How long does it take an NFL head coach to reach his 1st Super Bowl?

[Einstein]

The tenure of Sean McDermott as head coach and the appropriate "leash" to allow him to lead this team to the Super Bowl has been a topic of considerable debate on this forum. While there's a consensus that he deserves additional time, the crux of the argument lies in determining the precise length of this leash.

 

To shed light on this, I conducted a simple data study, examining the trajectory of every NFL head coach who has led their team to the Super Bowl (not necessarily winning, just reaching the final game) over the past 40 NFL seasons.

 

Here is what the data revealed:

 

• On average, it takes a head coach 4.2 seasons to reach his first Super Bowl.

 

• Only 5 coaches in the past 40 years have made their inaugural Super Bowl appearance after 7 seasons of head coaching. This is particularly relevant as Sean McDermott is about to enter his seventh season as head coach

 

• The most frequent timeline for a coach's first Super Bowl appearance is two years, closely followed by five years. This trend suggests that many coaches are capable of assembling a Super Bowl-worthy team within the first 5 years of their tenure (77% of these coaches managed to make the Super Bowl within their first 5 seasons)

 

NOTE: The data is across the coaches entire NFL career. For example, if a coach spent 5 years on his first team, and 4 years on his second team (before making a Super Bowl) the data tallies 9 total seasons prior to his inaugural Super Bowl appearance.

 

NOTE 2: The Sean McDermott line is where McDermott will be after this upcoming season.

 

the chart cuts off some of the names because the list is so long, but the data is there.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Einstein

[Draconator]

This is pointless until you post your 2020 through 2023 tax return. 

[Mr. WEO]

8 minutes ago, Einstein said:

The tenure of Sean McDermott as head coach and the appropriate "leash" to allow him to lead this team to the Super Bowl has been a topic of considerable debate on this forum. While there's a consensus that he deserves additional time, the crux of the argument lies in determining the precise length of this leash.

 

To shed light on this, I conducted a simple data study, examining the trajectory of every NFL head coach who has led their team to the Super Bowl (not necessarily winning, just reaching the final game) over the past 40 NFL seasons.

 

Here is what the data revealed:

 

• On average, it takes a head coach 4.2 seasons to reach his first Super Bowl.
• Only 5 coaches in the past 40 years have made their inaugural Super Bowl appearance after 7 seasons of head coaching. This is particularly relevant as Sean McDermott is about to enter his seventh season as head coach
• The most frequent timeline for a coach's first Super Bowl appearance is two years, closely followed by five years. This trend suggests that many coaches are capable of assembling a Super Bowl-worthy team within the first 5 years of their tenure (77% of these coaches managed to make the Super Bowl within their first 5 seasons)

 

NOTE: The data is across the coaches entire NFL career. For example, if a coach spent 5 years on his first team, and 4 years on his second team (before making a Super Bowl) the data tallies 9 total seasons prior to his inaugural Super Bowl appearance.

 

NOTE 2: The Sean McDermott line is where McDermott will be after this upcoming season.

 

edit: I accidentally cut off the legend of my chart.

 

no one can cut off a legend...

[fergie's ire]

A big problem in NFL is sample size. There actually aren't a huge number of coaches who have gone to the super bowl.  Also, what to make of a coach like Andy Reid?  On the thread about preferred coaches, I think he was number one.  Okay, so he made it within 7 years (his sixth year).  So I guess that makes him a good coach who can make the Super Bowl.  But after that he went 15 (yes, 15) years before reaching another one.  Is he still a good coach who demonstrates he can reach the Super Bowl because he got to one early?  Or is he a coach who can't make because of all those years in the middle?  Would it have been significant if the 15 years were in the beginning rather than the middle?  I'm just not sure.

[Rico]

10 minutes ago, Einstein said:

The tenure of Sean McDermott as head coach and the appropriate "leash" to allow him to lead this team to the Super Bowl has been a topic of considerable debate on this forum. While there's a consensus that he deserves additional time, the crux of the argument lies in determining the precise length of this leash.

 

To shed light on this, I conducted a simple data study, examining the trajectory of every NFL head coach who has led their team to the Super Bowl (not necessarily winning, just reaching the final game) over the past 40 NFL seasons.

 

Here is what the data revealed:

 

• On average, it takes a head coach 4.2 seasons to reach his first Super Bowl.
• Only 5 coaches in the past 40 years have made their inaugural Super Bowl appearance after 7 seasons of head coaching. This is particularly relevant as Sean McDermott is about to enter his seventh season as head coach
• The most frequent timeline for a coach's first Super Bowl appearance is two years, closely followed by five years. This trend suggests that many coaches are capable of assembling a Super Bowl-worthy team within the first 5 years of their tenure (77% of these coaches managed to make the Super Bowl within their first 5 seasons)

 

NOTE: The data is across the coaches entire NFL career. For example, if a coach spent 5 years on his first team, and 4 years on his second team (before making a Super Bowl) the data tallies 9 total seasons prior to his inaugural Super Bowl appearance.

 

NOTE 2: The Sean McDermott line is where McDermott will be after this upcoming season.

 

edit: I accidentally cut off the legend of my chart making it useless. Will update when im back to a computer.

Where were you during the Drought years when there was something to legitimately b#tch about? We could’ve used you back then.

[Einstein]

3 minutes ago, fergie's ire said:

A big problem in NFL is sample size. There actually aren't a huge number of coaches who have gone to the super bowl. 

Exactly. That's why teams should always be searching for one who can.

 

 

7 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

no one can cut off a legend...

 

Haha. Got it fixed!

[MJS]

You should do an analysis of coaches who are fired after consecutive 10+ win seasons, winning the division, winning playoff games, and having top 10 ranked offenses and defenses. I bet the list is pretty small.

 

Not making a superbowl is not what will get a coach fired. Having subpar seasons will get you fired, such as missing the playoffs multiple times, or not being able to win a playoff game after a bunch of tries, or having losing seasons.

 

Getting to the playoffs and winning playoff games after winning the division and having excellent regular season records is just not going to get you fired, usually.

[Einstein]

Just now, MJS said:

You should do an analysis of coaches who are fired after consecutive 10+ win seasons, winning the division, winning playoff games, and having top 10 ranked offenses and defenses. I bet the list is pretty small.

 

I haven't done that analysis yet, but lots of coaches on the Super Bowl list had been fired. Several of them after only 1 down year following several great years.

[Augie]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

You should do an analysis of coaches who are fired after consecutive 10+ win seasons, winning the division, winning playoff games, and having top 10 ranked offenses and defenses. I bet the list is pretty small.

 

Not making a superbowl is not what will get a coach fired. Having subpar seasons will get you fired, such as missing the playoffs multiple times, or not being able to win a playoff game after a bunch of tries, or having losing seasons.

 

Getting to the playoffs and winning playoff games after winning the division and having excellent regular season records is just not going to get you fired, usually.

 

And yet the Crusade continues! Go figure! 

[machine gun kelly]

McD has a .639% winning % as a Bills HC.  That’s #1 in Bills history eclipsing Saban and Levy.

 

Cut the McD passive aggressive crap Einstein.  It’s as transparent as the rest of you’re posts.

 

All you ever do is try and poke holes in anything that instills confidence in this fan base towards the team they love.

 

I’ll enjoy and remind you when we win the Lombardi.  It will happen one day and the Pegulas made a regal decision extending the dream team.

 

Well deserved!

 

Or do you want to go back to the drought for 17 years as I know those years painfully well.  We were a hot mess with poor decisions at all levels for decades.  It is the same second guessing decisions and quick ridiculous decisions that were short sighted that kept us in the Mohave Desert.

 

I never want to back to that HELL!

[MJS]

Just now, Einstein said:

I haven't done that analysis yet, but lots of coaches on the Super Bowl list had been fired. Several of them after only 1 down year following several great years.

McDermott hasn't had even one down year unless you want to count Allen's rookie season.

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, machine gun kelly said:

I’ll enjoy and remind you when we win the Lombardi.  

 

I'll be celebrating right next to you.

[Freddie's Dead]

I never made it without biting, ask Mr. Owl.

Uh Wuhunn, Toohoo, Thuhree, <crunch>, Thuhree....

[Augie]

So, if someone is on ignore, does that mean the threads they start don’t show up? Asking for a friend. 

[LeGOATski]

Is John Gruden a great football head coach?

[Success]

How to make a hot fudge sundae:

 

Put vanilla ice cream into a bowl. The preference here is a top-tier brand. Don't get lazy or cheap on this vital component.

 

Pour hot fudge over the ice cream.  Whipped cream & cherry are optional.  Any sort of nut is for the adventurous among us.

 

Enjoy.

 

[Augie]

1 hour ago, LeGOATski said:

Is John Gruden a great football head coach?

 

He’s not even a good person, from my experience. He got a ring with Tony Dungy’s team against his old team and they were too stupid to change anything for the Super Bowl. He coached against Bill Callahan who has an NFL career winning percentage of .419. HE made a Super Bowl! Does that make him a good coach?  

 

Does anyone want a .419 Bill Callahan for coach? He must be special! He reached the pinnacle of his profession! 

 

….or do you want McD? 

 

 

.

 

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by Augie

[notwoz]

Boy, you make pretty charts. Can you turn this into a Powerpoint presentation? Now that would be truly enervating.

 

[LeGOATski]

2 minutes ago, Success said:

 Any sort of nut is for the adventurous among us.

 

This is an exaggeration. The truth it that nuts are just for people who like nuts.

 

I call those people nut huggers.

1 minute ago, Augie said:

 

He’s not even a good person, from my experience. He got a ring with Tony Dungy’s team against his old team and they were too stupid to change anything for the Super Bowl. He coached against Bill Callahan who has an NFL career winning percentage of .419. HE made a Super Bowl! Does that make him a good coach? 

I don't think so, but I'm no Einstein 

[BuffaloBillyG]

I swear I've seen the same thread before...only this has a pretty chart. I mean, a pie chart would have been better because...well...I like pie.