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The line moved significantly in the last hour or two.


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8 minutes ago, ControllerOfPlanetX said:


..it must be a stress-free job…

Lol It is an extremely tough profession to make it in

 

Sharps have to be mathematicians, Efficient in analytics, And watch an extreme amount of The sport they bet…

 

They also need to have the patience To know when not to bet And wait for the right line to play

 

It’s pretty wise to always follow the sharps

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3 hours ago, Simon said:

 

I preached this for all of my life.

 

Then this study came out about a month ago

 

 

 

It's a pretty cool study, actually, but I have questions - starting with, how realistic and under what circumstances is an actual drop of 5 degrees C at the point where they were sampling the cells?  It's kind of analogous to all those people paying extra money for "alkaline water" when your stomach is very acid and has a bunch of cells lining it whose job in life is to keep it that way.  Your nasal passages are lined with blood vessels whose job in life is to keep the air going into your lungs nice and warm.

 

For that reason, I put a little more weight in the studies of actual people where they got them wet, cold, etc.  I wouldn't change what you preach, just yet.

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5 hours ago, teef said:

For someone that doesn’t gamble at all, what do you think this signifies?

Burrows' cold got bad and they had to call up a quarterback from the practice squad😄 

 

 

jk

 

 

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6 hours ago, Simon said:

 

I would suggest it means that Americans are a very generous lot and love to provide regular donations to unsubsidized gambling entities by blindly betting on events in which they have no control over the outcome.

you defined gambling, but you didn't answer his question😋

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6 hours ago, BillyBilliams said:

All week, the Bills were at -1.5 and 60% of the bets have been going to Cincinnati.  Despite all this, the line moved to -2 1 hour ago and now it’s at -2.5.  Does Vegas know something we don’t know and are waiting to cash in on the people taking the Bengals?

Vegas doesn’t bet.  It takes bets.  Vegas matches its book and cares not how you bet.  If the line’s moving as you report, it’s because bettors are selecting the Bills.

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Lines that move between +2.5 through the 0 out to -2.5 are pretty inconsequential moves because it doesn’t touch the biggest key number in the sport of 3 on either side. There’s not a big chance for a middle position from professionals. There was some money that came in on Buffalo from professional groups but not a ton. 

9 hours ago, Neo said:

Vegas doesn’t bet.  It takes bets.  Vegas matches its book and cares not how you bet.  If the line’s moving as you report, it’s because bettors are selecting the Bills.

Books absolutely do not do this. They don’t balance their books, and they’ll take massive stands on numbers because if they simply moved their numbers based on just total money on a side they’d get smoked by professionals who would dummy line moves constantly. 

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11 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Lol It is an extremely tough profession to make it in

 

Sharps have to be mathematicians, Efficient in analytics, And watch an extreme amount of The sport they bet…

 

They also need to have the patience To know when not to bet And wait for the right line to play

 

It’s pretty wise to always follow the sharps


This hasn’t been true this year, because the NFL has been seeing more variance this year than any year in memory. Also if you don’t directly interact with actual big money players you’re relying on media sponsored by the books to tell you where the “sharp” positions are. Not to mention how important it is to know when sharp money comes in, because if it’s early in the week around a key number it could be respected money simply grabbing a number or even trying to head fake the books into moving to the other side of a key number right before limits increase on Thursday. 

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