Super Excited For This Draft Class

[GreggTX]

This may go down as Beane's best draft to date -- A pretty tall order since he nabbed Josh and Edmunds together. But Edmunds is gone. Meanwhile the UDFA's look like 2 or 3 of them are sure to make the PS or better. Certainly, Shavers will stick somewhere. While the day 3 guys haven't shown much, it's still early -- At least for our 5th rounder. Meanwhile, the top 3 picks look like solid gold. To say that Kincaid and Torrence have shined is an understatement. They are everything we hoped for and then some. I know it's too early, but everything they have done to this point has been outstanding. Don't let me stop there either. I was disappointed when they drafted Dorian Williams. Not any more! He looks great too and was possibly the best defensive player on the field last Saturday. I wonder how long it will be before he forces the coaches to find a way to keep him on the field. Maybe add a little bulk and let him play besides Milano.

 

I'd love to hear your thoughts on our rookie class.

Edited August 15, 2023 by GreggTX

[Dr.Sack]

Subpar drafts are the main reasons why we haven’t won it all yet. Drafting and retaining on the roster is a huge factor in continued success.

 

2019 Oliver & Knox (2/8). 

2020 Epenesa, Davis, Bass, Jackson (4/7). 

2021 Rousseau, Basham, Brown, Doyle, Hamlin (5/8).

2022 Elam, Cook, Bernard, Shakir, Benford, Spector (6/8). 
17/31 draft picks remain on the team.

 

2019 KC (1/6)

2020 KC (5/6)

2021 KC (6/6)

2022 KC (10/10)

Total 22/28

 

KC has been more efficient at drafting especially considering their disastrous 2019 draft class. It’s no wonder why they have stayed at the top of the AFC and have hosted the AFC Championship 5 consecutive seasons.

 

In order for the Bills to catch-up they must hit on a higher % of their draft class.

[NewEra]

I don’t think any class can be better than 2018.  Kincaid is my favorite draft pick maybe ever.  Josh Allen not eligible 

 

I think Torrance will eventually be at least equal to Dion Dawkins in terms of ability.  
 

I don’t know if Dorian and Milano can play side by side….. but if they can it’ll be delightful. 

I don’t think Shorter is an NFL WR.  I expect Austin and Broeker will be PS guys that might be able to get coached up.  
 

I don’t think it can be Beanes best draft ever.  
 

 

[BullBuchanan]

55 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

This may go down as Beane's best draft to date -- A pretty tall order since he nabbed Josh and Edmunds together. But Edmunds is gone. Meanwhile the UDFA's look like 2 or 3 of them are sure to make the PS or better. Certainly, Shavers will stick somewhere. While the day 3 guys haven't shown much, it's still early -- At least for our 5th rounder. Meanwhile, the top 3 picks look like solid gold. To say that Kincaid and Torrence have shined is an understatement. They are everything we hoped for and then some. I know it's too early, but everything they have done to this point has been outstanding. Don't let me stop there either. I was disappointed when they drafted Dorian Williams. Not any more! He looks great too and was possibly the best defensive player on the field last Saturday. I wonder how long it will be before he forces the coaches to find a way to keep him on the field. Maybe add a little bulk and let him play besides Milano.

 

I'd love to hear your thoughts on our rookie class.

I'm not anywhere near this optimistic. The hype train on Kincaid is unreal, and it's going to be nearly impossible for him to live up to it. There are rarely more than 3-4 difference making tight ends in the league at any given time. Maybe we'll get lucky with this kid and he'll be one, or maybe he'll be one of the 7-10 nice players behind that group (which is what knox is) That's capable of having a great game or even a great season. Unless your name is Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzales, I really don't think it matters that much.

If the guard turns out to be good, that's cool. That doesn't put games in the win column from my seat.

Williams is going to have a very uphill battle to even get on the field over the next 2 years, and frankly I don't like the idea of him replacing Milano even at that point. If you want to celebrate this draft as the best ever, I need our 3rd round pick to have a way to get on the field besides special teams. The pick is Bernard take 2 except maybe worse because he doesn't even play a position that will be open any time soon.

Not sure the rest of the class makes the team. So, best case scenario what did we get here? A #2 TE/part time slot receiver, a potential starting guard, and a special teams LB. If that's Beane's best draft ever, I think that's a pretty strong indictment of how poor his drafts have been.

Edited August 15, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[GunnerBill]

26 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'm not anywhere near this optimistic. The hype train on Kincaid is unreal, and it's going to be nearly impossible for him to live up to it. There are rarely more than 3-4 difference making tight ends in the league at any given time. Maybe we'll get lucky with this kid and he'll be one, or maybe he'll be one of the 7-10 nice players behind that group (which is what knox is) That's capable of having a great game or even a great season. Unless your name is Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzales, I really don't think it matters that much.

If the guard turns out to be good, that's cool. That doesn't put games in the win column from my seat.

Williams is going to have a very uphill battle to even get on the field over the next 2 years, and frankly I don't like the idea of him replacing Milano even at that point. If you want to celebrate this draft as the best ever, I need our 3rd round pick to have a way to get on the field besides special teams. The pick is Bernard take 2 except maybe worse because he doesn't even play a position that will be open any time soon.

Not sure the rest of the class makes the team. So, best case scenario what did we get here? A #2 TE/part time slot receiver, a potential starting guard, and a special teams LB. If that's Beane's best draft ever, I think that's a pretty strong indictment of how poor his drafts have been.

 

I think Kincaid will be a starter. It might be in a jobshare with a more traditional slot receiver as a rookie but by year 2 he is going to start. 

 

I take the point on Williams and I am not sold that he will ever be a true option at MLB and so you have drafted a guy who plays the same position as one of your best starters in Milano. I do wonder if the answer is eventually that Milano plays the MIKE but that is a projection and remains to be seen. I don't think it worse than Bernard though. Williams can play. He can be a good NFL player. Bernard was a reach and he isn't up to it IMO.

[BullBuchanan]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Kincaid will be a starter. It might be in a jobshare with a more traditional slot receiver as a rookie but by year 2 he is going to start.

He'd have to absolutely blow up his rookie year for this to happen IMO. With him playing TE2/Slot WR I don't see how he'll be able to eclipse Knox to be on the field for all the offensive snaps next season. Even if he's really really good, we know he isn't a very good blocker right now and there will be times that schematically you need a WR sized player on the field instead of a second TE sized player.

With Knox having a $20M cap hit next year, he's unmovable and as a good bloacker and capable receiver, I see him getting the vast majority of reps in 1 TE sets until 2025 at least.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

He'd have to absolutely blow up his rookie year for this to happen IMO. With him playing TE2/Slot WR I don't see how he'll be able to eclipse Knox to be on the field for all the offensive snaps next season. Even if he's really really good, we know he isn't a very good blocker right now and there will be times that schematically you need a WR sized player on the field instead of a second TE sized player.

With Knox having a $20M cap hit next year, he's unmovable and as a good bloacker and capable receiver, I see him getting the vast majority of reps in 1 TE sets until 2025 at least.

 

He won't be on the fiels instead of Knox. He will be on the field instead of a slot receiver. 

 

Hell they ran mainly 12 personnel with the first two units on Saturday. I think by the middle of next season the Bills will be a fully fledged base 12 personnel team rather than the base 11 team they have been the past 3 seasons.

Edited August 15, 2023 by GunnerBill

[BullBuchanan]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He won't be on the fiels instead of Knox. He will be on the field instead of a slot receiver. 

 

Hell they ran mainly 12 personnel with the first two units on Saturday. I think by the middle of next season the Bills will be a fully fledged base 12 personnel team rather than the base 11 team they have been the past 3 seasons.

As far as i know, that's not really a thing that any team does long term. Most years, the top 12 personnel team runs it around 30% of their plays, in 2021 Miami was an outlier at 61% and in 2019 the eagles ran it 52%. Neither one of those teams were very good either. That aside, it still means that a big weapon for your team is off the field on 40-50% of offensive snaps.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

As far as i know, that's not really a thing that any team does long term. Most years, the top 12 personnel team runs it around 30% of their plays, in 2021 Miami was an outlier at 61% and in 2019 the eagles ran it 52%. Neither one of those teams were very good either. That aside, it still means that a big weapon for your team is off the field on 40-50% of offensive snaps.

 

I think this team IS going to do that long term. The reason the Dolphins did it so much in 2021 was the exact reason the Bills will end up there by, at latest, the middle of next year. And the Eagles the same in 2019. They had Mike Gesicki and Zach Ertz respectively who were among their top 3 pass catchers but who are tight ends in name only. The Bills are going to in that bracket with Kincaid and he has the talent to be way better than Gesicki and I personally believe a little better than Ertz too. The Ravens in 2019 used either 12 or 21 (and in Roman's system there is a considerable cross over between the two) 60%+ as well. 

 

It happens rarely because situations where a team has a Dawson Knox and a Dalton Kincaid are rare. There are not many teams in football that could honestly say "two of our top four receivers are tight ends." I would be shocked if, health permitting, the Bills are not at 60%+ 12 personnel by the middle of 2024 at the latest. They could even get there this year if Saturday was an indicator of anything (that remains to be seen).

 

EDIT: I tried to find the Pats personnel groupings in 2011 when they had Gronk and Hernandez but it appears to be before the majority of the analytics sites were tracking it. However, just looking at usage and targets and some of the media coverage that talks about the Pats being "predominantly" a 2TE offense I suspect it was way up there. Again to me the reality is it is just rare that a team genuinely has two tight ends who are better receivers than their third wide receiver. But if Kincaid is anything like what we think he can be the Bills will definitely be one of those teams.

Edited August 15, 2023 by GunnerBill

[billsfan89]

The Bills nabbed the best guard and TE in the draft if Kincaid and Torrence are very good to Elite players around Josh that’s a good draft. If they can get one more starter from the rest of the picks that’s a home run draft in my opinion especially considering that the Bills didn’t have too many picks and traded down for some additional late round picks in 2024

[LEBills]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

As far as i know, that's not really a thing that any team does long term. Most years, the top 12 personnel team runs it around 30% of their plays, in 2021 Miami was an outlier at 61% and in 2019 the eagles ran it 52%. Neither one of those teams were very good either. That aside, it still means that a big weapon for your team is off the field on 40-50% of offensive snaps.

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think this team IS going to do that long term. The reason the Dolphins did it so much in 2021 was the exact reason the Bills will end up there by, at latest, the middle of next year. And the Eagles the same in 2019. They had Mike Gesicki and Zach Ertz respectively who were among their top 3 pass catchers but who are tight ends in name only. The Bills are going to in that bracket with Kincaid and he has the talent to be way better than Gesicki and I personally believe a little better than Ertz too. The Ravens in 2019 used either 12 or 21 (and in Roman's system there is a considerable cross over between the two) 60%+ as well. 

 

It happens rarely because situations where a team has a Dawson Knox and a Dalton Kincaid are rare. There are not many teams in football that could honestly say "two of our top four receivers are tight ends." I would be shocked if, health permitting, the Bills are not at 60%+ 12 personnel by the middle of 2024 at the latest. They could even get there this year if Saturday was an indicator of anything (that remains to be seen).

 

EDIT: I tried to find the Pats personnel groupings in 2011 when they had Gronk and Hernandez but it appears to be before the majority of the analytics sites were tracking it. However, just looking at usage and targets and some of the media coverage that talks about the Pats being "predominantly" a 2TE offense I suspect it was way up there. Again to me the reality is it is just rare that a team genuinely has two tight ends who are better receivers than their third wide receiver. But if Kincaid is anything like what we think he can be the Bills will definitely be one of those teams.

In 2011, Gronk and Hernandez were on the field for 94% and 77% of the snaps respectively

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4717950/final-offensive-snap-counts

 

The 2015 Panthers with both McDermott and Dorsey may be the best example of what this season could look like as Olson and the inferior Ed Dixon were on the field for 95% and 54% of snaps. Knox is and I expect Kincaid will be better than Dixon ever was. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/car/2015-snap-counts.htm

It is a relatively small sample because it is pretty rare a team has enough tight ends good enough to be worthwhile to have them on the field. It is cool to think about the possibilities.
 

I don’t think Kincaid has to be amazing this year either to be nearly as successful as the two teams that made the Super Bowl of this list. The Bills also have Josh Allen, Stefan Diggs, Gabe Davis (who would be the best WR2 by a mile on any of the Pats or Panthers team) and James Cook who I think his home run ability on the ground will be a crucial aspect of keeping teams honest this year. At full health this team is stacked.

 

Giving us heavier formation looks to improve the running game, getting 500-700 yards from Kincaid and having some timely catches in the playoffs may be all that is needed from him to make a big difference this year.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, LEBills said:

 

In 2011, Gronk and Hernandez were on the field for 94% and 77% of the snaps respectively

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4717950/final-offensive-snap-counts

 

The 2015 Panthers with both McDermott and Dorsey may be the best example of what this season could look like as Olson and the inferior Ed Dixon were on the field for 95% and 54% of snaps. Knox is and I expect Kincaid will be better than Dixon ever was. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/car/2015-snap-counts.htm

It is a relatively small sample because it is pretty rare a team has enough tight ends good enough to be worthwhile to have them on the field. It is cool to think about the possibilities.

 

Thanks, well done digging up the Pats numbers I couldn't find! Really helpful. Agree on the Panthers comparison too. And on the bolded that is exactly the point. Rare that a team has two tight ends who are better receiving options than their 3rd best WR. 

[BillsFanForever19]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

I don’t think any class can be better than 2018.  Kincaid is my favorite draft pick maybe ever.  Josh Allen not eligible 

 

I think Torrance will eventually be at least equal to Dion Dawkins in terms of ability.  
 

I don’t know if Dorian and Milano can play side by side….. but if they can it’ll be delightful. 

I don’t think Shorter is an NFL WR.  I expect Austin and Broeker will be PS guys that might be able to get coached up.  
 

I don’t think it can be Beanes best draft ever.  
 

 

 

What makes you say Shorter isn't an NFL WR? Seems a little harsh after 1 Pre-Season game. He definitely has the size, speed for that size, and the build. He was also a #1 College recruit. He's a developmental project, for sure. As such, I think it's a little early to make such a proclamation.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

2 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

He'd have to absolutely blow up his rookie year for this to happen IMO. With him playing TE2/Slot WR I don't see how he'll be able to eclipse Knox to be on the field for all the offensive snaps next season. Even if he's really really good, we know he isn't a very good blocker right now and there will be times that schematically you need a WR sized player on the field instead of a second TE sized player.

With Knox having a $20M cap hit next year, he's unmovable and as a good bloacker and capable receiver, I see him getting the vast majority of reps in 1 TE sets until 2025 at least.

I don’t think this at all. I think Kincaid is very much in the plans here and will see a lot of work in this offense. I almost expect him to be the second most targeted WR on this team tbh. I don’t see anyway you took this guy in round 1, with the roster makeup we had…and not use him. I’d be very surprised if he’s not targeted a ton.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

What makes you say Shorter isn't an NFL WR? Seems a little harsh after 1 Pre-Season game. He definitely has the size, speed for that size, and the build. He was also a #1 College recruit. He's a developmental project, for sure. As such, I think it's a little early to make such a proclamation.

 

I have tried to find an example of a size and speed receiver who was highly recruited out of HS, didn't produce in college and then went on to out produce that in the pros. It's like a needle in a haystack. I am not writing him off but that makes me sceptical he is going to make a significant contribution. 

[eball]

I think we are very quickly going to see that Diggs/Davis/Knox/Kincaid/Cook is the best offense we can put out on the field, and a pretty effing fantastic one.

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Kincaid will be a starter. It might be in a jobshare with a more traditional slot receiver as a rookie but by year 2 he is going to start. 

 

I take the point on Williams and I am not sold that he will ever be a true option at MLB and so you have drafted a guy who plays the same position as one of your best starters in Milano. I do wonder if the answer is eventually that Milano plays the MIKE but that is a projection and remains to be seen. I don't think it worse than Bernard though. Williams can play. He can be a good NFL player. Bernard was a reach and he isn't up to it IMO.

The thing I do like about the Williams pick and the way he looks is this. Having him offers the opportunity for the Bills to present different defensive looks in certain game situations and weather conditions.

 

I am a fan of Taron Johnson, and yes he does show well against the run as much as the pass. However, we do play in Western NY and weather can be a factor especially late in the season. Having the horses to have a true 4-3 look in those circumstances and go a bit heavier can only help. 

 

Also as we saw last year for sure, injuries will factor in. Williams (along with Rapp) give us coverage to still run many looks if we lose guys. The ability for variety is a huge plus. 

[Chaos]

5 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

A #2 TE/part time slot receiver

Knox isn't forever. No evidence suggests Kincaid will not be a TE 1 in the NFL.

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

What makes you say Shorter isn't an NFL WR? Seems a little harsh after 1 Pre-Season game. He definitely has the size, speed for that size, and the build. He was also a #1 College recruit. He's a developmental project, for sure. As such, I think it's a little early to make such a proclamation.

It’s my opinion after watching him in college that he doesn’t have the juice to get open and gain separation in the nfl.  He’s not explosive.  He’s just big.  I think that corners will stay will him and he’ll be a one trick pony, jump ball guy, at best.  
 

it’s not too early to make a prediction….. that’s why it’s called a prediction….because it’s early.  
 

We’ll see

 

 

[Freddie's Dead]

6 hours ago, NewEra said:

I don’t think any class can be better than 2018.  Kincaid is my favorite draft pick maybe ever.

 

Bruce Smith says hi.