A picture of Von Miller and D Henry

[TheFunPolice]

The biggest issue with a monster talent at RB is that he's beat up/injured by the time the biggest games come along in late December and then the playoffs. 

 

Someone in the NFL is going to adopt the "load management" philosophy with those types of players someday and look like a genius. 

 

These guys look unstoppable in September and by January they are on IR or a shell of themselves. 

 

Regardless of his health, I wouldn't play Miller until week 14 next season, just to ramp him up. We need him in January, not September. 

Edited February 27, 2023 by TheFunPolice

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

The biggest issue with a monster talent at RB is that he's beat up/injured by the time the biggest games come along in late December and then the playoffs. 

 

Someone in the NFL is going to adopt the "load management" philosophy with those types of players someday and look like a genius. 

 

These guys look unstoppable in September and by January they are on IR or a shell of themselves. 

Sean Payton has done this over the years. Go back and look at the leading rushers for his really good Saints teams starting with the 2009 SB-winning team. 

[BADOLBILZ]

47 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Thinking about this. Here's a rough list of the most productive RBs of the past quarter century or so who had legit 3-5 year bursts, in no particular order:

 

Priest Holmes (undrafted)

Arian Foster (undrafted)

Dalvin Cook (second round)

Ezekiel Elliott (first round)

Austin Ekeler (undrafted)

Jonathan Taylor (second round)

Christian McCaffrey (first round)

Josh Jacobs (first round)

Todd Gurley (first round)

Aaron Jones (fifth round)

Frank Gore (third round)

Terrell Davis (sixth round)
Shady (second round)

Corey Dillon (second round)

Derrick Henry (second round)

Adrian Peterson (first round)

Marshawn (first round)

Le'Veon Bell (second round)

Alvin Kamara (third round)

Nick Chubb (second round)

Chris Johnson (first round)

Jamal Lewis (first round)

Jamaal Charles (third round)

Maurice Jones-Drew (second round)

Stephen Jackson (first round)

Ray Rice (second round)

Michael Turner (fifth round)

Thomas Jones (first round, but a late bloomer who did nothing for the team that drafted him)

Ladanian Tomlinson (first round)

Clinton Portis (second round) 
Brandon Jacobs (fourth round)

Edgerrin James (first round)

Warrick Dunn (first round)

Willie Parker (undrafted)

Fred Taylor (first round)

Marshall Faulk (first round)

Tiki Barber (second round)

Deuce McAllister (first round)

Ahman Green (third round)

Shaun Alexander (first round)

Larry Johnson (first round, but only two really good seasons)

Curtis Martin (third round)

Ricky Williams (first round)

Stephen Davis (fourth round)

Eddie George (first round)

 

An interesting fact: most of the really productive backs were thriving in the 1998-2012 (or so) period. In 2021, there were only seven 1,000-yard rushers in a 17-game season (seven in 2015 too). In 2000 and 2006, there were 23 1,000-yard rushers in a 16-game season. There are some outliers (16 in 2019) but the general trend is decidedly downward over time. 

 

Also, the most productive backs do tend to be taken in rounds 1 and 2 (31 out of 45 here), although there are plenty of really productive players who were either drafted later or undrafted. There are also guys picked later who have 1-2 good seasons max but maybe that's all you need from them: i.e, Ahmad Bradshaw, who won two SBs and was drafted in the seventh round. He had 235 yards from scrimmage in the Giants' 2007 playoff run and a whopping 386 yards from scrimmage in their 2011 run. 

 

The really productive backs also tend to play on teams that are at least pretty good and which make the playoffs, but far more often than not those same teams that rely on highly productive RBs can't get over the hump in the postseason. There are a few exceptions: Terrell Davis (the greatest postseason runner in NFL history), Lynch in 2013, Faulk in 1999, Jamal Lewis in 2000, Ray Rice in 2012 (he had an elite year), Brandon Jacobs in 2007, and Corey Dillon in 2004. 

  

 

 

 

Great list.  And there is no denying that drafting them earlier is much more likely to get you the better individual player..........that goes for all positions.........but their impact in the playoffs is generally small and getting smaller the past decade.    The leading rusher for the winning team in the past 7-8 SB's has averaged about 30 yards or so.  

 

Some of that is split backfields which started to become prevalent in the late 2000's.........but any avenue you take leads to the conclusion that investing significant assets in a RB is not capital well spent.  

 

Every year there is that one guy that some people call an exception............but in the past 30 years the Bills have passed on and lived to regret exactly zero RB's that eventually went round 1.    It's almost certain to be a regrettable choice.

[Billl]

50 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Sean Payton has done this over the years. Go back and look at the leading rushers for his really good Saints teams starting with the 2009 SB-winning team. 

Andy Reid has been doing it for the last several years as well, sometimes by choice and sometimes by circumstance.

[BADOLBILZ]

56 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

The biggest issue with a monster talent at RB is that he's beat up/injured by the time the biggest games come along in late December and then the playoffs. 

 

Someone in the NFL is going to adopt the "load management" philosophy with those types of players someday and look like a genius. 

 

These guys look unstoppable in September and by January they are on IR or a shell of themselves. 

 

Regardless of his health, I wouldn't play Miller until week 14 next season, just to ramp him up. We need him in January, not September. 

 

 

I think the biggest issue is that run defense is all about effort and execution...........and in the playoffs the intensity raises and it gets A LOT harder to run the football.

 

So if your offense is built around getting a certain amount of production from your running backs........you are almost certain to have to change what you have been doing all season in the playoffs.

 

@dave mcbride mentioned the Saints...........I don't think Kamara was injured all those years with the Saints.........he just got neutralized and the Saints weren't able to adapt.

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You really need to have a draft process and stick to it if you want to be consistently good in the draft.......but hey, 1/4 of the league turns over it's staff/schemes every year.........so drafting for need and making exceptions are common mistakes..........which is why very few teams are anything more than average at drafting.

 

I wouldn't take a RB in round 1 ever for reasons already mentioned but regarding him being an "exception"........Robinson lacks the HR speed of Saquon Barkley.........who would run a 4.3-4.35 on the new Indy surface.......so they aren't really comps, IMO.

 

Doesn't mean he can't be great........Arian Foster had a similar style and was a 4.68 speed then (about 4.6 by on todays tracks most likely) and averaged over 1400 yards rushing in a 3 year stretch as the best RB in the NFL at the time.    

 

But Arian Foster was undrafted.   

 

It's just not that hard to find RB production. 

 

I think a lot depends on the Bills board. Let me give you this example. 

 

Base on the Bills BPA board say they have Robinson ranked 11th. Come pick 27 he's on the board. Based on the existing board the next BPA is ranked 22. The best WR is ranked 31 and OL is ranked 28th. 

 

In essence, Robinson is sticking out like a sore thumb. It would be quite difficult next to select Robinson. 

 

Also, I would like to address Breece Hall. He looked fantastic in his limited sample size. Looked like frankly a dynamic weapon that really helped the Jets offense. That kind of production looked every bit worth the pick. 

 

As for your earlier statement about having a draft process ans sticking to it. Agree you have to have a plan but you can't be rigid. You have to have a plan A,B, and C. The draft is fluid, ever changing, and often unpredictable. 

 

I think it's wise for teams to look at metrics, stats, and probabilities. However, there is a human factor and intangibles that have to be in play too. It's a science but not an exact one. I'll use Oliver as an example. He was clearly an undersized DL based on NFL standards. I'm assuming that's why he dropped to the Bills. They liked what the saw, heard, and valued that more than the negative frame. After the fact, there were much better picks the Bills could have made. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I think a lot depends on the Bills board. Let me give you this example. 

 

Base on the Bills BPA board say they have Robinson ranked 11th. Come pick 27 he's on the board. Based on the existing board the next BPA is ranked 22. The best WR is ranked 31 and OL is ranked 28th. 

 

In essence, Robinson is sticking out like a sore thumb. It would be quite difficult next to select Robinson. 

 

Also, I would like to address Breece Hall. He looked fantastic in his limited sample size. Looked like frankly a dynamic weapon that really helped the Jets offense. That kind of production looked every bit worth the pick. 

 

As for your earlier statement about having a draft process ans sticking to it. Agree you have to have a plan but you can't be rigid. You have to have a plan A,B, and C. The draft is fluid, ever changing, and often unpredictable. 

 

I think it's wise for teams to look at metrics, stats, and probabilities. However, there is a human factor and intangibles that have to be in play too. It's a science but not an exact one. I'll use Oliver as an example. He was clearly an undersized DL based on NFL standards. I'm assuming that's why he dropped to the Bills. They liked what the saw, heard, and valued that more than the negative frame. After the fact, there were much better picks the Bills could have made. 

 

 

There are things that you have to be flexible about........like being willing to trade up or down, for instance.  

 

Then there are things that you should never do..........there is no process that doesn't have absolutes.

 

RB in round 1 you really have to draw a line there if you are being reasonable.    The data is just overwhelmingly against going RB, regardless of pedigree.   

 

We were actually saying this back in the 90's when the Bills drafted Antowain Smith......and then shared backfields happened (IMMEDIATELY after the Bills decided Travis Henry and Willis McGahee couldn't possibly be asked to split carries).........and then the rules changes of 2010 happened.

 

I'm not saying Beane feels that way at all.........he's thrown a lot of day 2 draft capital at RB's and he was brought up in Carolina where they drafted RB's in round 1 three times while he worked there.   

 

As for Ed Oliver.........all his selection does is make me want to be more process oriented on draft day.   I wanted Metcalf there..........but was satisfied with an interior lineman because we could characterize Oliver as a pass rusher.   That hasn't panned out.   And I should have known better too.........because I knew then that he couldn't play DE.   I was seemingly the only TSW advocate of selecting Aaron Donald in round 1 back in 2014........but I knew Donald could play DE.   That's an example of what your thought process does when you are willing to overlook things that separate the rare "exceptions" that worked.  

 

 

 

 

Edited February 27, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[Buffalo03]

On 2/26/2023 at 1:06 PM, Billl said:

They handed or threw him the ball 390 times.  That’s exactly one TD per 30 plays at 4.8 yards apiece.  

People said the same sh*t about McCaffrey and Barkley and Hopkins, and Evans. A good player is a no go to most fans 😂

[newcam2012]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

There are things that you have to be flexible about........like being willing to trade up or down, for instance.  

 

Then there are things that you should never do..........there is no process that doesn't have absolutes.

 

RB in round 1 you really have to draw a line there if you are being reasonable.    The data is just overwhelmingly against going RB, regardless of pedigree.   

 

We were actually saying this back in the 90's when the Bills drafted Antowain Smith......and then shared backfields happened (IMMEDIATELY after the Bills decided Travis Henry and Willis McGahee couldn't possibly be asked to split carries).........and then the rules changes of 2010 happened.

 

I'm not saying Beane feels that way at all.........he's thrown a lot of day 2 draft capital at RB's and he was brought up in Carolina where they drafted RB's in round 1 three times while he worked there.   

 

As for Ed Oliver.........all his selection does is make me want to be more process oriented on draft day.   I wanted Metcalf there..........but was satisfied with an interior lineman because we could characterize Oliver as a pass rusher.   That hasn't panned out.   And I should have known better too.........because I knew then that he couldn't play DE.   I was seemingly the only TSW advocate of selecting Aaron Donald in round 1 back in 2014........but I knew Donald could play DE.   That's an example of what your thought process does when you are willing to overlook things that separate the rare "exceptions" that worked.  

 

 

 

 

Nice rationale. 👍

 

[Bill from NYC]

18 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

Great list.  And there is no denying that drafting them earlier is much more likely to get you the better individual player..........that goes for all positions.........but their impact in the playoffs is generally small and getting smaller the past decade.    The leading rusher for the winning team in the past 7-8 SB's has averaged about 30 yards or so.  

 

Some of that is split backfields which started to become prevalent in the late 2000's.........but any avenue you take leads to the conclusion that investing significant assets in a RB is not capital well spent.  

 

Every year there is that one guy that some people call an exception............but in the past 30 years the Bills have passed on and lived to regret exactly zero RB's that eventually went round 1.    It's almost certain to be a regrettable choice.

Even the RBs that they selected (when first round RBs were not such a bad idea) were terrible moves. The reason for this is that they would draft running backs and place them behind absolutely horrid offensive lines. It is something of a Bills tradition (except for a season or 2).

 

In 1997 the Bills drafted Antwain Smith with pick #23. His career was nothing to get excited about but again, the blocking was pathetic. Also, if they really wanted a RB, they could have drafted Corey Dillon who was taken 20 picks later (#43), and was a VERY good player. Not bad enough? Adam Meadows (a fine RT for many years) was drafted with pick #48. The Bills truly were in need of a player like this.

 

In 2003, in one of the all time dumb draft decisions (however not THE dumbest) the Bills ever made, they selected Willis MaGahee at #23.  His injury in college was just so bad that he missed 1 1/4 seasons of football before he played a single down for the Bills. I know that you are against first round guards and I get it, but I was watching that draft screaming for the Bills to draft Eric Steinbach, who went to the Bengals with the first pick of round two. It turned out that Steinbach was an excellent guard and also filled in at LT and wasn't so bad. 

 

Ironically, much of what fans are saying now is the same thing we heard way back when, such as "MaGahee is good!" Yes, he was good. Smith might have been OK too but this was an improper way to build a football team, even back then. Now we have McDermott (notice I didn't say Beane) chasing first round corners and undersized DTs. I hope that it stops. It HAS to!!! We need to protect who I consider to be the most talented QB in football, bar none. Josh can and will win us a Super Bowl if they bring him weapons and protect him. It's just that simple imo.

 

End of rant. 🙂🏈🙂

https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/teams/bills

 

Edited February 28, 2023 by Bill from NYC

[Ga boy]

1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:

Even the RBs that they selected (when first round RBs were not such a bad idea) were terrible moves. The reason for this is that they would draft running backs and place them behind absolutely horrid offensive lines. It is something of a Bills tradition (except for a season or 2).

 

In 1997 the Bills drafted Antwain Smith with pick #23. His career was nothing to get excited about but again, the blocking was pathetic. Also, if they really wanted a RB, they could have drafted Corey Dillon who was taken 20 picks later (#43), and was a VERY good player. Not bad enough? Adam Meadows (a fine RT for many years) was drafted with pick #48. The Bills truly were in need of a player like this.

 

In 2003, in one of the all time dumb draft decisions (however not THE dumbest) the Bills ever made, they selected Willis MaGahee at #23.  His injury in college was just so bad that he missed 1 1/4 seasons of football before he played a single down for the Bills. I know that you are against first round guards and I get it, but I was watching that draft screaming for the Bills to draft Eric Steinbach, who went to the Bengals with the first pick of round two. It turned out that Steinbach was an excellent guard and also filled in at LT and wasn't so bad. 

 

Ironically, much of what fans are saying now is the same thing we heard way back when, such as "MaGahee is good!" Yes, he was good. Smith might have been OK too but this was an improper way to build a football team, even back then. Now we have McDermott (notice I didn't say Beane) chasing first round corners and undersized DTs. I hope that it stops. It HAS to!!! We need to protect who I consider to be the most talented QB in football, bar none. Josh can and will win us a Super Bowl if they bring him weapons and protect him. It's just that simple imo.

 

End of rant. 🙂🏈🙂

Agree.  Must go OL in R1 and R2.  Even if Robinson is there in R1, hard pass.  Our #1 RB should be Cook next year.  He’ll add 15 lbs and will be elite. Go Bills!

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:

Even the RBs that they selected (when first round RBs were not such a bad idea) were terrible moves. The reason for this is that they would draft running backs and place them behind absolutely horrid offensive lines. It is something of a Bills tradition (except for a season or 2).

 

In 1997 the Bills drafted Antwain Smith with pick #23. His career was nothing to get excited about but again, the blocking was pathetic. Also, if they really wanted a RB, they could have drafted Corey Dillon who was taken 20 picks later (#43), and was a VERY good player. Not bad enough? Adam Meadows (a fine RT for many years) was drafted with pick #48. The Bills truly were in need of a player like this.

 

In 2003, in one of the all time dumb draft decisions (however not THE dumbest) the Bills ever made, they selected Willis MaGahee at #23.  His injury in college was just so bad that he missed 1 1/4 seasons of football before he played a single down for the Bills. I know that you are against first round guards and I get it, but I was watching that draft screaming for the Bills to draft Eric Steinbach, who went to the Bengals with the first pick of round two. It turned out that Steinbach was an excellent guard and also filled in at LT and wasn't so bad. 

 

Ironically, much of what fans are saying now is the same thing we heard way back when, such as "MaGahee is good!" Yes, he was good. Smith might have been OK too but this was an improper way to build a football team, even back then. Now we have McDermott (notice I didn't say Beane) chasing first round corners and undersized DTs. I hope that it stops. It HAS to!!! We need to protect who I consider to be the most talented QB in football, bar none. Josh can and will win us a Super Bowl if they bring him weapons and protect him. It's just that simple imo.

 

End of rant. 🙂🏈🙂

 

 

I was not against Guards in round 1 back when McGahee was selected because the game was different.    Steinbach really stood out then, he was a focal point of Bills fans that offseason.  But that was still an era of feature back football and CB and WR weren't quite at the level of QB/LT/PassRusher in the hierarchy of positions yet like they became after the 2010 changes.  We knew RB's in round 1 were bad business though.    Go back a little further..........to 1995.........and the only thing wrong with selecting Ruben Brown in round 1 was that they didn't go back for MORE OL.    I wanted G Brian DeMarco to fall to them in round 2........he did not........but there were a lot of good OL in that class and the Bills shocked everyone when they went with weak armed stiff Todd Collins in round 2 and they neglected to double dip on the OL even though bad blocking ended their season.

[Bill from NYC]

Yes, more OL was the answer. I must however admit that other than Collins, 1995 was one of their better drafts. They had some good picks in addition to Brown.

 

In round 3 they drafted Marlon Kerner and Damien Covington. Their careers were destroyed by injuries. I sincerely believe that Covington would have been as good as London Fletcher. He had potential to be great!

In round 4 they took Ken Irvin who was definitely worth a 4th.

In round 5 they took John Holocek, a very nice LB. Iirc he had an injury history when we drafted him but he was very good until his body gave way. I remember a game saving tackle he made against NE on the last play of a game.

In round 7 they selected Darrick Holmes, who was talented and really a fun player to watch. The man ran as if his life was at stake, or hell was chasing him. Seriously, do you recall how frantic he looked? I don't remember what happened to him. 

 

Time flies, no?

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Yes, more OL was the answer. I must however admit that other than Collins, 1995 was one of their better drafts. They had some good picks in addition to Brown.

 

In round 3 they drafted Marlon Kerner and Damien Covington. Their careers were destroyed by injuries. I sincerely believe that Covington would have been as good as London Fletcher. He had potential to be great!

In round 4 they took Ken Irvin who was definitely worth a 4th.

In round 5 they took John Holocek, a very nice LB. Iirc he had an injury history when we drafted him but he was very good until his body gave way. I remember a game saving tackle he made against NE on the last play of a game.

In round 7 they selected Darrick Holmes, who was talented and really a fun player to watch. The man ran as if his life was at stake, or hell was chasing him. Seriously, do you recall how frantic he looked? I don't remember what happened to him. 

 

Time flies, no?

 

 

 

 

Yeah Darick Holmes was very much like Pacheco......speed and power.......not much subtle about his game.

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

Yes, more OL was the answer. I must however admit that other than Collins, 1995 was one of their better drafts. They had some good picks in addition to Brown.

 

In round 3 they drafted Marlon Kerner and Damien Covington. Their careers were destroyed by injuries. I sincerely believe that Covington would have been as good as London Fletcher. He had potential to be great!

In round 4 they took Ken Irvin who was definitely worth a 4th.

In round 5 they took John Holocek, a very nice LB. Iirc he had an injury history when we drafted him but he was very good until his body gave way. I remember a game saving tackle he made against NE on the last play of a game.

In round 7 they selected Darrick Holmes, who was talented and really a fun player to watch. The man ran as if his life was at stake, or hell was chasing him. Seriously, do you recall how frantic he looked? I don't remember what happened to him. 

 

Time flies, no?

 

 

Re: Todd Collins -- unfathomably, he had a 16-year career and the final game he played in was the January 2011 NFC championship game for the Bears (replacing an injured Jay Cutler). 

[T master]

On 2/24/2023 at 2:52 PM, billsbackto81 said:

He'd instantly give this team credibility in the run game. No more sweating on 3rd and 2. Plus with our teams passing ability he wouldn't have to be the 300 carry bell cow he's been in Tenn. 

 

So a veteran RB with how many years of playing in the NFL or a RB like the kid out of Texas - Robinson if he is in fact that generational talent as they are all saying he is that you could get for 4 to 5 years on a much cheaper contract to do the same thing or better for less cash due to the cap .

 

I really like Henry but i'm thinking it would be smarter to go for the rookie for the long term .

[Buffalo Barbarian]

On 2/24/2023 at 3:29 PM, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

 

lets do this !!

 

 

[billsbackto81]

3 hours ago, T master said:

 

So a veteran RB with how many years of playing in the NFL or a RB like the kid out of Texas - Robinson if he is in fact that generational talent as they are all saying he is that you could get for 4 to 5 years on a much cheaper contract to do the same thing or better for less cash due to the cap .

 

I really like Henry but i'm thinking it would be smarter to go for the rookie for the long term .

2 questions.

 

1. Do you really think he'll be there at 27? I'm gonna say NOPE... 

 

2. Do you really think Beane will trade up in the 1st round for a RB with all the other offensive needs on this team? I'm gonna say NOPE...

Edited March 1, 2023 by billsbackto81

[T master]

15 hours ago, billsbackto81 said:

2 questions.

 

1. Do you really think he'll be there at 27? I'm gonna say NOPE... 

 

2. Do you really think Beane will trade up in the 1st round for a RB with all the other offensive needs on this team? I'm gonna say NOPE...

 

I'm no sure he will be there at 27 but given what the "Experts Say" about running backs being a dime a dozen which in this case i do not believe he may have a chance at slipping that far down the line to us & if he does i hope Beane & company saw what the Jets rookie added to their offense last year while healthy .

 

Beans does pay attention to other teams especially in our division & i think if the Jets would have had Breece Hall when the Bills played them the second time that it very easily could have been another lose & if Robinson is this generational talent that every one is talking about i think given the irrelevance of RB's that the Bills have chosen previously this guy could be a huge piece of the puzzle to making this offense almost unstoppable .

 

If D coordinators had to plan for Josh Allen & a back with the skills of someone like Saquan Barkley they would definitely lose sleep trying to find a way to possibly stop either or . 

 

Every SB Champion has had a really good runner when they needed it look at what the Chiefs have in Pacheco which i'll bet Mahomes loves knowing when he gives him the ball that he is a play maker & that is one thing the Bills can not count on to this point but if they had Robinson & Cook the possibilities could be huge .

 

And really good backs such as Robinson have this thing about making something happen when there looks to be nothing there to get sure you may stop them once or twice but he will get his at some point & that could be big for the Bills ground game & be the piece that puts them over the Kansas city hump .

[HappyDays]

https://twitter.com/NFLonCBS/status/1632783763938607107?t=dnY7GbbkU_UjV42yyTCTTA&s=19

 

https://twitter.com/MikeSilver/status/1632768617564749831?t=5bTXCSfw8kCQadzP-tX3NA&s=19