Bills headline Barnwells "Teams most likely to improve in 2022".

[Stank_Nasty]

Good read on the flukey nature of a handful of last years losses for the squad and how a regression back towards the mean should naturally mean a better outcome. Interesting numbers and what i found to be a solid offseason read. A little food for thought i guess....

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/34435650/predicting-nfl-teams-most-likely-improve-2022-numbers-history-show-bills-broncos-jaguars-lions-ravens-win-more-games

 

This is one of my favorite weeks every year, as I'm starting my annual look into the NFL teams most likely to improve or decline during the upcoming season. It's time to take a closer look into what happened a year ago and use history to help project the most surprising teams in 2022.

 

Heading into last season, despite their 1-5-1 record in games decided by seven points or fewer, the Bengals narrowly missed out on the list of teams most likely to improve. Given that this column identified the 2017 Eagles and 2019 49ers as major improvers before they made their own runs to the Super Bowl, not including the Bengals was disappointing.

The good news is the five teams mentioned in last year's column all improved, gaining an average of 2.9 wins per 17 games on their 2020 records. (The move from 16 to 17 games means that many of the stats mentioned in this column are a little more torturous to discuss than they were before.) The 49ers and Eagles both went from last place to the playoffs, while the Broncos, Falcons and Jaguars each made smaller strides.

 

In all, 20 of the 25 teams mentioned in this piece over the past five seasons have improved the following season, rising by an average of 3.1 wins per 17 games. I'll hit my five favorites for 2022 below, including teams at the top and bottom of the league. I'll even include an honorable mention for a team that undoubtedly would have been included in this list if it had merely avoided a foolish mistake this offseason. On Wednesday, I'll hit the five teams most likely to decline.

 

As is the case every year, this list relies on statistical measures of performance that have a track record of predicting improvement or decline in the following season(s). Let's start with a team with Super Bowl aspirations:

 

Buffalo Bills (11-6)

The Bills are a perfect example of how luck and small sample events can play a dramatic role on a team's record from year to year. Here's where they ranked in a number of key categories between 2020 and 2021. I won't include their win-loss record, but using the data below, would you guess they had a better record last season or in 2020?

2021 Bills Vs. 2020 Bills

STAT 2020 2021

DVOA 4 2

FPI 6 2

SRS 5 2

Point Differential 5 1

Points For 2 3

Points Against 16 1

Strength of Schedule (by DVOA) 22 32

Turnover Margin 10 7

 

The 2020 Bills went 13-3. The 2021 Bills, who were markedly better on a play-by-play and drive-by-drive basis across the board while playing an easier schedule, lost three more games. What changed is how they performed in games decided by seven points or fewer. The 2020 Bills went 4-1 in those close games, which helped get them onto last year's list as one of the teams most likely to decline.

 

The 2021 Bills went 0-5 in those same games. Their performance in one-score games didn't regress to the mean; it regressed all the way past the mean. It's almost impossible to be as good as they were in 2021 without winning the close ones. Since 1989, only one other team posted a winning record while failing to win a single game by seven points or fewer, when the Super Bowl-winning Rams went 0-3 in those contests in 1999. (They proceeded to win the NFC Championship Game and Super Bowl by a combined 12 points.)

 

Buffalo, of course, famously did not win a close game in the postseason. After blowing out the Patriots in the wild-card round, it lost an instant classic to the Chiefs despite taking back the lead twice inside the final two minutes. Josh Allen & Co. didn't get a chance to touch the ball in overtime, leading to complaints their season came down to a coin flip.

 

If the Bills had been able to pull out the closest of those five one-score games during the regular season, they might not have needed overtime at all. They were forced to play in Kansas City in the divisional round because they lost from a dominant position against Tennessee. Trailing 34-31 with 22 seconds to go, they sent Allen out on a fourth-and-1 quarterback sneak to try to win the game from the 3-yard line, only for Allen to be stopped by Jeffery Simmons. Allen otherwise has gone 13-of-14 on fourth-and-1 situations, with an aborted snap against the Jets as the only other blemish on his record. This was bad timing (and a great play by Simmons) as opposed to something meaningful about Allen being unable to perform in important moments, as we saw with his incredible play against the Chiefs in the fourth quarter during the postseason.

 

If we're looking for other reasons the Bills might post a better record in 2022, an improved season from Allen is high on the list. He looked like the best player on the field during his two near-perfect postseason performances, but those most recent memories mask what had been a frustrating season.

 

Allen continued to be an impactful runner, but after an incredible breakout season in 2020, his completion percentage, yards per attempt, interception rate and passer rating were all at or below league average last regular season. Weather was a concern at times, most memorably in the whipping winds against the Patriots in November, but Allen averaged 5.6 yards per attempt and threw two picks in a loss at lowly Jacksonville. He threw for 120 yards and three picks against the Falcons in a game in which Matt Ryan, playing against the league's best defense, averaged 8.6 yards per attempt. Allen won't be as dominant as he was during that postseason run, but he'll be better than the guy we saw struggle at times during the regular season.

 

The Bills also might be able to count on a step forward from their special teams, which slipped from fourth in the league in DVOA in 2020 to 19th a year ago. Matt Haack ranked as the worst punter in the league by Puntalytics's metrics. A blocked punt in the opener cost the Bills in a narrow loss to the Steelers, and they ranked 31st in net yards gained per punt. They responded by using a draft pick on "Punt God" Matt Araiza, who boomed a kick 82 yards for a touchback during his first preseason appearance. Haack was released on Monday, which means this is Araiza's job and Buffalo should be better punting in 2022.

 

When I talk about punter as a likely place to improve, you know the Bills don't have many problems on their roster. This is an organization with an excellent recent track record of drafting and developing young talent. It wouldn't be a surprise if we saw wide receiver Gabriel Davis and offensive linemen Ryan Bates and Spencer Brown take leaps forward in their first full seasons as starters.

 

And while the Bills were forced to shed veterans for cap purposes this offseason, I'm not sure they're going to actually be much worse. Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Star Lotulelei and Daryl Williams are all still free agents. Mario Addison and Jerry Hughes signed modest deals with the Texans. Jon Feliciano signed a one-year deal with the Giants. Those players played meaningful roles over the past couple of seasons when healthy, but the most prominent player the Bills lost is cornerback Levi Wallace.

 

They used those savings to import guard Rodger Saffold and future Hall of Fame edge rusher Von Miller, the latter of whom was dominant during the postseason. Miller posted an absurd 41.5% pass rush win rate (PRWR) during the Rams' march to the Super Bowl, racking up 4.5 sacks and forcing 15 incomplete passes. The Bills might not love the Miller deal in a year or two, but he still has enough in the tank to be a difference-maker in 2022.

 

I'm more concerned about the departure of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who helped mold Allen from a meme into a superstar. The schedule will be tougher, with the Bills projected to face the league's 11th-toughest slate, per the Football Outsiders Almanac. It will be tough to ask the defense to improve beyond its first-place ranking in both points allowed and DVOA. I'm not sure Buffalo actually will play better on a snap-by-snap basis than it did in 2021. I just think it will get better results

[hondo in seattle]

13 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

 

 

Allen continued to be an impactful runner, but after an incredible breakout season in 2020, his completion percentage, yards per attempt, interception rate and passer rating were all at or below league average last regular season. Weather was a concern at times, most memorably in the whipping winds against the Patriots in November, but Allen averaged 5.6 yards per attempt and threw two picks in a loss at lowly Jacksonville. He threw for 120 yards and three picks against the Falcons in a game in which Matt Ryan, playing against the league's best defense, averaged 8.6 yards per attempt. Allen won't be as dominant as he was during that postseason run, but he'll be better than the guy we saw struggle at times during the regular season.

 

 

 

Good summary but too comprehensive and long.   Instead of trying to cover a myriad things already covered in other threads, maybe you should have limited yourself to the W-L record in close games and the idea of regression to the mean.

 

As for Allen, you follow the regression-to-the-mean theme again and I think it may be misapplied a bit here.  Allen tended to perform his best when the OL gave him time.  While he made some amazing plays when the OL broke down, some of his worst games statistically occurred when he was running for his life.  Allen's talent is certain.  His production will be determined by a lot of variables to include Dorsey's scheming & playcalling and - maybe even more importantly - the performance of this year's offensive line.  If the OL is as improved as we all hope it is, Allen will have his best year yet.  

[BruceVilanch]

13 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Good summary but too comprehensive and long.   Instead of trying to cover a myriad things already covered in other threads, maybe you should have limited yourself to the W-L record in close games and the idea of regression to the mean.

 

As for Allen, you follow the regression-to-the-mean theme again and I think it may be misapplied a bit here.  Allen tended to perform his best when the OL gave him time.  While he made some amazing plays when the OL broke down, some of his worst games statistically occurred when he was running for his life.  Allen's talent is certain.  His production will be determined by a lot of variables to include Dorsey's scheming & playcalling and - maybe even more importantly - the performance of this year's offensive line.  If the OL is as improved as we all hope it is, Allen will have his best year yet.  

Good response, but too comprehensive and long.

[BuffaloRebound]

Long story short, our Left Tackle was terrible until the end of the season due to a bad case of covid and one of our best players decided being the poster-boy for the anti-vax movement was more important than his day job.  

[mushypeaches]

22 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Good summary but too comprehensive and long.   Instead of trying to cover a myriad things already covered in other threads, maybe you should have limited yourself to the W-L record in close games and the idea of regression to the mean.

 

As for Allen, you follow the regression-to-the-mean theme again and I think it may be misapplied a bit here.  Allen tended to perform his best when the OL gave him time.  While he made some amazing plays when the OL broke down, some of his worst games statistically occurred when he was running for his life.  Allen's talent is certain.  His production will be determined by a lot of variables to include Dorsey's scheming & playcalling and - maybe even more importantly - the performance of this year's offensive line.  If the OL is as improved as we all hope it is, Allen will have his best year yet.  

 

You do realize that the OP was just copying and pasting the content from the original Bill Barnwell ESPN article.

 

Barnwell has been writing these kinds of pre-season articles for several years.  He takes a defined statistical historical approach towards predicting rising & falling teams for the upcoming season.  It's not meant to be comprehensive of all the variables, but as math & stats folks do, he's trying to incorporate those that he believes to be most significant or contributing to potential big changes in W-L record.

 

It's not for everyone, but I think it nicely rounds out all the things that fans are looking for from national publications & sites

 

[Stank_Nasty]

27 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Good summary but too comprehensive and long.   Instead of trying to cover a myriad things already covered in other threads, maybe you should have limited yourself to the W-L record in close games and the idea of regression to the mean.

 

As for Allen, you follow the regression-to-the-mean theme again and I think it may be misapplied a bit here.  Allen tended to perform his best when the OL gave him time.  While he made some amazing plays when the OL broke down, some of his worst games statistically occurred when he was running for his life.  Allen's talent is certain.  His production will be determined by a lot of variables to include Dorsey's scheming & playcalling and - maybe even more importantly - the performance of this year's offensive line.  If the OL is as improved as we all hope it is, Allen will have his best year yet.  

bro, its an article. i copy and pasted the bills section. literally supplied the link and said who wrote it in the title...... but okay... i guess...

Edited August 23, 2022 by Stank_Nasty

[Stank_Nasty]

5 minutes ago, mushypeaches said:

 

You do realize that the OP was just copying and pasting the content from the original Bill Barnwell ESPN article.

 

Barnwell has been writing these kinds of pre-season articles for several years.  He takes a defined statistical historical approach towards predicting rising & falling teams for the upcoming season.  It's not meant to be comprehensive of all the variables, but as math & stats folks do, he's trying to incorporate those that he believes to be most significant or contributing to potential big changes in W-L record.

 

It's not for everyone, but I think it nicely rounds out all the things that fans are looking for from national publications & sites

 

thank you. i thought i made that pretty friggin obvious

Edited August 23, 2022 by Stank_Nasty

[ToGoGo]

50 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Good read on the flukey nature of a handful of last years losses for the squad and how a regression back towards the mean should naturally mean a better outcome. Interesting numbers and what i found to be a solid offseason read. A little food for thought i guess....

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/34435650/predicting-nfl-teams-most-likely-improve-2022-numbers-history-show-bills-broncos-jaguars-lions-ravens-win-more-games

 

This is one of my favorite weeks every year, as I'm starting my annual look into the NFL teams most likely to improve or decline during the upcoming season. It's time to take a closer look into what happened a year ago and use history to help project the most surprising teams in 2022.

 

Heading into last season, despite their 1-5-1 record in games decided by seven points or fewer, the Bengals narrowly missed out on the list of teams most likely to improve. Given that this column identified the 2017 Eagles and 2019 49ers as major improvers before they made their own runs to the Super Bowl, not including the Bengals was disappointing.

The good news is the five teams mentioned in last year's column all improved, gaining an average of 2.9 wins per 17 games on their 2020 records. (The move from 16 to 17 games means that many of the stats mentioned in this column are a little more torturous to discuss than they were before.) The 49ers and Eagles both went from last place to the playoffs, while the Broncos, Falcons and Jaguars each made smaller strides.

 

In all, 20 of the 25 teams mentioned in this piece over the past five seasons have improved the following season, rising by an average of 3.1 wins per 17 games. I'll hit my five favorites for 2022 below, including teams at the top and bottom of the league. I'll even include an honorable mention for a team that undoubtedly would have been included in this list if it had merely avoided a foolish mistake this offseason. On Wednesday, I'll hit the five teams most likely to decline.

 

As is the case every year, this list relies on statistical measures of performance that have a track record of predicting improvement or decline in the following season(s). Let's start with a team with Super Bowl aspirations:

 

Buffalo Bills (11-6)

The Bills are a perfect example of how luck and small sample events can play a dramatic role on a team's record from year to year. Here's where they ranked in a number of key categories between 2020 and 2021. I won't include their win-loss record, but using the data below, would you guess they had a better record last season or in 2020?

2021 Bills Vs. 2020 Bills

STAT 2020 2021

DVOA 4 2

FPI 6 2

SRS 5 2

Point Differential 5 1

Points For 2 3

Points Against 16 1

Strength of Schedule (by DVOA) 22 32

Turnover Margin 10 7

 

The 2020 Bills went 13-3. The 2021 Bills, who were markedly better on a play-by-play and drive-by-drive basis across the board while playing an easier schedule, lost three more games. What changed is how they performed in games decided by seven points or fewer. The 2020 Bills went 4-1 in those close games, which helped get them onto last year's list as one of the teams most likely to decline.

 

The 2021 Bills went 0-5 in those same games. Their performance in one-score games didn't regress to the mean; it regressed all the way past the mean. It's almost impossible to be as good as they were in 2021 without winning the close ones. Since 1989, only one other team posted a winning record while failing to win a single game by seven points or fewer, when the Super Bowl-winning Rams went 0-3 in those contests in 1999. (They proceeded to win the NFC Championship Game and Super Bowl by a combined 12 points.)

 

Buffalo, of course, famously did not win a close game in the postseason. After blowing out the Patriots in the wild-card round, it lost an instant classic to the Chiefs despite taking back the lead twice inside the final two minutes. Josh Allen & Co. didn't get a chance to touch the ball in overtime, leading to complaints their season came down to a coin flip.

 

If the Bills had been able to pull out the closest of those five one-score games during the regular season, they might not have needed overtime at all. They were forced to play in Kansas City in the divisional round because they lost from a dominant position against Tennessee. Trailing 34-31 with 22 seconds to go, they sent Allen out on a fourth-and-1 quarterback sneak to try to win the game from the 3-yard line, only for Allen to be stopped by Jeffery Simmons. Allen otherwise has gone 13-of-14 on fourth-and-1 situations, with an aborted snap against the Jets as the only other blemish on his record. This was bad timing (and a great play by Simmons) as opposed to something meaningful about Allen being unable to perform in important moments, as we saw with his incredible play against the Chiefs in the fourth quarter during the postseason.

 

If we're looking for other reasons the Bills might post a better record in 2022, an improved season from Allen is high on the list. He looked like the best player on the field during his two near-perfect postseason performances, but those most recent memories mask what had been a frustrating season.

 

Allen continued to be an impactful runner, but after an incredible breakout season in 2020, his completion percentage, yards per attempt, interception rate and passer rating were all at or below league average last regular season. Weather was a concern at times, most memorably in the whipping winds against the Patriots in November, but Allen averaged 5.6 yards per attempt and threw two picks in a loss at lowly Jacksonville. He threw for 120 yards and three picks against the Falcons in a game in which Matt Ryan, playing against the league's best defense, averaged 8.6 yards per attempt. Allen won't be as dominant as he was during that postseason run, but he'll be better than the guy we saw struggle at times during the regular season.

 

The Bills also might be able to count on a step forward from their special teams, which slipped from fourth in the league in DVOA in 2020 to 19th a year ago. Matt Haack ranked as the worst punter in the league by Puntalytics's metrics. A blocked punt in the opener cost the Bills in a narrow loss to the Steelers, and they ranked 31st in net yards gained per punt. They responded by using a draft pick on "Punt God" Matt Araiza, who boomed a kick 82 yards for a touchback during his first preseason appearance. Haack was released on Monday, which means this is Araiza's job and Buffalo should be better punting in 2022.

 

When I talk about punter as a likely place to improve, you know the Bills don't have many problems on their roster. This is an organization with an excellent recent track record of drafting and developing young talent. It wouldn't be a surprise if we saw wide receiver Gabriel Davis and offensive linemen Ryan Bates and Spencer Brown take leaps forward in their first full seasons as starters.

 

And while the Bills were forced to shed veterans for cap purposes this offseason, I'm not sure they're going to actually be much worse. Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Star Lotulelei and Daryl Williams are all still free agents. Mario Addison and Jerry Hughes signed modest deals with the Texans. Jon Feliciano signed a one-year deal with the Giants. Those players played meaningful roles over the past couple of seasons when healthy, but the most prominent player the Bills lost is cornerback Levi Wallace.

 

They used those savings to import guard Rodger Saffold and future Hall of Fame edge rusher Von Miller, the latter of whom was dominant during the postseason. Miller posted an absurd 41.5% pass rush win rate (PRWR) during the Rams' march to the Super Bowl, racking up 4.5 sacks and forcing 15 incomplete passes. The Bills might not love the Miller deal in a year or two, but he still has enough in the tank to be a difference-maker in 2022.

 

I'm more concerned about the departure of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who helped mold Allen from a meme into a superstar. The schedule will be tougher, with the Bills projected to face the league's 11th-toughest slate, per the Football Outsiders Almanac. It will be tough to ask the defense to improve beyond its first-place ranking in both points allowed and DVOA. I'm not sure Buffalo actually will play better on a snap-by-snap basis than it did in 2021. I just think it will get better results

 

Reads like a smart guy who watched 2 Bills games last year, looks at a lot of stats, doesn't follow the team at all, but wants everyone to know that he's aware of who Ryan Bates and Spencer Brown are! Must sound very impressive to non-Bills fans. 

 

Nothing about the D-line improving? Nothing about Allen slipping on the 4th and 1 against the Titans? 

 

I stick by my Barnwell opinion. He's a smug hipster who writes well, sounds smart, but never sees the forest for the trees (or watches games). God forbid he writes a complimentary article about Allen without jamming the word "Daboll" in there somewhere as the real hero. 

[Stank_Nasty]

2 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

 

Reads like a smart guy who watched 2 Bills games last year, looks at a lot of stats, doesn't follow the team at all, but wants everyone to know that he's aware of who Ryan Bates and Spencer Brown are! Must sound very impressive to non-Bills fans. 

 

Nothing about the D-line improving? Nothing about Allen slipping on the 4th and 1 against the Titans? 

 

I stick by my Barnwell opinion. He's a smug hipster who writes well, sounds smart, but never sees the forest for the trees (or watches games). God forbid he writes a complimentary article about Allen without jamming the word "Daboll" in there somewhere as the real hero. 

he literally references the bills adding miller to the line and the talks about the slip. Its basically like you didnt read it at all.... but thanks for the input.... i guess.

 

"If the Bills had been able to pull out the closest of those five one-score games during the regular season, they might not have needed overtime at all. They were forced to play in Kansas City in the divisional round because they lost from a dominant position against Tennessee. Trailing 34-31 with 22 seconds to go, they sent Allen out on a fourth-and-1 quarterback sneak to try to win the game from the 3-yard line, only for Allen to be stopped by Jeffery Simmons. Allen otherwise has gone 13-of-14 on fourth-and-1 situations, with an aborted snap against the Jets as the only other blemish on his record. This was bad timing (and a great play by Simmons) as opposed to something meaningful about Allen being unable to perform in important moments, as we saw with his incredible play against the Chiefs in the fourth quarter during the postseason."

 

Edited August 23, 2022 by Stank_Nasty

[ToGoGo]

Just now, Stank_Nasty said:

he literally references the bills adding miller to the line and the talks about the slip.... so uh, ya....

 

He mentions the 4th and 1. Nothing about the slip. To mention the slip would mention questioning Daboll's play call. That's blasphemous. 

 

He mentions Miller, but nothing about the overall improvements to the line.

 

 

[Stank_Nasty]

7 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

 

He mentions the 4th and 1. Nothing about the slip. To mention the slip would mention questioning Daboll's play call. That's blasphemous. 

 

He mentions Miller, but nothing about the overall improvements to the line.

 

 

do you go through other portions of your life just trying to look for slights that arent there? hopefully its just with the bills. he goes on to say its a flukey play and no reflection of Allens play... why bother questioning the playcall? allen was 13 of 14 in that situation up to that point. 

 

this is actually a complementary piece. your thought process on this is really odd.

Edited August 23, 2022 by Stank_Nasty

[Motorin']

10 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

bro, its an article. i copy and pasted the bills section. literally supplied the link and said who wrote it in the title...... but okay... i guess...

 

Could you try to be more concise with the articles you copy and paste? Come on man!

[ToGoGo]

3 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

do you go through other portions of your life just trying to look for slights that arent there? he goes on to say its a flukey play and no reflection of Allens play... why bother questioning the playcall? allen was 13 of 14 in that situation up to that point. 

 

this is actually a complementary piece. your thought process on this is really odd.

 

I read Barnwell going back to Grantland. He's the same guy who pretended like the Bills didn't exist during the drought. Same vibe. Same "I'm so smart because I know advanced analytics" attitude that led to Allen being written off before he had a chance.

 

Calling it like I see it. You seem to take an attack on Bill Barnwell as an attack on you personally. That's not what I'm doing here. 

Just now, ToGoGo said:

 

I read Barnwell going back to Grantland. He's the same guy who pretended like the Bills didn't exist during the drought. Same vibe. Same "I'm so smart because I know advanced analytics" attitude that led to Allen being written off before he had a chance.

 

Calling it like I see it. You seem to take an attack on Bill Barnwell as an attack on you personally. That's not what I'm doing here. 

 

Anyways. Lots of posters are not ready to hear this about analytics guys.

 

Will back out of this thread. I'm barking up the wrong tree on this forum. That's on me. Continue on. 

[Stank_Nasty]

5 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

 

I read Barnwell going back to Grantland. He's the same guy who pretended like the Bills didn't exist during the drought. Same vibe. Same "I'm so smart because I know advanced analytics" attitude that led to Allen being written off before he had a chance.

 

Calling it like I see it. You seem to take an attack on Bill Barnwell as an attack on you personally. That's not what I'm doing here. 

no i'm seeming to think you have issues comprehending whats actually being said in the article and its really odd. its weird to me that your personal grudge against a writer is warping what you think is being said in this article. but you do you, my guy.

 

the guys raises good points about how the bills will earn a better record this year and how they were a better team than record would indicate last year and somehow you're using what he said or didnt say 5 years ago to warp it into something its not.... super odd.

Edited August 23, 2022 by Stank_Nasty

[mjt328]

Pretty good analysis.  

A lot went wrong for the Bills during the regular season.  But most of those kinks were resolved by the homestretch, and they were really hitting their peak around playoff time.  I think that we not only have a better roster in 2022, but may also be better-prepared mentally.

 

[StHustle]

So in other words….TAKE THE OVER!

[FilthyBeast]

Talk about going out on a limb here.

 

Will be interesting to see how this team responds in closer games this year and something tells me we won't have to wait long since the Rams game is likely going to be tight and decided late in the 4th quarter.

[Dat]

2 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

bro, its an article. i copy and pasted the bills section. literally supplied the link and said who wrote it in the title...... but okay... i guess...

 

Good response, but I find it short and too concise. Can you expand on this?

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

Talk about going out on a limb here.

 

Will be interesting to see how this team responds in closer games this year and something tells me we won't have to wait long since the Rams game is likely going to be tight and decided late in the 4th quarter.

Go back to the Worship of your tiny weak armed fragile toy QB that will hold your team back all season long,  you bring no value to any discussion here, good day. 

 

Go Bills!!!

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, ToGoGo said:

 

Reads like a smart guy who watched 2 Bills games last year, looks at a lot of stats, doesn't follow the team at all, but wants everyone to know that he's aware of who Ryan Bates and Spencer Brown are! Must sound very impressive to non-Bills fans. 

 

Nothing about the D-line improving? Nothing about Allen slipping on the 4th and 1 against the Titans? 

 

I stick by my Barnwell opinion. He's a smug hipster who writes well, sounds smart, but never sees the forest for the trees (or watches games). God forbid he writes a complimentary article about Allen without jamming the word "Daboll" in there somewhere as the real hero. 

 

 

Barnwell's smart as hell. Watches all the games.

 

And the article you mentioned did mention Daboll but did not mention him as the real hero or anything similar. 

 

Not that anyone has to agree with him, but he's extremely smart.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

8 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Good read on the flukey nature of a handful of last years losses for the squad and how a regression back towards the mean should naturally mean a better outcome. Interesting numbers and what i found to be a solid offseason read. A little food for thought i guess....

Does that translate to an established run game? 
 

Daboll’s biggest flaw.  Not establishing a run game other than Superman 

 

Fix that and Game over man. Game over. 

[The Dean]

11 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Good summary but too comprehensive and long.   Instead of trying to cover a myriad things already covered in other threads, maybe you should have limited yourself to the W-L record in close games and the idea of regression to the mean.

 

As for Allen, you follow the regression-to-the-mean theme again and I think it may be misapplied a bit here.  Allen tended to perform his best when the OL gave him time.  While he made some amazing plays when the OL broke down, some of his worst games statistically occurred when he was running for his life.  Allen's talent is certain.  His production will be determined by a lot of variables to include Dorsey's scheming & playcalling and - maybe even more importantly - the performance of this year's offensive line.  If the OL is as improved as we all hope it is, Allen will have his best year yet.  

 

 

Too comprehensive?  Do you prefer your analyses be less comprehensive? 

Edited August 24, 2022 by The Dean

[hondo in seattle]

10 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

Could you try to be more concise with the articles you copy and paste? Come on man!

 

Actually, years ago I got my wrist slapped once for violating site rules for posting a long article - much as the OP did.  Since then I've tried to be more concise.  When posting articles, I just post the most relevant section.  Sorry if I offended anyone.  

[Bills fan since 87]

8 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Actually, years ago I got my wrist slapped once for violating site rules for posting a long article - much as the OP did.  Since then I've tried to be more concise.  When posting articles, I just post the most relevant section.  Sorry if I offended anyone.  

 

Not sure you offended anyone but kind of made yourself look like a Karen.  Message boards can be tough.

[The Dean]

15 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Actually, years ago I got my wrist slapped once for violating site rules for posting a long article - much as the OP did.  Since then I've tried to be more concise.  When posting articles, I just post the most relevant section.  Sorry if I offended anyone.  

 

Note that he did NOT cut and paste the entire article. Just the part that pertained to the Bills.

[Reks Ryan]

“Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Star Lotulelei and Daryl Williams are all still free agents. Mario Addison and Jerry Hughes signed modest deals with the Texans. Jon Feliciano signed a one-year deal with the Giants. “

I believe Sanders and Star are all but retired.  Still it’s amazing that 7 of our key vets from recent wining teams were not sought after.  Surprised that Daryl Williams is not on a roster.  He played well late last season.   Could be a good guy to call if the injury bug strikes the O -line.

 

[MaltaBillsFan]

Does Barnwell mention the loss of Harrison Phillips?