Stats, PFF grades, Thoughts on Offense, and Miami coming up

[Einstein]

• Don’t let the incredible play of the defense distract you from the fact that this was not the best game for the offense. The starting offense scored 24 points, which feels low considering the defense forced 5 turnovers and continuously gave the offense the ball. The starting offense's last three series were Interception, Turnover on Downs, Touchdown. They ended the day with 322 yards and 5.9 yards per play. To put this into perspective, the Broncos put up 399 yards and 6.4 yards per play against Washington. The offense will have to be better against Miami. On first down, we ran 7 plays that resulted in 1 yard or less, 9 plays that resulted in 2 yards or less, and 2 plays that resulted in negative yards.

 

• I feel confident writing that Bernard is a good Middle Linebacker. No qualifiers needed. No comments such as "he is good enough" or "better than expected". He is a good player. Period. He is good defending the pass and he is good at defending the run. He FLIES through gaps on run downs and is very physical for a player of his size. And we have seen his athleticism on back-to-back game interceptions. He is just plain good.

 

• Torrence had the highest pass blocking grade against the Commanders. Brown had the worst. Dawkins had the highest run blocking grade. Torrence had the worst (PFF graded him abysmally in run blocking).

 

• The Bills have the lowest blitz % in the NFL. As I mentioned in the offseason, I do not think this defense will be called much different than Frazier did. I'm sure we have all seen some differences, but it is remarkably similar to Frazier's defense.

 

• People hate calling an early season game a “must win” and I understand why. But this Miami game is, without a doubt, a very important early season game. If Miami wins, they go to 4-0 and we fall to 2-2. Miami’s next two opponents are 1-5 combined: the Giants (1-2) and Panthers (0-3). Any given Sunday, but in all likelihood, they would be 6-0. We need to hand them a loss.

 

• Kaiir Elam has done well against the Dolphins. He had an 88 coverage grade against them in the playoffs, and a season average of 75 against the Dolphins. That is the highest grade of all our cornerbacks against the Dolphins last season. By a lot.

 

• It’s a long season, but as of now, Harty seems like a miss. Beane signed him to a 2 year, $9.5M contract, which I thought indicated that we planned to use him heavily. We did draft Kincaid too, but even when Kincaid is not on the field, Harty has no real role.

 

• NextGenStats records player speed in every game. The 5 fastest times this season are ALL Miami Dolphins. Every. Single. Spot is taken by a Dolphin. Hill, Mostert and Achane have all reached speeds of 21MPH with Hill reaching 22MPH. Miami trading for Hill was such a great move. You can’t teach speed. I was hoping the trade would blow up in their face but it was honestly worth every pick they gave up and every dollar spent. As Robert Griffin III said yesterday, Hill has something that no other player in the sport has - INSTANT SPEED. This is so incredibly dangerous because he can be open within 1 second, which completely negates the defenses pass rush. Then they team him up with Waddle and turns into “pick your poison”.

 

• Fans can denigrate Tua all they want, but he is an incredibly accurate and quick thrower of the football. He will always have limitations due to size, arm strength, and height, but his incredible accuracy and quick delivery makes him lethal. YardsPerPass noted on film that he will rarely (if ever) throw to the far side boundary - likely due to arm weakness - so smart teams (such as the Patriots) are playing a lot of Cover 3 while clogging the middle of the field and forcing short side throws. The Broncos didn’t get the memo.

 

• 70 points is impressive, but make no mistake, the Broncos gave up in that game. They were also incredibly inept. Look at the carnage in this photo.

 

 

 

Edited September 25, 2023 by Einstein

[Bangarang]

Tua is having a great year. He plays so well into McD’s offense and McD is on another level when it comes to his use of motion and getting guys open. I’m actually jealous of that. 
 

Our DL needs to have another great game if we’re going to have a good chance at winning.

[Einstein]

10 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Our DL needs to have another great game if we’re going to have a good chance at winning.

I believe the Dolphins game plan will be to negate our DL by throwing passes within a second or two of snapping the ball. 

We need to tackle well.

[Franco_92]

This is not a "refs suck and hate us" post. But we would also benefit from some element of the Dolphins beating themselves. When the starters were in yesterday, the Bills had apparently committed six times as many infractions as their opponent despite completely dominating them. It was a bit perplexing. I didn't see anything wrong with the calls on the bills I paid attention to, but it is rare for a team to be so thoroughly outclassed yet technically sound. Similarly, the Raiders apparently committed 2 infractions despite facing an offensive machine for 80 plays. I'm a bit skeptical. 

 

In fact, over the course of well over 300 plays combined, the Bills' opponents have been outrageously disciplined, only committing 6 infractions to Buffalo's 15 (though I might be forgetting some after the bills starters were pulled)

 

In an important game I project to be closely fought, I will just ask for consistency so the coaches and players can dictate the outcome themselves. The Bills ended a lot of their own drives prematurely, and extended one or two Washington drives. They need to clean that up themselves, one drive can make the difference next week

[Big Turk]

Bills have the lowest blitz percentage and the highest sack rate, by a wide margin.  That should be terrifying for opposing offenses.

37 minutes ago, arcane said:

This is not a "refs suck and hate us" post. But we would also benefit from some element of the Dolphins beating themselves. When the starters were in yesterday, the Bills had apparently committed six times as many infractions as their opponent despite completely dominating them. It was a bit perplexing. I didn't see anything wrong with the calls on the bills I paid attention to, but it is rare for a team to be so thoroughly outclassed yet technically sound. Similarly, the Raiders apparently committed 2 infractions despite facing an offensive machine for 80 plays. I'm a bit skeptical. 

 

In fact, over the course of well over 300 plays combined, the Bills' opponents have been outrageously disciplined, only committing 6 infractions to Buffalo's 15 (though I might be forgetting some after the bills starters were pulled)

 

In an important game I project to be closely fought, I will just ask for consistency so the coaches and players can dictate the outcome themselves. The Bills ended a lot of their own drives prematurely, and extended one or two Washington drives. They need to clean that up themselves, one drive can make the difference next week

 

I find it hard to believe that the Bills DLine isn't getting held at all with them being so dominant rushing the passer.

Edited September 25, 2023 by Big Turk

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

34 minutes ago, arcane said:

This is not a "refs suck and hate us" post. But we would also benefit from some element of the Dolphins beating themselves. When the starters were in yesterday, the Bills had apparently committed six times as many infractions as their opponent despite completely dominating them. It was a bit perplexing. I didn't see anything wrong with the calls on the bills I paid attention to, but it is rare for a team to be so thoroughly outclassed yet technically sound. Similarly, the Raiders apparently committed 2 infractions despite facing an offensive machine for 80 plays. I'm a bit skeptical. 

 

In fact, over the course of well over 300 plays combined, the Bills' opponents have been outrageously disciplined, only committing 6 infractions to Buffalo's 15 (though I might be forgetting some after the bills starters were pulled)

 

In an important game I project to be closely fought, I will just ask for consistency so the coaches and players can dictate the outcome themselves. The Bills ended a lot of their own drives prematurely, and extended one or two Washington drives. They need to clean that up themselves, one drive can make the difference next week

 

The refs we've had through 3 weeks have generally let the teams play. The Bills are averaging 5 penalties per game which is actually very solid, good for the 5th fewest penalties per game.

 

2 penalties per game by our opponents is ridiculously low. IIRC we declined 4 or even 5 penalties in the Jets game which impacts it a bit. 

 

Part of our opponents not being called for penalties is due to game situation. Who's going to call offensive holding on a team that's down by 30 and QB is getting sacked every play ?

[billsfan89]

"The starting offense only scored 24 points" 

 

The offense excluding the final TD drive with backups scored on all but 3 possessions with one of those three possessions starting at the one-yard line (and that drive resulted in a shift of field possession as the Josh INT on that drive occurred deep in Commander's territory). The only concerning moment from the offense was the inability to get 2 yards on a 3rd and 2. 

 

The offense in the red zone played conservatively because they were playing complementary to the defense and just taking points to try to build up a multi-score lead. Had the offense "needed" to score more I think they could have. The game got into garbage time with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter which means despite "only" scoring 24 points the offense likely could have score more had the game been closer.  

 

I think comparing the Bills offense in a blowout WIN over the Commanders to the Broncos offense in a blowout LOSS is extremely misleading. 

[Einstein]

7 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

I find it hard to believe that the Bills DLine isn't getting held at all with them being so dominant rushing the passer.

 

They are. Every d-line in the league is getting held but the league is choosing not to call it, unless it is a clear and obvious impact on the play. Too many good d-linemen as compared to o-linemen.

Just now, billsfan89 said:

 I think comparing the Bills offense in a blowout WIN over the Commanders to the Broncos offense in a blowout LOSS is extremely misleading. 

 

The Broncos were leading most of the game and only lost by 2 points. There was nothing blowout about it.

[BigAl2526]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

I believe the Dolphins game plan will be to negate our DL by throwing passes within a second or two of snapping the ball. 

We need to tackle well.

That is Tua's MO anyway.  Buffalo will need to be able to disrupt receivers' route running early and maintain fairly tight coverage if they can.  

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

 

The Broncos were leading most of the game and only lost by 2 points. There was nothing blowout about it.

 

I stand corrected as I misread what you stated. I still don't think that the Bronco's offense vs. Commanders' defense is an apt comparison to the Bills offense vs. Commanders' defense. The Broncos were not winning most of that game and sitting on a lead with a defense dominating. 

 

The Commanders/Broncos game was a one-score game at the half. The Broncos jumped out to a 3-possession lead early in the 2nd quarter but that lead was cut down to just 7 points by halftime. The Broncos were for most of the game playing to add to a tenuous lead or to come back from a small deficit. 

 

The Bills had taken a two-possession lead by the end of the first quarter and were shutting out the Commanders the Bills knew that they could just win by kicking field goals and not turning the ball over. The game flows were completely different. 

 

The Bills scored points on all but 3 drives and one of those drives they didn't score started on their one yard line (and even on that drive the Bills still managed to completely alter field position and eat clock). The Broncos did not convert points on 5 drives despite having the need to score on every possession. 

 

It's just not comparable the games in my opinion.

[Einstein]

47 minutes ago, BigAl2526 said:

That is Tua's MO anyway.  Buffalo will need to be able to disrupt receivers' route running early and maintain fairly tight coverage if they can.  

 

Many defenders in the middle of the field.

[RyanC883]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

They are. Every d-line in the league is getting held but the league is choosing not to call it, unless it is a clear and obvious impact on the play. Too many good d-linemen as compared to o-linemen.

 

The Broncos were leading most of the game and only lost by 2 points. There was nothing blowout about it.

 

Although, the refs called that nonsensical trip on Kincaid.  He barley touched the guy, who went into full-blown acting mode.  

[Dillenger4]

Take out Tua's first quick read and it's over. we will do that. We did it last year with a bunch of injuries down in Miami. This year is different. This Bills team is dominant in all 3 phases. Tua and his peewee buddies will be easy to shut down. They haven't faced a really good D like ours yet. Bank it! Their D is not very good. Bills win convincingly.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Fun fact Cook is second in the league in rush yards. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Harty needs to be used as field stretcher. Vertical threat. Right now they’re getting him horizontal on short passes for run after catch. Need to switch it up.

[ndirish1978]

I have a hard time thinking we're going to win this week. Our D has been good to great this year but I still see our CBs as the weakest link on our team. I've lost confidence in Josh when he's not playing with a lead. 

[Billznut]

I think everyone agrees this is a huge early game. But it is also just that, early. Dolphins will have a big two game lead plus tiebreaker with the win, but there will be 13 games left to play. Miami did this exact thing last year. Hot start, Tua’s stats through 3 games are identical to last years first 3 games. Then Tua missed time. Everyone has to keep that in mind. Yes we will be in a decent hole if we lose Sunday, but unless you’re telling me now that Tua will start and play in ALL 17 games this year for Miami, I won’t concede the division theirs after Sunday’s game. 

Edited September 25, 2023 by Billznut

[BRH]

I'm no DC, but I see us flooding the middle of the field and even dropping longer guys like Rousseau and Epenesa into that mix to block vision and disrupt routes while we bring other guys off the edges.  Tua isn't even a one-read QB.  He's simply throwing to spots and expecting guys to be there, and they have been.... so far.

 

It would be a mistake to think Mike McDaniel has somehow solved football.  We will have a plan for them.  And they will have to adjust.  But what will they do?  Have Tua throw outside the numbers?  Child please.

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Billznut said:

 unless you’re telling me now that Tua will start and play in ALL 17 games

 

He is getting rid off the ball so fast that it is certainly possible. Tua is, on average, releasing the ball only 2.3 seconds after the snap. That is #1 in the NFL

[27yanks]

Bills  Rushing defense:  56/Carries  332/Yards  5.9APC

Better shore it up or we're going to get gashed Sunday!!