Is Gabe Davis a trade candidate?

[transplantbillsfan]

14 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I never cease to be amazed by the undue appreciation that some fans just bestow upon the new crop of JAG's and camp fodder.

 

Gabe isn't an ideal WR2 for a contender but he's a starter in the NFL.........those guys range from WR4(Sharty in the rare event when healthy) all the way to unplayable.

 

 

If Gabe isn't an ideal #2 I would assume you would be against resigning him, right? His new contract is likely going to pay him at least like a high-tier #2 WR in the NFL, if not a low-tier #1.

 

Is the rest of our WR corps really a bunch of JAGs? Is Gabe really that much better an option as WR than Sherfield/Harty/Shakir? And if he is, is one year of Gabe (since I assume you're against the lucrative extension) better than potentially getting more draft capital for next year's draft to trade up and get what (one would hope & assume) would be an upgrade on Gabe at #2 WR in the 1st round at a cost-controlled price from 2024-2028?

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

I have been saying for a while now that it will be idiomatic not to sign Davis long term. He is going to have a great year and I think they already missed the boat on the extension plan.

We have no clue what kind of year he's going to have and Beane didn't miss the boat on an extension.  They extended Knox, Dawkins, T. White, and Allen between the start of August and the regular season.

 

I'd be more comfortable with a two or three year extension at about 10 to 12 million per year.  That's where I see his value and it does nothing to prevent us from drafting a potential elite WR in the first round within the next year or two to eventually replace Diggs.  If he wants more than that or wants to bet on himself so be it.  

[wppete]

No

[Doc Brown]

10 hours ago, Dopey said:

You’ve LITERALLY NEVER seen him block or catch a 50-50 pass?!?!

Come on now. I call BS on the “literally never “ comment. 

 

You said he's put up 50 catches, 900 yards, and 8 touchdowns.  He's never done that in his career.

[transplantbillsfan]

14 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

The drops are an issue but keep in mind his average depth of target has always been near the top of the league.  I'd be interested to see for the advanced analytic nerds if there's some adjusted formula that correlates drop rate to average depth of target.

 

Joe Marino covered this in one of his Locked On Bills podcasts this week and went all the way back to Gabe's college days.

 

That issue of relatively low catch rate is still prevalent in the short to intermediate range as well. 

[transplantbillsfan]

 

To those wondering if it's all ADOT to blame for Gabe's low catch %, watch this beginning at about 7:20.

 

Going all the way back to UCF Gabe was 50%-60% in terms of catch % on passes below 10 yards.

[Ya Digg?]

45 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

If Gabe isn't an ideal #2 I would assume you would be against resigning him, right? His new contract is likely going to pay him at least like a high-tier #2 WR in the NFL, if not a low-tier #1.

 

Is the rest of our WR corps really a bunch of JAGs? Is Gabe really that much better an option as WR than Sherfield/Harty/Shakir? And if he is, is one year of Gabe (since I assume you're against the lucrative extension) better than potentially getting more draft capital for next year's draft to trade up and get what (one would hope & assume) would be an upgrade on Gabe at #2 WR in the 1st round at a cost-controlled price from 2024-2028?

So the obvious problem here though is you are giving up a weapon this year to hopefully have a shot at getting someone next year. Giving up a weapon from Josh’s prime years 

[transplantbillsfan]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have been trying to make this point since last seasons started. A year ago people were saying:

 

"Gabe Davis is our #1B we basically have two wide receiver 1s"

 

I said - no he's not - he's a #2.

 

This year people are saying:

 

"Gabe Davis isn't good enough to be a WR2 he should be WR3 or WR4." 

 

And again I say - not true, he is a WR2. 

 

People take these wild and slightly mad positions rather than looking at the evidence and taking a sound position. 

 

As for the idea of trading him, which has now come up twice in a week. He is going tl get paid. Possibly by the Bills or most likely by someone else in FA next spring. Which would net the Bills possibly a 3rd but certainly a 4th round comp pick. So sure you could trade him for that now and bring that pick forward from the 2025 Draft to the 2024 Draft but you have willingly made a team in a Superbowl window weaker to do that. It makes no sense.

 

The comp pick thing is a valid point, but a lot of other factors would come into play with that, including how many FAs we sign/lose. You're presenting this as though if we let him sign with another team we'll automatically be given a 3rd or 4th round comp pick.

 

We're still in wait and see mode regarding the 3rd round comp pick we'll supposedly get for Edmunds.

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, FireChans said:

This one may be @transplantbillsfan’s worst take yet, which is saying something.

 

C'mon now... this is such a troll post... even for you, which is saying something.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I've had waaaaaaaaayyyyyy worse takes than this

[Bangarang]

Trading Gabe makes this offense objectively worse. I don’t see the point. 
 

Hope he plays well and we’ll see what happens as far as a new contract goes.

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The comp pick thing is a valid point, but a lot of other factors would come into play with that, including how many FAs we sign/lose. You're presenting this as though if we let him sign with another team we'll automatically be given a 3rd or 4th round comp pick.

 

We're still in wait and see mode regarding the 3rd round comp pick we'll supposedly get for Edmunds.

 

We are not in wait and see on Edmunds. We will get a 3rd. The formula ain't that complicated. 

 

Of course the Bills could sige free agents to cancel the pick for Davis out. But if they do that is their own stupidity.

[Kirby Jackson]

Why are we doing this? The Bills have the 2nd best odds to win the Super Bowl. They’re not trading their number 2 WR in training camp 😂😂. This is the dumb 💩that had me taking a long break from this place. It went from a brilliant community talking Bills football to threads like this 😂😂. Let’s just be better; it isn’t a high bar.

Edited July 29, 2023 by Kirby Jackson

[TBBills Fan]

We aren't trading any key players right now.  They will add one if possible but not subtract. They are going for the Lombardi 

[Aussie Joe]

55 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The comp pick thing is a valid point, but a lot of other factors would come into play with that, including how many FAs we sign/lose. You're presenting this as though if we let him sign with another team we'll automatically be given a 3rd or 4th round comp pick.

 

We're still in wait and see mode regarding the 3rd round comp pick we'll supposedly get for Edmunds.

Comp pick and also he is cheap …on $2m or so … 

 

Very little chance they trade him for a pick next year when they are trying to win a SB this year 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Junction said:

It’s not unreasonable to have a 1A and 1B with all the WR talent in the league, but it’s not needed. However, if you don’t have a 1A and 1B you absolutely need three viable targets that can make game changing or drive changing plays in the passing game. Whether that’s 1A paired with two solid 2 WRs or a more “traditional” 1A, 2A, and a top 10 TE. With all the new talent at the WR position procuring two guys who are solid WR2 talents at differing stages of their careers should be attainable if it’s prioritized. 

 

 

You might think that.    But your opinion is not supported in recent history.   

 

Chiefs (Juju...25th in NFL in receiving yards and very high catch rate....and Kelce)  vs Eagles (AJ Brown and Devonta Smith)

Rams (Kupp and Beckham) vs Bengals (Chase and Higgins)

Bucs (Evans and Godwin)  vs Chiefs (Hill and Kelce)

Chiefs(Hill and Kelce)  vs Niners (Kittle and Samuel)

Patriots (Edelman and Gronk) vs (Woods and Cooks)

Eagles (exception) vs Patriots (Gronk and Cooks)

 

Basically you gotta' go back 6 seasons to find one team that was the exception to having two WR1 talents and still reaching the Super Bowl.   It's become a necessity.   So the plan for the Bills has to be to develop that other guy(Kincaid hopefully) or be that increasingly rare exception.

 

Because there isn't a world where Gabe Davis is a comp to any of those players listed.    Only an illogical homer would imply that he is.   And to your alternative scenario.......some of those teams ALSO had an abundance of other good receivers as well......like the 2018 Patriots who first option kinda' studs but had 5 players over 700 yards receiving.

 

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, Ya Digg? said:

So the obvious problem here though is you are giving up a weapon this year to hopefully have a shot at getting someone next year. Giving up a weapon from Josh’s prime years 

Agreed.  
 

I have mixed feelings on Gabe, and this year is certainly a “show me” year for him… but, trading him away, unless someone is offering a 1st makes no sense. 
 

Even then.. who’s playing opposite Diggs?… Just a constant rotation of slot guys with outside ability?  
 

Going to need to see a big camp from Kincaid and someone like Shorter to make trading Davis be anything but nonsensical. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

If Gabe isn't an ideal #2 I would assume you would be against resigning him, right? His new contract is likely going to pay him at least like a high-tier #2 WR in the NFL, if not a low-tier #1.

 

Is the rest of our WR corps really a bunch of JAGs? Is Gabe really that much better an option as WR than Sherfield/Harty/Shakir? And if he is, is one year of Gabe (since I assume you're against the lucrative extension) better than potentially getting more draft capital for next year's draft to trade up and get what (one would hope & assume) would be an upgrade on Gabe at #2 WR in the 1st round at a cost-controlled price from 2024-2028?

 

 

So if Gabe isn't an ideal #2 you'd be willing to field a considerably worse receiving corps this season?   When you are a SB contender you don't trade a season for a second round picks.    

 

And yes..........the rest of our WR corps are really a bunch of JAGs.   Shakir, Sharty and Sherfield have combined for 1798 career receiving yards in a combined 10 NFL seasons.  180 yards per season is a JAG number.   Shorter wasn't even exceptional in college.  In 5 years he averaged 310 yards per season and never topped 600. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

26 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You might think that.    But your opinion is not supported in recent history.   

 

Chiefs (Juju...25th in NFL in receiving yards and very high catch rate....and Kelce)  vs Eagles (AJ Brown and Devonta Smith)

Rams (Kupp and Beckham) vs Bengals (Chase and Higgins)

Bucs (Evans and Godwin)  vs Chiefs (Hill and Kelce)

Chiefs(Hill and Kelce)  vs Niners (Kittle and Samuel)

Patriots (Edelman and Gronk) vs (Woods and Cooks)

Eagles (exception) vs Patriots (Gronk and Cooks)

 

Basically you gotta' go back 6 seasons to find one team that was the exception to having two WR1 talents and still reaching the Super Bowl.   It's become a necessity.   So the plan for the Bills has to be to develop that other guy(Kincaid hopefully) or be that increasingly rare exception.

 

Because there isn't a world where Gabe Davis is a comp to any of those players listed.    Only an illogical homer would imply that he is.   And to your alternative scenario.......some of those teams ALSO had an abundance of other good receivers as well......like the 2018 Patriots who first option kinda' studs but had 5 players over 700 yards receiving.

 

Half of the players you listed are not outside WRs or even WRs at all. You don't even understand what Davis' role on the team is. Correct he is not Hill or Gronk or Kelce or Kittle. He is an outside WR. He is not the second option and he never will be. This offense you want him to be your 4th option after Diggs, slot, and Knox.  Davis is your chunk yardage guy not your high volume reception guy.  

[Aussie Joe]

28 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Half of the players you listed are not outside WRs or even WRs at all. You don't even understand what Davis' role on the team is. Correct he is not Hill or Gronk or Kelce or Kittle. He is an outside WR. He is not the second option and he never will be. This offense you want him to be your 4th option after Diggs, slot, and Knox.  Davis is your chunk yardage guy not your high volume reception guy.  

I just want him to catch the freaking ball when it comes his way…

Could have put my foot through the TV last seconds of that Jets loss

 

[Motorin']

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

10 more catches on 98 targets is a lot bigger ask for him than you think.   He was credited with 9 drops........a massive number.......which should put that in perspective.  He's not going to become DeAndre Hopkins dropping 1% of his passes over night.   And as @GunnerBill said,  he's not same kind of the player those guys you mentioned are.   Much more diverse talents.

 

The more realistic option to get more efficiency from Gabe was/is to get those targets down by 50% to around 65 and just accept him for what he is.........a HR threat and guy who can over-match nickel and dime CB's down the field........and then maybe get him extended at a number that reflects that like the Chiefs did with MVS.

 

If you continue giving him 6-7 of your targets a game then it makes sense for teams to keep putting a CB1 on him and doubling Diggs.    That's no bueno.    It could also double-backfire on you by giving him bigger bulk stats than he should have.......which can be used against you in extension negotiations.

 

Give those extra targets to Kincaid(hopefully) and get Knox more involved.   That would help get Gabe more favorable matches and get him open more often.    

 

 

Sure, except we don't have the guy to take on his workload this season. 

 

I was hoping Beane would take a wr early over the few years to have a potential #1 in the making.  

 

Maybe long term that can be Kincaid, but we will all be amazed if that happens his rookie year. 

 

This season Gabe is going to be #2 in targets most likely. And I'd like to see him make a jump in his catch %.

 

Maybe Knox sees 90+ targets and Gabe drops down to the 65 range? Knox's catch % jumped big time in year 3 from the low 50's his first 2 years. Maybe he's owned more targets? 

 

I also think using the TE more in the passing game could unlock Davis a bit as well. Since they kept Knox in to block a bunch. If Knox and Kincaid combine to wreak some havoc, team's may not be able to employ the stradegy as much of putting the #1 cb on Davis and doubling Diggs with a S and the #2 cb.

 

If this offense can make the safeties respect he TE more, they may have to revert to putting their #1 on Diggs more often which might let Davis work against less talented coverage.

 

All that he he still may be 50% catch rate next year. But I don't see a clear way to reduce his role to #3 yet.  

Edited July 29, 2023 by Motorin'