Is Josh Allen really as INT prone as being made out to be? Spoiler Alert - NO

[Thurman#1]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

How could I possibly ignore the INTs lol

 

You bring them up every chance you can

 

 

When people want to ignore them and pooh-pooh them, yeah, I do. I want people to look at things in a balanced, reasonable way.

 

I also point out that he had a terrific game, in the same post, if I remember correctly.

 

Stop telling people to ignore what's behind the curtain and they'll stop being fascinated by it. 

 

 

[FireChans]

11 hours ago, Rew said:

While including all turnovers makes sense, any total turnover count still hides some data.  Using the same list that you provided, I tried to come up with a fair look at how likely someone is to turnover the ball and view on how likely they are to score a touchdown.  Basically, the combination of sacks/rushes/receptions turn into "other touches".  Fumble rate is lost fumbles on those touches.  turnover rate is ints and fumbles out of all plays where the QB didn't hand off the ball (throw/scramble/rush/receive).  touchdown rate is on the same basis as turnover rate.  This is still not perfect, as it doesn't account for kneeldowns and arm punts, but more complete then any of the other views bouncing around today.  I also wish I could find a publicly available breakdown of fumbles lost on sacks vs fumbles lost rushing, but no luck.

 

Out of this grouping of active players Allen is tasked with the 2nd highest total touch count (43 times per game). Allen is in the elite of the league (Rodgers/Mahomes/Allen) with how frequently their touches turn into touchdowns.  Allen's touches result in a turnover 2.4% of the time, which is on the higher end of the 2-2.5% grouping.  I ran numbers for a few other active players not on this list and they tend to be 2.5% on average with several in the 3-4% range and a few under 2%.  As an example of high turnovers on active players, Winston is at 3.7%.

 

In conclusion, Allen touches the ball more times per game than most active quarterbacks, he scores touchdowns at a frequency that puts him at an elite level, and he turns over the ball around league average but at a higher frequency than many of the other elite players.  In short, he is not at all representative of a "turnover machine", but he is also not a role model on elite ball security.

 

 

 

18 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It doesn't matter to these folks

 

They already don't care that Allen scores the most points in the league, or generates the most offensive value, or has one of the highest CPOE, or any number of metrics that put him at the top of the NFL rn...they also won't be satisfied if he isn't also lowest turnover rate in the league

 

Nothing but being at the absolute top of every statistical category, every single game of every single season is acceptable 

I just want Josh to either be better than Mahomes at TD/touch or TO/touch.

 

can’t be the best in the league and worse in most of the big categories.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

When people want to ignore them and pooh-pooh them, yeah, I do. I want people to look at things in a balanced, reasonable way.

 

I also point out that he had a terrific game, in the same post, if I remember correctly.

 

Stop telling people to ignore what's behind the curtain and they'll stop being fascinated by it. 

 

 

People are fascinated by whatever they see flashing on TV

 

And lmfao that the INTs are the part that's 'behind the curtain'

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

I just want Josh to either be better than Mahomes at TD/touch or TO/touch.

 

can’t be the best in the league and worse in most of the big categories.

How about TDs/game

 

And he is at the top of most important categories and worst in very few

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

People are fascinated by whatever they see flashing on TV

 

And lmfao that the INTs are the part that's 'behind the curtain'

How about TDs/game

 

And he is at the top of most important categories and worst in very few

He’s near the top. I want him to be the best. 
 

TD/touch is probably the best efficiency metric you can have for a QB. Not sure TD/game would be more relevant. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

He’s near the top. I want him to be the best. 
 

TD/touch is probably the best efficiency metric you can have for a QB. Not sure TD/game would be more relevant. 

Best efficiency metrics already exist

 

Among them any/a, 538 nflELO, EPA, value over avg etc etc

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Best efficiency metrics already exist

 

Among them any/a, 538 nflELO, EPA, value over avg etc etc

Josh doesn’t lead in ANY/A. Not even close.

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/best-average-net-yard-per-attempt-since-2020

Edited November 30, 2023 by FireChans

[Alphadawg7]

52 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Not everything, hell, not even this evidence suggests that Dorsey was a major issue for this. It just doesn't. 

 

Hi first very significant rise in percentage, a jump of 0.6 percent, happened under Daboll. Between Daboll's third and fourth years, Allen went from 7th best in the league at 1.6% to 18th best. Again, under Daboll, a major drop.

 

If Dorsey were the problem, his first year, when he took over from Daboll would see a major jump. But that's not what happened. He only got 0.2% worse. 

 

The difference between Dorsey's first and second years would not be significant if Dorsey were the main part of the problem. But in fact he went up 0.5%.

 

What all this tells us is that the ups and downs do NOT correlate well at all with the difference between Daboll and Dorsey. It tells us that it's likely something else. There's likely some effect from the OC, absolutely. But the biggest changes happened between two years when Daboll was coordinator and then again between two years when Dorsey was.

 

Something else is at play. Perhaps several things.

 

I have a guess, myself. Remember early in his career, when in the offseason Josh would go to work on improving one aspect of his game that needed work? Remember? One year it was deep ball accuracy, which improved greatly the next year. The year before that it was mechanics and footwork and using the turn of his torso to generate force. After that it was touch and accuracy on short passes, which also greatly improved. Remember that?

 

What did he work on the last couple of offseasons? We didn't hear much of anything. In his interview with that Dallas podcast he said this offseason he's just relaxing, getting healthy. Whisky was mentioned. This was the best way for him, he said. The switch in girlfriends was not really mentioned, but dating a movie star isn't concentrating on touch and accuracy on short passes.

 

Josh didn't used to get out-worked. These days, he is.

 

 

 

 

Again, the difference between Daboll's last year and Dorsey's first was statistically pretty much insignificant. 2.3% and 2.5%. If that were where the problem was, that's where we'd see the effects hit. We don't.

 

1. 2022 higher INT % than 2021.
2. 2023 even higher INT % than 2022.
3. Dorsey was the OC in 2022 and 2023 and it got worse both years.
4. In 2 games immediately following Dorseys dismissal
   1. Offense is avg 13 PPG more than Dorseys final 6.
      1. During those 6 games, Dorsey led offense faced the weakest stretch of oppoosition on our schedule.
      2. Brady led offense after being thrown in mid season is avg 33 PPG and faced much tougher defenses in Jets and Philly.
   2. The Offense has not scored less than 32, 7 points more than the highest output in Dorsey's final 6 games.
   3. VS Jets, Dorsey led offense was 1-2 and averaged 17.7 PPG...Under Brady, we scored 32 even though we took our foot off the gas for the entire 4th quarter in a blowout.  
   4. If you don't count the hail mary INT, Josh has 1 INT in 82 actual pass attempts which is a 1.2 INT% substantially lower than under Dorsey.  Even if you count the hail mary, he is still significantly lower these 2 games than he was with Dorsey this season.

There is no dismissing Dorsey from being a bit part of the problem.  Doesn't mean there were not other mistakes or issues...but all teams have those by all players.  But when the OC, or any coach, is fundamentally an issue then you will have inconsistency and players won't be in position to play their best.  And that was the biggest issue with Dorsey, he was in over his head as a first time OC.  Very well might learn what he needs to and grow and become a great OC one day, but he was hurting Allen and this offense and there is really no way refute that.  

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Josh doesn’t lead in ANY/A. Not even close.

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/best-average-net-yard-per-attempt-since-2020

Talking this year

[bigK14094]

Josh INT's are in several categories.  1. Bad throws...every Qb has.  2.  Bad judgements  every QB has  3. Bad breaks every  QB has 4.  Loose his head and tries to hard.  This one Josh does....but the Jets game stands out because of desperation throws that had no chance.  This one he can work on.

I would not want to see him stop being aggressive so I am not a big critic of the total INT level.  Fix the bad head moments by playing in control.  But, the fumbles....that need work as it is all head.  The muffed handoff to Cook was on Josh.  Loosing the ball running or getting sacked needs improvement.  All fixable.  GO JOSH!

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, bigK14094 said:

Josh INT's are in several categories.  1. Bad throws...every Qb has.  2.  Bad judgements  every QB has  3. Bad breaks every  QB has 4.  Loose his head and tries to hard.  This one Josh does....but the Jets game stands out because of desperation throws that had no chance.  This one he can work on.

I would not want to see him stop being aggressive so I am not a big critic of the total INT level.  Fix the bad head moments by playing in control.  But, the fumbles....that need work as it is all head.  The muffed handoff to Cook was on Josh.  Loosing the ball running or getting sacked needs improvement.  All fixable.  GO JOSH!

 

Kurt Warner did a big film break down on the Jets INT's and he felt that 2 of them were on the either play design or the WR's running poor routes because the spacing between WR's was key to why those INT's happened.  

 

And we saw multiple times throughout the season where spacing on routes were causing issues with Dorsey.  Then you add in Bills are 1-2 vs Jets (both losses to Wilson at QB) and avg 17.7 PPG with Dorsey at OC in 3 games never scoring over 20 and you see Brady led offense drop 32 in a game we probably score 40-50 had we not taken the foot off the gas for more than a quarter in a blow out win and it just lends even more credence to Dorsey being a big factor on the week 1 INT issues too.  

[julian]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

It doesn't matter to these folks

 

They already don't care that Allen scores the most points in the league, or generates the most offensive value, or has one of the highest CPOE, or any number of metrics that put him at the top of the NFL rn...they also won't be satisfied if he isn't also lowest turnover rate in the league

 

Nothing but being at the absolute top of every statistical category, every single game of every single season is acceptable 

Yeah it’s craziness, I’m probably defending Allen in a thread 2 or 3 times a week but it could be 2 or 3 a day if I didn’t force my self to just stay out of the fray.

 

 I’ve never enjoyed watching a Bills player as much as I have watching Allen in my 30+ years of fandom. He’s on my short list of greatest NFL entertainment of all time in no particular order.

 

Barry Sanders

Josh Allen

Brett Favre

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

22 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

He leads the league in turnovers every year. That’s not a coincidence. It’s facts

He doesnt even lead the league in turnovers the current year when you posted this 😂 some ‘facts’ you’ve got lol 

Edited November 30, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

17 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Just last year Dak threw more INT's then Allen playing in 5 less games.

 

What I find ridiculous is these trolling cretins make you have to defend A BUFFALO BILLS QB who is one of the top 2 QB's in the NFL on a Buffalo Bills message board.  What the FREAKING hell is that?

 

 

Player comparisons across teams are ridiculous enough in general…Josh is carrying more of the offensive load than any other player on any team and it’s not like his receivers are getting large amounts of separation consistently. Comparing his numbers on a stat sheet to mahomes just doesn’t even feel super relevant to me 

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[90sBills]

25 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

He doesnt even lead the league in turnovers the current year when you posted this 😂 some ‘facts’ you’ve got lol 

He led turnovers in 2022. He was leading this season as well until MNF when Dobbs threw 4 ints to overtake him. I have faith in our boy to get back the lead before season’s end. He seems very committed to throwing it to the other team. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

On 11/29/2023 at 3:27 PM, WotAGuy said:

I feel like statistical comparisons are more relevant against his peers than ex players.  The game has changed so much, even since Brees started playing. 

True, but Allen’s INT numbers aren’t drastically worse than his pass-attempt peers. 
 

Sadly this bad season has inflated his numbers. 
 

His TO numbers have been inflated due to a large about of lost fumbles, which is down to 3 this year (and still somehow leads the NFL). 
 

It sounds so lazy, but I really feel after listening to countless breakdowns… Allen’s TO issues are largely bad luck. I can’t even think of the last dropped INT. 

Edited November 30, 2023 by TheyCallMeAndy

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

8 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

He led turnovers in 2022. He was leading this season as well until MNF when Dobbs threw 4 ints to overtake him. I have faith in our boy to get back the lead before season’s end. He seems very committed to throwing it to the other team. 

He led by a whopping 1 last year and if josh dobbs ceased to exist he’d be leading by a whopping 1 this year with an extra game played on a lot of guys that are 2 behind  😂. That’s far from a guarantee he’ll lead it again the end of this year.  Y’all make it sound like he’s got 10 more than anyone else but really he’s right in line with a bunch of guys that get far less touches 

Edited November 30, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[90sBills]

2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

He led by a whopping 1 last year and if josh dobbs ceased to exist he’d be leading by a whopping 1 this year with an extra game played on a lot of guys that are 2 behind  😂. That’s far from a guarantee he’ll lead it again the end of this year.  Y’all make it sound like he’s got 10 more than anyone else but really he’s right in line with a bunch of guys that get far less touches 

I stated he led last season (fact) and given patterns this year he most likely will this season (tbd). Nothing more than that. Bolded part is just your assumption. 

[folz]

Look, we all want Josh to cut down on turnovers, but even with the turnovers, his positives way supersede his negatives.

 

Nice OP Alpha...I think you proved your point regarding Josh's interceptions pretty well. I just thought that I would satisfy some of your threads' critics with some stats that include, yes, FUMBLES/total turnovers:

 

 

Three QB comparison, last 4 years (2020-2023 seasons) [Didn't have time to do more than the 3 QBs, but figured it would be a good picture at least, 3 current top QBs]:

                         Total Attempts (pass + rush)              Total Turnovers (INTs + FL Lost)             Turnover %        Total TDs (pass + rush)          TD %               

Allen                                2,628                                                        74                                                2.8                                162                             6.2                    

Mahomes                        2,547                                                        53                                                2.1                                145                             5.7

Hurts                               1,879                                                         42                                                2.24                              99                              5.3

 

Averages per season (2020-2023):

                               Attempts               Total TOs            Total TDs

Allen                          657                        18.5                     40.5

Mahomes                  636.75                   13.25                  36.25

Hurts                         469.75                    10.5                    24.75

 

So, yes, Josh has a lot more turnovers than Mahomes and Hurts overall, but on more attempts and also with more TDs. His TO% is indeed the highest, but so is his TD%. [And as far as attempts go, Mahomes is too close to Josh for it to probably make any significant difference; but if Hurts had 750 more attempts, it is likely that his turnover % would go up from where it is---just by odds].

 

Josh averages 1.09 turnovers/game and 2.38 TDs/game

Pat averages .78 turnovers/game and 2.13 TDs/game

Jalen averages .62 turnovers/game and 1.46 TDs/game

 

So, in comparison to Mahomes, Josh has 5 more turnovers per season, and 4 more TDs per season

In comparison to Hurts, Josh has 8 more turnovers/season, but 16 more TDs per season

 

Do the turnovers hurt more than the TDs help? You tell me. But obviously, if Josh could cut down on the turnovers, he would be even more unstoppable.

 

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by folz

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

People are fascinated by whatever they see flashing on TV

 

And lmfao that the INTs are the part that's 'behind the curtain'

How about TDs/game

 

And he is at the top of most important categories and worst in very few

 

 

Nonsense. If people were fascinated by whatever they see flashing on TV, beer commercials would be bigger than football. The reason people are interested in INTs is that they are huge in terms of whether a team wins or loses. Turnover ratios are 

 

It's "behind the curtain in your posts and the posts of the other folks like you who want to ignore it.

 

TDs per game aren't nearly as big because a rushing TD is as good as a passing TD. A QB can have zero TDs and still have a great game and the offense can still be extremely productive. INTs are turnovers. Sorry, the two are not even close. A high TDs per game is generally good, but a low one doesn't necessarily mean anything bad.

 

INTs can and often do turn games around. That's why people focus on them.

 

As for good in some categories and bad in others? Yeah. That's why a balanced view is best. And yet unless reminded you only talk about the good ones. You make fun of people who try to look at both the bad and the good. You've got just as much tunnel vision as the folks who think only of INTs.

9 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

He led by a whopping 1 last year and if josh dobbs ceased to exist he’d be leading by a whopping 1 this year with an extra game played on a lot of guys that are 2 behind  😂. That’s far from a guarantee he’ll lead it again the end of this year.  Y’all make it sound like he’s got 10 more than anyone else but really he’s right in line with a bunch of guys that get far less touches 

 

 

One isn't much.

 

If he only had one, that'd be very little.

 

But his figure isn't "one." It's one more than the second-worst guy in the league. That's a lot, which is why nobody else has equalled it.

 

You have to look also at how productive he is, (very productive) but having the most turnovers is a very bad thing.

[Dr.Sack]

Get rid of Gabe Davis as I believe the majority of the picks happen when throwing to him. It seems outside of his league leading WR blocking Davis is holding back the offense in a significant way.

[Aussie Joe]

37 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Get rid of Gabe Davis as I believe the majority of the picks happen when throwing to him. It seems outside of his league leading WR blocking Davis is holding back the offense in a significant way.

Davis is gone next year 

 

Possible escape goat alert 

[Alphadawg7]

On 11/30/2023 at 1:22 PM, folz said:

Look, we all want Josh to cut down on turnovers, but even with the turnovers, his positives way supersede his negatives.

 

Nice OP Alpha...I think you proved your point regarding Josh's interceptions pretty well. I just thought that I would satisfy some of your threads' critics with some stats that include, yes, FUMBLES/total turnovers:

 

 

Three QB comparison, last 4 years (2020-2023 seasons) [Didn't have time to do more than the 3 QBs, but figured it would be a good picture at least, 3 current top QBs]:

                         Total Attempts (pass + rush)              Total Turnovers (INTs + FL Lost)             Turnover %        Total TDs (pass + rush)          TD %               

Allen                                2,628                                                        74                                                2.8                                162                             6.2                    

Mahomes                        2,547                                                        53                                                2.1                                145                             5.7

Hurts                               1,879                                                         42                                                2.24                              99                              5.3

 

Averages per season (2020-2023):

                               Attempts               Total TOs            Total TDs

Allen                          657                        18.5                     40.5

Mahomes                  636.75                   13.25                  36.25

Hurts                         469.75                    10.5                    24.75

 

So, yes, Josh has a lot more turnovers than Mahomes and Hurts overall, but on more attempts and also with more TDs. His TO% is indeed the highest, but so is his TD%. [And as far as attempts go, Mahomes is too close to Josh for it to probably make any significant difference; but if Hurts had 750 more attempts, it is likely that his turnover % would go up from where it is---just by odds].

 

Josh averages 1.09 turnovers/game and 2.38 TDs/game

Pat averages .78 turnovers/game and 2.13 TDs/game

Jalen averages .62 turnovers/game and 1.46 TDs/game

 

So, in comparison to Mahomes, Josh has 5 more turnovers per season, and 4 more TDs per season

In comparison to Hurts, Josh has 8 more turnovers/season, but 16 more TDs per season

 

Do the turnovers hurt more than the TDs help? You tell me. But obviously, if Josh could cut down on the turnovers, he would be even more unstoppable.

 

 

 

Interesting, and thanks.  Good work here

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 11/29/2023 at 1:04 PM, Matt_In_NH said:

I make this argument all the time but people dont want to hear it.  However his INT% is going up not down.  This year his INT rate is up to 3.0% which is too high.  In 2020 it was 1.7% which should be close to his target.  

 

Same for Mahomes. Same for a lot of QB's this year actually. It's been a pretty big talking point this year that defenses are back more than ever. Hurts, Mahomes, Tua and Allen all have higher INT% this year compared to last year.

 

You are correct though that Allen has had a steady climb in his INT% the last three seasons. 

 

His fumbles are way down this year. Only four so far this year through 12 games when he had 13 last year in 16 games.  And I don't think that is just a case of him having half the rushing attempts he would on a normal season the last three years. A good majority of Allen's fumbles would come from center/snap exchange, hand offs or pressures behind the line of scrimmage. Those plays still happen every game but he is fumbling the ball less so far. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 11/30/2023 at 9:59 AM, FireChans said:

Josh doesn’t lead in ANY/A. Not even close.

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/best-average-net-yard-per-attempt-since-2020

 

You continue to have odd definitions of "close" and "almost" 

 

In one thread you claim 20 turnovers is almost 44 TD's and 96 turnovers is almost 210 TD's despite the larger numbers being over 100% greater than the smaller. numbers.

 

In this thread, 2,141 (Allen) is not even close to 2,251 (Herbert) despite just a 5% difference. Mahomes is third by the way at 2,228. 

Edited December 2, 2023 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[Dillenger4]

I think Josh is awesome but he does have a tendency to throw interceptions at the worst time possible. Example, late in a game when the score is close when we are driving. All of the stats above are useless actually. It's like defending a hockey player saying they are a great goal scorer with lot's of goals but they scored two hatricks in a row 10 games ago and nothing in between. Josh is great but let's face it - he has the most turnovers in NFL history. Fact. If he cuts down on the TO we are winning. Joe has him in tune it seems. Looking forward to the Chiefs game! We win that and it's on!

[FireChans]

12 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

You continue to have odd definitions of "close" and "almost" 

 

In one thread you claim 20 turnovers is almost 44 TD's and 96 turnovers is almost 210 TD's despite the larger numbers being over 100% greater than the smaller. numbers.

 

In this thread, 2,141 (Allen) is not even close to 2,251 (Herbert) despite just a 5% difference. Mahomes is third by the way at 2,228. 

You are reading the graphic wrong. You need to sort by average.

 

Josh Allen is 17th btw. I consider that "not even close" to first in a 32 team league.

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

I think Josh is awesome but he does have a tendency to throw interceptions at the worst time possible. Example, late in a game when the score is close when we are driving. All of the stats above are useless actually. It's like defending a hockey player saying they are a great goal scorer with lot's of goals but they scored two hatricks in a row 10 games ago and nothing in between. Josh is great but let's face it - he has the most turnovers in NFL history. Fact. If he cuts down on the TO we are winning. Joe has him in tune it seems. Looking forward to the Chiefs game! We win that and it's on!

 

By the same standard he also has the most TD's in NFL history. And he's pretty consistent with his TD's (and turnovers). It's not case of Allen racking up a couple 5 TD games and then having a streak of 1 TD games in between. 

[Dillenger4]

4 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

By the same standard he also has the most TD's in NFL history. And he's pretty consistent with his TD's (and turnovers). It's not case of Allen racking up a couple 5 TD games and then having a streak of 1 TD games in between. 

This year it is... but I hear ya. Point was, you can use stats to piant it any way you want. we are 6-6, not on Josh but some might be. But I feel he is back! Let's hope so.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

You are reading the graphic wrong. You need to sort by average.

 

Josh Allen is 17th btw. I consider that "not even close" to first in a 32 team league.

 

 

I'm not sure that is correct Chan. AVG in that spreadsheet is simply YPA, i checked.

 

YPA is different than ANY/A

[FireChans]

32 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I'm not sure that is correct Chan. AVG in that spreadsheet is simply YPA, i checked.

 

YPA is different than ANY/A

You're right! Dang.

34 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I'm not sure that is correct Chan. AVG in that spreadsheet is simply YPA, i checked.

 

YPA is different than ANY/A

 

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

You're right! Dang.

What about this one?

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/best-net-yard-per-attempt-since-2020-of-quarterbacks

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

17 minutes ago, FireChans said:

You're right! Dang.

 

What about this one?

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/best-net-yard-per-attempt-since-2020-of-quarterbacks

 

 

Not sure how the same question is asked and two different answers result. 

 

Even on this second one Allen is like 5th overall after we adjust for games played (minimum 45 to include Dak) throwing out the QB's who have played far less games. And still of the four ahead of Allen; Dak (45), Rodgers (50) and Tua (47) still have a fairly significantly smaller sample size than both Mahomes and Allen at 60 and 61 games respectively.

[GoBills808]

Allen's 2023 campaign thus far:

 

1st in Value vs Avg

4th in CPOE

2nd in succes rate

1st in 538 ELOmodel

2nd in total EPA

1st in Win%added

 

this is the statistical profile of the best QB in the league

 

 

 

Edited December 2, 2023 by GoBills808
changed from mvp to best qb in the league because mvp is record dependent

[FireChans]

36 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Allen's 2023 campaign thus far:

 

1st in Value vs Avg

4th in CPOE

2nd in succes rate

1st in 538 ELOmodel

2nd in total EPA

1st in Win%added

 

this is the statistical profile of the best QB in the league

 

 

 

Would mean more compared to his peers to see how they rank.

[GoBills808]

Just now, FireChans said:

Would mean more compared to his peers to see how they rank.

that is compared to his peers

[FireChans]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

that is compared to his peers

No, ,what I'm saying if it's:

 

Josh:

1st in Value vs Avg

4th in CPOE

2nd in succes rate

1st in 538 ELOmodel

2nd in total EPA

1st in Win%added

 

Pat:

2nd in Value vs Avg

1st in CPOE

1st in succes rate

2nd in 538 ELOmodel

1st in total EPA

2nd in Win%added

 

then there's a debate there imo.

[GoBills808]

Just now, FireChans said:

No, ,what I'm saying if it's:

 

Josh:

1st in Value vs Avg

4th in CPOE

2nd in succes rate

1st in 538 ELOmodel

2nd in total EPA

1st in Win%added

 

Pat:

2nd in Value vs Avg

1st in CPOE

1st in succes rate

2nd in 538 ELOmodel

1st in total EPA

2nd in Win%added

 

then there's a debate there imo.

Mahomes:

 

2nd in Value vs Avg

11th in CPOE

5th in success rate

3rd in ELO

6th total EPA

9th in Win%added

[FireChans]

On 12/1/2023 at 1:15 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Nonsense. If people were fascinated by whatever they see flashing on TV, beer commercials would be bigger than football. The reason people are interested in INTs is that they are huge in terms of whether a team wins or loses. Turnover ratios are 

 

It's "behind the curtain in your posts and the posts of the other folks like you who want to ignore it.

 

TDs per game aren't nearly as big because a rushing TD is as good as a passing TD. A QB can have zero TDs and still have a great game and the offense can still be extremely productive. INTs are turnovers. Sorry, the two are not even close. A high TDs per game is generally good, but a low one doesn't necessarily mean anything bad.

 

INTs can and often do turn games around. That's why people focus on them.

 

As for good in some categories and bad in others? Yeah. That's why a balanced view is best. And yet unless reminded you only talk about the good ones. You make fun of people who try to look at both the bad and the good. You've got just as much tunnel vision as the folks who think only of INTs.

 

 

One isn't much.

 

If he only had one, that'd be very little.

 

But his figure isn't "one." It's one more than the second-worst guy in the league. That's a lot, which is why nobody else has equalled it.

 

You have to look also at how productive he is, (very productive) but having the most turnovers is a very bad thing.

To bring this topic back to INT's:

 

From an overall INT% metric, Josh's 3% this season puts him in the company of Desmond RIdder (not an NFL QB) and only slight better than Aidan O'Connell and Mac Jones.

[Matt_In_NH]

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Same for Mahomes. Same for a lot of QB's this year actually. It's been a pretty big talking point this year that defenses are back more than ever. Hurts, Mahomes, Tua and Allen all have higher INT% this year compared to last year.

 

You are correct though that Allen has had a steady climb in his INT% the last three seasons. 

 

His fumbles are way down this year. Only four so far this year through 12 games when he had 13 last year in 16 games.  And I don't think that is just a case of him having half the rushing attempts he would on a normal season the last three years. A good majority of Allen's fumbles would come from center/snap exchange, hand offs or pressures behind the line of scrimmage. Those plays still happen every game but he is fumbling the ball less so far. 

Except Mahomes 2023 INT% is less than Allen's career percentage.  Mahomes INT% is less this year than Allen;s was last year also.  Mahomes has less INT's than Allen in every year except one in which they tied and Allen played 6 less games.  Over their careers Allen has lost 26 fumbles in 89 games to Mahomes 12 fumbles in 91 games.   The facts are that Allen turns the ball over at a higher rate than his elite peers and he is capable of decreasing them and he should work at that.  That does not mean Allen sucks or anything, I think it is overblown to an extent but it is true.  It is also true that he has more total touchdowns than anyone else the last 3.5 years, the last game they actually said that, usually that is never mentioned.