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The bleak cap situation going forward


Einstein

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We were discussing this in the Von Miller thread, but thought maybe it wasn't wise to continue cluttering that thread with cap talk. 

We are currently $42 million over the cap for next season. That number assumes the NFL increases the salary cap increases, from the current cap of $224.8M to $243.9M (technically we are about $62 million over at the moment), plus rollover.


cap1431.jpg

Getting under the cap

If we release Dion Dawkins, Tre White, Taron Johnson, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines, we can get down to almost $0 (-413,780) cap space.


Obviously this doesn't include restructures yet. But we can't just endlessly keep kicking the can down the road.


dfsvds.jpg

 

If we do NOT release one of those starters, you can add the following to our cap negative by this amount:

Keeping Dawkins: Add $4.8M to cap negative.
Keeping White: Add $6.2M to cap negative.
Keeping Taron: Add $7.7M to cap negative.
Keeping Morse: Add $8.5M to cap negative.
Keeping Poyer: Add $5.5M to cap negative.

Key players that will have to be re-signed or let walk 

Micah Hyde: Contract expires this offseason.
Daquan Jones: Contract expires this offseason.

Leonard Floyd: Contract expires this offseason.

Summary

 

We are $42M over the estimated 2024 cap, with Jones, Floyd and Hyde contract expiring. We will need a mixture of releasing starters, and re-structuring current deals, in order to get enough cap to draft players.

We are likely going to have to restructure Allen, and then replace a lot of starters with very little money.

.

Edited by Einstein
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First, we need to figure out what the actual projected over the cap number is…


13M is a big difference  

 

At 29M over, we can cut Poyer, White, Johnson, Harty and Morse and be pretty much under the cap without factoring any trades, extensions or restructures. 

 

 

Edited by SCBills
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15 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Regardless.. we can enter next season with something like this offense:

 

Allen

Dawkins / Brown

McGovern / Morse / Torrence

Cook / Johnson

Kincaid / Knox

Diggs / Shakir / RD1 WR 

 

It looks like in your scenario, we keep Dawkins and Morse, and release Tre White, Taron Johnson, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines.

That brings our cap space to negative $19M ($19,284,114).

morse.jpg
 

15 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Epenesa 4 year deal (backloaded)

Floyd 2 year deal (w void years)

Jones 2 year deal (w void years)


This likely brings the cap to negative ($23M) or so, assuming $1M in signing year. 
 

15 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

RD2 DT

RD3 S

RD4 Slot Corner

 

RD5-7 DT, S, OL


Draft picks will cost a little under $6M. 

We are now at negative ($29M).
 

7 minutes ago, SCBills said:

First, we need to figure out what the actual projected over the cap number is…


13M is a big difference  

 

At 29M over, we can cut Poyer, White, Johnson, Harty and Morse and be pretty much under the cap without factoring any trades, extensions or restructures. 

 


Calculate for yourself...

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2024/

cap1431.jpg

Edited by Einstein
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Just now, Process said:

Replacements for White and Morse are already on the roster. 

 

Re sign Floyd and Jones.

 

Go WR and S early in the draft.

 

Fill in the rest with cheap FAs. 

 

We won't have a single major need on offense next offseason outside of WR. 

 

We'll be fine. Coaching is the biggest obstacle going forward not cap space. 


This is where I’m at.  
 

Our cap situation isn’t great, but neither is the cap/financial situation for the Dolphins, Jets or Bengals.  
 

Chiefs got it right, but have a looming Chris Jones contract negotiation and Travis Kelce potential retirement down the line.  For a dominant 3 man run, that’s 2 of them.

 

Bills can bring back a Top 5 OL, Top 2 QB plus Diggs, Shakir, Cook, Kincaid & Knox. 
 

Do the right thing and draft Allen a RD1 WR in a Draft with 6-7 WR1 potential guys in it.  
 

Then start to rebuild the defensive secondary and defensive depth with the rest of the draft.  
 

Focus every financial effort this off-season to keeping this DL together and along with Milano coming back to pair with Bernard.. there’s the nucleus, along with Rasul Douglas outside, to carry that side of the ball. 

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There's still a ton of work to be done, for sure.

 

Lots that you or I aren't knowing what happens or what the plan is. Instead of a Dawkins cut, there may be a Dawkins extension. Instead of Tre being cut chances is he may end up back on a straight up pay cut like Mitch Morse did a couple years back.

 

And you haven't even factored in the restructuring of contracts that will surely come as well. 

 

And every calculation done now even factoring all possible things into it possibly becomes a moot point depending on what happens with Miller and his issues. 

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6 minutes ago, Einstein said:

  

 

It looks like in your scenario, we keep Dawkins and Morse, and release Tre White, Taron Johnson, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines.

That brings our cap space to negative $19M ($19,284,114).

morse.jpg
 


This likely brings the cap to negative ($23M) or so, assuming $1M in signing year. 
 


Draft picks will cost a little under $6M. 

We are now at negative ($29M).
 


Calculate for yourself...

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2024/

cap1431.jpg


If we need to cut Morse, im perfectly fine with Bates taking over.   I’d love to keep him, but sometimes tough decisions have to be made.  
 

We will also likely have some restructures/extensions … likely Dawkins based on his play this year and Douglas, for the same reason .. along with his future potential at Safety. 

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For me, this is easier than it looks to start:

 

No 30+ year old players.  No exceptions.

No Tre White.

No long contracts to good but not great players.  

I try to ship Von Miller out of town (just because of his contract and lack of production, nothing to do with today's news)

I try to trade Knox for picks.  

 

Next year is Year #1 of the reload for Season #1 in the new stadium.  Likely not a playoff season, but need to free up cap to spend in 2025 and 2026 so that you have a peaking team for that inaugural season.  You do not want your rebuild/reload to occur that season.

 

Next year's remodel is why this all-in year is a crushing disappointment.    

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Einstein said:

  

 

It looks like in your scenario, we keep Dawkins and morse, and release Tre White, Taron Johnson, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines.

That brings our cap space to negative $19M ($19,284,114).

morse.jpg
 


This likely brings the cap to negative ($23M) or so, assuming $1M in signing year. 
 


Draft picks will cost a little under $6M. 

We are now at negative ($29M).
 


Calculate for yourself...

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2024/

 

I got to 16.4 on spotrac doing this:

 

Restructure - Allen, Milano, Oliver, McGovern, Bates

Cut - Tre, Morse, Poyer, Hines, Harty, Neal

Left alone - Diggs, Von (for now), Knox, Johnson, Dawkins

 

Other possibilities

Cut Von post june - saves 6.79M in 2024, but theres 15.4 in dead money 2025

Extend Dawkins - Can likely lower the base salary number from 9.3M and give you flexibility to restructure down the line

Extend Taron - Reduce base salary from 6.45

Extend Douglas - Already 30 years old but even adding a year can get that 9M base salary lower

Restructure Diggs - Can get about 14M in cap space if you do this - but he's in age 31 and it basically locks him in through age 32 or 33 season

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1 minute ago, Einstein said:


With what money though?

That's what i'm trying to figure out.

I’m not trying to sound like a jerk or anything, but there are levers and buttons at Bean’s disposal that we don’t know about. 
 

There are also contract details we don’t know about. 
 

Things may not be as bleak as they appear. Teams know how to manipulate the cap. 

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Here you go. #'s are per Sportrac:

 

Allen Restrux - $18M

Diggs Restrux - $14M

Miller Restrux -$13M

 

That alone gets from negative cap space to $3M in space. 

Tre restrux or cutting him gets another $5-6M

Knox restrux gets $3M

Milano restrux gets $2.7M

A bunch of other restrux on guys like Bass, Bates, McG, etc can add up to another $5-10M. 

 

So before even cutting guys I got to over $20M in space. Now if you cut Harty and Hines that is another $10M. So with only losing Harty and Hines we have $30M in space. Cut deep and get rid of guys like Hyde, Power, Morse, Johnson then we could be north of $50M but better have some replacemnts.

 

Never as bad as it seems...

 

 

 

 

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I think a cap reset of sorts is needed and the Bills need an infusion of young/cheap players.  I don't think Dawkins and Morse get cut.  I think Dawkins is an extension candidate and Morse could be as well.  White is an easy cut unless he is still injured, not sure how that will paly out.  I would also move on from Poyer Harty and Hines, they just need to cut bait with some of these guys.  Also, no way they cut Taron.  

 

Dion Dawkins, Tre White, Taron Johnson, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines

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1 minute ago, dpberr said:

For me, this is easier than it looks to start:

 

No 30+ year old players.  No exceptions.

No Tre White.

No long contracts to good but not great players.  

I try to ship Von Miller out of town (just because of his contract and lack of production, nothing to do with today's news)

I try to trade Knox for picks.  

 

Next year is Year #1 of the reload for Season #1 in the new stadium.  Likely not a playoff season, but need to free up cap to spend in 2025 and 2026 so that you have a peaking team for that inaugural season.  You do not want your rebuild/reload to occur that season.

 

Next year's remodel is why this all-in year is a crushing disappointment.    

 

 


Knox and Von aren’t being traded, and the Bills will NEVER punt on a prime Josh Allen year .. so that’s not happening. 
 

The Bills could position themselves to have the most talented offense in the league if they do what’s right by Allen in this elite WR draft.  They already have the QB, the OL, the RB, the WR and the TE, plus guys like Knox and Shakir. 
 

The defense is likely where we see massive changes, but will there be a drop off?   From what?  A defense that doesn’t show up against good teams or

in big moments?

 

Next year should be a Josh Allen MVP year on a loaded offense from top to bottom, with a defense that is strong up

front and at LB but can be leaky on the back end. 

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17 minutes ago, Einstein said:

We were discussing this in the Von Miller thread, but thought maybe it wasn't wise to continue cluttering that thread with cap talk. 

We are currently $42 million over the cap for next season. That number assumes the NFL increases the salary cap increases, from the current cap of $224.8M to $243.9M (technically we are about $62 million over at the moment), plus rollover.


cap1431.jpg

Getting under the cap

If we release Dion Dawkins, Tre White, Taron Johnson, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines, we can get down to almost $0 (-413,780) cap space.



dfsvds.jpg

 

If we do NOT release one of those starters, you can add the following to our cap negative by this amount:

Keeping Dawkins: Add $4.8M to cap negative.
Keeping White: Add $6.2M to cap negative.
Keeping Taron: Add $7.7M to cap negative.
Keeping Morse: Add $8.5M to cap negative.
Keeping Poyer: Add $5.5M to cap negative.

Key players that will have to be re-signed or let walk 

Micah Hyde: Contract expires this offseason.
Daquan Jones: Contract expires this offseason.

Leonard Floyd: Contract expires this offseason.

Summary

 

We are $42M over the estimated 2024 cap, with Jones, Floyd and Hyde contract expiring. We will need a mixture of releasing starters, and re-structuring current deals, in order to get enough cap to draft players.

We are going to have to replace a lot of starters with very little money.

Good post I think a lot of us want to know about this. Reading from the posters that are knowledgeable about this, seems like the cap hit for Von will make no difference. 
 

I would guess White, Morse and Poyer would be cut. 
 

free agents Floyd and Hyde will likely not be resigned. 
 

Don’t know about the others on the list 

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2 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Here you go. #'s are per Sportrac:

 

Allen Restrux - $18M

Diggs Restrux - $14M

Miller Restrux -$13M

 

That alone gets from negative cap space to $3M in space. 

Tre restrux or cutting him gets another $5-6M

Knox restrux gets $3M

Milano restrux gets $2.7M

A bunch of other restrux on guys like Bass, Bates, McG, etc can add up to another $5-10M. 

 

So before even cutting guys I got to over $20M in space. Now if you cut Harty and Hines that is another $10M. So with only losing Harty and Hines we have $30M in space. Cut deep and get rid of guys like Hyde, Power, Morse, Johnson then we could be north of $50M but better have some replacemnts.

 

Never as bad as it seems...

 

 

 

 

You’re not going to want to restructure Miller IMO. Kicks the can down the road, his dead cap numbers will be massive if he have to move on from him. 

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Just now, TheyCallMeAndy said:

You’re not going to want to restructure Miller IMO. Kicks the can down the road, his dead cap numbers will be massive if he have to move on from him. 

 

Yeah i got to 30.5 without touching miller or knox.  Knox isn't cuttable until 2024, and depending on results of all this stuff with Von who knows there.  I could see him getting cut with the hit splitting across 2024/2025.  

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1 minute ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I think a cap reset of sorts is needed and the Bills need an infusion of young/cheap players.  I don't think Dawkins and Morse get cut.  I think Dawkins is an extension candidate and Morse could be as well.  White is an easy cut unless he is still injured, not sure how that will paly out.  I would also move on from Poyer Harty and Hines, they just need to cut bait with some of these guys.  Also, no way they cut Taron.  

 

Dion Dawkins, Tre White, Taron Johnson, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines

Poyer and Hyde, IMO, are done. They may have 1-2 solid years left but this secondary needs to get younger and more athletic. 
 

If we move on from McD (who just signed a 3-year extension in June) some familiar faces go as well. 

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2 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

We also don’t know what another restructure of Allen’s contract would do for the cap. 
 


Allen has a base salary next year of $23M. Say we move $20M of that to a signing bonus, saving $16M next year.

That reduces our -$42M to -$26M.

Keep in mind that restructuring simply kicks the can down the road. For example, restructuring this last offseason made Allen's 2025 cap hit $56 million.

This would put $20M more onto his cap hit for the final 3 years of his contract, making his cap numbers:

 

2025: Original: $56,556,281 + Additional $4,000,000 (prorated bonus) = New Cap Hit: $60,556,281

2026: Original: $52,256,281 + Additional $4,000,000 = New Cap Hit: $56,256,281

2027: Original: $45,284,000 + Additional $4,000,000 = New Cap Hit: $49,284,000


So that would make Allen's cap hit over the next 3 years, totals over $165.9 Million.

Something to keep in mind  (they cant keep doing this).

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2 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Yeah i got to 30.5 without touching miller or knox.  Knox isn't cuttable until 2024, and depending on results of all this stuff with Von who knows there.  I could see him getting cut with the hit splitting across 2024/2025.  

Or a restructure to bring Knox’s cap hit down. It isn’t has brutal as most think. 

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1 minute ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

A Dawkins extension if done right would actually lower his cap hit next year. And again, restructuring is a thing. I believe $23M cap space can be gained just from Allen alone. 


Right, but say we reduce his cap hit from $16M to $4M (void years, signing bonus, yada yada), we are still $30M over the cap.

I guess what im trying to say is we need to make many more moves than that.

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We also have contracts, like Knox, we can move off from/trade after next year.  
 

These next two years are tricky, but a lot of us were worried because we will most assuredly lose guys like Hyde & Poyer .. well, love them to death, but they aren’t that good anymore.   Even Taron Johnson, still very good, should be a conversation due to some aspects of his game being exposed this year.  
 

The fact is we have a Top 5 OL all under contract next year (if we keep Morse) plus the depth (Bates, Anderson, Van Demark).  Milano comes back next year.  Beane hitting on rookie contracts like Kincaid, Benford, Bernard, Torrence, now a guy like Shakir too … massive.  
 

He’ll need to do it again this year. 
 

At some point, we have to eat an Allen big cap hit year.   Chiefs did it when they went young on defense and won the Super Bowl.   
 

Im hesitant to keep tinkering with his contract. 
 

Id rather load him up with 1 or 2 WR’s in the Draft next year and just try to outscore people when added to the already talented offense coming back.    
 

Then prioritize the DL and let them pass rush with Milano/Bernard protecting a young secondary outside Douglas. 
 

 

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Just now, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Or a restructure to bring Knox’s cap hit down. It isn’t has brutal as most think. 

 

Eh i didn't want to add more guaranteed money to him down the line.  His dead money number for 2025 is 7.8M vs. a 15.4M cap hit. 

 

You can also keep him for 2025 while you have kincaid on a rookie deal.  It's a lot for knox, but its not as bad when you average out the two tight ends.  

1 minute ago, May Day 10 said:

 

That sounds like it would save money for this year (next?) but isnt clear about the rest

 

All his bonuses wouldn't be touched.  Its the base salary that is currently guaranteed up to 10ish M, and then another portion triggers a few days into the new league year.  Any of his roster bonuses etc. would also be voided.  

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30 minutes ago, Einstein said:

We were discussing this in the Von Miller thread, but thought maybe it wasn't wise to continue cluttering that thread with cap talk. 

We are currently $42 million over the cap for next season. That number assumes the NFL increases the salary cap increases, from the current cap of $224.8M to $243.9M (technically we are about $62 million over at the moment), plus rollover.


cap1431.jpg

Getting under the cap

If we release Dion Dawkins, Tre White, Taron Johnson, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines, we can get down to almost $0 (-413,780) cap space.



dfsvds.jpg

 

If we do NOT release one of those starters, you can add the following to our cap negative by this amount:

Keeping Dawkins: Add $4.8M to cap negative.
Keeping White: Add $6.2M to cap negative.
Keeping Taron: Add $7.7M to cap negative.
Keeping Morse: Add $8.5M to cap negative.
Keeping Poyer: Add $5.5M to cap negative.

Key players that will have to be re-signed or let walk 

Micah Hyde: Contract expires this offseason.
Daquan Jones: Contract expires this offseason.

Leonard Floyd: Contract expires this offseason.

Summary

 

We are $42M over the estimated 2024 cap, with Jones, Floyd and Hyde contract expiring. We will need a mixture of releasing starters, and re-structuring current deals, in order to get enough cap to draft players.

We are going to have to replace a lot of starters with very little money.

We have 4 defensive lineman signed for next year, and possibly only 2 starters depending on how Von Miller recovers from his injury. Miller, Oliver, Rousseau, and Jonathan.

 

We are very thin there, and will not have the cap to do much there. Could be our first round pick.

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Just now, DapperCam said:

We have 4 defensive lineman signed for next year, and possibly only 2 starters depending on how Von Miller recovers from his injury. Miller, Oliver, Rousseau, and Jonathan.

 

We are very thin there, and will not have the cap to do much there. Could be our first round pick.


You're right. This could be a very defensive draft again. 

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7 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Poyer and Hyde, IMO, are done. They may have 1-2 solid years left but this secondary needs to get younger and more athletic. 
 

If we move on from McD (who just signed a 3-year extension in June) some familiar faces go as well. 

The Bills should have started retooling/rebuilding after 13secs,  just like KC did.  There is no reason to keep extending Poyer/Hyde and the gross money were spending other role players.  What is more sickening is Beane giving Dawson Knox 14 million a season which is what Kelce makes.  Beane has made some stupid choices signing guys and just handing out money like candy

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25 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Miller Restrux -$13M


How do you restructure a player that has only 1 effective year left?

That would move his 2025 cap hit (final year) to $36 million, OR you spread that across the void years and we will end up having to pay for Von Miller for 3 years after he is gone/retired.

 

Either scenario is yuck.

I'd be shocked if they did this.

 

Quote

So before even cutting guys I got to over $20M in space. 


It just doesn't work this way.

Your plan of restructuring everyone would end in the teams cap space imploding the next 2 years.

Restructuring isn't free money. It just moves it prorated to the following years of the contract.

 

.

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2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

We also have contracts, like Knox, we can move off from/trade after next year.  
 

These next two years are tricky, but a lot of us were worried because we will most assuredly lose guys like Hyde & Poyer .. well, love them to death, but they aren’t that good anymore.   Even Taron Johnson, still very good, should be a conversation due to some aspects of his game being exposed this year.  
 

The fact is we have a Top 5 OL all under contract next year (if we keep Morse) plus the depth (Bates, Anderson, Van Demark).  Milano comes back next year.  Beane hitting on rookie contracts like Kincaid, Benford, Bernard, Torrence, now a guy like Shakir too … massive.  
 

He’ll need to do it again this year. 

 

Lots of picks, lots of holes.  

 

If we go WR in the first, i'm not sure another offensive player gets drafted til round 5+.  

 

Need pass rushers, 3T, 1T players (these are usually found in that late 3rd/4th where we have 3 picks), probably a corner, and safeties. 

 

After they do their moves to get under and figure out the von situation - they should have space to make some moves.  Maybe bring back DQ and AJE. Id expect 2 free agent safeties (assuming mcdermott stays, which i think he will).  Quite a few pretty good safeties hitting UFA so if you do it right you can get a couple good players who need homes.  Pass rusher - same thing.  Allen, Burns and Young will be getting paid and there will be people without jobs who won't cost nearly as much.  

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6 minutes ago, Einstein said:


Right, but say we reduce his cap hit from $16M to $4M (void years, signing bonus, yada yada), we are still $30M over the cap.

I guess what im trying to say is we need to make many more moves than that.

Agree, have to make a ton of moves. And a ton of moves can be made. I did a check through about a week ago and there is about $75M total that can be cleared in restructuring. Now, I am NOT advocating they should do all of them or implying that they will...just what's open and available.

 

Then as you touched with some likely cap cuts (Morse, Harty, Nyheim all jump off the page) as well as somebody like Tre that may be back under a slashed contract agreement...it's bleak but not as bleak as it seems.

 

However, the monkey wrench will be how much Miller is going to cost. Be it dead cap, accelerated cap cost or restructure (if cleared and retained).

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Agree, have to make a ton of moves. And a ton of moves can be made. I did a check through about a week ago and there is about $75M total that can be cleared in restructuring. Now, I am NOT advocating they should do all of them or implying that they will...just what's open and available.

 

Then as you touched with some likely cap cuts (Morse, Harty, Nyheim all jump off the page) as well as somebody like Tre that may be back under a slashed contract agreement...it's bleak but not as bleak as it seems.

 

However, the monkey wrench will be how much Miller is going to cost. Be it dead cap, accelerated cap cost or restructure (if cleared and retained).

 

If you can bring back white at a reduced cost, with benford, and douglas.  CB is basically set, and thats not factoring in whatever you might have with Elam.  

 

Safety i expect them to do what they did with poyer and hyde - identify vets who aren't pro bowlers who will be scheme fits.  

 

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6 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

We have 4 defensive lineman signed for next year, and possibly only 2 starters depending on how Von Miller recovers from his injury. Miller, Oliver, Rousseau, and Jonathan.

 

We are very thin there, and will not have the cap to do much there. Could be our first round pick.


I think the Bills can get something done with Jones and Epenesa.   Jones coming off an injury probably wont break the bank.   Can backload a 2 year deal with the idea that maybe we move Knox in ‘25. 
 

Epenesa is young so we can have flexibility with a 3-4 year deal.  
 

Floyd is the big one … and I’d try to backload a 2 year deal with him as well, probably with more void years.. again, with the knowledge that we can move off Knox’s contract to help offset the DL investment. 
 

I trust us to get young and draft some solid guys in the secondary (where they have a strong track record on Day 3) but not so much impact players on the DL … especially when our RD1 pick not being a WR would be managerial malpractice in this Draft. 

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1 minute ago, Einstein said:


Yeah I was just explaining to nglbills how we can't just restructure everyone. You're right to point out that it wouldn't be a smart idea. It would just make the cap situation the next 2 years even worse.

Every dollar restructured still gets counted against the cap, including a portion of that the year you restructure. To quote Beane "you just kick the can down the road".

Agree and that's the way they have approached it in the past.

 

However, I think it's fair to wonder if Beane and McDermott are retained for next year the pressure is cranked way up and we see more aggressive behavior concerning the cap and trades. In short they may look at it as "We don't win this year we won't be here in 2 years to care about the cap". Maybe we see Beane go truly "all in" next year and take it to the LA Rams extreme. I know not likely, but it's gotta be something to consider at this point for them.

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