Down Years Will Come. When You Have an Elite QB, Even Down Years Aren't So Bad.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Brees is the outlier. Those are some bad years for a QB of his caliber on the team. None of us would find a 9-8 season or worse with Allen acceptable. 

[corta765]

13 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Brees is the outlier. Those are some bad years for a QB of his caliber on the team. None of us would find a 9-8 season or worse with Allen acceptable. 

 

Brees was legit screwed by the way the NFL handled bountygate. Headcoach was gone a full year, draft picks gone, and cap space altered. 2014-16 shows what happens when a team gets blown to bits for a year. They recovered to make the playoffs in 13, but you lose years of development with what happened.

[ColoradoBills]

Of course winning the SB is the goal.  Bills have a great team.  Great teams have higher expectations.

Even with a great team it does still come down to how many other great teams are out there.

It then becomes an odds thing.  Playoff matchups, injuries and luck play a part of success too.

The road to the SB is easier if your team is in the NFC.  That is pretty obvious right now.

 

I kind of think that an average season now is the Bills are in the Divisional Round of the playoffs and it's whether or not they can win that game

which will decide if the season can be better than expected or worse.  Get to the final 4 as often as possible makes the odds much better.

I believe that is what Beane talks about.

 

Bills had a tough year last year.  Fans can decide for themselves if they want to hate the team for what happened or see the circumstances

as affecting the overall results.

 

 

 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

I’d be really curious on how many teams in the Super Bowl era have made the playoffs four straight years with an equal or better winning percentage but didn’t get to a Super Bowl. There’s gotta be someone on here who can research that. 

[corta765]

28 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’d be really curious on how many teams in the Super Bowl era have made the playoffs four straight years with an equal or better winning percentage but didn’t get to a Super Bowl. There’s gotta be someone on here who can research that. 

 

happens way more then you think. Steelers of 2010s, Saints of 2010s, Seahawks of 2010s, etc.. its why making a SB is such a big deal. Getting good is not easy, but then taking that next step to the SB is even more difficult.

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

To me its even more crushing to have an elite QB and get bounced from the playoffs early.

[wppete]

True and for that reason hitting in the draft is very important. Also UDFA. Beane needs to step up. 

[SoCal Deek]

42 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

happens way more then you think. Steelers of 2010s, Saints of 2010s, Seahawks of 2010s, etc.. its why making a SB is such a big deal. Getting good is not easy, but then taking that next step to the SB is even more difficult.

Thanks....I looked it up and the Steelers and Saints qualify but the Seahawks had a year in the middle of that run where they didn't make the playoffs.

[SoCal Deek]

I did a bit more research and the early 2000s Indianapolis Colts had a very similar playoff history and regular season win percentage as the current rendition of the Buffalo Bills. After being eliminated in the playoffs for four straight seasons the Colts then won the Super Bowl in 2006.

 

So there’s hope! 👍

[John from Riverside]

On 3/28/2023 at 8:49 AM, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Ah yes, let's lower those expectations

 

I didn’t look at that post is lowering expectations. I think it’s more like you have to be in it to win it.
 

Making a wild card and then going on to win it all It’s also a way that it could go.

 

A single elimination game anything can happen

[SoCal Deek]

8 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I didn’t look at that post is lowering expectations. I think it’s more like you have to be in it to win it.
 

Making a wild card and then going on to win it all It’s also a way that it could go.

 

A single elimination game anything can happen

That’s why I looked into the history of what I consider similar teams. And the Colts appear to the closest parallel to the Bills considering they had Peyton Manning during that era. They won consistently during that but couldn’t get over the proverbial hump until Year 5 of their streak. It’s also interesting to note that they continued their regular season success for four more years after their championship season although never won it again. 
 

Starting in 1999 the Colts went:

 

13-3

10-6

6-10 Missed playoffs

10-6

12-4

12-4

14-2

12-4 Super Bowl champions 

13-3

12-4

14-2 Lost Super Bowl

10-6 

 

Looks pretty familiar huh? 

 

[John from Riverside]

6 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

That’s why I looked into the history of what I consider similar teams. And the Colts appear to the closest parallel to the Bills considering they had Peyton Manning during that era. They won consistently during that but couldn’t get over the proverbial hump until Year 5 of their streak. It’s also interesting to note that they continued their regular season success for four more years after their championship season although never won it again. 
 

Starting in 1999 the Colts went:

 

13-3

10-6

6-10 Missed playoffs

10-6

12-4

12-4

14-2

12-4 Super Bowl champions 

13-3

12-4

14-2 Lost Super Bowl

10-6 

 

Looks pretty familiar huh? 

 

Probably what our GM is shooting for

 

Have a chance to win it every year not have down years

 

We look at our team in a vacuum we don’t take into consideration that other teams can also have down years, lose players, players, get injured, etc. etc.

 

This year there were teams that were there at the end that barely made it

 

The year that the Rams won at all, they almost didn’t make it

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Probably what our GM is shooting for

 

Have a chance to win it every year not have down years

 

We look at our team in a vacuum we don’t take into consideration that other teams can also have down years, lose players, players, get injured, etc. etc.

 

This year there were teams that were there at the end that barely made it

 

The year that the Rams won at all, they almost didn’t make it

Exactly! I guarantee that Beane has studied NFL history, and has looked closely at what the Colts (and others) did once they got their franchise quarterback.
 

It’s also interesting to note that during the build up to their championship season the Colts had just lost two playoff games in a row to the Patriots before beating them in the third rematch. It all sounds VERY familiar! 
 

I cannot recall what the Colts did to finally beat their playoff nemesis. What missing piece did they add in 2006? Maybe somebody on here knows. 

[Bulldog]

I am a long-term fan (since 1970) - and I must say that it is so refreshing to be worrying a about a "down year" instead of "down decades" as was sometimes the case in the past, lol. Thanks to the McBeane regime and Josh Allen for bringing so much fun & success into our Bills fandom experience. In my opinion, keeping the team in contention - year after year - increases our likelihood of eventually hoisting a Lombardi trophy more than a reckless "all-in" one year that may or may not succeed & could set the franchise back for years if unsuccessful. 

[John from Riverside]

18 hours ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

To me it’s even more crushing to have an elite QB and get bounced from the playoffs early.

Some truly have gone from not knowing what it’s like to have success  to being very entitled as fans

[78thealltimegreat]

The thing I hope is that Beane doesn’t keep relying on Allen to basically patch holes on the offense so he can keep loading up on defensive personnel in the off seasons to come. 
Hopefully he sees what happened to Josh’s pal Mr Rogers with Green Bay his last 5 or so years there and instead keeps adding to the offense as well 

[SoCal Deek]

By the way…in those years the Colts coach was Tony Dungy. He was widely considered to be an ‘high character’ guy. Anybody seeing the many similarities here? 

[machine gun kelly]

As long as we have JA17, aka Super Allen, we’re ok.  Beane will find us talent, McD calling the defensive plays will help, and Dorsey will grow as a play caller.

 

I still want Hopkins, but expect if happens will be close to the draft if not draft day 1.

 

We can then get one of these stud TE’s. The rest of the draft will be about depth in G, S, and another WR.  Hopkins is a technician so we could use a burner.  We’ll also need a LB.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

By the way…in those years the Colts coach was Tony Dungy. He was widely considered to be an ‘high character’ guy. Anybody seeing the many similarities here? 

I see no similarity to McD. honestly, I can't stand Dungy. as for comparing teams that had down seasons and still got the trophy, one can only hope JA and company can get at least one without any down years. I don't consider up to this point, they have had any down years. down years to me are not making the playoffs for 17 years.

 

making the playoffs, even with an early exit is not a down year to me.

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

10 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

I see no similarity to McD. honestly, I can't stand Dungy. as for comparing teams that had down seasons and still got the trophy, one can only hope JA and company can get at least one without any down years. I don't consider up to this point, they have had any down years. down years to me are not making the playoffs for 17 years.

 

making the playoffs, even with an early exit is not a down year to me.

 

 

Did you look at my historical summary of the Colts run under Manning? It’s amazingly similar to the current Bills. They swooned one time in that run (maybe two) but ‘down’ years? Not really. 

[Success]

The Colts could have easily won that Saints SB, also.  That onside kick turned the whole game. That's part of the game, but a pretty unlucky break for the Colts that the return team couldn't handle that kick.

 

It's a somewhat similar situation.  The Colts had to deal w/ the massive obstacle New England presented.  We have the Chiefs & Bengals.

 

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Exactly! I guarantee that Beane has studied NFL history, and has looked closely at what the Colts (and others) did once they got their franchise quarterback.
 

It’s also interesting to note that during the build up to their championship season the Colts had just lost two playoff games in a row to the Patriots before beating them in the third rematch. It all sounds VERY familiar! 
 

I cannot recall what the Colts did to finally beat their playoff nemesis. What missing piece did they add in 2006? Maybe somebody on here knows. 

They changed coach in the middle of all that. Dungy came on starting the 02-03 season. What finally got them over the hump was Peyton Manning matured and started playing better when he faced BB’s defense. When he finally slayed that dragon they won the superbowl. It was also the 5th year of the Dungy/Peyton era. Throughout NFL history no coach/qb combo has ever won their 1st superbowl outside of this 5 year window. This past season was McD/Allen’s 5th season together. Maybe that’s the parallel you can glean from that Colts team. 😂 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

19 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Did you look at my historical summary of the Colts run under Manning? It’s amazingly similar to the current Bills. They swooned one time in that run (maybe two) but ‘down’ years? Not really. 

my main take was on comparing Dungy to McD. if that was what you were doing in the post I quoted? as for comparing Manning/JA I see he had a couple down years (compared to JA's 1 so far) his rookie season (3-13) and again his 3rd (6-10) season. won the SB in his 8th (12-4) season. 13 seasons with the colts and making the playoffs in 11 of them while coming away with one SB win. not too shabby.

 

now enter JA. rookie season 6-10. then 4 straight playoff appearances. similar? to a point but honestly I believe the chances as long as JA is under center, they have a chance every year to make the playoffs. no need to put the cart before the horse though and let it play out. so, he could have the same or better success than Manning and the colts but personally I wont try to think that far ahead and take it a season at a time. thing is, if he were able to raise the lombardi, would only one be enough in his career? I'd take one and be happy with it but of course there are those who would want more. then Manning went off to denver for 4 seasons, making the playoffs each year and managed to get to the dance twice. losing the SB in his second season and winning it all his last season.

 

I'm hoping JA remains a Bill his whole career and doesn't go off like Manning to another club and win one?

 

at this point, again, I can't really compare too much to Manning and the colts as it all still has to play out yet but I can see how you can compare them early in their careers. 

 

time will tell.

 

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, 90sBills said:

They changed coach in the middle of all that. Dungy came on starting the 02-03 season. What finally got them over the hump was Peyton Manning matured and started playing better when he faced BB’s defense. When he finally slayed that dragon they won the superbowl. It was also the 5th year of the Dungy/Peyton era. Throughout NFL history no coach/qb combo has ever won their 1st superbowl outside of this 5 year window. This past season was McD/Allen’s 5th season together. Maybe that’s the parallel you can glean from that Colts team. 😂 

Thanks

The two teams are obviously not the same but they’re eerily similar. The original OP was based on how we as fans should think of the Bills. Not being a Colts fan I’m not sure I can say how they felt when they kept getting to a point only to lose to the Patriots year after year…but they did finally get over that hurdle, and they didn’t do it by tearing the team apart and starting over. 
 

One thing the Colts had was their infamous triplets of Manning, Harrison, and James at RB. I’m praying the Bills can find a running game to pair with Allen and Diggs.

 

Go Bills

[Chicken Boo]

There was a thread about the 2004 QB draft class.  Successful as his career was, I do not want the Bills in the SD/Phillip Rivers category.  

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, Chicken Boo said:

There was a thread about the 2004 QB draft class.  Successful as his career was, I do not want the Bills in the SD/Phillip Rivers category.  

Unfortunately this will be the narrative until Allen breaks through. The good news is he’s young and there are plenty of time left for a change to more creative coaching. 

[The Frankish Reich]

6 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Did you look at my historical summary of the Colts run under Manning? It’s amazingly similar to the current Bills. They swooned one time in that run (maybe two) but ‘down’ years? Not really. 

Agreed. And that’s kind of my point in my long post. I started off thinking, “surely there’s an example out there of a great QB (HOF level) who got stuck on such poorly run teams that he produced a long streak of uncompetitive seasons.” That’s simply not the case in the modern NFL. Rosters churn like never before. Coaches get hired and fired. And the great ones lead their team back to the upper tier routinely. In fact they do it all the time. And then those great QBs go to new teams when they’re old. And guess what? Those new teams get good. Brett Favre: twice (Jets, Vikes. I know they both ended badly, but the teams were better with them than they were before them). Joe Montana. Peyton. Kurt Warner. Even Warren Moon. Other than Russell Wilson, you’ve gotta go back to the 70s to find notable late-career Great QB/New Team failures, but those were essentially basket cases like Namath and Unitas.  (This is why I am not joining the chorus of “Aaron Rodgers; Bring It On! posters we seem to have now.)

[SoCal Deek]

2 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Agreed. And that’s kind of my point in my long post. I started off thinking, “surely there’s an example out there of a great QB (HOF level) who got stuck on such poorly run teams that he produced a long streak of uncompetitive seasons.” That’s simply not the case in the modern NFL. Rosters churn like never before. Coaches get hired and fired. And the great ones lead their team back to the upper tier routinely. In fact they do it all the time. And then those great QBs go to new teams when they’re old. And guess what? Those new teams get good. Brett Favre: twice (Jets, Vikes. I know they both ended badly, but the teams were better with them than they were before them). Joe Montana. Peyton. Kurt Warner. Even Warren Moon. Other than Russell Wilson, you’ve gotta go back to the 70s to find notable late-career Great QB/New Team failures, but those were essentially basket cases like Namath and Unitas.  (This is why I am not joining the chorus of “Aaron Rodgers; Bring It On! posters we seem to have now.)

The Colts were the best parallel I could find. I honestly can’t recall what if anything changed to get them past and over the Patriots with Brady back then…but you have to admit this looks an awful lot like the present Bills and the Chiefs with Mahomes. Maybe nothing changed. Maybe Manning just finally broke through. I hope Josh is talking with Peyton over this summer.