lean on the pass to pull ahead. Mental. 
 

The stats for the year prove they were the most successful team in a 22 personnel running the ball against a heavy box so the excuse people say “they couldn’t run on KC” was bogus. See the point about the stats over the first 3 drives before the abandoned the run game. 
 

 

 

Shanahan knows if the teams are playing 8 in the box that he will look to throw. The team has a decent group of receivers.  They need play action. They were a full ground and pond team.