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Is Mahomes at Brady Levels?


Mikie2times

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2 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Allen is Phillip Rivers. Maybe he can pop out 7 kids so he can be known for more than being the guy that always loses in the playoffs

 

Allen's comp if we are talking careers and not playing style, is Drew Brees. 

 

To my knowledge, only one other QB in NFL history has had 3 straight 40+ TD seasons and that was Drew Brees. Allen has 4 now, breaking his tie with Brees. Brees also never won a league MVP despite a couple of monster statistical seasons. Brees also didn't make it to his one and only Super Bowl until his 9th year in the league. 

 

I've seen the Rivers comp thrown around, but I think that is a disservice to Allen. Rivers is a borderline HOF'er after a 17 year career. Allen is a borderline HOF'er after six seasons. In 17 seasons, Rivers has a 5-7 playoff record. After only six seasons, Allen has a 5-5 playoff record. I can't even imagine how horribly south things would have to go for Allen and the Bills if Allen were to only add two more playoff games to the resume over the next 10 years. 

 

Also, Rivers playoff passer rating is 10 points lower than his regular season passer rating. Allen's post season passer rating is 8 points higher than his regular season passer rating. 

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Mahomes is better than Brady.  Not much to debate.   He's got Brady level accuracy but also he's mobile and elusive.   Might not be at Brady level at reading defenses but the rest makes up for it.   Josh is better but has never had the same level supporting cast.

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Some things are better off not discussed, just saying....

 But since you brought it up, If you compare the first 7 years, Mahomes kind of blows Brady away, sure they are close in team success but Mahomes was a bigger factor than Brady was in those years.   Those Patriots teams were really well rounded with a great defense and run game.  Brady was great but never had to light things up with his arm, I would say game manager to a point.

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7 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Yawn … we’ll see in about 14 more years. 


Exactly.  What Brady accomplished is truly remarkable.  I know people on the board hate Brady, but he really is the GOAT.  Mahomes has a ways to go to be placed in that space.  He is remarkable and the best current player in the NFL.

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5 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

Can he get to 40? I mean that’s not even that abnormal at this point. 

20 + 23 (his first season) is 43. Yeah I'd say that's abnormal and 99% of players won't get there

4 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Allen's comp if we are talking careers and not playing style, is Drew Brees. 

 

To my knowledge, only one other QB in NFL history has had 3 straight 40+ TD seasons and that was Drew Brees. Allen has 4 now, breaking his tie with Brees. Brees also never won a league MVP despite a couple of monster statistical seasons. Brees also didn't make it to his one and only Super Bowl until his 9th year in the league. 

 

I've seen the Rivers comp thrown around, but I think that is a disservice to Allen. Rivers is a borderline HOF'er after a 17 year career. Allen is a borderline HOF'er after six seasons. In 17 seasons, Rivers has a 5-7 playoff record. After only six seasons, Allen has a 5-5 playoff record. I can't even imagine how horribly south things would have to go for Allen and the Bills if Allen were to only add two more playoff games to the resume over the next 10 years. 

 

Also, Rivers playoff passer rating is 10 points lower than his regular season passer rating. Allen's post season passer rating is 8 points higher than his regular season passer rating. 

You are assuming Josh wants to play 10 more years. They asked him on a podcast and he says he goes back and forth if he wants to play that long and that the style he plays he knows his career will be shorter. Cam Newton was toast by age 32. Josh might only have 4-5 more years

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9 hours ago, zow2 said:

The recent dynasties included an all-world QB and an all-world TE

 

Brady had Gronk

Mahomes has Kelce

 

Allen - hopefully Kincaid becomes the centerpiece. He has the ability.

 

 

 

The Pats had a Belichick coached defense. The Chiefs have Spags. Also, between Belichick, Reid, McDermott. One of them doesn't belong with the other two as far as coaching goes. I think we know who the odd man out is.

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58 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

The Pats had a Belichick coached defense. The Chiefs have Spags. Also, between Belichick, Reid, McDermott. One of them doesn't belong with the other two as far as coaching goes. I think we know who the odd man out is.

 

For sure McDermott isn't Belichick or Reid. They are two of the greatest coaches of all time. But they aren't the only guys to have won Superbowls in the past two decades.

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3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

For sure McDermott isn't Belichick or Reid. They are two of the greatest coaches of all time. But they aren't the only guys to have won Superbowls in the past two decades.

 

As far as dynasties go, they are along with Chuck Knoll and Bill Walsh in the 70's and 80's.

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3 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

 

You are assuming Josh wants to play 10 more years. They asked him on a podcast and he says he goes back and forth if he wants to play that long and that the style he plays he knows his career will be shorter. Cam Newton was toast by age 32. Josh might only have 4-5 more years

I'm not sure that's relevant in the discussion of whether Allen's career is more like Rivers or more like Brees. Even if Allen for some reason only has a 10 year career he will have accomplished more than Rivers did in a 17 year career. Like I said, Allen is a border line HOF'er now after just six seasons in the league. He's likely a lock after next season. 

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3 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:


Exactly.  What Brady accomplished is truly remarkable.  I know people on the board hate Brady, but he really is the GOAT.  Mahomes has a ways to go to be placed in that space.  He is remarkable and the best current player in the NFL.

 

Brady also has the head to head Super Bowl win. Mahomes is probably going to need 8 rings to clearly pass the GOAT. That means he'll probably need to go to about 12 Super Bowls. I sure hope he doesn't come close to that as long as Allen is still playing. 

 

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32 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I'm not sure that's relevant in the discussion of whether Allen's career is more like Rivers or more like Brees. Even if Allen for some reason only has a 10 year career he will have accomplished more than Rivers did in a 17 year career. Like I said, Allen is a border line HOF'er now after just six seasons in the league. He's likely a lock after next season. 

What has Allen accomplished over Rivers?

 

I think you guys are assuming we will continue to be good with basically half the team in free agency or that Allen will play significantly longer and at a higher level than other "mobile" quarterbacks.

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Fair question. I think the fairest way to compare the early careers of the two QB's is to single out River's first 4 years as a starting QB, he sat for his first two years and took over a ready to win now team. Allen, of course was still developing his first two seasons in the league into the QB he would become over the last four seasons.

 

Efficiency wise they were actually the same QB in the regular season through prime four years of each players six first seasons. They had the exact same passer rating of 96.3

 

Both also had respectable QBR's during this time period all though I would say Allen has the clear edge as Rivers did have one season with a sub 60 QBR and Allen's QBR's are pretty consistently higher than Rivers. 

 

Rivers QBR seasons: 

2006: 67

2007: 55

2008: 63

2009:  77

 

Allen QBR seasons:

2020: 77

2021: 61

2022: 73

2023: 70

 

Phillip Rivers first four seasons starting, years 3-6 in the league:

64 games

96.3 regular season passer rating

14803 passing yards

216 rushing yards

15,019 total yards

3,755 yards per 16 game season

105 passing TDs

2 rushing TD's

107 Total TD's

44 INT's

33 fumbles

 

 

Josh Allen 2020-2023

66 games 

96.3 regular season passer rating

17,540 passing yards

2,470 rushing yards

20,010 total yards

4,851 yards per 16 game season

137 passing TD's 

37 rushing/receiving TD's

174 Total TD's

57 Interceptions

37 fumbles

 

What pops is the volume Allen has put up. The game was different back in 2006-2009 but was it so different that Allen would average 1,100 more yards per season on average? And Allen's 174 total TD's over a 4 year stretch is NFL record I think. Rivers of course didn't have to put up huge numbers because they relied on LT early in Rivers career. But that shouldn't be a knock on Allen. And I am not so sure Rivers became a better QB both by volume and efficiency once that running game with LT went away. 

 

Allen also really separates himself from Rivers in post season performance.  Through each players first six seasons in the league Allen is 5-5, Rivers was 3-4. Rivers had 8 passing TD's to 9 INT's with probably a sub 80 passer rating in the playoffs.  Josh Allen through his first six seasons, 21 passing TD's to 4 INT's and 100 passer rating. 

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13 hours ago, Rigotz said:

Can we put the Mahomes threads in a different forum please?

 

He doesn’t play for the Bills. Yes he’s good. Yes Josh is also good. Yes he is beatable. Yes he has beaten the Bills in the playoffs often.

 

Cool.


Why??

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Brady is the most consistent player I've ever watched. That's what made him great. Obviously QBs like Allen and Mahomes can make plays that Brady can only dream of, but they also make mistakes he would never make.

 

If you're starting a team with very little supporting talent on offense I would take Mahomes because he can do more with less. But starting a team with decent or better supporting talent I would take Brady over any other QB in history.

 

Fun fact about the two - Brady was the opposing QB in Mahomes' first regular season loss, first playoff loss, and first Super Bowl loss. That will make a nice trivia question 20 years from now.

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13 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

According to those stats, so is Allen.  But the BILLS haven't been as good as the Pats or Chiefs.

The only stats that count are championships and Allen is N/A in that category.

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