Josh Allen and the passing offense

[Charles Romes]

I think Kincaid can reach 800 yards. Allen has never had a receiving target with great hands until Kincaid. Diggs has good hands but not great hands. Allen has thrown a lot lately to targets with poor hands and he’s sick of the drops. 

[newcam2012]

11 minutes ago, Airseven said:

OL is still a problem. Torrence is a nice addition and hopefully he pans out. Otherwise it’s the same group with weak tackles. McGovern is not an upgrade. Allen will get rattled once again.

I think McGovern is a nice pick up and and upgrade. Torrance is a rookie so he will have a learning adjustment. Hopefully, he will round into form towards the end of the year. David Edwards if healthy could be pretty good. Brown being healthy can't hurt. 

 

In short, I do feel like the oline has improved on paper. Is it enough? That I don't know.

 

Seems like it's a work in progress. That's the big issue I have with Beane. He's had six years to solidify the line. At this point, the oline should be very good and little tweaks should be occurring. 

[Hermes]

8 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Under 4k in a 17 game season is less than 235 yards a game.   I don’t see Allen going for that little and the Bills winning on average.

The added game makes the baseline  higher

 

10 hours ago, Rockinon said:

Allen will break a single game record, at least, I think. This is still predominantly a passing offense. I also think the run game will improve, which is only going to enhance the passing game, not make it take a step backwards. Just imagining Josh with time in the pocket... a very distinct possibility. Just imagine Josh having the luxury to hand off rather than pass on every play. Just imagine our new TE being effective and defenses having to choose between 2 high safeties or one.

 

The whole dynamic of the offense changed. We have a bigger, badder OL. We have bigger, badder RBs. We have a bigger, badder version of Cole Beasely moving the sticks. Perhaps one of these changes don't end up being an improvement over prior years...naw, screw it. I think these are major improvements. The offense is going to be unstoppable. That means a lot of yards. A lot of TDs. Records are coming.

 

I started this just thinking what would be ideal for Diggs, Davis, and Kincaid this year. I had to shave about 500 yards and 5 TD's from just those three once I realized how ridiculous Allen's line could be this year.  The Bills want him to run less and throw more, be more efficient in both, and use the traditional run to close out games and at the end of the half. 

45 minutes ago, Airseven said:

OL is still a problem. Torrence is a nice addition and hopefully he pans out. Otherwise it’s the same group with weak tackles. McGovern is not an upgrade. Allen will get rattled once again.

 

The main difference being now he has a safety valve in the middle of the field that's 6'4" and can move.

[Hermes]

39 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I think McGovern is a nice pick up and and upgrade. Torrance is a rookie so he will have a learning adjustment. Hopefully, he will round into form towards the end of the year. David Edwards if healthy could be pretty good. Brown being healthy can't hurt. 

 

In short, I do feel like the oline has improved on paper. Is it enough? That I don't know.

 

Seems like it's a work in progress. That's the big issue I have with Beane. He's had six years to solidify the line. At this point, the oline should be very good and little tweaks should be occurring. 

 

He's making those tweaks everywhere else on the roster though. He just whiffed on his guards to this point. If they kept Teller and Ford panned out it wouldn't be an issue at all. He swung and missed. No big deal

Edited May 3, 2023 by Hermes

[strive_for_five_guy]

23 hours ago, Hermes said:

After the season ended it appears that Brandon Beane asked himself how can I make this team better; and decided that we're going to live and die by our offense. (You only need to stop them once if they can't stop you at all)

 

With 2 projected o-line upgrades, an upgrade to the 3rd receiving option, and more speed and size added to the wide receiver room. The Bills are looking in prime position to do improve what was last year a top 5 offense.

 

With that said, the aforementioned facts got me thinking about how the Bills offense projects out this year, statistically speaking.

Based on the past few season averages and some (probably incorrect) projections on my part, the floor for Josh Allen is set at 5,000 yards passing and ~50 tds. 

 

I'm not entirely sure what to think of the Bills ground game this year so I'm not going to touch on that.

 

 

Diggs       115    1400    10

Davis       60     1000     8

Kincaid    40     400      5

Shakir      40     500      3

Knox        50     500      8

Cook        25     200      5

Shorter    10      150      1

Harty        30     450     4

Sherfield  15      200     2

Hines        10      85       1

Morris       10      115      1

 

Allen

450 5000 48

 

 

 

 

 

(P.S. A huge thanks to the resident draft experts here on TSW. I love reading all of your insight and getting to know the prospects better through your work.)

Thanks for the thread.  Given the new additions, I think you’re a little heavy in terms of production for Diggs, Davis & Knox, and overall TDs.  With the new mouths to feed and younger players developing (Cook, Shakir), I’d see some of the vets’ getting relief in targets.  But who knows, could open some of them up more instead!  Will be interesting to see where Dorsey wants to go with this offense.

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Airseven said:

OL is still a problem. Torrence is a nice addition and hopefully he pans out. Otherwise it’s the same group with weak tackles. McGovern is not an upgrade. Allen will get rattled once again.

McGovern is a HUGE upgrade of Saffold in pass blocking.  The Bills go from having the worst pass blocking guard to one that is solidly in the middle of the pack.  That jump alone is a big improvement on the O -line.  Add in Torrence and Edwards competing with Bates at the other guard and the Bills probably improved their O line as much as possible given the reality of CAP constraints.

 

 

[newcam2012]

4 hours ago, Hermes said:

 

He's making those tweaks everywhere else on the roster though. He just whiffed on his guards to this point. If they kept Teller and Ford panned out it wouldn't be an issue at all. He swung and missed. No big deal

Swinging and missing is a big deal.

[Hermes]

3 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Swinging and missing is a big deal.

 

It's better than not swinging at all. This off-season he added 4(!) Guards to the roster. It's almost as if his approach was to fill all of the high priced/priority positions over the course of the first 5 years of his tenure and now Beane is doing the final tinkering to the roster that you're talking about. If you look at the roster as a whole instead of individual parts it makes more sense. (I.e the whole equals more than the sum of its parts)

[Hermes]

8 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Thanks for the thread.  Given the new additions, I think you’re a little heavy in terms of production for Diggs, Davis & Knox, and overall TDs.  With the new mouths to feed and younger players developing (Cook, Shakir), I’d see some of the vets’ getting relief in targets.  But who knows, could open some of them up more instead!  Will be interesting to see where Dorsey wants to go with this offense.

 

I'm super excited to see how the offense looks this year and especially the amount of 12 personnel they run vs. league average, considering Kincaid. This is going to be a fun season regardless of outcome. The AFCE is bringing the heat and I'm here for it.

[DieHardBillsFan]

On 5/2/2023 at 12:00 PM, machine gun kelly said:

I like this one, but I would adjust Knox to 600-650, and lower Shakir to 300.  Don’t forget Knox had to be a bit distracted for the first half of the year given the sudden death of his brother.  That would mess anyone up and happened right at the beginning of the year.  The prior year he had 9 passing TD’s.

That is a good observation. I agree with for Shakir possibly but I think Knox will have less while sharing or trading passing downs with Kincaid.

[DieHardBillsFan]

On 5/2/2023 at 12:50 PM, AuntieEm said:

 

Yes, he may no longer rack up yards via in air distances but he will offset that easily with his checkdowns to 'Swole' Beasley and any rbs that are active any given game.  I think that one record he could break, qbs yac totals of his receivers.  I don't even know if they keep track of this as Yac is a receiver record.  

 

Once the opponents try to shut down his short game that will open up all the longer throws that Josh can see when a defender is beaten for those easy yards as well.  The perfect game vs Patriots is an example of what's possible with a balanced Josh while still having his gunslinger elements the teams have to respect.  

 

In turn the added benefit of his perfecting the short game is that the oline improvements will be amplified as Josh still is one of the better qbs under pressure. So his oline being upgraded  and having bigger stronger elements.

 

'Cyborg' is gonna be a big upgrade and what I liked best reading some reports on him was that he studies film to understand the way players play against him.  I think the pro game is gonna be an easy transition for him as a result and that will be a big reason opponents will find it hard to get Josh and the boys off the field.    

 

 Guess another record I expect Josh to break then is  and it will be the NFL record for avg TOP per game by QB.  I wouldn't mind them pulling Josh from some games when he does have a turnover but in 4Q the team has a comfortable margin of points that it is unlikely the opponent will mount a comeback.  If the offense has not been stopped you leave Josh in for the records he is capable of.

 

I could think of many possibilities because Josh has so many strengths and if he learns to channel his chaotic play to a icy calculating attack then no one stopping the guys from the frozen tundra of western NY.  

 

 

 

 

I am hoping for a big improvement in YAC since he will be checking down or even designing more mid range pass plays more often.

[SCBills]

On 5/2/2023 at 12:06 PM, Hermes said:

 

I don't know man. It's hard to lose games when you score 30+ points. The only thing the Bills did to bolster the run game was add some RBs. All of the guards they added tend to pass block better than run block and the other top players they were linked to were all pass catching options. The Bills are looking to put points on the board RBs and run game be damned!

I don’t know that we will be so drastic that we look like some of those post-injury Allen games last year, but they have done quite a bit to address the running game…

 

-Year 2 in Kromer’s system.  I’m hesitant to rely on this, but quite a few former Kromer players talk about making jumps in the second year of his system.  
 

-McGovern is a pass pro guy, but Torrence will absolutely help the run game.  Beane is correct in saying he probably helps more in the pass game early on, but Torrence next to Brown gives us a mauling right side of the OL. 
 

-12 (11.5) personnnel.  Kincaid isn’t Knox when it comes to blocking, but he’s an average blocking TE.  Bills should be able to take advantage of situational runs when teams try to defend him with a DB. 
 

-Harris & Murray.  Zero doubt in my mind, with these signings, that the Bills want a traditional short yardage/goal line run attack.  
 

Better pass pro and an effective short passing game is what we truly need.  I think they addressed that, but in doing that, they also should have a better run game to turn to when they so choose. 

[AuntieEm]

If he shows improvement with the mental game, meaning he can correctly choose the best play for whatever the defense does after the snap then it will more than makeup for a slightly weaker defense if that happens.  I think the defense will be well rested in games Josh controls the drives to be long time consuming ones that will put pressure on the opposing qb.  So Josh can still play 'hero' ball just let him do it with his decisions not his running.

 

 

 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Team wise there is no career record Allen can pass. He’s firmly the #3 on the All-Time list. The single season records could fall. 

[Hermes]

3 hours ago, SCBills said:

I don’t know that we will be so drastic that we look like some of those post-injury Allen games last year, but they have done quite a bit to address the running game…

 

-Year 2 in Kromer’s system.  I’m hesitant to rely on this, but quite a few former Kromer players talk about making jumps in the second year of his system.  
 

-McGovern is a pass pro guy, but Torrence will absolutely help the run game.  Beane is correct in saying he probably helps more in the pass game early on, but Torrence next to Brown gives us a mauling right side of the OL. 
 

-12 (11.5) personnnel.  Kincaid isn’t Knox when it comes to blocking, but he’s an average blocking TE.  Bills should be able to take advantage of situational runs when teams try to defend him with a DB. 
 

-Harris & Murray.  Zero doubt in my mind, with these signings, that the Bills want a traditional short yardage/goal line run attack.  
 

Better pass pro and an effective short passing game is what we truly need.  I think they addressed that, but in doing that, they also should have a better run game to turn to when they so choose. 

 

Great points! It's going to take some serious defensive heroics to stop this offense. Teams will have to be deep and versatile across the entire defense.  Fingers crossed Dorsey can unlock the potential if these players and give us a show we won't soon forget.

[Hermes]

Also, how many great offenses do the Bills play this season? Chiefs, Bengals, Jets (2x), Cowboys, Jags, Dolphins (2x), Chargers... 

 

Not many of these project out to low scoring affairs. The Bills are gonna have to outscore some of the top offenses in the league.

 

But, yeah.. let's run the ball more

[stevestojan]

1) a billion

2) a million 

3) every record in every record book. Ever. 
 

Tempered expectations last year. ***** that. 

[Buffalo716]

6 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Team wise there is no career record Allen can pass. He’s firmly the #3 on the All-Time list. The single season records could fall. 

He can’t beat the #1 passing yards record ? Or Passing TD record? Or all time TDs??

 

ok

[machine gun kelly]

19 hours ago, Hermes said:

Also, how many great offenses do the Bills play this season? Chiefs, Bengals, Jets (2x), Cowboys, Jags, Dolphins (2x), Chargers... 

 

Not many of these project out to low scoring affairs. The Bills are gonna have to outscore some of the top offenses in the league.

 

But, yeah.. let's run the ball more

I believe we’ll win, but I expect the Giants in year 2 of Schoen and Davall will put even more of their stamp on the team.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 5/3/2023 at 2:03 PM, Hermes said:

 

It's better than not swinging at all. This off-season he added 4(!) Guards to the roster. It's almost as if his approach was to fill all of the high priced/priority positions over the course of the first 5 years of his tenure and now Beane is doing the final tinkering to the roster that you're talking about. If you look at the roster as a whole instead of individual parts it makes more sense. (I.e the whole equals more than the sum of its parts)

Beane’s biggest blunder IMO was using 3 day two picks over a 4 year period on the least valuable position in all of football, RB. 
 

Moss and Cook should have never been drafted. Should have been day 2 RB in 2019 and day 2 RB this year. 
 

That would have meant two more day 2 picks that could have been used on the o-line in the 2020 and 2022 drafts. 

[Hermes]

36 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Beane’s biggest blunder IMO was using 3 day two picks over a 4 year period on the least valuable position in all of football, RB. 
 

Moss and Cook should have never been drafted. Should have been day 2 RB in 2019 and day 2 RB this year. 
 

That would have meant two more day 2 picks that could have been used on the o-line in the 2020 and 2022 drafts. 

Interesting perspective. I don't disagree with moss. But, I think the plan is to cycle through drafted Rbs every 3-4 and not pay a big 2nd contract for one.

 

Moss and Singletary never did anything expectional, and that was the problem drafting them.  They were solid but had a capped potential ceiling. Then again it could have been part of the plan, since the oline was in rough shape at that point.  It's impossible to know exactly how all of these moves affected each other

1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

I believe we’ll win, but I expect the Giants in year 2 of Schoen and Davall will put even more of their stamp on the team.

I've kind of adopted the Giants as my number 2 team.. I'm excited to see what Daboll has in store for their future

[machine gun kelly]

20 hours ago, Hermes said:

Interesting perspective. I don't disagree with moss. But, I think the plan is to cycle through drafted Rbs every 3-4 and not pay a big 2nd contract for one.

 

Moss and Singletary never did anything expectional, and that was the problem drafting them.  They were solid but had a capped potential ceiling. Then again it could have been part of the plan, since the oline was in rough shape at that point.  It's impossible to know exactly how all of these moves affected each other

I've kind of adopted the Giants as my number 2 team.. I'm excited to see what Daboll has in store for their future

I like your take Hermes and something to think about on RB’s in RD 3, and as far as the Giants, I’m with you.  Between them beating the Pats and putting crap in their pipe the undefeated year, and now Schoen and Dabs is something I enjoy.

 

Considering my kids Bucs are a dumpster fire, I enjoy having an NFC team to root for when their opponent wears red, white, and royal blue.

[ganesh]

On 5/2/2023 at 8:11 PM, PBF81 said:

So much depends upon Dorsey. 

why?