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Why is it so hard for fans to admit reality?


oldmanfan

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11 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

The reality is we were lucky yesterday.  Josh was bad Josh until the last drive.  Cook had a pivotal fumble.  The defense let a guy with no experience in the league almost win the game for the Bolts.  The only guy that played really well was Oliver.  
 

Just admit they sucked yesterday and got lucky.  They won’t be that bad every game; I suspect they’ll squish the Fish like Josh always does.  But they sucked yesterday and have too many times this year against inferior competition and that’s why they’re in the position they’re in.

Here's some clouds for you to yell at: 

 

clouds GIF

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1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

OP apparently is a person that refuses to admit luck plays a much larger part in wins, losses and teams making the playoffs than one would like to admit.

For playoffs yes luck plays a big part. As far as winning a Super Bowl, the best teams for the most part end up in the game. The Giants winning as a 9-7 or wildcard team is rare. 

@Successwhat's your issue? This team is not as good as many think they are. Truth hurts. 

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5 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

For playoffs yes luck plays a big part. As far as winning a Super Bowl, the best teams for the most part end up in the game. The Giants winning as a 9-7 or wildcard team is rare. 

@Successwhat's your issue? This team is not as good as many think they are. Truth hurts. 

 

You mean other than when teams drop giftwrapped game ending INTs that allow a team to advance when they should have lost like when the Rams beat the 49ers and went on to win the super bowl?

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7 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

For playoffs yes luck plays a big part. As far as winning a Super Bowl, the best teams for the most part end up in the game. The Giants winning as a 9-7 or wildcard team is rare. 

@Successwhat's your issue? This team is not as good as many think they are. Truth hurts. 

 

If people want to be relentlessly negative, I don't really have a problem w/ it. But I'm not down w/ eyerolling or giving the thumbs down on posts that are more positive.

 

We disagree on what this team is.  They're inconsistent - but when they're on their game, they're as good as any team.

 

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11 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

The reality is we were lucky yesterday.  Josh was bad Josh until the last drive.  Cook had a pivotal fumble.  The defense let a guy with no experience in the league almost win the game for the Bolts.  The only guy that played really well was Oliver.  
 

Just admit they sucked yesterday and got lucky.  They won’t be that bad every game; I suspect they’ll squish the Fish like Josh always does.  But they sucked yesterday and have too many times this year against inferior competition and that’s why they’re in the position they’re in.

The passing game is lethargic right now.

 

It’s not a well oiled machine throwing the ball.

 

On defense, have to hope Epenesa can get healthy, so that Von can take a seat on the bench.

 

Have to hope DaQuan can come back close to 85% - 90% and give the line a boost. 
 

And I will agree with you that the local media was taking victory laps all week and predicting Super Bowl runs. 

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13 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

For playoffs yes luck plays a big part. As far as winning a Super Bowl, the best teams for the most part end up in the game. The Giants winning as a 9-7 or wildcard team is rare. 

@Successwhat's your issue? This team is not as good as many think they are. Truth hurts. 

 

Yes...and typically happens when a team that is actually far better than their record has a few things go against them during the year but manages to get in.

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1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

Yes...and typically happens when a team that is actually far better than their record has a few things go against them during the year but manages to get in.

I would say with our consistency issues it's certainly debatable how "good" we actually are. It's not like we have a lot of postseason success. All it takes is one inconsistent effort and we are out. I think people get excited about Buffalo based on how average the AFC has been as whole so they think what happens if they "get it together"? Well, what happens if this is just who we are when we have it together? Despite mountains of evidence that suggests that could be the case, people are choosing fairy tales with McD and concepts like Dorsey being the sole reason we can't win close games. The playoffs have been a failure on both sides of the ball and if you want to assign a third side of the ball to coaching, they have been a failure at all three levels. Why is it going to be different? If the answer is people choosing an optimistic path I don't blame them. If the answer is we have some sort of actual data or indicator outside maybe net point differential, I can argue that all day. This narrative of us being dangerous to win it all was created by people, not evidence that we have somehow figured out areas we have been historically awful in. 

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5 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I would say with our consistency issues it's certainly debatable how "good" we actually are. It's not like we have a lot of postseason success. All it takes is one inconsistent effort and we are out. I think people get excited about Buffalo based on how average the AFC has been as whole so they think what happens if they "get it together"? Well, what happens if this is just who we are when we have it together? Despite mountains of evidence that suggests that could be the case, people are choosing fairy tales with McD and concepts like Dorsey being the sole reason we can't win close games. The playoffs have been a failure on both sides of the ball and if you want to assign a third side of the ball to coaching, they have been a failure at all three levels. Why is it going to be different? If the answer is people choosing an optimistic path I don't blame them. If the answer is we have some sort of actual data or indicator outside maybe net point differential, I can argue that all day. This narrative of us being dangerous to win it all was created by people, not evidence that we have somehow figured out areas we have been historically awful in. 

 

Well...not really. Pretty much every advanced metric has the Bills as a top 5 team. DVOA they were 3rd, SOS 5th, a few others 4th or 5th as well.

 

A team that hasn't lost a regular season game by more than 6 points in over 2 full years now seems pretty good to me. That is an absurdly long time to maintain that level of play.

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10 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I would say with our consistency issues it's certainly debatable how "good" we actually are. It's not like we have a lot of postseason success. All it takes is one inconsistent effort and we are out. I think people get excited about Buffalo based on how average the AFC has been as whole so they think what happens if they "get it together"? Well, what happens if this is just who we are when we have it together? Despite mountains of evidence that suggests that could be the case, people are choosing fairy tales with McD and concepts like Dorsey being the sole reason we can't win close games. The playoffs have been a failure on both sides of the ball and if you want to assign a third side of the ball to coaching, they have been a failure at all three levels. Why is it going to be different? If the answer is people choosing an optimistic path I don't blame them. If the answer is we have some sort of actual data or indicator outside maybe net point differential, I can argue that all day. This narrative of us being dangerous to win it all was created by people, not evidence that we have somehow figured out areas we have been historically awful in. 

I think our W/L is happily normalizing wrt how good the metrics have suggested this team actually is but I agree w your overall point

 

Imo the Bills were neither as bad as was bemoaned early on nor as dangerous a potential postseason opponent as we are being made out to be now

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2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Well...not really. Pretty much every advanced metric has the Bills as a top 5 team. DVOA they were 3rd, SOS 5th, a few others 4th or 5th as well.

 

A team that hasn't lost a regular season game by more than 6 points in over 2 full years now seems pretty good to me. That is an absurdly long time to maintain that level of play.

So when we finished 3rd in 2020, 2nd in 2021, and 1st in 2022, did you ever start to wonder if maybe DVOA over ranks us because teams who rank lower always finish higher and we have never actually played to or outplayed our DVOA ranking in the McD era? I wonder if the same goofy stats are impacting our net point differential. It's almost as if we have a chronic history of underplaying data points that generally have a good level of forecast accuracy.

 

Maybe it's because we crush teams, juicing our advanced stats but when it comes down to one on one  single games it's a total crap shoot and we default to our .500 record in games decided by 7 or less. I do think it's likely we will see more games decided by 7 or less in the coming weeks given that it's the playoffs and all.

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I think our W/L is happily normalizing wrt how good the metrics have suggested this team actually is but I agree w your overall point

 

Imo the Bills were neither as bad as was bemoaned early on nor as dangerous a potential postseason opponent as we are being made out to be now

I agree with this. We also never play up to our advanced stats like DVOA. Never happened before. So I think that goes back to how we create those advanced stats. 

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3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I think our W/L is happily normalizing wrt how good the metrics have suggested this team actually is but I agree w your overall point

 

Imo the Bills were neither as bad as was bemoaned early on nor as dangerous a potential postseason opponent as we are being made out to be now

I think it’s just sloppier football leaguewide this year and we’re right where weve been in previous years compared to the other afc teams as far as odds of a playoff run goes.  Offenses have been inconsistent all over the place this season 

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7 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

So when we finished 3rd in 2020, 2nd in 2021, and 1st in 2022, did you ever start to wonder if maybe DVOA over ranks us because teams who rank lower always finish higher and we have never actually played to or outplayed our DVOA ranking in the McD era? I wonder if the same goofy stats are impacting our net point differential. It's almost as if we have a chronic history of underplaying data points that generally have a good level of forecast accuracy.

 

Maybe it's because we crush teams, juicing our advanced stats but when it comes down to one on one  single games it's a total crap shoot and we default to our .500 record in games decided by 7 or less. I do think it's likely we will see more games decided by 7 or less in the coming weeks given that it's the playoffs and all.

I agree with this. We also never play up to our advanced stats like DVOA. Never happened before. So I think that goes back to how we create those advanced stats. 

 

Pretty much ALL teams over a few seasons normalize to a .500 record in one score games. Almost without fail teams that are great in 1-score games like the Vikings were last year are not good and revert to the mean the following year.

 

Why? Because luck is the biggest factor in 1 score games which has been shown in studies on this.

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Just now, Big Turk said:

 

Pretty much ALL teams over a few seasons normalize to a .500 record in one score games.

Tom doesn't agree. Nor does Pat. In fact, run it man. Your the one who said it. 

 

Pat is 33-16

Brady 91-43

Manning is 77-40

 

Josh has a losing record. Is that Josh or McD? You made the statement so I would think the burden falls on you. 

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6 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Tom doesn't agree. Nor does Pat. In fact, run it man. Your the one who said it. 

 

Pat is 33-16

Brady 91-43

Manning is 77-40

 

Josh has a losing record. Is that Josh or McD? You made the statement so I would think the burden falls on you. 

 

 

How many of those were "true" one score games versus "name only" one score games where a team scores a garbage time TD to make it look good but never really had a chance to win?

 

Mahomes lost his last 2 one score games he played against Allen. And he had the ball last both times and didn't get it done.

 

How many times has Allen drove down to give the Bills the lead with under 2 minutes in a game only to see the D lose it? 

 

3 times this year, Arizona game in the Hail Murray, 13 second game(TWICE!!), probably at least one or two others.

 

That's on him they lost those?

 

https://jaydpauley.medium.com/is-winning-close-games-in-the-nfl-luck-6118d3d8a701

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Just now, Big Turk said:

That analysis looks at teams, without consistency of coach and QB and by outcomes of 3 points or less. So if one was to say does a random team with a random coach in a small sample have a likelihood of finishing a game decided by 3 points or less at basically neutral probability? Sure. The 3 points alone almost make it a defacto coin flip. I said 7 or less. Which will make good teams fall more on the right side as history has shown, just not with McD. 

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3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

 

How many of those were "true" one score games versus "name only" one score games where a team scores a garbage time TD to make it look good but never really had a chance to win?

 

Mahomes lost his last 2 one score games he played against Allen. And he had the ball last both times and didn't get it done.

 

https://jaydpauley.medium.com/is-winning-close-games-in-the-nfl-luck-6118d3d8a701

I wanna look into this but it’ll take a ton of time haha it’s felt like a crazy anomaly where the bills just blow people out when they win so frequently that they just don’t get a lot of those cheap fake one score wins where they give up a meaningless td late.  I’ve gotta try to figure out how to look into it though 😂

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1 minute ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I wanna look into this but it’ll take a ton of time haha it’s felt like a crazy anomaly where the bills just blow people out when they win so frequently that they just don’t get a lot of those cheap fake one score wins where they give up a meaningless td late.  I’ve gotta try to figure out how to look into it though 😂

 

Last one I really remember like that was the Browns game last year where the Bills had a big lead and the Browns made it a little closer late and lost by 8.

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I haven't read through this entire thread but I think where a lot of the optimism comes from right now is how bad the AFC looks overall.  We have just as good of a shot to get in the playoffs and make some noise as anybody.  Obviously I don't think the Bills have looked like a consistently great team throughout the season and in other years I wouldn't have any faith in anything big happening but you just can't rule out the Bills making something happen in the playoffs when you look at the competition.  One of the more interesting NFL seasons in awhile.  

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4 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

That analysis looks at teams, without consistency of coach and QB and by outcomes of 3 points or less. So if one was to say does a random team with a random coach in a small sample have a likelihood of finishing a game decided by 3 points or less at basically neutral probability? Sure. The 3 points alone almost make it a defacto coin flip. I said 7 or less. Which will make good teams fall more on the right side as history has shown, just not with McD. 

 

So the Bills should be punished for kicking teams asses instead of letting them stick around more. Got it.

 

Chiefs have always played more close games when they should have blown teams out.

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4 minutes ago, BillsPride12 said:

I haven't read through this entire thread but I think where a lot of the optimism comes from right now is how bad the AFC looks overall.  We have just as good of a shot to get in the playoffs and make some noise as anybody.  Obviously I don't think the Bills have looked like a consistently great team throughout the season and in other years I wouldn't have any faith in anything big happening but you just can't rule out the Bills making something happen in the playoffs when you look at the competition.  One of the more interesting NFL seasons in awhile.  

Seems like defensive lines are just dominating and offenses have looked really bad as a result.  I get the feeling at times that some of the negative posters don’t watch a lot of non bills football because this has been a trend with nearly all the contenders 

 

sf had a rough patch but they have been consistent since…everyone else though looks like they’re next letdown game can come at any moment 

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2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

So the Bills should be punished for kicking teams asses instead of letting them stick around more. Got it.

 

Chiefs have always played more close games when they should have blown teams out.

It would be reasonable to assume as the competition gets more difficult the likelihood of us being in a one score game grows. At which point, we do not perform favorably . It is essentially the demise of this team against stats like DVOA. Good teams are not expected to have losing records in games decided by 7 points. That makes the burden for victory excessive. The greats show they handled these situations with winning records and sometimes overwhelmingly so. We do not. We never have, So to think this will just up and change. We have a very long history of underperforming that say it will not.

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3 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Seems like defensive lines are just dominating and offenses have looked really bad as a result.  I get the feeling at times that some of the negative posters don’t watch a lot of non bills football because this has been a trend with nearly all the contenders 

 

sf had a rough patch but they have been consistent since…everyone else though looks like they’re next letdown game can come at any moment 

I would actually put SF on a tier all by themselves right now.  That's the one team that has looked like a true Super Bowl team throughout the season even including that 3 game skid they had midway through the season but yeah there's not one other team in the league that I really trust this year and that hasn't gone through their own letdowns.  I'm at a weird place with the Bills right now with the way the conference looks.  I think they could absolutely beat any team in the AFC but I wouldn't be shocked at all if they lost to any of them either.  Just a weird season man.

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Just now, Mikie2times said:

It would be reasonable to assume as the competition gets more difficult the likelihood of us being in a one score game grows. At which point, we do not perform favorably . It is essentially the demise of this team against stats like DVOA. Good teams are not expected to have losing records in games decided by 7 points. That makes the burden for victory excessive. The greats show they handled these situations with winning records and sometimes overwhelmingly so. We do not. We never have, So to think this will just up and change. We have a very long history of underperforming that say it will not.

 

How do you blame Allen for losses where he gives the team the lead within 2 minutes and the D loses it?

 

That's nonsensical. Is he supposed to play linebacker too? Block kicks? 

 

It's happened at least 5 times and I am pretty sure if I went back and looked at more games it would likely be more. 

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Just now, Big Turk said:

 

How do you blame Allen for losses where he gives the team the lead within 2 minutes and the D loses it?

 

That's nonsensical. Is he supposed to play linebacker too? Block kicks? 

 

It's happened at least 5 times and I am pretty sure if I went back and looked at more games it would likely be more. 

I don't blame Allen

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Just now, Big Turk said:

 

But you quote other QBs records

It is the easiest stat to link up with and as it relates to Sean and all of Allen sample is also his sample. I also wouldn't expect any predictor on record to be evident until as a whole the team is good. Until that point, I would agree, it's either negative or random. Once they're good, as we have been since Allen joined, I would have the expectation that more outcomes would be in favor of us just as a product of bing better along with the somewhat hidden "clutch" element great QB's display. Josh just can't overcome Sean and I really have no reason to think that has changed. I liked our defensive gameplan at KC late. But as a whole I needed way more question marks answered this year that just haven't happened and our playoff exit, at least in my mind, seems horribly obvious at this time (as much as I hope to god I'm wrong). 

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4 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

It is the easiest stat to link up with and as it relates to Sean and all of Allen sample is also his sample. I also wouldn't expect any predictor on record to be evident until as a whole the team is good. Until that point, I would agree, it's either negative or random. Once they're good, as we have been since Allen joined, I would have the expectation that more outcomes would be in favor of us just as a product of bing better along with the somewhat hidden "clutch" element great QB's display. Josh just can't overcome Sean and I really have no reason to think that has changed. I liked our defensive gameplan at KC late. But as a whole I needed way more question marks answered this year that just haven't happened and our playoff exit, at least in my mind, seems horribly obvious at this time (as much as I hope to god I'm wrong). 

 

I dunno...I just don't remember many times that Allen hasn't delivered for us in those situations. The most common scenario in close losses is that he scores with under 2 minutes left to give the Bills the lead and the team blows it.

 

Even in the Minnesota game where he lost the lead late with that idiotic fumble they recovered for a TD with under a minute left he drove them down to kick the thing FG.

 

I'm always rolling with Allen if we need a TD to win the game under 2 minutes. He has been masterful in those situations.

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1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

I dunno...I just don't remember many times that Allen hasn't delivered for us in those situations. The most common scenario in close losses is that he scores with under 2 minutes left to give the Bills the lead and the team blows it.

 

Even in the Minnesota game where he lost the lead late with that idiotic fumble they recovered for a TD with under a minute left he drove them down to kick the thing FG.

 

I'm always rolling with Allen if we need a TD to win the game under 2 minutes. He has been masterful in those situations.

I agree, which makes our sub .500 record very damning. 

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7 minutes ago, Orlando Tim said:

It has probably been said but luck is when opportunity meets preparation. We are the better team, we made dumb mistakes but we're able to pull it out anyways. It was also bad luck we lost to the Pats* and Denver so sometimes luck is good and sometimes bad. 

Its a pendulum in my opinion. As the forces get more difficult your ability to overcome things gets more difficult. We could do so against the Chargers. It won't likely happen in the playoffs.  Unless our ability to manage and prepare has somehow changed or improved. Which perhaps it has. Who knows. 

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Bailey Zappe and The undermanned 3-11 patriots just went into denver who had an extra day to prepare and beat them essentially knocking them out of the playoffs. 

 

This is the nfl in 2023.  If the bills are not careful they will be in the same situation next week with new england.  The bills will need super josh to win next week.

 

I bet the giants are going to put a scare into the eagles tomorrow also.

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56 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Its a pendulum in my opinion. As the forces get more difficult your ability to overcome things gets more difficult. We could do so against the Chargers. It won't likely happen in the playoffs.  Unless our ability to manage and prepare has somehow changed or improved. Which perhaps it has. Who knows. 

 

Bills typically play their best against better teams, which is a good sign.

 

Bills are 3-1 against the Dolphins, Cowboys and Chiefs with 2 of the wins being blowouts and the one loss was in OT to a Philly team we had a big lead on for most of the game with their kicker making a preposterous FG under the conditions to send the game to OT.

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3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Ok, to all flaming me, I’ll take the hits.  Lucky was the wrong word; as Shaw said fortunate would have been better.  I just want the Bills to win it all like everyone here, and when they play like they did yesterday they won’t make it.  
 

I still remember sitting with my dad and brother just shy of my 5th birthday, at the first game at the Rockpile in 1960.  I had the joy of watching them win the two AFL championships, the misery of the late 60’s and early 70’s, the joy then of OJ in his prime.  I’ve had the misery of coaches like Hank Bullough and Rex Ryan, and the joy of Lou Saban and Marv and maybe Sean.   The misery of GMs like Harvey Johnson and Tom Donahue and the joy of Polian and Beane.  The Super Bowl years, and the playoff run now with Josh leading the way. I’ve seen it all and lived it all.

 

And the constant through all this is the fan base.  All of us love our Bills even when they drive us batty.  Last night’s game drove me batty so I reacted by my post.  And other Mafia took me to task.  And that is as it should be.

 

Merry Christmas to my fellow fans.  Here’s to victory in ‘24!


Good response here. Let me just add my two cents: not all luck has to be bad luck. In the long run, about half of the breaks should go for you, and about half against you. We Bills fans are used to most of the breaks, or at least the really impactful ones, going against us. But that doesn’t mean we need to apologize or feel guilty, or in any way feel diminished, when a couple breaks go our way. 

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6 minutes ago, Cash said:


Good response here. Let me just add my two cents: not all luck has to be bad luck. In the long run, about half of the breaks should go for you, and about half against you. We Bills fans are used to most of the breaks, or at least the really impactful ones, going against us. But that doesn’t mean we need to apologize or feel guilty, or in any way feel diminished, when a couple breaks go our way. 

 

As I posted up-thread, the Bills have been the 4th most unlucky team in the NFL this year...they are well overdue for some things to go their way in games .

 

Last year the Bills were 7th luckiest team...not surprisingly they finished 13-3. 2021, they were the 2nd most unlucky team...not surprisingly they found themselves in almost the exact same scenario they are in this year...7-6 and had to fight hard down the stretch to make the playoffs at 11-6.

 

In 2020, they again were the 3rd luckiest team and finished 13-3.

 

Based on trends and how it seems to alternate we very well might have luck on our side again next year.

 

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Saturday Night started by not being able to run the ball.

 

Punted 3x to start the game. 
 

Didn’t get the run going until the last drive of the first half. 
 

So I think that was the first half, lopsided TOP.

 

The second half was turnovers and penalties that slowed the team down. 

 

I am concerned about Diggs not being able to get loose at all.

 

Kincaid has disappeared since the 1st half of the Eagles game and with 2-games left now, he’s been limited to dump-offs all year. Where is the playmaking? 

 

Allen and the Bills reverted to playing again in that helter skelter style, Allen running around, plays out structure.

 

Things the Bills have going for them:

1. The Offensive Line continuity


2. Stable of useable running backs

 

3. Allen felt like he bailed out of the pocket early a few times, but c

 

 

Things the Bills have to work on

1. Where is the quick rhythmic passing game with Diggs and Kincaid? Couldn’t sustain drives, and haven’t seen that elite Diggs route-running paying off for several weeks now. 

 

2. Von Miller’s tape couldn’t have been good in film review. I watched him all game and he got pushed past the QB almost every play. The Bills are giving him every opportunity to turn back on.

 

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