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How valuable is Hyde really?


Einstein

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7 minutes ago, Azucho98 said:

I believe our secondary is so well coached, and the backups so ready to play, they could plug any NFL player in there and not drop off too much.   Two rookies started at corner and backups at both safety spots and those guys all held their own for the most part. 

 

If that’s the case, then how much do you value Hyde over a replacement?

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1 minute ago, WotAGuy said:

White, Poyer and Hyde were all over Hopkins and he STILL caught that Hail Mary pass in AZ.  Get rid of all them bums. 

 

In the last few years, we've lost Edmunds, Milano, Settle, White, Poyer, Hyde, Bedford and Oliver due to injuries.

Our defense didn't take much of a step back at all....therefore none listed are very valuable.  

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1 minute ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

The essence of group-think is that groups create psychological pressure on individuals to conform to the views of leaders and other members. Famous examples of group-think include the decision of the US to invade Cuba in 1961 and Coca-Cola's decision to launch “New Coke” in 1985.

 

new-coke.jpg

 

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ4ptouYknbh63Yv5-WwDU

 

albert-einstein-quotes-jpg.jpg

 

Yes.


And their answers are the right answers.

 

All other answers should be disregarded and the discussion closed.

 

Why keep talking if you already got an “answer” from those that matter?

 

etc

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4 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

You sure nailed it.  Deep down we all agree with everything you have said but we are too afraid to because of group think..

I concede...Allen Robinson is absolutely a top 10 WR and Jeffrey Simmons is a better defensive player than Micah Parsons.  

And Edmunds is trash but we should extend him at all costs.

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Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Is this something new?  I haven't seen these posts.

Its the group think.  We all agree that edmunds suck but we don't understand his role in this defense and we want to extend him for top 5 LB money this offseason.  

 

Do you....disagree!?

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I understand the vitriol coming out in this thread, however I think it's relevant in a more broad sense. 

 

These are the types of questions that makes GMs GMs! It's a constant cost/benefit question, can't keep everyone, if you can can keep good performance out of a group with someone cheaper, and thus bring up a weaker group,  you have to consider it.

 

I love Hyde, I feel like I'm in the minority that leans towards him over Poyer.

However, say you can move on from one of the two, in exchange for better guard play.... do you do it? How much better does it buy you from guard position?

 

These are all offseason questions and things Beane will be constantly analyzing.

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57 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

At the expense of whom?  Oliver? Edmunds? Poyer? Morse? Paying a 32 year safety coming off neck surgery $10.8M is difficult.  Hamlin costs less than $1M and is under contract through 2024.

That $3.8M wont make up all the money you need for Oliver and Edmunds but it helps.  Like it or not these are the hard decisions Beane is going to have to make now that Allen's contract balloons.  There are several restructures that can be done to open up cap space but there is a limit to the number of moves that can be made.  

Going off OvertheCap.com (which is not gospel but does provide a sensible baseline IMO) the figured cap relief from potential restructures next year are as follows:

 

White: $5,880,000

Allen: $21,536,000

Diggs: $5,596,000

Morse: $3,287,500

Dawkins: $6,393,750

HYDE: $4,301,250

Miller: $10,864,000

Milano: $6,315,000

 

Grand Total: $64,173,500

 

Granted they will not do all of those restructures. But they have plenty of wiggle room to play with. Notice also that a restructure (or an extension for that matter) with Hyde would actually save a bit more than a trade or cut. Add into that the fact that the salary cap will jump again next year...what's the problem?

 

You also mention Poyer by name as an "at who's expense" example. Well he will be 32 next year, has a growing list of injuries (including a collapsed lung this year) and would cost zero dead money to part ways with next season as he's not under contract. That seems like the obvious move if someone has to be left out. Why give him a contract if, like you said Hamlin costs less than $1 million. And yes Hamiln can play both spots back there.

 

 

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Yes.


And their answers are the right answers.

 

All other answers should be disregarded and the discussion closed.

 

Why keep talking if you already got an “answer” from those that matter?

 

etc

 

 

There are two types of people who go on and on about groupthink.

 

The first group are those who have dumb arguments and refuse to understand that that's the reason everyone disagrees with them.

 

And that's your group.

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12 hours ago, Einstein said:

Since Hyde has been out, our defense has given up 16 points per game. More impressively, they gave up only 20 to the high powered Chiefs.

 

🥵 I think you can make the argument that the Bills would have beaten the Dolphins with Hyde playing - that 3rd and 22(?) pass to Hill likely doesn’t happen. But then again, it may not have happened with Poyer playing. They were both out that game.

 

👉  I am certainly not saying we are better without Hyde… but I am asking, how much worse are we really? And does extending (or going into a contract year at $11M cap hit) worth not having a slight drop in quality?

 

Could we trade him for a draft asset?

 

💰 We have a potential “out” with his contact this off-season. It would save us about $4 million in cap space ($11M cap savings minus $7M in dead cap).

 

Hamlin & Johnson combined account for 1/5th of Hyde’s cap hit next year.

 

Poyer is 115 days younger than Hyde. If we had to pick one safety to keep, I think I may lean toward Poyer over Hyde.


If we want to play the with/without Hyde game, we gave up an average of 8.5 ppg  and 215 ypg with Hyde, 16 ppg and 315 ypg without.  So we would have to say he's worth 100 ypg and 7.5 ppg.

 

Since we lost a game by 2 points and won 2 games by 3 and 4 points (meaning they could easily have swung the other way), that sounds valuable even framed in those "let's look at team stats and try to deduce the value of one player" terms

 

Moreover, the "16 PPG" given up stat is misleading.  We have given up 21, 20, 3 and 20 points.  So the average is skewed by one low scoring game against a rookie QB.  Where he moved the ball well, passing for 310 yds, 65% completions - but couldn't seal the deal and get in the EZ. 

 

-------------

 

We run a scheme that's DB friendly. we have a better DL this season (which is also DB friendly) and we have 1 promising backup safety.  In previous seasons, when either Hyde OR Poyer were missing, we never particularly noticed.  But when the injury bug inevitably bites, and we miss both, that may spell trouble.  

 

But the measure of what the all-pro level, experienced players bring may not show up until the playoffs.  We were playing well on D without Tre White with Dane Jackson filling in capably but we still lost some of the capabilities Tre brings, does anyone think he might not have made a difference in the playoffs vs. KC?  (I'm sure someone does, but I don't). 

 

Poyer is unsigned for next season and pretty much has made it clear he wants a longer contract that will carry him through retirement and top-10, maybe top-5 safety pay.    I'd like to have him back, but not sure Beane can swing that.

 

The relatively minor cap savings from cutting Hyde (due to his restructure which amortized restructure payments thru 2026 with "dummy years" would not be worth going into the draft with Hamlin and Johnson pencilled in as our starting safeties.  Big drop-off there IMO.

 

--------------

 

I don't think there's much trade market for a 32 yr old DB coming off neck surgery at $7.2M.  He hopes to come back - so did Aaron Williams - but there's a real chance he won't be medically cleared (in which case we may be on the hook for his full salary).  There's also the same perception that he plays in a "whole is greater than the sum of the parts" DB-friendly scheme.

 

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23 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

A 30 point beatdown of the Mac Joneses is an "instant classic"?

 

lol

It was for a lot of us. After watching 20 years of frustration being unleashed and dealt out in the playoffs in front of the NFL world it was.

 

All I could think of after the game was Ralphie beating the heck out of Farkus (his bully) in Christmas Story.

I have a lot of non-Bills fans who contacted me after that game and they almost enjoyed seeing the Pats get destroyed as much as we did.

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