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Numbers suggest your narratives are wrong on the offense.


BuffaloBillyG

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Came across the following tweet. Pulled the numbers out so they are front and center.  Credit to "Rico" for doing the leg work. But I have seen a LOT of common themes parroted today and the numbers show that for the most part the opinions of some (including some opinions I've had) may not be fully true.

 

 

First off...the new narrative that Josh is suddenly force feeding Diggs and only Diggs the ball to keep him happy. Through 6 games Diggs has only 1 more target than last year. My theory is that the perception that Allen is forcing Diggs the ball more has to do with the lack of targets for Stef at the end of the year.

 

After 6 weeks 
5-1 record.              4-2 Record 
#Diggs  22'             Diggs  23'
65 targets               66 targets 
49 recs                    49 Rec 
6tds                           5tds

 

Second...Gabe Davis hasn't improved. That's another false narrative IMO that the numbers seemingly back up. This time last year Dais had a 53% catch rate. Through the same amount of games his rate has jumped to 70%. Most of his catches have gone for 1st downs or TDs. He has been a HIGHLY efficient player so far this year. I have checked 3 sources this morning and have seen him "credited" with TWO official drops this year on one of them and ONE in the other two. If someone can provide another official source that is higher, please do. His fumble last night was just the third time in his career he's fumbled  and it was an excellent play by the defense. Gabe Davis is NOT the problem.

 

#Davis 22'.             Davis 23'
26 targets              30 Targets
14 Rec                      21 rec
4tds                          4tds

 

Third...Knox has to be a blocker all the time now. And while it's true he is asked to chip a fair amount...he still runs a pass pattern after most times. He's actually had 5 more targets this year. His problem has been he's not making the tough catches we are used to seeing him make. 

 

#Knox 22'               Knox 23'
20 Targets              25 Targets
15 rec                        14 Rec
1TD                             1TD

 

Fourth...slot receiver has been a bust. True, yet maybe a bit too early to lose hope. Notable with Kincaid missing last night he's only got 5 games in. I would have expected a few balls his way to raise these numbers, but the fact of the matter is while the TDa haven't been there (yet) and his opportunity hasn't been as high, he's actually been much more efficient than what we had in the slot last year. He's a rookie still figuring things out. I think the best is yet to come here.

 

#Mckenzie 22'       #Kincaid 23'
26 targets               19 Targets
17 Rec                       17 Rec
3tds                           0 TDs   

Edited by BuffaloBillyG
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4 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Came across the following tweet. Pulled the numbers out so they are front and center.  Credit to "Rico" for doing the leg work. But I have seen a LOT of common themes parroted today and the numbers show that for the most part the opinions of some (including some opinions I've had) may not be fully true.

 

 

First off...the new narrative that Josh is suddenly force feeding Diggs and only Diggs the ball to keep him happy. Through 6 games Diggs has only 1 more target than last year. My theory is that the perception that Allen is forcing Diggs the ball more has to do with the lack of targets for Stef at the end of the year.

 

After 6 weeks 
5-1 record.              4-2 Record 
#Diggs  22'             Diggs  23'
65 targets               66 targets 
49 recs                    49 Rec 
6tds                           5tds

 

Second...Gabe Davis hasn't improved. That's another false narrative IMO that the numbers seemingly back up. This time last year Dais had a 53% catch rate. Through the same amount of games his rate has jumped to 70%. Most of his catches have gone for 1st downs or TDs. He has been a HIGHLY efficient player so far this year. I have checked 3 sources this morning and have seen him "credited" with TWO official drops this year on one of them and ONE in the other two. If someone can provide another official source that is higher, please do. His fumble last night was just the third time in his career he's fumbled  and it was an excellent play by the defense. Gabe Davis is NOT the problem.

 

#Davis 22'.             Davis 23'
26 targets              30 Targets
14 Rec                      21 rec
4tds                          4tds

 

Third...Knox has to be a blocker all the time now. And while it's true he is asked to chip a fair amount...he still runs a pass pattern after most times. He's actually had 5 more targets this year. His problem has been he's not making the tough catches we are used to seeing him make. 

 

#Knox 22'               Knox 23'
20 Targets              25 Targets
15 rec                        14 Rec
1TD                             1TD

 

Fourth...slot receiver has been a bust. True, yet maybe a bit too early to lose hope. Notable with Kincaid missing last night he's only got 5 games in. I would have expected a few balls his way to raise these numbers, but the fact of the matter is while the TDa haven't been there (yet) and his opportunity hasn't been as high, he's actually been much more efficient than what we had in the slot last year. He's a rookie still figuring things out. I think the best is yet to come here.

 

#Mckenzie 22'       #Kincaid 23'
26 targets               19 Targets
17 Rec                       17 Rec
3tds                           0 TDs   

 

Slot receiver seems to be multiple people so it's not really fair to compare McKenzie alone to Kincaid sionce McKenzie was pretty much in the slot every play last year...would be more accurate to compare McKenzie to Kincaid+Harty+Shakir.

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Just now, Big Turk said:

 

Slot receiver seems to be multiple people so it's not really fair to compare McKenzie alone to Kincaid sionce McKenzie was pretty much in the slot every play last year...would be more accurate to compare McKenzie to Kincaid+Harty+Shakir.

Fair point to make, however this time last year there were other guys taking snaps in the slot than McKenzie as well. Crowder was in the mix as well. Kumerow had taken snaps there. So I think it sort of evens out, myself.

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2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Slot receiver seems to be multiple people so it's not really fair to compare McKenzie alone to Kincaid sionce McKenzie was pretty much in the slot every play last year...would be more accurate to compare McKenzie to Kincaid+Harty+Shakir.

 

And Diggs, who also carries some of that load.

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6 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Also, as one in the comments section notes, run game is FAR improved over last year, by the naked eye

 

 

LOL, that was worse to stick that last part in there.  😁

 

Well see what comes back.  

 

 

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Personally I don't see anything wrong with Diggs being the focal point of the passing game -- I mean, that's what he's here for. He's also our most reliable catcher and it's not particularly close comparing him to any of the other options. 

 

Especially if he's in an exploitable matchup. There are plenty of DB's he can take to school, and frequently does so when its 1-vs-1. 

 

But the offense clearly lacks creativity in scheming up plays for our depth players: We have no "gadget" plays. We have zero screen game. Our dual-threat TE's are outlet options only. We don't just need more consistently from our 2nd and 3rd options, we need plays designed to exploit their strengths. 

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12 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Came across the following tweet. Pulled the numbers out so they are front and center.  Credit to "Rico" for doing the leg work. But I have seen a LOT of common themes parroted today and the numbers show that for the most part the opinions of some (including some opinions I've had) may not be fully true.

 

 

First off...the new narrative that Josh is suddenly force feeding Diggs and only Diggs the ball to keep him happy. Through 6 games Diggs has only 1 more target than last year. My theory is that the perception that Allen is forcing Diggs the ball more has to do with the lack of targets for Stef at the end of the year.

 

After 6 weeks 
5-1 record.              4-2 Record 
#Diggs  22'             Diggs  23'
65 targets               66 targets 
49 recs                    49 Rec 
6tds                           5tds

 

Second...Gabe Davis hasn't improved. That's another false narrative IMO that the numbers seemingly back up. This time last year Dais had a 53% catch rate. Through the same amount of games his rate has jumped to 70%. Most of his catches have gone for 1st downs or TDs. He has been a HIGHLY efficient player so far this year. I have checked 3 sources this morning and have seen him "credited" with TWO official drops this year on one of them and ONE in the other two. If someone can provide another official source that is higher, please do. His fumble last night was just the third time in his career he's fumbled  and it was an excellent play by the defense. Gabe Davis is NOT the problem.

 

#Davis 22'.             Davis 23'
26 targets              30 Targets
14 Rec                      21 rec
4tds                          4tds

 

Third...Knox has to be a blocker all the time now. And while it's true he is asked to chip a fair amount...he still runs a pass pattern after most times. He's actually had 5 more targets this year. His problem has been he's not making the tough catches we are used to seeing him make. 

 

#Knox 22'               Knox 23'
20 Targets              25 Targets
15 rec                        14 Rec
1TD                             1TD

 

Fourth...slot receiver has been a bust. True, yet maybe a bit too early to lose hope. Notable with Kincaid missing last night he's only got 5 games in. I would have expected a few balls his way to raise these numbers, but the fact of the matter is while the TDa haven't been there (yet) and his opportunity hasn't been as high, he's actually been much more efficient than what we had in the slot last year. He's a rookie still figuring things out. I think the best is yet to come here.

 

#Mckenzie 22'       #Kincaid 23'
26 targets               19 Targets
17 Rec                       17 Rec
3tds                           0 TDs   

Looks like you're saying people here aren't as smart as they think they are. Totally agree!!

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10 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Slot receiver seems to be multiple people so it's not really fair to compare McKenzie alone to Kincaid sionce McKenzie was pretty much in the slot every play last year...would be more accurate to compare McKenzie to Kincaid+Harty+Shakir.

So add like 3 catches and 1 TD. Lol

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13 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Slot receiver seems to be multiple people so it's not really fair to compare McKenzie alone to Kincaid sionce McKenzie was pretty much in the slot every play last year...would be more accurate to compare McKenzie to Kincaid+Harty+Shakir.


McKittrick was a first down machine.  I'd like to see the FD stats between McKittrick and the slot committee. That's what the Bills are really missing right now, the ability to move the chains. 

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Just now, Freddie's Dead said:


McKittrick was a first down machine.  I'd like to see the FD stats between McKittrick and the slot committee. That's what the Bills are really missing right now, the ability to move the chains. 

 

That's what is revealing about the stats in the OP Davis Diggs Knox all with about the same production and the Bills are obviously running it better. The "missing" piece is the slot 

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18 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Also, as one in the comments section notes, run game is FAR improved over last year, by the naked eye

 

So weird I really thought the offensive line turned the corner in a well rounded way but it appears to be mostly in run blocking.  The jags were wise to this and absolutely loaded the box knowing their rushers would get home on a passing play anyway…probably could’ve stood to run the ball more against the giants but to really commit to the run I feel like you’ve gotta be confident you can pick up a 3rd and medium passing the football and that did not seem to be the case last night 

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8 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

My narrative is that our offense is vanilla, abandons the run when it shouldn’t, is predictable and lacks creativity. 

And those are also fair points. Especially when it comes to abandon the run. Just look at the Giants last night. Got shut down all night...but stuck with it and it paid off. 

4 minutes ago, SinatraSinger said:

Are you saying that you don't think that Josh force fed Diggs last night.  Josh had 30 attempts and 16 of them went to Diggs, you don't consider that force feeding, over 50% of the attempts to one individual.  Only 3 to the supposed #2 WR.  No attempts to RB's.

Last night? Sure as a one off sample you could say that. But if you include last night's 16 attempts it would actually show that on the season over all 6 games, Diggs has actually been under targeted more times than not compared to last season.

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The issue really isnt in the QTY it is in the location.  I cannot wait to see the Allen Passing Chart from yesterday.  as expected. and in trend with this offense.  ALOT Of short and LOS throws

 

 

pass-chart_ALL529264_2023-REG-6_1697428506355.jpeg

Edited by MAJBobby
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29 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Came across the following tweet. Pulled the numbers out so they are front and center.  Credit to "Rico" for doing the leg work. But I have seen a LOT of common themes parroted today and the numbers show that for the most part the opinions of some (including some opinions I've had) may not be fully true.

 

 

First off...the new narrative that Josh is suddenly force feeding Diggs and only Diggs the ball to keep him happy. Through 6 games Diggs has only 1 more target than last year. My theory is that the perception that Allen is forcing Diggs the ball more has to do with the lack of targets for Stef at the end of the year.

 

After 6 weeks 
5-1 record.              4-2 Record 
#Diggs  22'             Diggs  23'
65 targets               66 targets 
49 recs                    49 Rec 
6tds                           5tds

 

Second...Gabe Davis hasn't improved. That's another false narrative IMO that the numbers seemingly back up. This time last year Dais had a 53% catch rate. Through the same amount of games his rate has jumped to 70%. Most of his catches have gone for 1st downs or TDs. He has been a HIGHLY efficient player so far this year. I have checked 3 sources this morning and have seen him "credited" with TWO official drops this year on one of them and ONE in the other two. If someone can provide another official source that is higher, please do. His fumble last night was just the third time in his career he's fumbled  and it was an excellent play by the defense. Gabe Davis is NOT the problem.

 

#Davis 22'.             Davis 23'
26 targets              30 Targets
14 Rec                      21 rec
4tds                          4tds

 

Third...Knox has to be a blocker all the time now. And while it's true he is asked to chip a fair amount...he still runs a pass pattern after most times. He's actually had 5 more targets this year. His problem has been he's not making the tough catches we are used to seeing him make. 

 

#Knox 22'               Knox 23'
20 Targets              25 Targets
15 rec                        14 Rec
1TD                             1TD

 

Fourth...slot receiver has been a bust. True, yet maybe a bit too early to lose hope. Notable with Kincaid missing last night he's only got 5 games in. I would have expected a few balls his way to raise these numbers, but the fact of the matter is while the TDa haven't been there (yet) and his opportunity hasn't been as high, he's actually been much more efficient than what we had in the slot last year. He's a rookie still figuring things out. I think the best is yet to come here.

 

#Mckenzie 22'       #Kincaid 23'
26 targets               19 Targets
17 Rec                       17 Rec
3tds                           0 TDs   

Thanks for posting this.  It shows me that my theories on what's going on with the offense are misplaced. What I saw last night is that Josh just targeted Diggs in the first half and the offense stalled, but when he started spreading the ball around in the second half things improved.  I still think that's what happened last night, but it's not happened all year.

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So let's get to the heart of the matter...

 

The stat that's missing is...Josh ground game. If you discard that from your playbook, the rest must come up and fill in the gaps. And everything is pretty much the same, nothing has truly picked up that lack of dynamism.

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18 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:


McKittrick was a first down machine.  I'd like to see the FD stats between McKittrick and the slot committee. That's what the Bills are really missing right now, the ability to move the chains. 

On the whole season last year McKenzie had 42 catches. 27 of those were for 1st downs. Not sure that qualifies as a first down machine.

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