Season on the Brink

[Casey D]

5-4 with eight games to play.  Not where we thought this team would be.  Not where anybody thought they would be. So where do the Bills go from here.

 

First, the overwhelming emotions that the Bills are done because they lost to Cincinnati on the road are overblown.  Given how all teams are playing so far in 2023, this looked like the toughest game left on the schedule, and most figured they would lose.  So it's not this game, but the overall play the last five weeks.  And the one game the Bills surely would like to have back is the Pats loss-- that was a killer.  Other than that, losing to Jax in London given how the NFL set up that game was also surely a loss too.  So here they are, 5-4, the current 8 seed and out of the playoffs, looking up at teams like Pittsburgh and Cleveland.  So what is next.

 

The Bills have an opportunity now to reset and reemerge in the playoff discussion.  Or this could end up being a lost season, and a reboot will be required to get this team to the upper echelons in 2024 and 2025.  Allen is not going anywhere at 27, and the great Bills teams of the early 1990s began after Kelly turned 30. And with the QB, you will always be good, if not great. So no window is closing IMO overall.

 

So the Bills have two beatable opponents coming up, and a good chance to experiment on offense and to try and find themselves.  They get to do it without crowd noise-- which I think impacted the up-tempo offense in Cincinnati (Allen could not stand at the line and bark out signals as he did against Tampa).  But the Bills can try and get this down at home in the next two weeks, and then try to take it on the road where communication is more difficult.

 

Anyway, since this is all just entertainment and not life and death, I am going to just enjoy the ride for now and see what happens.  We have a lot of strong players on this team, and now we get to see what they are made of in a crisis.  Because it is a crisis.  The next two weeks are must win games, and they need to get their offensive act together and playing Denver first, who Miami beat with 70 points, is a good place to start.  Then a huge step up in class against a really good Jets defense.  We will learn if they are learning.

 

Either they will regroup and find their game, or they won't.  I'm all in for now, but the next two weeks will be the crucible for the gauntlet that is the last six weeks of the season.  It will either be a blast, of I can look to do other things than hanging on what the Bills do during the holidays.  Truly a season on the brink IMO.  

Edited November 7, 2023 by Casey D

[zow2]

As Tony Dungy used to always say,  You need to play your best football in Nov/Dec.   So they better get their act together against Denver and go from there.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Casey D said:

5-4 with eight games to play.  Not where we thought this team would be.  Not where anybody thought they would ne. So where do the Bills go from here.

 

First, the overwhelming emotions that the Bills are done because they lost to Cincinnati on the road are overblown.  Given how all teams are playing so far in 2023, this looked like the toughest game left on the schedule, and most figured they would lose.  So it's not this game, but the overall play the last five weeks.  And the one game the Bills surely would like to have back is the Pats loss-- that was a killer.  Other than that, losing to Jax in London given how the NFL set up that game was also surely a loss too.  So here they are, 5-4, the current 8 seed and out of the playoffs, looking up at teams like Pittsburgh and Cleveland.  So what is next.

 

So at the 8-1 Eagles and 7-2 Chiefs aren't tougher games with the way our team is playing? Sorry, I must push back on that. There is a reason why I say that we're already over the cliff and not on the brink anymore... the next three out of four games are brutal- Jets, at Eagles and at Chiefs. I just cannot share your optimism at all with this season... as different as the Eagles and Chiefs have looked this season, we are not capable of overcoming the one advantage they have- THEY WIN the big games they are supposed to and we do NOT.

Edited November 7, 2023 by EasternOHBillsFan

[Casey D]

3 minutes ago, zow2 said:

As Tony Dungy used to always say,  You need to play your best football in Nov/Dec.   So they better get their act together against Denver and go from there.

Totally agree.  Things can change a lot between now and January.  Seems to me if they can turn this around a bit then the final 5 game stretch will be pre-playoffs playoffs.  But it remains to be seen if they can change or if this is a lost season.

[ddaryl]

I'm now more concerned with how we right this ship in the next 2 years and take advantage of JA's career back 9.

Coaching changes and Beane has to be willing to make some tough decisions regarding players and then he has to draft better.

I just don't see this team, righting this ship, this year. My optomism is not blind. There is an underlying fundamental problem and you have to look at common denominators

[Casey D]

3 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

So at the 8-1 Eagles and 7-2 Chiefs aren't tougher games with the way our team is playing? Sorry, I must push back on that. There is a reason why I say that we're already over the cliff and not on the brink anymore... the next three out of four games are brutal- Jets, at Eagles and at Chiefs. I just cannot share your optimism at all with this season... as different as the Eagles and Chiefs have looked this season, we are not capable of overcoming the one advantage they have- THEY WIN the big games they are supposed to and we do NOT.

I am not optimistic per se, just stating facts.  Even if they improve, KC and Eagles are likely losses on the road. 

 

I am just choosing for now not to be as unhappy as you are about the team.  If you feel that pessimistic, then just tune the team out for a while, see the results, and if your prognosis is correct you can stay tuned out.  No need to let something like football make you feel bad needlessly.  Because if I do not see wins and improvements the next two weeks, I will make myself turn to other pursuits.  Should not let entertainment make you feel bad. 

1 minute ago, ddaryl said:

I'm now more concerned with how we right this ship in the next 2 years and take advantage of JA's career back 9.

Coaching changes and Beane has to be willing to make some tough decisions regarding players and then he has to draft better.

I just don't see this team, righting this ship, this year. My optomism is not blind. There is an underlying fundamental problem and you have to look at common denominators

I agree to an extent.  Something is not right with this team right now.  I do not know if it is fixable or something more deep rooted.  No one outside the team itself does. I am willing to see.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

Just now, Casey D said:

I am not optimistic per se, just stating facts.  Even if they improve, KC and Eagles are likely losses on the road. 

 

I am just choosing for now not to be as unhappy as you are about the team.  If you feel that pessimistic, then just tune the team out for a while, see the results, and if your prognosis is correct you can stay tuned out.  No need to let something like football make you feel bad needlessly.  Because if I do not see wins and improvements the next two weeks, I will make myself turn to other pursuits.  Should not let entertainment make you feel bad. 

 

ACTUALLY, I am feeling a lot better because the losing of the Phins and Jets are providing me with a lot of laughs... believe me, I'm good. My wife was really surprised as to how calm on Monday morning... I expected the loss because this team isn't being coached well enough to win. Thanks though... I get your sentiment.

[VaMilBill]

I don’t know how you could have any optimism. For 5 straight weeks our offense has been bad. We have the firepower, but get little production out of it. 
 

On top of that, we are going into a much tougher portion of our schedule. I can’t imagine us beating KC or the Eagles….Dallas for that matter too. And I think playing Miami in Miami with a completely different, and weaker, defense than the first game, I see that as a loss too. 
 

This team isn’t in a rut. It is just a mediocre team. 

[gordong]

stick a fork in them...they are getting a nice top 10 draft pick. hopefully a WR like they SHOULD have gotten this off season. 

 

they will most likely go 2-6 the remaining way...    the defense is a hot mess...  and the offense is worse. 

Edited November 7, 2023 by gordong

[Casey D]

Just now, gordong said:

stick a fork in them...they are getting a nice top 10 draft pick. hopefully a WR like they SHOULD have gotten this off season. 

If you think that, you should make a large wager.  No way they have a top 10 pick.  Zero.

 

3 minutes ago, VaMilBill said:

I don’t know how you could have any optimism. For 5 straight weeks our offense has been bad. We have the firepower, but get little production out of it. 
 

On top of that, we are going into a much tougher portion of our schedule. I can’t imagine us beating KC or the Eagles….Dallas for that matter too. And I think playing Miami in Miami with a completely different, and weaker, defense than the first game, I see that as a loss too. 
 

This team isn’t in a rut. It is just a mediocre team. 

Then you should forget about the team for now and do something more enjoyable than investing emotional effort on an underperforming mediocre team.  Life is too short.  

[Einstein]

If we can win the next two (Broncos/Jets) I think we will be okay.

 

That would put us at 7-4, needing to go 4-2 or 3-3 the rest of the way.

 

Perhaps 4-2 is a more realistic need, since we lose a lot of tiebreakers at this point. 

[May Day 10]

I have said it in a different thread.  

 

They arent well, and now are entering the tough parts of their schedule.

 

9-8 is probably the most likely outcome based on opponents and the Bills' body of work this season.  10-7 would be decent, but likely misses the playoffs due to their results vs other AFC teams already.  11-6?  That would require a 6-2 record against Denver, Jets, @ Eagles, @ Chiefs, Cowboys, Patriots, Chargers, @ Dolphins.  Are there 6 wins there?  

 

I will say, if this team turns it around and does goes 6-2 with that schedule, look out in the playoffs because they will have figured it out and will be playing well.  I just cant imagine them winning 6 of those looking back at the past month and a half.  It is broken

 

Ill also add that the Broncos are no joke now and are coming off a bye, and the Jets defense has the Bills dialed up.  If those games go poorly, I can see the thing really coming off the rails and drama will rear its head

Edited November 7, 2023 by May Day 10

[The Jokeman]

Just now, May Day 10 said:

I have said it in a different thread.  

 

They arent well, and now are entering the tough parts of their schedule.

 

9-8 is probably the most likely outcome based on opponents and the Bills' body of work this season.  10-7 would be decent, but likely misses the playoffs due to their results vs other AFC teams already.  11-6?  That would require a 6-2 record against Denver, Jets, @ Eagles, @ Chiefs, Cowboys, Patriots, Chargers, @ Dolphins.  Are there 6 wins there?  

 

I will say, if this team turns it around and does goes 6-2 with that schedule, look out in the playoffs because they will have figured it out and will be playing well.  I just cant imagine them winning 6 of those looking back at the past month and a half.  It is broken

If we can beat Miami, New England and the Jets and find a way to 10 or more wins in total we should have the AFC East. If/when the playoffs get here, who knows what will happen. 

[Charles Romes]

The gauntlet schedule is a blessing. They have no choice but to be focused or get embarrassed.  If they manage to sneak in they will be a battle tested very-tough out. 

[Casey D]

4 minutes ago, May Day 10 said:

I have said it in a different thread.  

 

They arent well, and now are entering the tough parts of their schedule.

 

9-8 is probably the most likely outcome based on opponents and the Bills' body of work this season.  10-7 would be decent, but likely misses the playoffs due to their results vs other AFC teams already.  11-6?  That would require a 6-2 record against Denver, Jets, @ Eagles, @ Chiefs, Cowboys, Patriots, Chargers, @ Dolphins.  Are there 6 wins there?  

 

I will say, if this team turns it around and does goes 6-2 with that schedule, look out in the playoffs because they will have figured it out and will be playing well.  I just cant imagine them winning 6 of those looking back at the past month and a half.  It is broken

 

Ill also add that the Broncos are no joke now and are coming off a bye, and the Jets defense has the Bills dialed up.  If those games go poorly, I can see the thing really coming off the rails and drama will rear its head

10-7 will make the playoffs-- any combination.  95% chance on NYT predictor.  Like last year some 9 win teams will get wild card slots, like Miami and NYG last year.  

[May Day 10]

3 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

If we can beat Miami, New England and the Jets and find a way to 10 or more wins in total we should have the AFC East. If/when the playoffs get here, who knows what will happen. 

 

Assuming the Bills win those games and get to those 10 wins (taking 2 of Cowboys, Chargers, Chiefs, Eagles, Broncos)

 

We need Miami to lose 3 against (Raiders, Jets, Commanders, Titans, Jets, Cowboys, Ravens)

 

Maybe?  I can see the Jets bonking them once.  Maybe the Ravens and Cowboys?  

 

[SCBills]

25 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

So at the 8-1 Eagles and 7-2 Chiefs aren't tougher games with the way our team is playing? Sorry, I must push back on that. There is a reason why I say that we're already over the cliff and not on the brink anymore... the next three out of four games are brutal- Jets, at Eagles and at Chiefs. I just cannot share your optimism at all with this season... as different as the Eagles and Chiefs have looked this season, we are not capable of overcoming the one advantage they have- THEY WIN the big games they are supposed to and we do NOT.

 

I've been pretty critical of this team for much of the year, but the OP is correct..  At Cinci was always the toughest game on our schedule.

 

We obviously have to win the next two and figure some things out over these coming weeks, but I feel way more confident in us beating Philly in Philly and/or KC in KC.

 

When you play teams also matters..  Right now we're wounded and the replacements aren't up to speed.  We caught Cinci at the exact moment they started putting it together.   Philly and KC don't look all that great for their records, and maybe they pull it together and look unstoppable just in time for us to play them as well.. but you never know until the game occurs, and on paper, we match up far better against them than CIN.

 

CIN has a QB who will always take what's given, a power running game and elite WR's all over the place.  He has a great mind on Offense and one of the best big game DC's in the league... and one who runs concepts, with personnel, that clearly affect what we want to do.   They are, as it stands, our toughest matchup. 

[May Day 10]

1 minute ago, Casey D said:

10-7 will make the playoffs-- any combination.  95% chance on NYT predictor.  Like last year some 9 win teams will get wild card slots, like Miami and NYG last year.  

 

Is that really for the Bills?  I wanted to check but its behind a paywall.  The AFC record made me wonder how that would look 

 

I guess that Chargers game could be really big for a tiebreaker.  Especially with a loss against the Bengals already, who may also be a wildcard team.  

[Fr. Jerk]

Win out, ya dig?

[Casey D]

1 minute ago, May Day 10 said:

 

Is that really for the Bills?  I wanted to check but its behind a paywall.  The AFC record made me wonder how that would look 

 

I guess that Chargers game could be really big for a tiebreaker.  Especially with a loss against the Bengals already, who may also be a wildcard team.  

It likely won't come down to tiebreakers.  There almost certainly will not be 4 teams in AFC non-division winners.  Bills won't make it with 9 wins due to tiebreakers however.