TSNBDSC Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 Another excellent site: http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfl.html 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnNord Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 This means nothing after Week 5 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevestojan Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 2 hours ago, TSNBDSC said: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html This is REALLY cool. Turns out if we lose the next 5 and then run the table, we’re in! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearNorth Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 Ran the sim a couple of times. Obviously last game of the season at Fish is HUGE, as that would give us a season sweep. @Chiefs will probably decide the AFC #1 seed as long as we sweep Miami. JAX playing in such a lousy division and with a W over us could be a problem. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78thealltimegreat Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 17 minutes ago, stevestojan said: This is REALLY cool. Turns out if we lose the next 5 and then run the table, we’re in! If we lose the next 5 with the teams they have coming up. This will be the board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punching Bag Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 10 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said: If we lose the next 5 with the teams they have coming up. This will be the board. Well some say it is a good idea to tank. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strive_for_five_guy Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 After running multiple simulations, I’ve concluded that we still control our own destiny. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reks Ryan Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 5 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said: Another excellent site: http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfl.html Interesting that this one only gives the Bills a 54% chance to make the playoffs. And shows both the Colts & Steelers w higher probability to get in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coldfronts Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 (edited) Well we got what we wanted an underdog status not like last year Edited October 14, 2023 by Coldfronts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Darragh Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 8 hours ago, Limeaid said: Well some say it is a good idea to tank. Good year to tank, we could finally get ourselves a decent QB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearNorth Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 7 hours ago, Reks Ryan said: Interesting that this one only gives the Bills a 54% chance to make the playoffs. And shows both the Colts & Steelers w higher probability to get in. And ranks the fish ahead of us. A team we beat by 4 TD's and is also missing several key players due to injury/on injured reserve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franco_92 Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, BearNorth said: And ranks the fish ahead of us. A team we beat by 4 TD's and is also missing several key players due to injury/on injured reserve. The Fins thing is just a math thing, because they are a game ahead of us in the win column and likely have an easier schedule due to finishing lower than us last year That said I don't think it's a coin flip that the 2nd best qb in the NFL makes the playoffs sitting at 3-2 with 7 very winnable games in a row 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWei44 Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 8 hours ago, Reks Ryan said: Interesting that this one only gives the Bills a 54% chance to make the playoffs. And shows both the Colts & Steelers w higher probability to get in. I may be wrong about this but I think the 54% is the probability of winning the first round (every % in the table is the probability of winning in said round). So our chances of making the playoffs would be higher than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 13 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said: Another excellent site: http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfl.html These projections seem absurd. Chiefs at 85% is incredibly low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finn Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 The real question isn't whether the Bills make the playoffs--Allen would have to be out for the season for that to happen--but whether they win the division. If they win the division and get a bye, their SB chances rise by a lot. One near-certainty: They won't have top seed. Between the Chief's soft schedule, the extreme bias of the refs in their favor (it's no longer debatable), and eyebrow-raising "coincidences" (e.g., the Broncos DB declining to tackle Mahomes), the Chief WILL be awarded the top seed, barring a season-ending injury to Mahomes. Not fair, but at least they have a chance to beat the Chiefs at that point. https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/10/13/broncos-damarri-mathis-patrick-mahomes-missed-tackle-video Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 11 minutes ago, TheWei44 said: I may be wrong about this but I think the 54% is the probability of winning the first round (every % in the table is the probability of winning in said round). So our chances of making the playoffs would be higher than that. You are wrong. The last column that indicates the 54% is titled "No Playoffs". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWei44 Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 8 minutes ago, Chaos said: You are wrong. The last column that indicates the 54% is titled "No Playoffs". I stand corrected, thanks. I hadn't clicked on one of the key links. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 9 minutes ago, TheWei44 said: I stand corrected, thanks. I hadn't clicked on one of the key links. Its understandable. Because 54% is so stupid, it would seem there was something wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsatlastin2018 Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 (edited) FFS… The goal is NOT to “make the Playoffs”! We’re YEARS down that road! Edited October 14, 2023 by Billsatlastin2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Chaos said: These projections seem absurd. Chiefs at 85% is incredibly low. I believe their projections are based upon probabilities and W-L records of the season so far. As the season progresses, you'll see stronger teams' percentages increase as they garner wins. Edited October 14, 2023 by Ridgewaycynic2013 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearNorth Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 43 minutes ago, arcane said: The Fins thing is just a math thing, because they are a game ahead of us in the win column and likely have an easier schedule due to finishing lower than us last year That said I don't think it's a coin flip that the 2nd best qb in the NFL makes the playoffs sitting at 3-2 with 7 very winnable games in a row Interestingly the schedules are remarkably even the rest of the way. Miami's future opponents are w30-l31, Bills are w30-l30. [bye weeks cause the difference]. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drew21PA Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 12 hours ago, BearNorth said: Ran the sim a couple of times. Obviously last game of the season at Fish is HUGE, as that would give us a season sweep. @Chiefs will probably decide the AFC #1 seed as long as we sweep Miami. JAX playing in such a lousy division and with a W over us could be a problem. My opinion is anyone but the chiefs as number 1 seed in cool with Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 15 hours ago, BearNorth said: Ran the sim a couple of times. Obviously last game of the season at Fish is HUGE, as that would give us a season sweep. @Chiefs will probably decide the AFC #1 seed as long as we sweep Miami. JAX playing in such a lousy division and with a W over us could be a problem. I dunno… I can easily see us beating KC but then dropping a couple we “should” win, while KC continues their dominance over the dregs of the NFL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reks Ryan Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 3 hours ago, TheWei44 said: I may be wrong about this but I think the 54% is the probability of winning the first round (every % in the table is the probability of winning in said round). So our chances of making the playoffs would be higher than that. It's not showing any % about performance in the playoffs, only the seeding entering the playoffs. Each place is the probabiltiy for each seed. Ex. it shows the Bills with 6% chance to get the 1 seed, and 10% chance to get the 5 seed. It has the Dolphins 57% chance to wind the divison and the Bills only a 29% chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo03 Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 The Chiefs in the west right now is nearly identical to the Patriots in the East 15-20 Yeats ago. Every team in the division sucks, though the Chargers aren't horrible like us, the Jets and Dolphins were and they basically get 6 free wins every year. Literally like the exact same thing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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